Ballpark Figures - Week 12
Joe Williams
Subway Time
If weather permits (see below), the New York Yankees will host the New York Mets for a two-game interleague series on Monday, and this annual meeting usually just means a little more. Even though the teams do not play in the same league, they do share the same city, and it can get awfully contentious. On Monday, we'll get LHP Jason Vargas taking the baseball for the Mets, while ace RHP Masahiro Tanaka will be the starting pitcher for the home side. Vargas enters with a 2-3 record and a 3.57 ERA, and he is 1-1 with an impressive 0.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across his past three outings.
Tanaka heads into this one with a surprising 3-5 record, although he has a respectable 3.42 ERA and .297 opponent on-base percentage. He'll return for this start off of the paternity, as he will celebrate this start as a new dad. Perhaps the impending birth of a child is why he has been off the past couple of starts, coughing up four earned runs in each of his past two outings, both losses. The Yankees are just 3-5 across his past eight outings, too.
The Mets have won four of their past five outings, and they're 4-1 in the past five against right-handed starting pitchers. They're also 11-5 in the past 16 starts by Vargas. However, the Mets are also 1-4 in Vargas' past five outings against a team with a winning record, 3-8 in his past 11 while working on four days of rest and they're 1-7 in their past eight games on the road against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher. The Mets are also just 4-9 in the past 13 against winning teams and 5-12 in the past 17 on the road in interleague play.
For the Yankees, they narrowly avoided a sweep in Cleveland, grinding out a win in extras on Sunday. They're still 35-16 across the past 51 games overall. They are also 6-1 in the past seven interleague games agaisnt a left-handed starting pitcher while going 5-0 in their past five home games against teams with a losing overall mark. The Yankees are also 3-7 in Tanaka's past 10 starts on a grass surface while going 2-5 in his past seven interleague assignments.
Total bettors will likely the fact the under is 5-0-2 in the past seven starts by Vargas, and 3-0-1 in his past four against winning teams. However, the over is 6-2-1 in his past nine on the road, while going 5-2-3 in his past 10 road outings against a team with a winning record. The under is 3-1-1 in their past five overall, and 4-1-1 in the past six vs. RHP. For the Yankees, the under is 4-0-1 in the past five interleague games while going 9-2-1 in the past 12 at home. The under is also 4-1-1 in Tanaka's past six home outings and 4-0-1 across his past five interleague starts, while going 7-3 in his past 10 against NL East foes. The over has connected in each of the past four meetings in the Bronx.
Looking Ahead
Monday, June 10
The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox hook up on Monday in a battle of left-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers roll out LHP Mike Minor, who has cooled off a bit after a hot start. Texas is 2-5 across the past seven road outings, while going 4-9 in his past 13 against teams with a winning record. The Rangers are also just 1-6 across his past seven starts in Game 1 of a series.
Fort the Red Sox, they counter with LHP Chris Sale, who hasn't been his normal self this season. The Red Sox are 1-4 over his past five home outings and 1-4 in his past five vs. AL West foes. In addition, the Red Sox are just 4-9 over his past 13 starts overall. Boston has also won just four of their past 15 tries against teams with a winning overall record. However, they are 16-6 across the past 22 home game against a left-handed starting pitcher. The under is 6-1 in Minor's past seven starts, including 4-1 in the past five on the road and 5-2 in his past seven road outings against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in Sale's past four, and 6-0 in his past six against AL West teams while going 7-0 in his past seven while working on four days of rest.
Boston has been a difficult matchup for Texas, as the Rangers are 3-13 in the past 16 meetings, and 0-7 in their past seven tries in Fenway Park.
Weather Report
The weather forecast looks ominous for the Bronx, with rain chances at or around 80 percent for most of the evening. That might mean a day-night doubleheader on Tuesday between these rivals.
Rain is also in the forecast for the Diamondbacks and Phillies at 'The Vault', with chances of rain around 60 percent and showing no signs of tapering off through midnight ET. Those are the only two weather trouble spots on Monday, however.
Tuesday, June 11
The Reds heads up Interstate 71 (OK, they probably flew) for the annual Battle of Ohio interleague series at Progressive Field. Cincinnati rolls with RHP Luis Castillo against Cleveland and RHP Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati has won just two of the past seven games overall, but they're 4-1 in his past five against teams with a winning record. The Reds are 1-4 in the past five road games vs. RHP, 0-8 in the past eight against AL Central teams and just 14-39 in the past 53 on the road in interleague play.
For the Indians, they have won four straight against NL Central teams, while going 4-0 in the past four following an off day. However, they're 3-9 in the past 12 vs. RHP, and 1-6 in the past seven at home against a righty. They're also struggling with 'Bauer Outage' on the hill, going 0-4 in Bauer's past four starts, 1-5 in his past six six outings at home and 4-10 in the past 14 interleague starts. In this series the Reds are a dismal 4-17 in the past 21 trips to Cleveland while losing four straight in this series.
The Padres and Giants kick off a two-game set at Oracle Park in San Francisco, and San Diego might have the upper hand with RHP Chris Paddack. The Padres are .500 at 33-33, just like Paddack is .500 at 4-4, but he has a solid 2.97 ERA and .241 on-base percentage against while registering 66 strikeouts over just 60 2/3 innings. San Diego has won six of the past seven in Game 1 of a new series, and they're 4-1 in Paddack's past five starts against a team with a losing record. San Diego is also 14-4 in the past 18 following an off day.
The Giants counter with RHP Tyler Beede, who pitched well in Miami in his first start of the season. However, San Francisco has really struggled lately, going 1-4 in the past five overall, 1-5 in the past six inside the NL West and 1-7 in the past eight games at home. They're also 0-4 in the past four at home vs. RHP.
As far as the total, the over is 6-2-2 in San Diego's past 10 overall, and 3-1-1 in their past five vs. RHP. The under is 7-2 in Paddack's past nine, however, and the under is 4-0 in the past four divisional games, too. The over is 6-2 in the past eight home games for the Giants, but the under is 20-9-2 in the past 31 at home against righties. The under is also 6-2 in the past eight in this series, with the Padres also winning six of the past eight.
Weather Report
Wind will be the story on Tuesday. The Jays and Orioles will be contending with winds of 10-13 mph blowing in from the left-center field power alley toward home plate, knocking the ball down for right-handed power hitters. In the Bronx, winds will be blowing across the diamond from third to first at a 12-15 mph clip. Winds will also be the story in Philadelphia with 10-13 mph winds gusting in from left-center field. In Boston, the Rangers and Red Sox will also face 11-14 mph winds blowing out toward Pesky's Pole in right field. The good news is that no precipitation should ruin the day at any of the venues.
