Cnotes NFL Picks

[Cnotes53]

*Early bettors like Saints' odds for key NFL Week 16 battle vs. Steelers*
Patrick Everson

Stevan Ridley and Pittsburgh got a much-needed win over New England in Week 15. But the Steelers opened as 6.5-point Week 16 'dogs at New Orleans, with the Saints snaring some early money.

The NFL season is down to its final two weeks, with plenty of teams still playing meaningful games. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 16 contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

After a three-game SU and ATS slide, Pittsburgh needed to right the ship in Week 15 and did so as a home underdog. The Steelers (8-5-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were catching 2.5 points against New England and won outright 17-10.

Thanks to the Rams’ stunning home loss to the Eagles in the Sunday nighter, New Orleans now stands alone atop the NFC, although it still has Week 15 work to do in the Monday nighter at Carolina. The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) own the best pointspread record in the league.

“The Steelers had to beat the Patriots with this trip to New Orleans looming, and they got it done,” Murray said. “They face an uphill battle in terms of getting a bye and are clinging to the division lead. The Saints need a win too, as they are vying for home-field advantage in the NFC. This will be the most heavily bet game of the week, other than the Sunday night game (Chiefs-Seahawks).”

Murray said some early money came in on the Saints, but nothing sharp, and the line was still at New Orleans -6.5 late Sunday night.

*Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)*

Los Angeles is in the prime-time spotlight for a second straight week, this time on Saturday, after a surprising comeback victory in the Week 15 Thursday nighter. The Chargers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied from a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit, scoring a touchdown in the waning seconds, then getting a successful 2-point conversion to win 29-28.

Baltimore won four of its last five to gain ground on Pittsburgh and make things interesting in the AFC North. In Week 15, the Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) topped Tampa Bay 20-12, falling just short of cashing as 8.5-point home favorites.

“Both teams are in the thick of the AFC playoff race,” Murray said. “The Chargers are coming off a great win at Kansas City and can still secure home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. This is exactly the kind of game the Chargers have historically lost with Philip Rivers at quarterback.”

Although this line dipped to Chargers -4.5 shortly after opening, Murray said The SuperBook was moving with the market, not on money.

*Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)*

Kansas City is still the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but could’ve been in much better position if it hadn’t blown a 14-point fourth quarter lead Thursday night. The Chiefs (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) took a 28-14 lead with 8:15 remaining against the Los Angeles Chargers, then gave up two TDs. The second of those, with four seconds remaining, was followed by a 2-point conversion and K.C. fell 29-28 as 3.5-point home chalk.

Seattle was certainly trending in the right direction in making a late playoff push, but stubbed its toe in Week 15. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) were 3.5-point favorites at San Francisco, but lost outright 26-23 in overtime.

As noted above, Murray expects this Sunday night clash to be the biggest-bet game of the week.

“We opened the Chiefs -2.5, and I won’t be surprised to see this line go up during the week, especially if the Chargers beat the Ravens on Saturday night,” Murray said. “The pressure will be on the Chiefs to hold serve in the AFC West race. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are likely the No. 5 5 seed in the NFC, even with their loss today to the 49ers.”

*Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10)*

Despite working with its fourth starting quarterback this season in Josh Johnson, Washington is currently just a game out of the NFC playoff picture. The Redskins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville 16-13 as 7.5-point road pups in Week 15.

Tennessee is still in the postseason hunt, too, though like Washington is on the outside looking in. The Titans (8-6 SU and ATS) blanked the New York Giants 17-0 laying 2.5 points on the road in Week 15.

“We saw money come in right away on the Titans -10, and I cans see why,” Murray said, though he added it wasn’t enough to move off the opening number. “It’s hard to picture the Redskins’ offense with Josh Johnson at QB putting up points on the road against the Titans. Both teams are technically still in the playoff race. Expect a lot of moneyline parlays to start with Tennessee this week.”

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NO at CAR 08:15 PM

CAR +6.0

U 50.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Saints' D puts clamps on Newton in 12-9 win over Panthers
December 17, 2018
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CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) New Orleans put the clamps on Cam Newton, and the Saints beat the Carolina Panthers 12-9 on Monday night to take a big step toward locking up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

The Saints' defense, which has been among the best in the league the last six weeks, held the former MVP to 131 yards passing, sacked him four times and forced two turnovers on a night when Drew Brees and the offense couldn't get much going.

Alvin Kamara had 103 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and Brees had 203 yards passing for the Saints (12-2), who took a one-game lead in the NFC over the Rams. The Saints close the season at home against Pittsburgh and Carolina; the Rams visit Arizona and host San Francisco.

Carolina's only scores came off a trick play on fourth down - a 50-yard touchdown pass from running back Christian McCaffrey to tight end Chris Manhertz - and an interception return by Donte Jackson on a 2-point conversion attempt.

The Saints limited Carolina (6-8) to 247 yards and 13 first downs as Newton struggled throwing the ball more than 10 yards down the field with a sore right shoulder.

The Panthers have lost six straight and are all but eliminated from playoff contention. They're 1 1/2 games behind the Vikings and one game behind the Eagles and Redskins for the second NFC wild card spot with two games remaining.

The Panthers struck first after offensive coordinator Norv Turner dug into his bag of tricks.

On a fourth-and-2 from midfield, McCaffrey got a handoff, took a step toward the line, then stepped back and lofted a perfect pass over the middle to Manhertz, who was 15 yards behind the defense. Manhertz trotted into the end zone for a 50-yard touchdown and a 7-0 lead.

It was McCaffrey's first career pass attempt, although he threw two TD passes while at Stanford. He became the first non-QB to throw a TD pass in Panthers history.

The Saints responded with two field goals by Wil Lutz and appeared on the verge of taking the lead before halftime, but James Bradberry intercepted Brees' tipped pass and returned it to Saints territory. Carolina's subsequent drive ended when Eli Apple intercepted Newton in the end zone with 10 seconds left in the half.

The Panthers held the Saints in check for most of the third quarter, but the game changed when Panthers receiver D.J. Moore fumbled on an inside handoff. The Saints pounced, capping an 84-yard drive with a 16-yard TD run by Kamara to make it 12-7 early in the fourth quarter. The Saints went for 2, but Brees' toss was intercepted by Jackson, who took it back nearly 100 yards.

A fumble by Tommylee Lewis near the goal line turned into a touchback and gave Carolina one last chance to tie the game with 1:44 remaining. But the Panthers couldn't move the ball and turned it over on downs.

NATIONAL ANTHEM

Panthers safety Eric Reid continued to kneel during the national anthem to protect social and racial injustice.

McCAFFREY SETS MARK

McCaffrey broke DeAngelo Williams' single-season franchise record of 1,636 yards from scrimmage with a rush in the first quarter. He finished with 110 yards rushing and receiving.

DUBIOUS STREAK

The loss extended the Panthers' streak of never having posted back-to-back winning seasons since joining the NFL in 1995.

CAM'S CLEATS

During pregame warmups, Newton wore cleats that advertised a North Carolina winery and a picture of a broom snapped in half. Newton received a bottle of ''Jordan'' wine from Saints defensive end Cam Jordan and a broom from someone on the Saints after New Orleans swept Carolina in three games last season. Whatever message he intended to send didn't work out so well.

OLSEN UPDATE

Panthers tight end Greg Olsen had surgery on his right foot Monday, his second procedure on the foot in the last 16 months. Olsen wrote on Instagram that ''surgery went well and I am on my way towards a full recovery.''

INJURY UPDATE

Saints: Center Max Unger left the game in the first half after being evaluated for a concussion and did not return. He was replaced by Cameron Tom.

Panthers: Newton struggled with his shoulder throughout the game, forcing him to throw short passes - many of which were off the mark - even when the Panthers needed to take shots down the field. Despite the injury, coach Ron Rivera said he is not considering sitting down Newton next week.

UP NEXT

Saints: Host the Steelers on Sunday.

Panthers: Host the Falcons on Sunday.

 

[Cnotes53]

WEEK 16

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 AM Washington Redskins Tennessee Titans
1:00 AM Baltimore Ravens Los Angeles Chargers
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings Detroit Lions
1:00 PM New York Giants Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills New England Patriots
1:00 PM Green Bay Packers New York Jets
1:00 PM Houston Texans Philadelphia Eagles
4:05 PM Los Angeles Rams Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM Chicago Bears San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers New Orleans Saints
8:20 PM Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks

Monday, December 24, 2018

Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Denver Broncos Oakland Raiders


*************************


NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/17/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/16/2018 11-12-1 47.83% -11.00
12/15/2018 3-0-1 100.00% +15.00
12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............44-39-0.....53.01%.....+5.50

********************

Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/17/2018............1 - 0................+5.00......................1 - 0.................+5.00...........+10.00
12/16/2018............2 - 5................-17.50......................5 - 2................+14.00..........-3.50
12/15/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................2 - 0................+10.00.........+15.00
12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals.....................13 - 13..............-6.50....................15 - 13.............+8.50..............+2.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report
December 17, 2018
By YouWager.eu

Who's Hot and Who's Not

Week of Dec 17th

In last week's piece I touched on a few different runs going on in the NFL and Week 15's results came with a mixed bag regarding those scenarios.

Home underdogs in the NFL continued their hot stretch of play, as they went 2-0-1 ATS vs the closing line so far in Week 15, with the Steelers and 49ers winning outright. Only Carolina has yet to play in that role this week, and they'll need to stretch out the now 11-7 SU run home underdogs are on the last three weeks to essentially keep their season alive.

The Panthers also resided in the ?Not? part of last week's piece as a former NFC Super Bowl representative, and the two franchises grouped in with them managed to snap significant poor runs in Week 15.

Atlanta blew out the Cardinals basically from start to finish, while the Eagles went out to LA again and beat the Rams outright with Nick Foles back under center. It's still just a 3-16 ATS run ? with Carolina on MNF pending ? for these past Super Bowl representatives from the NFC, but with two of the three (Carolina, Philadelphia) still clinging onto playoff hopes this year, it will be interesting to see how those two squads finish the campaign.

It's on to things we can potentially use one way or another for this upcoming week, so let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

NFL Divisional games 'Over' the total: 7-3 O/U last two weeks

This streak puts tonight's New Orleans/Carolina game in it as well, but for those that prefer to look to 'unders' in division games, it hasn't been a good couple of weeks in that regard.

Late in the year when the weather turns and teams have a substantial amount of film on opponents ? especially familiar division foes ? the prevailing thought is to expect lower-scoring games as the defenses have a beat on what they need to do. A lot of the times these are return matches too between division foes since they met earlier in the year, and having first hand experience against someone never hurts. However, that hasn't been the case the past two weeks, as division matchups are on a 7-3 O/U run, with OT needed in two of those seven 'overs.'

The extra session didn't account for why those 'overs' hit, but it does hint at how tight these games tend to be between rivals down the stretch. These 10 division games have been averaging 49.5 points per contest, but for those bettors that aren't shy about playing halves, we do see more scoring coming in the final two frames (and OT) with these 10 division games averaging 25.3 points during those final 30 minutes. In the 4th quarters alone we are seeing 14.8 points scored total between division rivals, as these teams aren't scared at all about pulling out all the stops late.

So I wouldn't be shy about pulling the trigger on some second half 'over' plays when division rivals are involved, especially with six divisional matchups upcoming in Week 16.

Who's Not

NFL Non-Conference games 'Over' the total: 1-9 O/U last three weeks

For years earlier this decade, NFL games pitting an AFC team vs a NFC team always attracted 'over' money and they tended to hit at a high rate. Logically, there is less intensity and hatred in these non-conference matchups, and when games play out in that fashion, defenses tend to ?let up? some for a variety of reasons. Lack of hatred is one, but so is the lack of familiarity of what the offensive opponents would run, and typically it was the offenses that had the better day.

But during the past three weeks that hasn't been the case at all with 'unders' in non-conference games cashing at a 90% clip. The Miami/Minnesota game on Sunday was the only one to sail 'over' their respective number on a day where non-conference games in Week 15 finished with a 1-5 O/U record. Those games averaged a measly 31 points per game, as only the Tampa/Baltimore game eclipsed that average by finishing with 32 total points. Take out that Minnesota game and you've got a very anaemic average of just 25.6 points per game between non-conference foes in Week 15.

The offensive futility didn't start there though, as Week 14 and Week 13 went a combined 0-4 O/U in non-conference games with their average point totals coming in at just 39 points per game. Add it all up, and over the course of the last three weeks, non-conference games have averaged just 34.2 points per game during these past three weeks.

This is one streak that may see some regression to the mean during the final week of the season (Week 17 is all division games) as there are six different non-conference games on tap in Week 16. A few of them feature some dynamic offenses like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Houston and Kansas City, so chances are that average of 34.2 points goes up quite a bit. Whether or not it's enough to get off 'under' plays in these games remains to be seen though.

 

[Cnotes53]

Early bettors like Saints' odds for key NFL Week 16 battle vs. Steelers
Patrick Everson

Stevan Ridley and Pittsburgh got a much-needed win over New England in Week 15. But the Steelers opened as 6.5-point Week 16 'dogs at New Orleans, with the Saints snaring some early money.

The NFL season is down to its final two weeks, with plenty of teams still playing meaningful games. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 16 contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

After a three-game SU and ATS slide, Pittsburgh needed to right the ship in Week 15 and did so as a home underdog. The Steelers (8-5-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were catching 2.5 points against New England and won outright 17-10.

Thanks to the Rams? stunning home loss to the Eagles in the Sunday nighter, New Orleans now stands alone atop the NFC, although it still has Week 15 work to do in the Monday nighter at Carolina. The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) own the best pointspread record in the league.

?The Steelers had to beat the Patriots with this trip to New Orleans looming, and they got it done,? Murray said. ?They face an uphill battle in terms of getting a bye and are clinging to the division lead. The Saints need a win too, as they are vying for home-field advantage in the NFC. This will be the most heavily bet game of the week, other than the Sunday night game (Chiefs-Seahawks).?

Murray said some early money came in on the Saints, but nothing sharp, and the line was still at New Orleans -6.5 late Sunday night.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Los Angeles is in the prime-time spotlight for a second straight week, this time on Saturday, after a surprising comeback victory in the Week 15 Thursday nighter. The Chargers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied from a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit, scoring a touchdown in the waning seconds, then getting a successful 2-point conversion to win 29-28.

Baltimore won four of its last five to gain ground on Pittsburgh and make things interesting in the AFC North. In Week 15, the Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) topped Tampa Bay 20-12, falling just short of cashing as 8.5-point home favorites.

?Both teams are in the thick of the AFC playoff race,? Murray said. ?The Chargers are coming off a great win at Kansas City and can still secure home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. This is exactly the kind of game the Chargers have historically lost with Philip Rivers at quarterback.?

Although this line dipped to Chargers -4.5 shortly after opening, Murray said The SuperBook was moving with the market, not on money.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Kansas City is still the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but could?ve been in much better position if it hadn?t blown a 14-point fourth quarter lead Thursday night. The Chiefs (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) took a 28-14 lead with 8:15 remaining against the Los Angeles Chargers, then gave up two TDs. The second of those, with four seconds remaining, was followed by a 2-point conversion and K.C. fell 29-28 as 3.5-point home chalk.

Seattle was certainly trending in the right direction in making a late playoff push, but stubbed its toe in Week 15. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) were 3.5-point favorites at San Francisco, but lost outright 26-23 in overtime.

As noted above, Murray expects this Sunday night clash to be the biggest-bet game of the week.

?We opened the Chiefs -2.5, and I won?t be surprised to see this line go up during the week, especially if the Chargers beat the Ravens on Saturday night,? Murray said. ?The pressure will be on the Chiefs to hold serve in the AFC West race. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are likely the No. 5 5 seed in the NFC, even with their loss today to the 49ers.?

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10)

Despite working with its fourth starting quarterback this season in Josh Johnson, Washington is currently just a game out of the NFC playoff picture. The Redskins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville 16-13 as 7.5-point road pups in Week 15.

Tennessee is still in the postseason hunt, too, though like Washington is on the outside looking in. The Titans (8-6 SU and ATS) blanked the New York Giants 17-0 laying 2.5 points on the road in Week 15.

?We saw money come in right away on the Titans -10, and I cans see why,? Murray said, though he added it wasn?t enough to move off the opening number. ?It?s hard to picture the Redskins? offense with Josh Johnson at QB putting up points on the road against the Titans. Both teams are technically still in the playoff race. Expect a lot of moneyline parlays to start with Tennessee this week.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-8-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 141-79-2
Against the Spread 99-115-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 136-84-2
Against the Spread 110-104-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 104-117-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Eagles (+13.5, ML +600) at Rams, 30-23
Redskins (+7, ML +270) at Jaguars, 16-13
49ers (+4, ML +180) vs. Seahawks, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Falcons (-9) vs. Cardinals, 40-14
Vikings (-7.5) vs. Dolphins, 41-17
Bears (-5.5) vs. Packers, 24-17

Fly Eagles Fly

-- The Philadelphia Eagles hit the road to battle the Los Angeles Rams, and it was announced this week that QB Carson Wentz (back) is dealing with a stress fracture which requires three months of recovery. Enter QB Nick Foles, and it feels like Dec. 2017 all over again. The Eagles pulled the upset as nearly a two-touchdown underdog, posting a 30-23 win with QB Jared Goff looking like the backup, committing an egregious error late in the contest with one of the worst interceptions you'll ever see. The Eagles pounced on the miscue, took a 30-13 and hung on for the win to keep their playoff hopes very much alive.

Mining Home Covers

-- The San Francisco 49ers gained another home win, earning revenge on the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco fell 43-16 just two weeks ago in Seattle, and they entered the game just 1-3 ATS over the past four outings. However, the 49ers dumped the Denver Broncos last week by a 20-14 home win and cover as three-point 'dogs, and they're a respectable 3-1 SU/ATS in the past four home contests. They'll try and wave their magic wand in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board (55) was the New England Patriots-Pittsburgh Steelers, but it never even came close. The first quarter had a total of 14 points, but it kept going downhill from there. The Steelers managed the only points of the second quarter, a touchdown, and the third and fourth quarters each only featured one lone field goal. The second- and third-highest totals on the board, the Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5) and Philadelphia Eagles-Los Angeles Rams (52.5) each hit over the mark.

-- The lowest totals on the board were the Washington Redskins-Jacksonville Jaguars (36.5) and Detroit Lions-Buffalo Bills (39.5), and both games ended up going well 'under'. The third-lowest game, the Tennessee Titans-New York Giants (42), actually ended up going well under as well, 17-0.

-- The 'over' went 2-1 this week through the first three outings, with the Monday nighter between the New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers (50) pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 24-22 (52.2%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Dolphins RB Frank Gore (ankle) left Sunday's game in Minnesota due to a foot sprain, although X-rays were negative.

-- 49ers RB Matt Breida (ankle) left Sunday's game on the final drive against the Seattle Seahawks.

-- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) left Sunday's game on the road against Chicago and he was unable to return. WR Randall Cobb (ankle) left Sunday's game to be evaluated for concussion.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns and Bengals do battle in Cleveland, as Cincinnati looks for revenge after a 35-20 loss at home back on Nov. 25. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in the past seven road games and 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Browns are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven home outings, but they're just 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 inside the division. Cincinnati has covered four in a row at Cleveland, and the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium.

-- The Bills travel to Foxboro to battle the Patriots, who have lost back-to-back games in December for the first time since 2002. Buffalo lost a Monday nighter to New England back on Oct. 29 in western New York by a 25-6 score, as the Patriots were out of sync, but still covered a 13 1/2-point number. Buffalo is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall, and 4-10 ATS in the past 14 inside the division. New England is 5-1 ATS in the past six inside the division, and they're 37-15-2 ATS in the past 54 home games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and the road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 in this series.

-- The Falcons hit the road for Carolina, looking to stick a final nail in the coffin of the Panthers. Atlanta heads into the game 1-5 ATS in the past six overall, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven on the road. They're also 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings in Carolina, with the Falcons 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series. The home team has connected in 16 of the past 21 meetings, too. The 'under' is 8-2-1 over the past 11 meetings, while going 16-5-2 in the past 23 meetings at Bank of America Stadium.

-- The Rams are skidding a little, losers of two straight. A trip to the desert to meet the Cardinals should be the perfect medicine. L.A. is 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven games overall, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six against NFC opponents. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, and they're 8-17-1 ATS in the past 26 against winning teams. The favorite has cashed in four in a row in this series, the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings nad the road team is 6-2 ATS across the past eight in the series.

-- The Broncos and Raiders will tangle on Monday night. Denver heads in 4-1 ATS in the past five road outings, but they're just 8-17-1 ATS in the past 26 games overall. They're also just 2-6 ATS in the past eight inside the AFC West. Oakland has posted a 1-4 ATS mark in the past five overall, and they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven against AFC foes. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to the Black Hole, and 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 in this series. The favorite is also 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 22

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/22/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (11 - 3) - 12/22/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 23

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 9) at DALLAS (8 - 6) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 5) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (5 - 9) at CAROLINA (6 - 7) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 84-54 ATS (+24.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (4 - 10) at MIAMI (7 - 7) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 6) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (10 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 7) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (7 - 6 - 1) at DETROIT (5 - 9) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (5 - 8 - 1) at NY JETS (4 - 10) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (6 - 8) at CLEVELAND (6 - 7 - 1) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (11 - 3) at ARIZONA (3 - 11) - 12/23/2018, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (10 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 12/23/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 53-79 ATS (-33.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (8 - 5 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 2) - 12/23/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 79-54 ATS (+19.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (11 - 3) at SEATTLE (8 - 6) - 12/23/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (6 - 8) at OAKLAND (3 - 11) - 12/24/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 62-87 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 51-85 ATS (-42.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 145-182 ATS (-55.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 39-82 ATS (-51.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saturday, December 22

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Washington

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games
Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Chargers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Baltimore



Sunday, December 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Tampa Bay is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 23 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing NY Giants

Houston Texans
Houston is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Houston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Green Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games at home
NY Jets is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 5-18-1 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cleveland's last 20 games at home
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Carolina is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
San Francisco is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games at home
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Chicago
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Kansas City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City



Monday, December 24

Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Denver is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Denver is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Oakland is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 21 games
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

 

[Cnotes53]

Opening Line Report - Week 16
Joe Williams

There are just two weekends remaining in the National Football League regular season, and everyone is still jockeying around for playoff seeding, etc. It's going to be an outstanding finish. Happy Holidays to everyone, by the way.

Several teams found lumps of coal in their stocking in Week 14, so watch the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers, for instance, as they are either mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, or hanging on by a thread. Some teams, especially the skidding Panthers, could elect to rest star players due to nagging injuries with nothing left to play for. That's an important angle to take into consideration, so watch for news during the week.

Saturday, Dec. 22

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10, 37)

The Titans opened as 10-point favorites at all shops except for Caesars/Harrah's, which opened Tennessee at -9 1/2. However, after just a few minutes that was bet up to 10 to get in line with everyone else. There hasn't been a lot of movement on the total yet, but with QB Josh Johnson making his second straight start there isn't a lot of faith that this will be a high-scoring affair.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (OFF)

The Ravens heads into this game with a 7-3-1 ATS mark over their past 11 road games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning mark. The Bolts are coming off a huge win in Kansas City last Thursday, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. They have a lot of play for, as a potential first-round bye, and even the overall top seed in the AFC is still on the table.

Sunday, Dec. 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 46.5)

The Cowboys were blanked on the road in Indy last week, but Vegas is still a firm believer in the 'Boys. At Caesars/Harrah's, the line opened at -7, went up to -8 in the matter of a few hours, before tumbling back to -7 1/2. If you really feel strongly about a Dallas revival this week, Jerry's Nugget has Dallas at -6 1/2, while they opened the total at 46 and it dropped to 45 1/2. There is a one-point variance across the board, so shop around.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13, 45)

There is a little faith in the Bills early in the week, or doubt about the Patriots. You pick. Well, except at Westgate SuperBook which opened New England at -10 1/2, but the line quickly rose to -12 1/2 within 24 hours. Mirage-MGM and Wynn have the Pats at -13 and that line has help steady there, while Coasts saw some early money on Buffalo, pulling the line down from -13 to -12 1/2. Expect plenty of movement this week, if the first 24-36 hours is any indication.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4, 50)

The Panthers lost their sixth consecutive game on Monday night, and they're eliminated from the postseason chase for all intents and purposes. After Monday's loss there were reports QB Cam Newton (shoulder) is not 100 percent, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the team tab QB Taylor Heinicke as the starter in the final two games, perhaps seeing what he can do. Watch that closely.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-4.5, 39.5)
The Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff hunt, but they need to keep winning. They're 6-1 SU at home this season, but bettors like the Jags early on. Atlantis opened the Fish at -5, but it moved to -4 within 12 hours. Westgate has seen the line yo-yo from an open of -3 1/2 to -4 1/2, back down to -4.

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 46.5)

The Giants were blanked last weekend at home, while it was the Colts doing the blanking against the NFC East contending Cowboys. That's likely why this line is so high. There hasn't been a ton of early interest, but the money which has come in appears to be on Indy. At the Stratosphere the line moved from -9 to -9 1/2 rather quickly. If you like the Colts, check into Treasure Island, who still had the game at -8 1/2 as of Tuesday early AM.

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 45)

The first-place Texans roll into the City of Brotherly Love, and they're facing a suddenly alive Eagles team. We saw this movie before when QB Nick Foles surprised the Rams last season before kicking off an eventual Super Bowl run. Is 2018 going to be Nick Foles II: The Return of St. Nick?

Most shops opened this game at a pick 'em or with Houston laying the point. It quickly turned. Mirage-MGM opened at Texans -1 and it was flipped to Eagles -1 within seven hours. At Caesars/Harrah's, the line went from pick 'em to Philly -1 1/2. This game might see some of the biggest movement of the week.

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 43.5) at Detroit Lions

The early money is on the Vikings, as they fight for their playoff lives against the lowly Lions, who have long since been eliminated.

Westgate opened the Vikes at -4, and it quickly moved to -4 1/2 within a few minutes of open. It is now sitting at -5 1/2, getting in line with most other shops. Caesars and Mirage are still sitting at -5 for now, if you love the Vikings. But act fast.

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (PK, 44)

The Packers were mathematically eliminated from the NFC playoff picture last week, and the Jets are extremely banged up and limping to the finish line. It will be interesting to see who is actually starting on both sides of the football this weekend.

Atlantis opened the Jets at -2, but the early money flowed in on the Packers, going to -1 within an hour and a half, and to a pick 'em within two hours. William Hill has been seeing a lot of action on this game, opening with the Pack -3, going down to -1 by Monday morning, and then up to Jets -2 by midday before settling back at -1. The total saw a lot of movement, too, opening at 45 before tumbling to 43 1/2.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7, 45)

This Batte of Ohio features the Browns still mathematically alive less than a week until Christmas. It's been a while since the fans on the shores of Lake Erie could say that.

Cleveland won 35-20 in the first meeting in Cincinnati, and they'll be facing a Bengals team which is pretty much dead in the AFC race. Vegas has them installed as a touchdown favorite nearly everywhere, although Caesars/Harrah's and TI still have Cleveland at -6 1/2 for now.

Los Angeles Rams (-14, 47.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Rams have stumbled on offense the past two weekends, losing at Chicago and home against Philly, and suddenly there are some doubts about their championship chances.

Most shops have the Rams as a healthy two-touchdown favorite, although Jerry's Nugget is offering them up at just -13. The Wynn opened this line higher than most, sitting at 48 with little movement so far.

Chicago Bears (-4, 42.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have been a fly in the ointment in Santa Clara, just ask the Broncos and Seahawks who left with damaging L's. The early money has been on the Bears, opening at the Strat at -3 1/2 and moving to -4. Westgate has seen a lot of movement, opening at -5, before slipping to -3 1/2, back up to -4 and then back to -3 1/2 again. It looks like there is a lot of belief in the Niners after their 3-1 ATS run in the past four home outings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6, 57)

The Steelers won a huge game at home against the Patriots last week, while the Saints grinded out an ugly 12-9 win in Carolina on Monday night. Will the short week favor the visitors? Well, the early money offshore at BetOnline.ag is on the Steelers, as the game opened at -7 and slipped to -6.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 53) at Seattle Seahawks

Both of these teams are coming off losses, and the Chiefs can ill-afford another if they want to stay on the perch in the AFC. A loss might mean an extra playoff game and no bye week to rest. Surprisingly there has been very little movement on this line, sitting at -2 1/2 at most shops. TI is offering up the Chiefs at -2 if you really love them.

The total varies from shop to shop, as high as 54 at Wynn, and 53 at Caesars, Golden Nugget, the Strat and Westgate, among others.

Monday, Dec. 24

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44.5) at Oakland Raiders

There hasn't been a lot of early action on this game, opening at -2 1/2 at most shops in favor of the skidding Broncos. If you like the Raiders, you can catch at extra half-point at TI, with Denver favored by -3 there. The total has received a little attention, moving from 44 1/2 to 45 at Coasts. Westgate has the total at 44, if you like the 'over', and the line has toggled between -3 and -2 1/2 foir the past day.

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



NO IR FOR WENTZ

Eagles coach Doug Pederson confirmed that Nick Foles will continue to start for Philadelphia in Week 16, even though the team is not sending Carson Wentz to the injured reserve. The Eagles are still in the playoff hunt after their win over the Rams and were aided by Carolina?s loss. They face another must-win on Sunday as they host the red-hot Houston Texans.

Foles was solid on Sunday night, completing 24-of-31 passes for 270 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Though not reflected in the box score, he did look calm and confident all night, making key throws when needed ? which is what should be expected from the 2017 Super Bowl MVP.

The Texans head to Philly as winners of 10 of their last 11 and with a defense ranked eighth in overall DVOA, but the truth is they are vulnerable to the pass. Houston ranks just 16th in passing DVOA and 26th in passing yards against per game (258.3). The Texans most recently allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 253 yards (his third-highest output of the season), while Andrew Luck threw for 399 yards in Week 14 and Baker Mayfield 397 yards in Week 13. Foles has proven clutch over the past year and we expect him to deliver in another must-win on Sunday against a defense that gives up chunks of passing yards. Take the Over on his passing yards total.


GORDON ON TRACK

L.A. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn hinted that Melvin Gordon would be ready to return on Saturday as the Chargers host the Ravens. ?If we would have played that game on Sunday, he probably would have played," Lynn told the media on Monday.

Assuming no setbacks in practice this week, Gordon will make his return in a very tough spot against Baltimore defense ranked second in DVOA and sixth against the run. The Ravens are allowing just 87.6 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry, although they are coming off a game where Peyton Barber gashed them for 85 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries (4.5 YPC). The Chargers average 25.2 rushing attempts per game, but Melvin Gordon is averaging just 15.3 of those. We wouldn?t expect him to surpass his season average in a game coming back from a knee injury, meaning 13-15 carries is probably realistic. If we take the average of Gordon?s yards per carry (5.3) and Baltimore?s 3.8 yards allowed per carry, we get 4.55. Multiply that by 14 attempts and we land at a projected 63.7 yards. That?s our buy price for Gordon?s total this week, so take the Under if the total is set above that, and vice versa for the Over.


SMITH?S SEASON OVER

Falcons running back Ito Smith will go under the knife this week after he suffered a knee injury on Sunday and is done for the season. Presumably, this leaves Tevin Coleman to do the brunt of the running back duties for the rest of the season, including on Sunday at Carolina. However, we assumed this would be the case when Devonta Freeman went down with an injury earlier in the season and that?s when Smith stepped in with a role. It?s entirely possible that Brian Hill carves out a few carries in Week 16, especially Atlanta?s season done.

Even if he does get a few more carries than usual, Coleman will be in for a tough matchup against a Panthers defense ranked eighth against the rush in DVOA (but 29th against the pass). Carolina is averaging just 4.2 yards against per carry, though it did allow both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to get above that mark last night as Ingram ran for 5.3 yards per carry and Kamara 4.8. Both Saints runners? stat lines were fueled by a long run, however, and both are superior running backs to Coleman. We expect Coleman?s rushing yards total to be inflated after his 145-yard performance in Week 15 and we?re taking the Under for Week 16.


GORE SPRAINS FOOT

Miami will be without running back Frank Gore on Sunday as he suffered a sprained foot in Week 15 and will miss the final two games. As recently as just a few games ago, we could?ve assumed that Kenyan Drake would move forward as the feature back but that is far from the case for Week 16. Drake saw just one carry and three receptions on Sunday as Kalen Ballage was the lead back after Gore went down, turning 12 carries into 123 yards and a touchdown. There was some speculation that Drake had a shoulder issue, but coach Adam Gase squashed that on Monday, saying Drake?s limited role was not injury related.

Moving forward, we?re simply guessing as to how Miami?s backfield will shake out. Drake is the more talented back and has been operating in a timeshare for most of the season, so it?s entirely possible that his Week 15 usage was disciplinary related ? late for practice or a missed curfew, perhaps. We?ll continue to monitor this situation throughout the week but for now, the Dolphins? backfield is one to avoid from a betting perspective.


FOURNETTE?S FOOT PROBLEM

Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will be limited in practice all week as he battles a foot injury. This could perhaps explain why Fournette received just 11 touches ? and just one in the second half ? against Washington last week, although Fournette told the media after the game that his limited usage was ?the game plan coming in? as the team wanted to see what undrafted rookie David Williams could do.

This is another situation that will have to be monitored throughout the week but if Fournette is active at Miami on Sunday we?ll be looking to fade him. With the Jaguars? season long over, there is just no reason to risk further injury to their franchise player. It doesn?t sound like Fournette?s injury is all that serious, which could lead to a situation where he suits up just because he?s able to but gets limited carries to reduce the risk of further injury. We?re going to tread lightly as Miami is a solid matchup for running backs as it allows 145.2 rushing yards per game, but we?ll be looking to take the Under on Fournette?s rushing yards total in thinking that he won?t be heavily involved in the game plan.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t1. Bears 10-4 ATS
t1. Saints 10-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-4-2 ATS
4. Browns 9-5 ATS
5. Chiefs 8-5-1 ATS
t6. 7 teams tied at 8-6 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions)


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

32. Falcons 4-10 ATS
31. Jaguars 4-8-2 ATS
t27. Raider 5-9 ATS
t27. 49ers 5-9 ATS
t27. Bills 5-9 ATS
t27. Eagles 5-9 ATS
t24. 3 teams tied at 5-8-1 ATS (Jets, Packers, Rams)


NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 9-4-1
2. Jets 9-5
3. Bengals 8-5-1
t4. Falcons 8-6
t4. Bears 8-6
t4. Chargers 8-6
t4. 49ers 8-6
t4. Bucs 8-6


NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 10-3-1
t2. Patriots 9-5
t2. Saints 9-5
t4. 13 teams tied at 8-6 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, Jags, Vikings, Eagles, Titans, Redskins)

 

[Cnotes53]

Games to Watch - Week 16

We are going to need to wait until the final week of the season to see which 12 teams will be in the playoffs this season, but the picture should become a little clearer this weekend. We have several games on the NFL Week 16 schedule that are going to have a huge impact on the final standings, with a few teams probably seeing their playoff dreams die this weekend.

There are a lot of games that we could focus on this week, but we have chosen to narrow it down to four of the best.

Let?s take a closer look at four games we really like in Week 16 of the NFL season.

Baltimore Ravens (+4? -105) at Los Angeles Chargers (-4? -115)

For a moment last Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens were sitting on top of the NFC North and in prime playoff position, but by the time this game rolls around on Saturday, they may well find themselves below the playoff line if Tennessee beats Washington in the earlier game. The bad news for Baltimore is that they are on the road to a Chargers team that still has a clear shot at a first round bye, so they can expect no favors from their hosts in this one. The Chargers are 5-2 at home, while the Ravens have a losing road record, all of which adds up to a win for LA.


Houston Texans (+1 -110) at Philadelphia Eagles (-1 -110)

It appears as though the defending Super Bowl champions are not going to go down without a fight after all. There are certainly comparisons to be drawn to their late season run last year, with Nick Foles back under center and leading his team to a very unlikely win over the LA Rams last weekend. The Eagles are still below the playoff line, though, which means they probably need to win out and get some help along the way. They are in tough against a Houston team currently holding the #2 seed in the AFC. This has all the makings of a coin flip game to me, but I am going to have my coin land on the Texans, but only just.


Pittsburgh Steelers (+6 -110) at New Orleans Saints (-6 -110)

With a loss to the New England Patriots last weekend, the Steelers would have dropped all the way down to the #8 spot in the AFC, which would have made a playoff appearance quite unlikely. Instead, they came away with a 17-10 win in a game that was a good deal more lopsided than the final score suggests. The Steelers need to find some more magic this weekend with a tough trip the Big Easy. The Saints have slowed down a little in the past few weeks, but they are still grinding out wins. This should be a fantastic battle that I believe the Steelers might edge.


Kansas City Chiefs (-2? -110) at Seattle Seahawks (+2? -110)

Yet another game with massive playoff implications for both teams. The Chiefs are in good shape at the top of the standings in the AFC, but a loss here could drop them all the way down to the #3 or #4 spot, especially if the Chargers win on Saturday. This is no easy trip, though, as we all know just how tough Seattle can be in their own building. They are 4-2 there this season and really need a win to keep the chasing pack at bay in the NFC playoff race. Another close one here, and while I am currently leaning towards KC, that may change as the week progresses. I am flip-flopping here.

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



NEWTON TO BE SHUT DOWN?

The Panthers are a game and a half out of the playoffs after their Monday night loss to New Orleans, putting their chances of reaching the postseason at slim to none (well, five percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.com). Speaking on Tuesday, coach Ron Rivera did not rule out the possibility of shutting down Cam Newton due to the shoulder injury that has clearly been hindering him. Rivera said he?ll meet with Newton later in the week to evaluate him ?in terms of his physical state and mental state.?

Should Newton get shut down, the Panthers would turn to Taylor Heinicke. The fourth-year quarterback out of Old Dominion has never made an NFL start but has appeared in six games with five pass attempts ? most of which have been this season where he has been attempting Hail Marys because Newton hasn?t been able to.

The Panthers host the Falcons on Sunday and although that wouldn't be a difficult matchup from a statistical point of view, we?d be looking to fade him in his NFL debut. The Panthers? team total is currently available at 24.5 and we?d recommend taking the Under right now if you think Newton will sit as it will certainly dip if Heinicke is named the starter.


RODGERS TOO?

Aaron Rodgers hurt his groin against Chicago on Sunday, though it isn't considered overly serious. Rodgers could be seen stretching it out at times on the sideline during the game and told reporters afterward that ?[my groin] bothered me a little bit.?

There?s also the knee issue that has been bothering him all season, causing some ? including the betting market ? to speculate that Rodgers will be shut down. The line for Sunday?s game against the Jets opened at Green Bay -3 and shifted all the way to New York -1.5, though it has since leveled off to a pick ?em.

Philbin, however, seemed to indicate that Rodgers will play if able. He told reporters that ?my philosophy is football players are paid to play football games? and ?that's my general philosophy and overall philosophy whether it's Aaron Rodgers or anybody else.?

We also know Rodgers is the ultimate competitor and will be on the field unless told not to by the medical staff. He was able to finish Sunday?s game without issue, so we?re expecting a week of limited practices and for him to be on the field Sunday in New York. This line is likely to tick back a bit in Green Bay?s favor if it?s announced that Rodgers will play, so it could be a good time to jump on the Packers at a pick ?em.


THE OTHER AARON IN GB IS DEFINITELY DONE FOR THE YEAR

In sticking with news out of Green Bay, Aaron Jones? exciting second-year season is finished after the Packers sent him to injured reserve because of a sprained MCL suffered in Week 15. Jones was electric in 2018, posting 5.5 yards per carry and will certainly be one of the top running backs in the league in 2019.

Jamaal Williams takes over as the lead back for the remainder of the season with Kapri Bibbs backing him up. The Packers visit the Jets on Sunday afternoon, which is not a terrible matchup against a New York defense ranked 20th in rushing DVOA. Williams had a solid day in relief of Jones last week, posting 55 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries and 42 additional yards through the air on four receptions ? and that was against a Bears defense ranked first in DVOA.

In two games under coach Joe Philbin, the Packers have run the ball 19 and 25 times, meaning Williams should be in for a decent workload on Sunday. Williams has run for just 3.7 yards per carry on the season but has posted 4.3 and 4.6 yards per carry over his last two. The Jets are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. We?re projecting 17 carries for Williams and a modest 4.3 yards per carry, putting the buy price at 73.1 yards. Take the Over if his rushing yards total is set below that when the markets open up later in the week.


BILLS RB ISSUES CONTINUE

Buffalo placed running back Marcus Murphy on injured reserve on Tuesday after he suffered a dislocated elbow in Week 15. Murphy was the starter against Detroit as both LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Chris Ivory (shoulder) sat out. This leaves Keith Ford as the only healthy back on the Bills? roster. The undrafted rookie out of Texas A&M ran for 46 yards on 14 attempts against the Lions in a game where the Bills were held to just 3.2 yards per carry.

The Bills head to New England on Sunday as a 13-point underdog in what has suddenly become a must win for the Patriots.

Neither McCoy or Ivory have been ruled out as of yet and there?s a chance that one, or both, could suit up as both were late scratches last week. The matchup won?t be bad for whoever gets carries on Sunday as the Pats rank 21st in rushing DVOA and are allowing a league-high five yards per carry, but we?ll need to take a wait-and-see approach to see who will be getting carries in Week 16.

 

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



GORDON LEAVES PATRIOTS

Josh Gordon announced early Wednesday that he is ?stepping away from the football field for a bit to focus on my mental health.? There are also reports that he is facing yet another indefinite suspension from the league for violating the terms of his reinstatement. It?s possible Gordon has played his final snap in the NFL, but at this point, it?s about more than football for him. We wish him the best in his recovery.

New England hosts Buffalo on Sunday as a 13-point favorite and will use some combination of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett at receiver. Even with Gordon in the mix, this was always going to be a game where we were looking to back Edelman. Brady?s most trusted target is on a tear of late, with receiving lines of 7-90-0 and 9-86-1 over his last two games on 23 total targets. Those target numbers should only increase with Gordon out of the mix and we?re expecting another big game from Edelman in a game where the Patriots will likely keep their foot on the gas all afternoon in a must-win. Take the Over on Edelman?s receiving yards total.


KEENAN KEEN TO GET BACK

Reports on Thursday morning are that Keenan Allen is expected to return to the lineup on Saturday night as the Chargers host the Ravens. He has been trending in that direction after a limited practice session on Wednesday. Assuming he suits up in Week 16, Allen will have not missed any games, even though he was knocked out of the Chargers? last contest in the first quarter.

Allen will return to a very difficult matchup against a Baltimore defense ranked second in passing DVOA. They were eaten up for 121 yards by Mike Evans last week, but digging a bit deeper we see that 64 of those yards came on one big play and that Evans only hauled in 4-of-9 targets. There?s also the fact that he won?t be at 100 percent and an awkward fall on his hip could cause him a few snaps or even get him shut down once again.

There?s no denying that Allen has been one of the hottest wide receivers in football, averaging 7.8 catches for 94.6 yards per game since L.A.?s bye in Week 8 if you don?t include Week 15 where he exited very early on. This is looking like a situation to avoid for Week 16 until we get a better sense of just how healthy (or hurt) Allen is.


CONNER STILL SITS

James Conner returned to the practice field on Wednesday but basically just watched from the sideline, confirming that he?s ?still not ready?. This means rookie Jaylen Samuels gets another start on Sunday as the Steelers travel to New Orleans. Samuels has played 71 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks and has done his damage in different ways. Two weeks ago, he excelled through the air, posting seven receptions for 64 yards, while last week it was on the ground, with 19 carries for 142 yards.

On Sunday, Samuels faces his toughest test yet in New Orleans and this is likely a game where he does his damage through the receiving game, much like he did against the Raiders two weeks ago. The Saints boast the league?s best run defense, allowing just 53 rushing yards per game to running backs, but have given up six or more receptions to a running back on four different occasions so far this season, including Christian McCaffrey?s 8-67 line last week.

This game should see its fair share of points with a total of 53 and Samuels will be involved. Take the Over on his receptions total and think about doubling-down with the Over on his receiving yards total.


GURLEY GOOD TO GO?

Rams running back Todd Gurley (knee) missed practice on Wednesday but coach Sean McVay did say afterward that he expects his top offensive weapon on the field on Sunday at Arizona. Assuming he suits up, he?ll be in a dream matchup against a Cardinals defense allowing 144.9 rushing yards per game, second-most in the NFL. Arizona was scorched last week for 145 yards on 11 carries by Tevin Coleman, while Ito Smith added 34 yards on nine carries.

This is clearly a position to back Gurley at full health but there is a legitimate chance that he doesn?t get a full complement of snaps in a game where the Rams can win without him. Even if he does get the start, there?s the risk of Gurley resting late in the game if the Rams have a big lead, which is entirely possible as a 14-point road favorite. We?ll be monitoring the news cycle but as of today, we?re leaning towards fading Gurley, especially if his rushing yards total is set north of 80 yards.


TANNEHILL BANGED UP

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill was limited at Wednesday?s practice with shoulder and ankle injuries after taking an absolute beating at Minnesota last weekend, getting sacked nine times for a loss of 71 yards. We got a winner by fading Tannehill?s passing yards total last week as we suggested he would come crashing down to earth from a stats perspective and we fully expect that to happen once again in Week 16.

Tannehill and the Dolphins host Jacksonville on Sunday and, even though the Jaguars have had a disastrous season, they still rank fifth in DVOA and seventh against the pass. Over the last two weeks, the Jags have given up 151 and 162 passing yards to Josh Johnson and Marcus Mariota. They also shut out Andrew Luck three weeks ago, though he was able to throw for 248 yards on 52 passing attempts.

Even though Tannehill has had a successful year from a passer-rating standpoint (100.6), he has still thrown for 185 or fewer yards in five of his nine starts this season. We?re expecting a sixth on Sunday and backing the Under on his passing yards total.

 

[Udog]

NFL Underdogs: Week 16 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Everyone has their favorite Christmas movies, and for me I?m a sucker for any film variation of Charles Dickens?, ?A Christmas Carol?. Give me Muppets and Michael Caine, a CG Jim Carey, or best of all Bill Murray, and have that stingy ole bastard get scared straight by spectral spirits on Christmas Eve - I?m in.

Speaking of Scrooges, I dropped a 0-3 lump of coal in our stockings last week, so some divine intervention could be called for. And with that, NFL Underdogs will be visited by three ghosts, helping us handicap the NFL Week 16 pointspreads and uncover the best bets getting the points this weekend?
?Who, and what are you?? Scrooge demanded. ?I am the Ghost of Christmas Past.?

Getting stuck in the past can cripple you as a sports bettor. The dreaded ?recency bias? can make you blind beyond what you just witnessed, and in the case of the Giants and Colts, we just watched New York eat a big stinky goose egg from Tennessee and Indianapolis post a clean sheet versus the Cowboys. That?s why books are dealing the G-Men as big as 10-point pups in Indy this Sunday.

However, if you?re able to look beyond that 17-0 shutout in Week 15, you?ll see a New York team playing solid football. Since a bye in Week 9, the Giants are 4-1-1 ATS. The offense, which was stuck in a low gear most of the season, was averaging 31.4 points per game in the five contests before last Sunday. Missing Odell Beckham Jr. isn't great (still up in the air for Sunday) but this team has played - and scored - without him.

New York is the best road bet in the NFC at 6-1 ATS, with an average margin of plus-2.6 in its seven road games, compared to minus-8.5 at home. The Giants find Indianapolis in a tough situational spot: coming off a huge win over Dallas and looking at a possible AFC South showdown with Tennessee ? if they win this game - to see who earns a wild card ticket to the postseason.

I don?t think the Giants pull off the upset, but they?re definitely not 10 points worse than the Colts at this time.

Pick: N.Y. Giants +10


?Come in! and know me better, man! I am the Ghost of Christmas Present,? said the Spirit. ?Look upon me!?

Presently, 60 percent of bets sit on the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. And presently, NFL pundits and betting analysts are quick to point out that since taking over as the No. 1 QB for the Ravens, rookie Lamar Jackson has faced defenses ranked 32nd, 31st, 28th, 26th, and 24th. And presently, the Chargers are riding a four-game winning streak with a 3-1 ATS mark in that span, including road wins over the Steelers and Chiefs.

And presently, I don?t give a crap about those things.

I?ve been wary of L.A. all season, especially that defense. The Bolts are giving up just 21.5 points per home game, but have played scoring offenses ranked 32nd, 27th, 24th, 22nd, 21st, and 14th (a shell of the Bengals offense in Week 14) as hosts this season (they gave up 38 points to KC at home in Week 1). And a big part of that defensive success hasn?t been due to the stop unit at all.

Los Angeles runs one of the most methodical offenses in the league, running an average of just 59.5 plays per game (third lowest) and chewing up 31:02 per game in time of possession. That ball-hogging playbook is even stingier at home, where the Chargers lead the NFL in home TOP at 33:40.

Enter Jackson and the Ravens, who average more than 36 minutes in time of possession since going all in on the run game with the former Heisman winner at the wheel.

That?s helped the defense limit foes to just 18.6 points per game during that stretch, but unlike the Chargers, Baltimore?s defense isn?t dependent on the offense to limit their exposure (were allowing 17.7 ppg in the nine games before the shift to Jackson).

Presently, I?m grabbing the points with the Ravens Saturday night.

Pick: Baltimore +4.5


?I am in the presence of the Ghost of Christmas Yet To Come?" The Spirit answered not, but pointed onward with its hand.

The L.A. Rams have big plans for the future, most notably a deep run into the postseason. And in order for those plans to come to fruition, Los Angeles is going to need RB Todd Gurley and other key players as close to 100 percent as the football gods allow in December.

That means pumping the breaks a bit in the final two games of the season, including a Week 16 date in Arizona. Earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC is a mathematical miracle, leaving head coach Sean McVay to be careful with his first teamers rather than chasing the Saints in the conference standings.

I see McVay going all out in the opening half versus Arizona, building a big lead and then periodically peeling back the depth chart to reduce the risk of wear and tear on his starters. Los Angeles has shown a tendency to leave the backdoor open for opposing teams and has covered the spread only once in its last seven games.

On top of that, the Cardinals just picked up former Rams return man Pharoh Cooper off waivers, and the fact that Cooper could relay some inside intel to his new coaches isn?t lost on McVay.

"Yeah, there are certainly some different things that I'm sure Pharoh could share," McVay told reporters.

Perhaps Cooper can show Arizona the future ? and hopefully that future contains the Cardinals covering the 16 points.

Pick: Arizona +16

Last week: 0-3 ATS
Season: 28-16-1 ATS

 

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



JOSEPH ON THE WAY OUT?

A ProFootballTalk report on Wednesday suggests that Broncos head coach Vance Joseph will be fired at the end of the season. Joseph?s record sits at 11-19 as he nears the end of his second season with Denver, though it is tough to win when your quarterbacks have been Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, and Case Keenum.

Denver travels to Oakland on Monday night as a 3-point favorite and with a game total of 43 and we?re looking to back the Raiders. A big factor here that isn?t being talked about much is that this is quite possibly the final game for the Raiders in Oakland. They aren?t moving to Las Vegas until 2020 but they do not have a lease to play anywhere in 2019. There is a chance that the Raiders return to Oakland for one more season but that is far from a done deal. We?re thinking the Broncos could be lacking motivation by knowing their coach is on the way out and that the Raiders should be fired up for what could be their final game in Oakland and we?re backing the Raiders at plus-3.


ENGRAM HOT WITHOUT OBJ

Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. missed practice yesterday and on Wednesday and looks like he?ll miss his third straight game on Sunday as the Giants visit the Colts. Tight end Evan Engram has really benefited from Beckham?s absence, posting receiving yards totals of 66, 77, and 75 over the last three games, including last week?s eight-catch performance on 12 targets in the rain against the Titans. Looking back a bit further, we see that Engram is averaging 7.9 targets in the 13 games he has played without Beckham and has turned them into 4.6 receptions for 55.2 yards.

The Colts are a solid matchup for opposing tight ends, ranking 23rd against the position in allowing 7.9 passes per game and 74.7 receiving yards. Indianapolis? opponents are also targeting their tight ends 24.2 percent of the time, which is the third-highest rate in the league. Follow Covers? Twitter feed for an official announcement on OBJ but we?ll be looking to take the Over on Engram?s receiving yards total if and when he is ruled out.


MACK ATTACK

In sticking with the Giants-Colts matchup on Sunday, running back Marlon Mack looks like he could be in for a huge game. Mack?s stock was starting to fade but came shooting back up with his 27-139-2 rushing line against a very difficult Cowboys rush defense last week. This week, he faces a much easier task against a Giants rush defense that is giving up 152.7 total yards to opposing running backs. New York was scorched for 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries by Derrick Henry last week. We?re ignoring Week 14 where Washington didn?t run the ball after the Giants had jumped out to a huge lead, but three weeks ago Chicago?s backfield combined for 106 rushing yards on 24 carries and Tarik Cohen posted 12 receptions for 156 yards. Game script should also be in Mack?s favor as a 9-point home favorite and we?re taking the Over 69.5 on his rushing yards total.


BOYD STILL NOT PRACTICING

Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd did not practice on Thursday and still hasn?t returned to the field after suffering a sprained MCL on Sunday. He hasn?t officially been ruled out yet but seems a safe bet to miss the rest of the season. This is bad news for quarterback Jeff Driskel and the rest of the Bengals? offense.

Boyd has had an impressive breakout season with 76 catches for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns. Driskel found an immediate connection with Boyd, connecting on 18 of the 24 passes he has thrown in Boyd?s direction for a completion rate of 75 percent. It hasn?t quite been the same with any other Bengals? pass catcher as Driskel is just 62 of 106 for a 58.5 completion rate to all other targets. This week, Driskel goes on the road to face a Browns pass defense ranked sixth in passing DVOA. He faced the Browns in his first start back in Week 12 and threw for just 155 yards. Take the Under on his passing yards total of 187.5.


JUJU LEAVES PRACTICE

Steelers receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a groin injury on practice on Thursday and was forced to sit out the rest of the session. This is bad news for the Steelers who play a crucial game on Sunday at New Orleans. Pittsburgh currently has a half-game lead over Baltimore atop the AFC North and Sunday?s game basically becomes a must-win if Baltimore beats the Chargers on Saturday. Receiver James Washington mentioned to reporters after practice that he expects JuJu on the field on Sunday and we assume he will be as well, especially considering the nature of the game.

Should Smith-Schuster suit up on Sunday, he?s in a great situation to continue his hot run. Since Week 11, JuJu leads the entire NFL in targets with 58 which has resulted in 7.8 catches for 102.4 receiving yards per game. He?s also one of the top road receivers in the game, posting lines of 8-130-2, 13-89-1, and 8-104-0 in his last three. Also promising is that Smith-Schuster ran 63 percent of his routes from the slot last week against New England, which, if that trend continues, should get him away from Saints? corners Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple. Monitor his health over the coming days but we?ll be looking to take the Over on his receiving yards total if he suits up and appears to be near 100 percent.

 

[Udog]

NFL INJURY UPDATE

Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. has been ruled OUT for Sunday's game against Colts.
Current Odds:
Colts: -9
Total: 48


Bengals WR Tyler Boyd has been ruled OUT for their matchup against Browns.
Current Odds:
Browns: -9.5
Total: 44

 

[Udog]

NFL INJURY UPDATE

Falcons WR Julio Jones (Hip, Ribs) will be a gametime decision for their matchup against Panthers
Current odds:
Falcons: -3
Total: 44

 

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Game of the Night - Baltimore at L.A. Chargers (-4, 41.5), NFLN, 8:20 ET

The NFL has had a decent run on primetime games of late. Even last Saturday?s Browns-Broncos game at least managed to come down to the wire. Matchups like this one, where both teams still have division titles in their sights as Week 16 begins, are the dream.

It remains to be seen how vivid this one is, but there?s certainly potential that we could see something special given the implications for both. The Ravens would make the playoffs if they started today, but their grip on a spot is tenuous given the number of teams behind them with more favorable schedules.

The Chargers share the AFC?s top record with division-mate Kansas City, which would emerge with the No. 1 seed in the conference due to a better divisional mark if the teams remain tied. All L.A. can do is win out and hope the Seahawks give them some help on Sunday night since it?s unrealistic that the Raiders would pull an upset in Arrowhead in Week 17.

The return of top running back Melvin Gordon tells you how seriously the Chargers are taking this one since he?ll suit up for the first time since Nov. 25. L.A. is a perfect 3-0 without him, but there?s no question he affords the offense a significant upgrade with his skill set. He?s found the end zone 10 times in 13 games and re-establishes a short passing game that was missing last week since backup Austin Ekeler, who performed impressively in Gordon?s absence, was also sidelined with a shoulder stinger against the Chiefs.

Ekeler remains out for the Chargers, so rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome will return to backup roles. It?s incredible that L.A. finds itself in this position considering they?ve ran through the Steelers, Bengals and Chiefs despite being short-handed since elite receiver Keenan Allen has been absent with a hip injury and top defensive tackle Brandon Mebane was away due to a personal matter.

Everybody is back to join Philip Rivers on a rollercoaster ride that has featured plenty of low points but has somehow managed to come to successful stops on nine of their last 10 trips. The resume looks impressive since L.A. has managed to overcome absolutely no homefield advantage outside of players being able to sleep in their own beds, which is why two of their three losses have come in their temporary home in Carson. L.A. lost to the Chiefs in Week 1, at the Rams in Week 3 and back on Nov. 18 in a 23-22 loss to the Broncos that may wind up being the reason the AFC playoffs go through Kansas City and not the home of the L.A. Galaxy from the MLS.

That wrinkle makes this a slightly more manageable road trip for a Ravens teams that finds itself clear across the country on their longest journey of the season. Baltimore can count on some representation that you will probably be able to hear among the collective indifference whenever they make a big play. Lamar Jackson held up well at Arrowhead in nearly producing an upset in his only road start so far, a 27-24 loss on Dec. 9. Baltimore is going to look to keep things simple for him and control possession, so the formula that has yielded victories in four of games remains in place. Joe Flacco, now healthy, has been relegated to a backup role behind the rookie. Since the organization rewarded John Harbaugh with a one-year extension with an eye towards a long-term agreement, it?s clear everyone is on the same page with this transition.

Jackson has ran for at least 67 yards in five straight games and is now the Ravens? leading rusher, but lost a fumble last week against the Bucs in a 20-12 sweat of a victory. The Chargers strength on the defensive end lies up front and may be mitigated some by Jackson?s speed and a short passing game that may limit Joey Bosa?s impact as a pass-rusher.

Weekly ?Total Talk? writer Chris David offered up his thoughts on how this contrast in styles may play out.

?The oddsmakers are expecting the nightcap between the Ravens and Chargers to be a grinder and it?s hard to disagree when you look at Baltimore?s defense, which leads the league in scoring defense (18.1 PPG) and total defense with 290.1 yards per game,? said David. ?Los Angeles isn?t far behind, ranked ninth in scoring (21.3 PPG) and eighth in total yards (329.1) and does boast the fourth-best scoring offense (28.2 PPG) in the league but Baltimore?s blueprint for success under the rookie QB has been grinding the clock and keeping great attacks off the field. It did it successfully against Kansas City in Week 13. Outside of the Chiefs, the Ravens haven?t faced a formidable opponent and this is definitely a step-up in class.

?For those of you following my weekly installments, I?m sure you?ve read about the ?Coast to Coast? angle that I?ve tracked. The ?over? is 12-6-1 in these games and it focuses on matchups where a team from the Eastern Time Zone plays in the Pacific Time Zone and vice versa. This will be the first trip for the Ravens to the West Coast and while I?m not a big fan of their ground-and-pound style, the Bolts are weak up the middle and they could exploit the L.A. defense.?

The Chargers have allowed 21 or more points in four of five and have forced just two turnovers, so this game may produce points if the Ravens can finish drives with touchdowns instead of field-goal attempts. Temperatures will be in the high 50s with winds not a factor, so the weather we?ll be an asset to the ?over.?

?I believe Baltimore will have an opportunity to get four to five scores in this game, especially with the best kicker in the game,? said David in offering up his top pick. ?If they can convert a couple into touchdowns, their Team Total (19 ?) has a great shot to connect on Saturday.?


Game of the Day -- Washington at Tennessee (-10, 37.5), NFLN, 4:30 ET

The Titans and Redskins are each in the mix of playoff hopefuls in their respective conferences, but this line doesn?t hide the fact only one is considered a threat to do so.

Washington is working with its fourth starting quarterback of the season and finds itself at .500 thanks to the work of a defense that continues to chop wood. The Titans had some shaky moments in attempting to work around a banged-up Marcus Mariota all season but have had him at the controls in every game. He?s dealing with a foot issue entering this one but was upgraded from questionable earlier this week and should at least be able to orchestrate an offense that running back Derrick Henry has strapped to his back behind the work of the offensive line over the past few weeks.

Mariota threw for just 88 yards in last Sunday?s 17-0 win over the Giants, the fourth time this season that he?s passed for fewer than 103 yards in a game. Tennessee has actually won two of those games, so like Washington, it is quite comfortable letting the defense decide things.

That Henry has run for over 400 yards and six touchdowns in the team?s last two wins has just been a bonus. The defense has surrendered only nine point to the Jaguars and Giants but does come in needing to replace bodies. Corner Logan Ryan was lost for the season to a broken fibula, while linebackers Brian Orakpo (elbow) and Sharif Finch (shoulder) have been ruled out.

Safety Kenny Vaccaro (concussion) defensive tackle Jurrell Casey (knee) and linebacker Wesley Woodyard (back) are all good to go, complicating matters for Josh Johnson, who wrestled away the ?Skins QB gig from a turnover-prone Mark Sanchez two weeks ago and becomes an unlikely player in meaningful December football considering he wasn?t on NFL roster all season and joined Washington earlier this month. He?s 27-for-41 with two touchdown passes, one pick and 96 rushing yards over two games and comes off a road win in Jacksonville.

He?s looked serviceable and Washington is as healthy as it has been in weeks at the skill positions, so there?s a chance he can keep the ?Skins in this if his defense complies.

?While you could be tempted to go ?over? in the Tennessee-Washington matchup because of a such low number, leaning low or staying away from the game altogether is probably the right decision,? said VI totals expert Chris David. ?According to the odds, we?ve seen 12 totals close in the thirties this season and the ?over? has gone 7-5 in those games. In Week 15, the ?under? went 2-0 in those situations and that included Washington?s 16-13 win over Jacksonville.

?Tennessee (19.1 PPG) and Washington (18.9 PPG) enter this game ranked 27th and 28th respectively in scoring offense. The Titans are clearly the better defensive team (18.1 PPG) and they?ve done a great job being a bully this season, holding teams below .500 to 10 PPG and that includes last week?s 17-0 shutout win over the Giants.?

Mariota?s foot issues give Washington?s defense hope that it can put together a second straight sturdy effort. The unit forced a pair of turnovers last week but has ruled out LB Ryan Anderson (hamstring) and won?t have safety Montae Nicholson (legal). Corners Danny Johnson (finger) and Joshua Holsey (knee) are also out.

Up front, guard Ty Nsheke (knee) has been ruled out, while likely replacement Tony Bergstrom is listed as questionable. Johnson will again be without tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis but has been making due without them. Washington closes at home with the Eagles next week and the Titans visit the Colts, so get used to watching these teams in meaningful games. The teams will open Week 16 and do-or-die football among cool conditions given temperatures in the mid-40s expected in Nashville. A lack of wind will aid the passing game ? if there is a desire to execute through the air on either side. ?Make a note that non-conference games saw the ?under? go 5-1 last week,? said David. ?While I would lean that way, I believe the better angle is to fade Washington?s offense and play their Team Total ?under? (13 ?).?