Cnotes NFL Picks

[Cnotes53]

Patriots-Chiefs Matchups
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

It will be dark and cold, perhaps absurdly cold, Sunday night in Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium will be lit up, though, and the winner of the Patriots-Chiefs game will head to Atlanta for the Super Bowl.

Here's how they match up:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

As they have much of the season, the Patriots will attempt to strike a balance of run and pass. In rookie Sony Michel (26), they have a ground force, and in fellow RB James White (28), they have perhaps the best receiver out of the backfield in the league.

Don't think Tom Brady (12) won't make use of them often - and more often. Against the Chargers, White tied an NFL postseason mark with 15 catches, totaling 97 yards. The one thing Kansas City can do exceptionally well on defense is rush the passer with DT Chris Jones (95), LBs Justin Houston (50) and Dee Ford (55), so Brady will throw those quick shots to his backs and WR Julian Edelman (11) and TE Rob Gronkowski (87). Should the offensive line led by LT Trent Brown (77), C David Andrews (60) and RG Shaq Mason (69) provide ample time, Brady can then look deep, where he could have significant matchup edges with Edelman, Chris Hogan (15), Phillip Dorsett (13) and even Cordarrelle Patterson (84).

Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton will need to be aggressive all game; we saw what happens when an opponent isn't when Brady and Michel ripped up the Chargers last week. Sutton's secondary has no dynamic players - S Eric Berry (29) is the best but has not been healthy this season - and using six DBs could be a necessity Sunday. The Chiefs (52 sacks) must get a strong pass rush on Brady, making him throw off-balance or before he wants to.

One thing in Kansas City's favor is a plus-9 turnover margin.

WHEN KANSAS CITY HAS THE BALL

Don't change what you have been doing.

All-Pro Patrick Mahomes (15) is only the third quarterback to throw for at least 50 touchdowns in a season; Brady also did it in 2007. Mahomes never gives up on plays, and he has an uncanny skill at prolonging them until WRs Tyreek Hill (10), Sammy Watkins (14) or Chris Conley (17) and All-Pro TE Travis Kelce (87) get open. Hill was the AP's All-Pro flex player, showing his versatility.

Considering his mobility, strong arm and resourcefulness, it is surprising Mahomes was sacked 26 times. New England, which had 30 sacks this season, wants to keep him bottled up, so key confrontations could be All-Pro RT Mitchell Schwartz (71) vs. DE Trey Flowers (98), and LT Eric Fisher (72) against an assortment of pass rushers. The Patriots also will get their linebackers into the mix, particularly Dont'a Hightower (54) and Kyle Van Noy (53).

Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore (24) is an All-Pro and will see plenty of Hill. How the other DBs handle Kelce and Mahomes' other targets could be a deciding factor; the New England secondary has been victimized often in road games.

Given the potential for cold weather, the Chiefs could work hard to run the ball with Damien Williams (26), who has stepped up nicely since Kareem Hunt was released, and Spencer Ware (32), who has battled a hamstring injury. Mahomes doesn't use his backs often in the passing game but they are solid.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both sides are reliable and have some dangerous elements in the return game. Kansas City has Hill for punts and rookie Tremon Smith (39) for kickoffs, while New England features Patterson on kickoffs and the always-reliable Edelman on punts. The cold weather could make the football feel like a lead weight for punters Ryan Allen (6) of the Patriots and Dustin Colquitt (2) of the Chiefs, though wind shouldn't bother either of them; they're used to it.

Field goals could be another matter. Although New England's Stephen Gostkowski (3) and Kansas City's Harrison Butker (7) have strong and accurate legs, don't be stunned to see both teams go for some fourth downs. Gostkowski is far more seasoned in pressure spots.

COACHING

Andy Reid is 2-6 against New England. He's had one of his best coaching years, though, and his handling of Mahomes has been remarkable. As long as he pushes the envelope, and avoids playing not to lose, he will give Kansas City every chance to reach its first Super Bowl since the 1969 season.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels recognizes his team will need to score aplenty, and he never backs off. The Patriots might be losing defensive coordinator Brian Flores to Miami as Dolphins head coach, and he could show why he deserves that spot by finding a way to slow down a Chiefs team that scored 565 points this season.

INTANGIBLES

The Patriots, in their record eighth straight conference title game, are so experienced in this environment. Yet they claim to feel slighted because of the doubts raised about their level of competence after going 3-5 on the road. A ticked-off Brady is never a good thing for the opposition, and the Patriots could become only the third franchise to reach three straight Super Bowls.

Still, Kansas City is so parched for a trip to the big game - the Chiefs went to two of the first four Super Bowls and won in 1970, but none since. And this team has a freshness about it largely thanks to Mahomes, who shattered nearly every franchise passing record this season.

Their meeting in October could have gone either way, with New England getting the ball last and making the final, winning drive. And that was in Foxborough.

 

[Cnotes53]

Rams-Saints Matchups
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

The gumbo the New Orleans Saints are cooking up is flavored with lots of passes from Drew Brees to Michael Thomas, plenty of runs by Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, and enough dashes of defense to negate the high-powered offense of the Los Angeles Rams.

Will that be the proper recipe?

Here's how they match up:

WHEN LOS ANGELES HAS THE BALL

Balance is the keyword to the Rams' offense, starting with the NFL's most versatile running back, All-Pro Todd Gurley (30). Gurley not only led the NFL with 21 TDs, he ranked fourth with 1,831 yards from scrimmage despite being slowed in December. He can do the dirty work inside and also break long gainers. And when he's struggled with knee issues recently, late-season pickup C.J. Anderson (35) has been masterful.

To combat the ground game, the Saints could be at a disadvantage after losing DT Sheldon Rankins to a torn Achilles tendon last week. They'll require steady production from their best linebacker, Demario Davis (56) who led the Saints with 110 tackles this season, and strong play from the D-line. But the Rams bring a staunch blocking unit featuring LT Andrew Whitworth (77), LG Rodger Saffold (76) and RT Rob Havenstein (79).

Should LA control the trenches, it will open up what already is a highly creative passing repertoire for Jared Goff (16) and wideouts Robert Woods (17), Brandin Cooks (12) and rapidly developing Josh Reynolds (83). All of them can find the end zone, with Cooks being the main deep threat. A former Saint, he'll likely match up with CB Marshon Lattimore (23), who had two interceptions against Philadelphia.

Teams can throw deep on New Orleans, and the Rams will try. Goff, though, will need protection from pass rushers Cam Jordan (93), Marcus Davenport (91) and the always-present Davis. And Goff must not let the noise factor affect him.

WHEN NEW ORLEANS HAS THE BALL

Just like LA, New Orleans will try nearly anything on offense. Fourth-down plays, a form of the wildcat with backup QB/special teamer Taysom Hill, and old-fashioned grinding will be in play.

Brees (9) has had one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame-caliber career, particularly with his efficiency. Last week, though, it was his leadership that stood out as the Saints fell into a 14-0 hole and looked amateurish before rallying.

Knowing New Orleans will need lots of points in this one, Brees could target All-Pro WR Michael Thomas (13) as often as he did against Philly, which was 16 times. Thomas caught 12 and had a TD. He will be the problem of standout CBs Aqib Talib (21) and Marcus Peters (22), both of them willing to gamble in coverage.

The Saints don't have another outstanding wideout or tight end, but RB Kamara (41) almost equals Gurley for all the things he can do - and he's healthier. Kamara and Ingram (22) will be challenged by a defense that shut down NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys and features the only unanimous All-Pro, DT Aaron Donald (99). Dealing with Donald and the other solid defensive linemen - Ndamukong Suh (93) and Michael Brockers (90) - will be a Saints unit led by LT Terron Armstead (71) and LG Andrus Peat (74), who have been bothered by chest and hand injuries, respectively, and RT Ryan Ramczyk (71). Giving Brees time and Kamara/Ingram holes could be decisive.

SPECIAL TEAMS

An indoor game makes for stronger kicking and, often, less impact by placekickers and punters.

LA PK Greg Zuerlein (4) and P Johnny Hekker (6) might have the most powerful legs in the league, and Zuerlein is a field-goal threat from 60 yards and in. Hekker probably could put a punt off the Superdome roof.

Although Wil Lutz (3) missed a 52-yard FG attempt that kept the Eagles close last week, he's reliable and, for someone in his third season, has hit a bunch of pressure kicks. Thomas Morstead (6) is in his 10th season with New Orleans, longer than anyone except Brees.

The Rams aren't exceptional on returns, but they aren't inept, either. JoJo Natson (19) has handled most of the punt runbacks, while Blake Countess (24) is the kick returner.

New Orleans, like the Rams, has not returned a kick for a score. Tommylee Lewis (11) has become the main guy.

COACHING

Sean vs. Sean. Two entirely different Seans in terms of experience.

New Orleans' Payton is in his 12th season in charge; he missed 2012 while suspended in the Saints' bounties scandal. His offensive schemes fit perfectly with Brees' skillset, and he won't be overwhelmed by the surroundings, having won the 2009 championship. Payton will gamble, including fake punts with his version of a Swiss Army knife, third-string QB Taysom Hill (7).

LA's McVay is the hot commodity on the pro football market. Every team looking for a new head coach has at least investigated people who've worked with McVay, who will be 33 next Thursday. He's innovative, aggressive and, in some ways, one of the guys.

Because both Seans are willing to go for it, this should be a fun battle of wits.

INTANGIBLES

The Rams have never won a Super Bowl while representing Los Angeles; they got one in 2000 as St. Louis' team - that Super Bowl also was in Atlanta. Wade Phillips, while never one of the NFL's great coaches, is one of the best defensive coordinators ever. He's eager to prove so again in facing such a productive attack.

Brees is closer to the end of his career than perhaps anyone in this game, though he's given no indication he is about to retire. Winning a second Super Bowl would cement his place among the sport's top quarterbacks.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Championships
January 18, 2019
By Chris David

Divisional Playoffs Recap

The totals went 2-2 last weekend and while the 'over' in the Rams-Cowboys needed help late, the Chiefs-Colts matchup slowed down considerably in the second-half. Bettors playing the first-half watched the 'over' go 3-1. Through eight postseason games, the 'under' owns a 5-3 record.

Championship Game History

Including last year's under' winner between the Patriots and Jaguars, the low side is now 6-1 in the previous seven AFC Championship games. Jacksonville is just one of two teams that was able to score 20 points on New England during its run of seven consecutive apperances in the title game.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL HISTORY (2008-2018)

Year Result Total
2017-2018 New England 24 vs. Jacksonville 20 46, Under
2016-2017 New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 49.5, Over
2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 45, Under
2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 52.5, Under
2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 57, Under
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, Under
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, Under
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, Over
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, Over
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, Over

The NFC Championship has watched the ?over? go 7-3 the last 10 years. New Orleans helped in the 2009-10 NFC title game with a 31-28 home win over the Brett Favre-led Minnesota Vikings.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL HISTORY (2008-2018)

Year Result Total
2017-2018 Philadelphia 38 vs. Minnesota 7 39, Over
2016-2017 Atlanta 44 vs. Green Bay 21 61, Over
2015-2016 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 47.5, Over
2014-2015 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) 47, Over
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, Under
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, Over
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) 42, Under
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, Under
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) 54, Over
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, Over

After a 3-3 week in the Wild Card round, we went 2-3 in the Divisional Round and two of the losers were clear-cut as the Saints and Eagles never came close to their number. Hopefully we can get back into the black with the title games. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

NFC Championship - L.A. Rams at New Orleans (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers at BookMaker.eu opened this total at 56 ? and as of Friday morning, the total is sitting at 57. When the pair met in the regular season on Nov. 4, the Saints captured a 45-35 home win over the Rams and the ?over? (57 ?) connected easily. New Orleans led 35-17 at halftime and the high side cashed early in the second-half with plenty of time to spare.

Will we see another shootout in the rematch from the Superdome? If the offensive units both show up like they did in the Week 9 encounter, it?s hard to argue against another high-scoring affair. The Rams are ranked second in scoring offense at 32.8 points per game while the Saints are ranked third with 30.8 PPG.

While those numbers are hard to ignore, the eyeball test may have you thinking otherwise especially after what we saw from both teams in the Divisional Round last week.

Los Angeles captured a 30-22 home win over Dallas last Saturday and the ?over? (48) barely connected thanks to a pair of late touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Even though bettors on the high side had to sweat it out, the ?over? was the right wager. The Rams led 20-7 at halftime and they left points off the board in the first 30 minutes as they settled for a pair of short field goals (25, 23). Plus, they missed a field goal at the end of the first-half. The offense racked up 459 total yards for the game, which included an eye-opening 273 yards on the ground. They controlled the clock and held the ball for just over 36 minutes on nine possessions. They scored on six of their nine possessions while punting once in the game and the final drive concluded with them running out the clock.

If the Rams offense was on target in the red zone, they could?ve posted over 40 points on the Cowboys. That?s been an issue with this team and they?re ranked 18th in the league in red zone percentage (57%) this season, the lowest number among the four teams left. New Orleans is fourth, with a 70.4 conversion percentage. If head coach Sean McVay and the Rams don?t produce against the Saints and they only get nine possessions, they might be lucky to break 20 points in the rematch.

In the Week 9 encounter, both teams had 11 possessions and both offenses got six opportunities apiece in the first-half. New Orleans executed much better early, scoring five touchdowns and the other possession was one play that resulted in a fumble. Another takeaway from the first meeting was the ability of New Orleans to move the chains or deliever the knockout punch. Three of their scoring drives took five minutes off the clock while two others took less than a minute.

The Saints offense wasn?t clicking last Sunday as they defeated the Eagles 20-14 at home. The total (52 ?) was pushed up late and while the final score looked like an easy ?under? winner, Philadelphia led 14-10 at halftime and that?s not a terrible pace for ?over? wagers. The Eagles tightened up in the second-half while the Saints buckled down and only 10 points were scored in the final 30 minutes. New Orleans missed a field goal (52 yarder) late in the game, which would?ve helped bettors backing the home favorite (-8).

The 20-point effort by New Orleans was the lowest amount of points that it?s scored at home this season in meaningful games. They lost 33-14 in Week 17 to Carolina but the Saints started many of their reserves. Some pundits believe that the Cowboys put out the blueprint on how to stop New Orleans. In their Week 13 matchup from Arlington, Dallas stifled New Orleans 13-10 and held them to 176 total yards while dominating the time of possession battle (37-23). The Saints finished the game with nine possessions and four of them were three plays or less.

Including that game, New Orleans averaged 19.2 points per game in its final six games and if you take out the Carolina result, the number moves slightly up to 20.2 PPG. The ?under? went 4-2 during this span and while the inconsistent offense has helped those results, the Saints defense (18.5 PPG/15.6 PPG) has been very solid during this span as well.

Quarterback Drew Brees (34 TDs, 6 INTs) has had another great season but since the Dallas game, he?s only thrown for five touchdowns and he?s been picked off four times. Outside of wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara, this squad doesn?t boast many weapons on the outside. You can now see why the club picked up WR Dez Bryant, who never played due to an injury.

Prior to last Sunday?s result, the Saints had watched their last five playoff games at home go ?over? with Brees under center. New Orleans has played in two title games with the future Hall of Famer and the ?over? cashed in both of those games, the most recent victory (31-28) coming in 2009 against Minnesota. The postseason total numbers for the Rams are 1-1 since the team moved back to Los Angeles.

Fearless Prediction: After watching what the Rams did to the Cowboys last week with their running game, many believe we'll see a repeat of that performance and that's just a knee-jerk reaction. I don't see it happening, especially against a Saints defense that?s ranked second against the rush (78.4 PPG). The unit did lose a solid piece to injury last week (Sheldon Rankins) but executing on the road won't be easy for Los Angeles. I believe the better route to attack New Orleans is through its secondary, which isn?t great. Rams QB Jared Goff tossed for 391 yards in the first meeting and I expect him to take shots early and often again on Sunday. I?m not sure both teams will get into the thirties but I expect Los Angeles to get at least five scores in the Superdome and I'm hoping they finish drives this week. My selection is on the Rams Team Total Over (26 ?).

AFC Championship ? New England at Kansas City (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)

The total between the Patriots and Kansas City opened as high as 59 at the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon while New England was still putting a beatdown on the L.A. Chargers. As of Friday morning, the number has dropped to 56 at the SuperBook and most global betting shops are holding 55 ?. The downward movement can be attributed to meteorologists, who called for an ?Arctic blast? by kickoff earlier in the week with temperatures dropping below zero. Sure enough, those so-called experts now project the game to be played in the twenties as the cold front is expected to come sooner than later to Arrowhead Stadium.

Either way, the conditions won?t come close to the temperatures in the seventies when the pair met in Week 6 from Foxboro. In that contest, New England captured a wild 43-40 shootout over Kansas City and the ?over? (59 ?) was never in doubt. The Patriots (500) and Chiefs (446) both put up monster numbers, but they racked up the yards differently.

New England was able to establish both its passing (327) and rushing (173) games while racking up 31 first downs. They finished with 11 possessions and scored nine times, five field goals and four touchdowns. Kansas City had the same number of touchdowns (4) as New England, but one less field goal (4) than the Patriots. The Chiefs hurt their defense by scoring all four touchdowns in less than two minutes and two of the scores came on 67 and 75-yard plays.

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes led the charge with 352 yards and four touchdowns but he was also picked off twice and he missed a couple passes that would?ve resulted in sixes on the board instead of threes. One of his main targets for that game was RB Kareem Hunt (15 touches, 182 yards), but he hasn?t been with the team since Week 11 due to off the field troubles. His absence hasn?t been felt yet and backup Damien Williams has stepped in nicely.

Last Saturday, the Chiefs ran over the Colts 31-13 in the Divisional Round at home and the ?under? (55) connected because the Indianapolis offense forgot to show up. The Colts were punched in the mouth quickly and that?s been a staple of the KC defense at home, which is only allowing 17.4 PPG. Kansas City had three sacks last week against Indy, pushing their league-leading total to 55 on the season. That production has helped the ?under? go 6-3 at Arrowhead this season.

New England?s wire-to-wire 41-28 home win over the Chargers last Sunday in the Divisional Round watched the ?over? (47 ?) connect rather easily. The Patriots led 35-7 at halftime behind QB Tom Brady (343 yards, 1 TD) and RB Sony Michel (129 rushing yards, 3 TDs).

Despite that ?over? ticket, the Patriots have seen the ?under? go 11-6 this season and that includes a 5-3 mark away from home. New England went 3-5 on the road and it only faced one playoff team during and it defeated the Bears 38-31 with the help from their special teams (2 TDs). Including that result, the Patriots were outscored by close to three points (24 to 21.6 PPG) on the road this season.

The Chiefs finally snapped their six-game losing skid at home in the playoffs last Saturday and head coach Andy Reid improved to 2-4 in the postseason with Kansas City. The ?under? has gone 4-2 in those games, which includes a 3-0 mark at home. Overall, he?s 12-13 in the playoffs and that includes a 10-9 record in his previous coaching stint with Philadelphia. During his tenure with the Eagles, Reid led his squad to five championship games. The Birds went 1-4 while the ?over? was 3-2 in those games.

Including last week?s outcome versus the Bolts, the Patriots have seen the ?over? go 9-3 in their last 12 playoff games and that dates back to the 2014-15 postseason. Coincidentally, all three ?under? tickets occurred in the Championship round and that?s been a common theme for the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Looking above, you can see that New England will be making its eighth straight appearance in the title game and the ?under? has gone 6-1 the last seven years.

New England has only played two of those games on the road and what?s amazing is that Patriots have only been visitors seven times in the postseason with Brady as QB and that?s less than the number of Super Bowls (8) that they?ve played in. In those games, New England has gone 3-4 while the ?under? is 4-3. Their last two trips to Denver (2014, 2016) watched the offense get stifled to 16 and 18 points.

Fearless Prediction: Of the four units on the field Sunday, I believe the Kansas City offense is the best and it has a big advantage of playing at home. The New England defense hasn?t faced many tests this season and when it does, it allowed 28.6 PPG to playoff teams. The Chiefs have pumped the breaks under Reid in the second-half at times but the offense hasn?t been slowed down when pressed. I don't see both clubs getting into the forties again but I have more confidence in the Chiefs, which is why I?m leaning to the Kansas City Team Total Over (29 ?).

 

[Cnotes53]

Saints secondary confident vs. Rams
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

METAIRIE, La. (AP) Marshon Lattimore and the Saints' secondary no longer look - or sound - haunted by the ''Minnesota Miracle'' touchdown pass that stunningly ended their playoffs one year ago.

''We don't panic. We don't do none of that,'' Lattimore said. ''We adjust well.''

Lattimore backed that up with his late-game interception against Philadelphia last weekend - his second of the game - securing the Saints' trip to Sunday's NFC title game.

Now the question is whether a Saints defensive backfield that ranked 29th against the pass this season is prepared to do what it takes to slow down the potent Los Angeles Rams with the Super Bowl bid on the line.

''We're ready,'' said Saints cornerback Eli Apple, who was brought in via trade to help shore up a New Orleans pass defense that was shaky early this season.

''We've just got to continue to be persistent in these meetings with our questions, everybody get on the same page and learning, just applying it on the field and going hard.''

New Orleans gave up an average of 268.9 yards per game this season, but Lattimore said part of their unflattering ranking as a pass defense stems from a couple of poor performances early in the season, starting with a 48-40 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and a 43-37 Week 3 overtime victory at Atlanta .

''We had a big hole to climb out of at the beginning of the season. We don't really worry about that though,'' Lattimore said. ''We're winning. So, we're good.''

Lattimore said he also has improved individually since struggling some at the beginning of the season and might be playing his best now.

''I'm just making plays that come my way,'' Lattimore said. ''I have to be the one to make those plays. It's a bigger stage right now. So, I have to come up and do the job for my team.''

Saints nickel back P.J. Williams said the Saints' poor ranking against the pass is misleading because New Orleans ranked first most of the season against the run before finishing second. Meanwhile, Drew Brees and New Orleans' high-powered offense have staked the Saints to a lot of leads.

And when teams fall behind, they tend to run less because it takes too much time off the clock.

''They can't run the ball. You got to pass the ball. You're playing from behind,'' Williams said. ''So a team might get 300 or so passing yards, but at the end of the day, they're trying to come back.''

Williams said the Saints are more concerned with opposing QBs' completion rate than how many yards they allow. On that front, New Orleans ranked somewhat better, at 23rd, allowing a 66.5 percent completion rate.

Rams quarterback Jared Goff completed 28 of 40 passes for 391 yards and three TDs the previous time he played in the Superdome.

Whether he'll be as productive in the rematch depends on how Los Angeles decides to attack the Saints, and how New Orleans responds.

The Rams often favor the running game, and rushed 48 times for 273 yards in a playoff victory over Dallas last week.

But Los Angeles largely abandoned the run during its midseason meeting with the Saints after New Orleans raced to a 35-14 lead in the second quarter. The Rams wound up rushing just 19 times in a 45-35 loss.

Lattimore said if the Rams abandoned the run again, New Orleans' secondary will have to be prepared for heavy doses of receivers Brandin Cooks, whose speed makes him an elite deep threat, and Robert Woods, who lines up all over the field.

And if the game is close, it could be up to the Saints' secondary to close out another high-stakes affair.

Last year, that scenario ended with the Vikings' Stefon Diggs making a leaping catch near the sideline and running free to the end zone as time expired after safety Marcus Williams missed a tackle and took out teammate Ken Crawley in the process.

This year, the Saints' secondary has closed out one playoff victory and sounds confident it will rise to that challenge again, if needed.

''We've done a great job finishing games, making adjustments, playing fast, physical, making great plays on the ball, just got to keep it going,'' Apple said. ''Something we always talk about is closing games. We want that on our shoulders and that pressure that comes with it.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Rams hungry for Super Bowl run
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (AP) Ndamukong Suh earned multiple All-Pro honors, Pro Bowl selections and tens of millions of dollars during his first eight NFL seasons.

The imposing defensive lineman had never won a playoff game, let alone a Super Bowl. When he was free to choose his next team after the Dolphins released him last March, Suh decided he would try to fill that gap in his resume.

After speaking at length with the New Orleans Saints and other suitors, he decided to join the Los Angeles Rams . They hadn't won a playoff game since the 2004 season, but they appeared to be on the verge of something big after going 11-5 last season.

''I felt this team had some of the right pieces, and I would be a good addition to it,'' Suh said. ''A lot of conversations that we had with the coaching staff and the front office on my visit were (about) playing well in the season and being prepared for the postseason.''

Nearly 10 months later, the payoff has arrived for Suh's leap of faith to Los Angeles.

After the Rams went 13-3 for the best regular-season record of Suh's career, he had likely his best game for his new team last weekend when Los Angeles beat the Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the divisional round. The Rams head into the NFC championship game at the Superdome on Sunday with a shot at the 32-year-old Suh's first trip to his sport's biggest stage.

''It would mean a lot,'' Suh said. ''I've been in this league for nine years. (This is) my first NFC championship (game), and that would be my first Super Bowl. I get chills thinking about it, so I'm excited. I'm looking forward to it.''

Suh's thoughts are echoed across the Rams' locker room, which is filled with accomplished NFL players who have never accomplished much in the postseason.

Many key players remain from the team that went 4-12 in 2016 during the franchise's 13th straight non-winning season, from Jared Goff and Todd Gurley to Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.

Several of the veterans that Los Angeles has added in the past two years also lacked playoff credentials - including 37-year-old Andrew Whitworth, the dominant left tackle who finally got his first postseason win last weekend.

''Honestly, we feel like we've been through it,'' Whitworth said. ''There's really not much adversity we haven't seen all year long. I think we kind of feel like we were born for this moment and this opportunity.''

Indeed, the Rams likely don't have the collective playoff experience of their fellow conference finalists, but they have a firm bond forged during a season of upheaval.

They had to stick together in November when the suburban area around their training complex was rocked by the double impact of a mass shooting at a bar and two wildfires that forced several players and coaches to leave their homes as a precaution. The Rams also had to adjust to a schedule change when their game against the Chiefs in Mexico City was moved back to Los Angeles on six days' notice.

None of it has shaken the team led by coach Sean McVay, who became the youngest coach in NFL history to win a playoff game last weekend.

McVay acknowledges no concern about his inexperience on the sport's highest levels when compared to the likes of New Orleans' Sean Payton, who has a Super Bowl ring.

That's because McVay has assistant coaches with experience in conference championships and Super Bowls - particularly defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who has done and seen everything the NFL can offer.

While a conference title game in the deafening Superdome is a new experience for most Rams, Brandin Cooks is an exception on several fronts. The veteran receiver won't even be surprised by the Superdome din.

Cooks played three years with the Saints - albeit without making the playoffs - before moving to the Patriots last season. He played in the first quarter of the Super Bowl before incurring a concussion that kept him out of the rest of New England's loss to Philadelphia.

Cooks was traded to the Rams, but he agreed to a five-year contract extension before he had even suited up in a horned helmet. He says he hasn't regretted his decision, although he didn't dare to imagine he would have a chance to play in two straight Super Bowls for different teams.

''When I got here, I knew we had something special,'' Cooks said. ''But (I knew I shouldn't) get ahead of myself. Take it one game at a time, just build throughout the weeks, and if we have the opportunity, then we're blessed. Don't think about it too much, is what I should say.''

NOTES: WR Robert Woods also got his first career playoff win last week. The six-year veteran admits that last years' experience in the Rams' postseason loss to Atlanta helped them. ''Just learning from that experience, our win last week was about situational football. Just executing, and protecting the ball.'' ... For the second straight day, the Rams had no players on their injury report. Although they've lost key receiver Cooper Kupp for the season, the Rams have been otherwise remarkably healthy this season. ... The torrential rains that have hit Los Angeles over the past three days abated by midday Thursday, allowing the Rams to practice on their normal outdoor fields. The team erected an enormous temporary tent on the parking lot next to their training complex if they needed it, but so far it hasn't been necessary to go indoors.

 

[Cnotes53]

Patriots try to overcome road woes
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) The Patriots are going on the road again in the playoffs, a place that hasn't always been kind to them during the Tom Brady era.

New England was unbeatable at home this season, going 8-0 during the regular season and rolling past the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional round.

Playing outside of Massachusetts has provided different outcomes. Brady is 8-4 in AFC championship games with a 6-1 record at home. But he's just 2-3 on the road in the conference title game, with both wins coming at Pittsburgh during 2001 and 2004 seasons. New England was 3-5 in games away from Gillette Stadium during the 2018 regular season.

The Patriots enter Sunday's AFC title game at Kansas City trying to become the first team since the 1990s Bills to reach the Super Bowl after losing it the previous season. They haven't won a road playoff game since beating the Chargers 24-21 in the divisional round of the 2006 season.

The Patriots lost to the Colts on the road in the 2006 AFC title game and twice at Denver - in the AFC championship game during the 2013 season and again in the 2015 AFC title game. New England has played the rest of its 22 playoff games since 2006 at home or a neutral field in the Super Bowl.

''It's tough to beat the No. 1 seed on the road. That's the reality, just like we're tough to beat at home when we're the No. 1 seed,'' Brady said this week. ''It takes a lot. It takes a lot of good football. It takes a great complementary game. All three phases have to be on point. We're going against a team that scores a lot of points.''

They will also have to deal with what could be the coldest temperature for a game in Arrowhead Stadium history. An arctic blast is forecast for Kansas City.

Patriots linebacker Dont'a Hightower said his focus will be on trying to contain the NFL's top scoring offense and not the thermometer.

''It's definitely one of the hardest places to play. But, at the end of the day, it just comes down to executing It comes down to football and executing plays,'' Hightower said. ''They're a high-powered offense and they're real good on defense, so obviously defensively, we're going to have to eliminate big plays.''

The Patriots opened the week as a three-point underdog, the first time in 68 games, including playoffs, that Brady didn't enter a week as the favorite.

The previous time Brady wasn't the favorite was on Sept. 20, 2015, at Buffalo. The Pats were two-point underdogs that day and won the game 40-32.

It's why Chiefs coach Andy Reid is expecting Brady and the Patriots' best effort on Sunday.

''They're a heck of a team, so I don't get caught up in all that,'' Reid said. ''You're talking about a dynasty, if there is such a thing, in the National Football League. They've been that. You're talking about a head coach that I think the world of him, I think he's a great coach. He's done a phenomenal job keeping that thing together. We're getting ready to get their best shot, offense, defense and special teams.''

Brady didn't hide his thoughts for the Patriots' critics in the aftermath of their divisional-round win over the Chargers, commenting, ''I know everybody thinks we suck and, you know, we can't win any games.'' But he tried to downplay being officially cast in the role of underdog this week.

''It doesn't change much for us, but it just kind of shows you what people think about what our chances are. That's about it,'' Brady said.

At least one of his teammates didn't play it quite as coyly.

Receiver Julian Edelman posted #BetAgainstUs on his Twitter account accompanied with a video that featured highlights of the Chiefs' season. The montage ends with shots of Brady and Edelman from New England's comeback win in overtime from a 25-point deficit in the Super Bowl against Atlanta in the 2016 season.

So, is being an underdog motivation or not for the Patriots?

''If you're not motivated this week you've got a major problem,'' Brady said. ''This is the week where you shouldn't have to put anything extra in. This is what it's all about. You sign up any chance you get to play in the AFC championship game, so I don't care where, when, time, cold weather, rain, blood. It don't matter.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Sorry America, team you love to hate headed to Super Bowl
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

NOT THEM AGAIN!

Sorry America - at least outside of New England - but the team you love to hate is headed back to the Super Bowl.

Sure, there are negatives to point out with these Patriots. They haven't looked much more than mediocre on the road. Their defense is vulnerable, especially against dynamic passers, and Kansas City certainly has one of those in Patrick Mahomes.

New England's coaching staff tends to take away an opponent's biggest threat. Who is that with the Chiefs, though? Mahomes has Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins as dangerous targets. He has a running game that hasn't really missed Kareem Hunt since he was released.

Oh yeah, Tom Brady also is 41. At times, he's looked it this season.

And there are so many positives to list, especially when the Patriots (12-5) get this far. Such as being to eight Super Bowls with Brady at quarterback, winning five. Such as their superb demolition of the Chargers, an opponent many thought was the most balanced team in the postseason; though the Chargers' defense looked from the outset as if it wanted no part of frigid Foxborough.

Oh yeah, Brady is 41. He's seen pretty much everything, and will particularly like the looks of the spotty pass coverage Kansas City (13-4) provides.

The entire environment seems to work for New England.

''Yeah, I think this team thrives on it,'' receiver Phillip Dorsett says. ''Obviously, there's no elephant in the room, we're 3-5 on the road and everybody is going to criticize us for that. We've got our backs against the wall and we've just got to go out there and play our best game. That's the only thing that really matters.''

It also matters that Chiefs coach Andy Reid rarely outsmarts the Patriots. Indeed, Reid's only Super Bowl trip was spoiled by New England when it beat Reid's Eagles for the 2004 title. Reid is 2-6 vs. the Patriots, and lost 43-40 on Oct. 14 at Gillette Stadium.

The Chiefs are 3-point favorites, which accounts for the home-field edge. Except in the upcoming arctic conditions, and with the pedigree of the Patriots, this is a matchup Kansas City won't win.

UPSET SPECIAL: PATRIOTS, 27-23

Los Angeles Rams (plus 3) at New Orleans Saints

A 45-35 shootout victory for Drew Brees and the Saints on Nov. 4 came in the Superdome. These two have a return matchup Sunday to get to the Super Bowl, and with all their firepower, this one could come down to one factor: experience.

That edge clearly falls to the hosts. New Orleans (14-3) has been a postseason regular since coach Sean Payton and Brees hooked up in 2006. This is the Saints' third NFC championship appearance - a loss at Chicago in January 2007, an overtime win over Minnesota at home three years later. The Saints won the Super Bowl that season, as well.

Los Angeles (14-3) had the only unanimous member of the All-Pro team, defensive tackle Aaron Donald. And the Saints lost key DT Sheldon Rankins to a torn Achilles tendon last weekend. Still, this side of the ball looks like a wash.

The site of this game is more critical than in the AFC. The way the Superdome rocks can be disruptive to opponents, and uplifting to the homies. Just look at the Saints' win against defending champion Philadelphia last Sunday.

So give us Brees' calmness and creativity over Jared Goff's relative newness.

BEST BET: SAINTS, 34-26

---

Last Week: Against Spread (1-3). Straight up (3-1)

Season Totals: Against spread (134-113-9). Straight up: (174-88-2)

Best Bet: 8-11 against spread, 13-6 straight up

Upset special: 10-9 against spread, 9-9-1 straight up

 

[Cnotes53]

Chiefs aim to end 49-year SB drought
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) The even-keeled executive with the crisp suit and winning smile stood inside the mostly empty Kansas City Chiefs locker room, his team having just won a home playoff game for the first time in 25 years.

He talked about how much it meant to their long-suffering fans. Spoke glowingly about coach Andy Reid, and his young superstar quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. He praised the rest of a team that captured its third straight AFC West title before knocking off the Colts in the playoffs.

It wasn't until Clark Hunt was asked about winning the AFC title game that he became emotional.

You see, the Chiefs were founded by his father, the late Lamar Hunt, who along with seven others in what would be called ''The Foolish Club'' founded the AFL.

The personable Texas businessman's importance to establishing the modern NFL was honored in 1984, when the league renamed the silver trophy awarded to the winner of the AFC championship game the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

So it's easy to understand why his son, now the team's chairman and the most visible face of the ownership family, would have tears in the corners of his eyes at the thought of holding it for the first time with a win over the New England Patriots on Sunday night.

''It's been a long time coming,'' Clark Hunt said. ''Since Andy came here we've had a lot of shots, but we finally have a chance to win the AFC championship, and to do it at home is so special for us.''

The Chiefs have never played an AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. They won at Buffalo to reach the first Super Bowl, and in Oakland on their way to their lone Super Bowl triumph in 1970.

They lost their only other appearance in Buffalo in January 1994.

Indeed, the opportunity to return to the NFL's biggest stage for the first time in 49 years has been a long time coming. The Chiefs lost eight consecutive postseason games during one maddening stretch, and squandered the No. 1 seed along the way. They had great individual players - Tony Gonzalez, Priest Holmes, Joe Montana - yet never managed to hoist the AFC championship trophy.

Former coach Dick Vermeil, who took the Eagles to the Super Bowl and won it with the Rams, said this week that ''my biggest regret'' was failing to deliver it during his five seasons in Kansas City.

''It would be great. I mean, when your name is on it, that's a pretty big thing,'' said current Chiefs coach Andy Reid, who still remembers meeting Lamar Hunt during an ownership meeting years ago.

Hunt died in December 2006 at the age of 74.

''To have the opportunity to work with his kids and Clark in particular, I understand the importance of that,'' Reid said. ''Not that he has to tell me. He doesn't have to say anything.''

In fact, the Chiefs make sure everybody knows the importance.

''One of the awesome things we do with our player development team is that they take us through the whole history,'' Mahomes said. ''We come over to the museum that we have in the stadium and they take us through how he made the AFL, pretty much from scratch, and had this vision for what is now the AFC and combined it with the NFL and made this beautiful league.

''It truly is special for someone like that who has created your franchise,'' Mahomes added. ''You want to do whatever you can to bring honor to him and that family.''

The Patriots are no strangers to hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy, of course. They are playing for it for the eighth consecutive season, and the coach-quarterback combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have succeeded in hoisting it eight times since their first real season together in 2001.

But despite a perennial juggernaut standing in the way, there is a profound sense of confidence that surrounds the Chiefs these days, an unabashed optimism that can be felt all around town.

Fountains are colored red - at least, those that haven't frozen - and Chiefs banners hang off many of the city's iconic buildings. Fans are streaming into Charlie Hustle, a local vintage clothing store, for their ''Arrowhead Collection'' of shirts. Those who aren't making a buck off the Chiefs' playoff ride are spending a buck to support them, or in many cases several hundred bucks.

The stars are quite literally aligning: There is a ''super blood wolf moon'' due Sunday night, where the sun, Earth and moon line up and the moon is cast in a rusty (Chiefs-like) red tint.

The fan fever is not unlike the way the city embraced the Royals when they made back-to-back World Series appearances. And when they won the 2015 championship, some 800,000 turned out for the parade.

Imagine how many would show up if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.

''It means a lot just to make it to this point,'' said Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston, one of the team's elder statesmen. I've never had this opportunity, so I think it will means a lot to me, to (the Hunt family) and to the city.''

Yes, the Hunt family.

Clark Hunt knows better than to plan for parades before games are won. The Chiefs have come up short many times, and the sting of those disappointments still lingers after all these years. Yet the franchise is also on the precipice of something great, a potential salve to make that pain go away.

''It's very special, obviously, for our entire family,'' Hunt said. ''It's one of the goals that I always put out for the players at the beginning of the year. First thing we want to do is win that Lamar Hunt Trophy. Then we want to go to the Super Bowl and win that Lombardi Trophy.''

 

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



WEATHER WARMING UP?

The weather forecast might be warming up for Sunday?s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. Earlier in the week, we were hearing about an ?Arctic blast? with temperatures heading towards zero or below. It?s still going to be very cold, but more recent forecasts are showing temperatures in the mid-20s and a ?feels-like? temperature of about 19-20.

This change in forecast makes a difference if you believe in historical numbers. Here?s what we mentioned earlier in the week about Over/Under trends in cold weather:

Since 2003, the Over is actually cashing at 58.8 percent (114-80-2) in all games (regular season and playoffs) played in temperatures 30 degrees or lower. In the playoffs alone, that percentage drops to 52.3 percent (23-21-1) at 30 degrees or less but then spikes to 62.5 percent (10-6-1) in games played in 20 degrees or less.

It also must be noted that, since 2003, only once has there been a postseason game played in sub-30-degree temperature with a closing total of 55.5 or higher and it went Under (New Orleans at Philadelphia, Jan. 4, 2014, closing total 55.5, 50 total points scored). If we drop the closing total to 50, there have been seven such games since 2003 and the Under has cashed in five of them ? including last week?s Chiefs-Colts game.

There are a lot of different ways to look at the weather and how it affects totals, but there?s one thing to keep in mind for Sunday: Weather forecasts do (and will) change so it?s probably best to wait before making your Over/Under bet for this one. Keep monitoring Covers? weather page up until kick off and use the above data to make an informed decision on whether you?re going Over or Under.


WARE PRACTICES IN FULL

Kansas City running back Spencer Ware finally got in a full practice session on Thursday, pretty much guaranteeing that he?ll suit up for Sunday?s AFC title game. Ware hasn?t played since Week 14 and in his place, Damien Williams has taken the lead-back role and run with it (literally). Ware will be nothing more than change-of-pace back on Sunday.

Williams is the man to back or own in DFS this weekend as he?s in a great spot to put up numbers. Andy Reid has shown has that he likes to attack New England with dual-threat running backs as Kareem Hunt totaled 185 and 246 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns the last two times the Chiefs played the Pats. Williams has posted 123, 140, and 154 combined rushing and receiving yards in three of his last four games and in that fourth game he played just 28 snaps in Week 17. Williams is in line to have a monster game and we?re backing the Over 95.5 for Williams? combined rushing and receiving totals.


BACKING BREES (AGAIN)

If it ain?t broke, don?t fix it. We got a winner by backing Drew Brees to go Over 286.5 passing yards last week and we?re going right back to the well for Sunday's NFC Championship game. Brees has been ridiculous at home this season, averaging 321.6 passing yards with a 76.3 percent completion rate ? and that includes his 346-yard performance against the Rams in Week 9. Historically, Brees in the Superdome in the playoffs is also a deadly combo as he?s undefeated and has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight.

The Rams ranked ninth in passing DVOA this season and gave up 236.2 passing yards per game (14th fewest in the league) but were vulnerable to giving some big passing games late in the season. Dak Prescott went well above his season average last week by throwing for 266 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt (YPA), while Nick Mullens went for 282 yards on 8.5 YPA in Week 17 and Nick Foles threw for 270 yards on 8.7 YPA in Week 15.

Brees averaged 9.5 YPA at home during the regular season and passed for 7.9 YPA last week. Based on the Rams? recent games and Brees? success at home, we?re assuming he can average at least 8.8 YPA on Sunday. Brees? total is set at 299.5 passing yards, meaning he?ll need 35 attempts to go Over ? and he had 35-plus pass attempts in five of his eight home games so far this season (including the playoffs). We?re backing the Over 299.5 for Brees? passing yards total.


FIELD-GOAL FUN!

Let?s talk kickers! The NFC Championship features two of the better field-goal kickers in the game in L.A.?s Greg Zuerlein and New Orleans? Wil Lutz. Zuerlein finished 16th in field-goal percentage in the regular season at 87.1, but he was 4 of 6 from 40-49 yards and 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards this season, with a long of 56. Lutz was more accurate, making 28 of 30 field goals on the season (93.3 percent) and was an impressive 11 of 12 from 40-49 yards and 2 of 3 from 50-plus yards, with a long of 54.

So far in the postseason, Zuerlein is 3 of 4 on all field goals, 1 of 1 from 40-49 yards, and 0 for 1 from 50-plus; Lutz is 2 of 3 overall, 1 for 1 from 40-49, and 0 for 1 from 50-plus. Kicking conditions will be perfect for these two on Sunday as the game is being played indoors and the prop for longest field goal made is set at a very tempting 44.5 yards. We?re backing the Over.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

? Last five years, home team is 10-0 SU in this round (all #1 seeds).
? Last eight times #1-2 seeds met in this round, underdogs were 5-2-1 vs spread.

Rams @ Saints? Rams lost here 45-35 back in Week 9; NO led 35-17 at half, Rams came back to tie game, but fell short, in game that Talib (leg injury) missed- he is back now. Home side won last six series games; Rams lost last three trips to Superdome- their last win here was in ?07. Rams ran ball for 269-155-273 yards in last three games overall, as Gurley/Anderson became a prolific running combo. LA is 6-2 SU on road this year, 13-3 in two years under McVay. Saints outgained Philly 420-250 LW after falling behind 14-0 early; NO is 14-3 this year, with two of losses at home, but Brees (rest) sat out Week 17 loss. Last 11 years, underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread in NFC title games. Rams are 2-1 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-35-30 points.

Patriots @ Chiefs? New England is in its 8th straight AFC title game, going 4-3 in previous seven; Patriots are 0-3 in last three AFC title games on road- their last road win in an AFC title game was 14 years ago. KC lost 43-40 in Foxboro back in Week 6; NE outgained Chiefs 500-446. Teams split last four series games; Chiefs won 42-27 in Foxboro LY. This is first AFC title game in Arrowhead?s 47-year history. NE lost its last two visits to to KC, last of which was in ?14; Pats? last win here was in ?04. Chiefs are first team ever to score 26+ points in every game; they?re 8-1 at home, 5-4 vs spread as home favorites. This is first time in Brady?s last 70 games that Patriots are an underdog; they?re 3-5 SU on road this season, winning at Bills-Bears-Jets.




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships


LA Rams @ New Orleans

Game 311-312
January 20, 2019 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
138.331
New Orleans
134.836
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+3 1/2); Under

New England @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 20, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.098
Kansas City
146.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
55
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack

More over/under baseball totals for 2019:

74.5? Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox

76.5? Toronto Blue Jays

77? Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds

77.5? San Diego Padres

78.5? Pittsburgh Pirates

82? Colorado Rockies

Tweet of the Day
?I?m not offended by all the dumb blonde jokes because I know I?m not dumb, and I also know that I?m not blonde.?
Dolly Parton, whose birthday was Saturday

Sunday?s quiz
Jim Morris was a science teacher in Texas who tried out for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and pitched in 21 major league games at age 35. What fine actor played Morris in the movie, The Rookie?

Saturday?s quiz
Spurs? coach Gregg Popovich is a graduate of the Air Force Academy.

Friday?s quiz
Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III, the AFL?s first win in a Super Bowl.


*****************************

Sunday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Kentucky 82, Auburn 80? Wildcats led this game 58-41 with 17:00 left; Auburn took the lead 80-79 with 0:32 left, but Kentucky scored with 0:24 left, then Auburn never got the ball to their best player on their last possession and that was that.

Auburn alum Charles Barkley was on ESPN for a segment of this game and he ripped the current NBA product, which I?m sure didn?t thrill his bosses at Turner Broadcasting very much. Barkley complained about the amount of 3-pointers being taken by NBA teams.

It is getting harder to listen to Dick Vitale on the air; he launched into a rant every time the refs went for a replay review. Sounded like he had a plane to catch after the game.

12) Duke 72, Virginia 70? Cavaliers hit a jumper at the buzzer for the back-door cover, but they lose to a Duke team playing without their point guard.

Mike Krzyzewski is only college basketball coach that doesn?t do halftime interviews, yet his son-in-law (Chris Spatola) works for ESPN. Whats up with that? Is it that hard to answer two softball ??s on way to locker room?

11) Are ESPN?s announcers required to mention Zion Williamson EVERY TIME they promo a Duke game, because they do mention his name EVERY TIME they read a Duke promo. You would think if it wasn?t mandated someone wouldn?t do it.

10) James Nunnally is a sub for the Houston Rockets; he is 28 years old, played four years at Cal-Santa Barbara. Here are the professional teams he?s played for:

2012: Kavala, in Greece
2012-14: Bakersfield Jam in the D-League
2014: Texas Legends in the D-League
2014: Hawks, 76ers in the NBA
2014: Santurce in Puerto Rico
2014: Estudiantes in Spain
2014-15: Maccabi Ashdod in Israel
2015-16: Sidigas Avellino in Italy
2016-18: Fenerbahce in Turkey
2018-19: Timberwolves, Rockets in the NBA

Imagine the book this guy could write????

9) Rockets 138, Lakers 134 OT? ESPN had quite a day; big college games at Auburn, Duke were both decided by a hoop, then this game on ABC went OT. James Harden scored 48 points for the Rockets, which these days seems commonplace.

8) Drexel 73, James Madison 68? Dukes led this game 22-4 early, but went 3-12 on foul line and were behind by halftime. Drexel outscored JMU 18-3 on the foul line.

7) Upsets of the Day:
? Elon (+12.5) 76, Wm & Mary 71
? DePaul (+9) 97, Seton Hall 93
? Penn (+9) 77, Temple 70
? Charlotte (+7.5) 55, Louisiana Tech 40? Tech was 1-23 on the arc.
? Towson State (+7) 64, Delaware 63? Towson was down 15 at the half.
? Eastern Illinois (+6.5) 85, Austin Peay 83
? West Virginia (+5.5) 65, Kansas 64
? Niagara (+5.5) 75, Quinnipiac 72
? Missouri (+5.5) 66, Texas A&M 43

6) One college that lost out big-time with all the conference changes a few years ago was UConn, whose sports program has a $40M shortfall this year. Huskies? terrible football team lost $8.7M, their basketball team $5M and women?s basketball team lost $3M.

Big 14 screwed up (in my opinion) when they took Rutgers over UConn, but they care more about football than hoops. Would the Huskies be better off as an independent in football, and a Big East member in basketball?

5) Cal-Irvine 74, Cal State-Northridge 68? Anteaters were down 47-31 at the half, but rallied to avoid this road upset. Mark Gottfried is doing a nice job rebuilding the Northridge program.

4) Nets 145, Rockets 142 OT? This game was Wednesday but it was odd; here is a breakdown of Houston?s shot selection in that game:

3-point shots: 23-70, 32.9%, 69 points
2-point shots: 22-35, 62.9%, 44 points
foul shots: 29-34, 85.3%, 29 points.

Rockets took twice as many 3-point shots as 2-point shots, but they also lost. Gerald Green played 41:00 in this game, was 5-15 from floor, all 3-point shots.

3) When James Harden scored 115 points in consecutive games during the week, none of the 33 baskets he scored in those games were assisted. Lot of holding the ball, 1-on-1 play. Last time Harden scored less than 30 points in a game was December 11, vs Portland. Rockets are 14-5 in 19 games since that night.

2) This made me feel old; there is a high school game on ESPNU Monday, with Sierra Canyon HS in the LA area; Kenyon Martin Jr is a senior on that team. It seems like 2 or 3 years ago that Martin was playing ball at Cincinnati, and then in the NBA. Good luck to the young man.

1) ESPN?s Joe Lunardi does his Bracketology thing for the NCAA tournament every day; he came up with teams from these conferences: Big 14 (10), ACC (8), Big X (7), SEC (6), Big East (5), American (4), A-14 (2), Pac-12 (2).

All the other leagues, the conference tournament will be the deciding factor, unless Nevada loses in the Mountain West, then they would get two teams.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Title Games
January 18, 2019
By Micah Roberts

It's championship weekend and both home teams are floating on the most key number in the NFL which has bookmakers reluctant to move off it. It's a pair 3's in Sunday's NFC and AFC Championship games.

Cash talks, but books don't want to be put in a situation where they can get sided or middled by moving off of -3. But at the same time, they want to get to the right number as soon as possible because 75 percent of the volume is still to come Friday night through Sunday. With the handle being so much larger than previous games this season, being wrong on a move can be extremely costly. But staying on a number too long also has it's consequences. It's a double-edged sword and it can be quite a thrilling tightrope walk for the bookmaker when in the trenches.

The Saints started out as 3.5-point home favorites against the Rams in the NFC and have slowly been bet down to -3 (-120) at several bet shops. The Chiefs started out as 3-point home favorites against the Patriots in the AFC and a few books like Wynn, MGM and Caesars have inched upward to -3 (-120).

The sports book I like to monitor line movement in these big games the most is at the South Point because they use exclusively flat numbers. They never move the juice so everything is always -110 which usually has them having the best number in town when dealing with -3. They've already bounced on and off of Saints -3 to -3.5 on two separate occasions. They've been at -3 since Wednesday.

The South Point has yet to move the Chiefs off -3, but they have been dropping the total often from an opener of 59.5 on Sunday down to 55.5 on Wednesday. Their best scenario?

"Neither game landing 3 for sure," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "We're probably going to need the Over in the Kansas City game."

There was an initial weather report Sunday that suggested Sunday's game in Kansas City could have artic-like conditions with a wind chill below zero degrees. But as of Friday, the forecast called for 31 degrees and winds at 9 mph. It's still cold, but maybe not the type of chill that inspired such a rush to bet the Under.

When they met in Week 6 in Foxborough, the Patriots won 43-40 as 3.5-point favorites. It was the Chiefs' first loss of the season. The total in that game was 59.5.

The Chiefs only allowing 17.4 ppg at home this season is something to think about before wagering, as is Bill Belichick game planning for a playoff game. It's also important to note that the Patriots only won three of eight road games. The last two losses came at Pittsburgh and at Miami. They also had bad losses early in the season at Jacksonville, at Detroit and then Week 10 at Tennessee which was a 34-10 beat down.

"In the AFC, sharps are on the Chiefs and the public is either laying -3 or taking the Patriots on the money-line," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal who has the Patriots getting +145 on the money-line."

It sounds like CG Tech books might like a 2-point Chiefs win.

"It's hard to tell," said Simbal regarding their best scenario as of Friday. "Our futures are good on everyone and we're pretty even in both games. We will definitely need to keep the Rams game Under."

CG Tech books have the Rams-Saints total set at 57 but haven't moved much despite the risk.

William Hill sports books have the Rams getting 56 percent of the tickets written taking +3.5 and +3, but 51 percent of the cash is on the Saints. It's the same type of divide on the money-line as well with 74 percent of the tickets written taking the Rams and +160 while 82 percent of the actual cash is on the Saints -180. The total Over 57 is the preferred play as well.

William Hill has 54 percent of the tickets written and cash wagered on the Chiefs laying -3. On the money-line, 71 percent of the tickets are on the Patriots taking +135 while 53 percent of the cash is on the Chiefs -155. They're all over the Under as well in cash and tickets written.

Station Casinos sports books will be rooting for Saints to the Under and Patriots to the Over.

Best guess where the lines in each game go? I would guess the Chiefs get to -3.5 while the Saints stay at -3.

Also, there's a larger than usual assortment of props this week signifying the importance of each game while also getting in some practice for setting up over 300 Super Bowl props next week.