Cnotes NFL Picks

[Cnotes53]

Saints-Eagles Best Bet
January 11, 2019
By YouWager.eu

NFC Divisional Playoffs Betting Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

The teams who survived the Wild Card Round last weekend will have had very little time to celebrate their success, as it?s now onto the Divisional Round.

Next up will be the teams who earned a bye in the opening round, and while that means that the players on those teams will have earned some rest, it also means that they may come into this weekend just a little bit rusty. This is particularly true of the New Orleans Saints, as they used the final week of the regular season as an opportunity to rest some of their key players after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC during the previous weekend.

There are some who think that these rests are a good idea, as it certainly helps avoid injuries to key personnel at a crucial part of the season, but there are also those who believe that it is tough for players to get back up to a high level of play after sitting out. The Saints are going to need to be at their best this weekend versus a Philadelphia Eagles team that has been rolling for a few weeks now.

The Saints are an 8-point favorite, with the point total set at 51?.

Let?s get to our expert betting prediction right now thanks to our YouWager.eu friends.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
When: Sunday, January 13 at 4:40 PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
TV: FOX
YouWager.eu Odds: New Orleans Saints -8 -110 | -380 | U 51? -110

Why bet on the Philadelphia Eagles

The current run that the Eagles are on is beginning to look a lot like the one that took them all the way to the Super Bowl last season. Once again, it is back-up QB Nick Foles who is pulling all the strings for a team that made it into the postseason by the very skin of their teeth. They won 5 of their last 6 regular season games, but they also needed help along the way, just as they did last week in their 16-15 win over the Chicago Bears in the Wild Card Game.

The Bears were kicking a field goal to win and move on, but they saw the ball hit the upright and the crossbar before bouncing out. All of that aside, the Eagles are a solid 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, but they have not had that level of success in New Orleans, going 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 trips there.

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Why bet on the New Orleans Saints

The Saints come into this one after losing their final game of the season, but as we mentioned earlier, that was a game were the majority of their starters enjoyed the action from the sidelines.

This is a team that has turned the Mercedes-Benz Superdome into a fortress, posting 7-1 SU records in each of the last 2 seasons for a 14-2 SU record overall. That would appear to make them a good pick here, but what about the point total? It has been the under that has hit in 5 of the last 7 games for the Saints, but things are a little different in the Dome, where they are 9-4 O/U in their last 13.

Points seem to be scored often when these two go head to head, with 6 of the last 9 meetings going OVER.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction As good as the Saints are, it?s tough to imagine them making an early postseason exit for the second straight year. The Eagles luck finally runs out this weekend, as I think the New Orleans Saints will win this one going away.

Predicted Score: Philadelphia Eagles 17 New Orleans Saints 30

 

[Cnotes53]

DP - Chargers at Patriots
January 12, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Chargers (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) had high expectations entering their second season in Los Angeles following a 9-7 campaign. The Lightning Bolts ended 2017 by winning nine of their last 12 games with plenty of momentum heading into 2018, but L.A. stumbled to a 1-2 start. From there, the Chargers ripped off six consecutive victories, while limiting five straight opponents to 19 points or less.

Los Angeles had an opportunity to capture the AFC West title with a late surge after shocking Kansas City in Week 15 to improve to 11-3. However, the Chargers lost at home to Baltimore in Week 16, opening up the door for the Chiefs to grab the division title and eventually the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Interestingly enough, the Chargers didn?t lose a road game outside of Los Angeles this season as the Bolts fell to the Rams in Week 3 at the Coliseum.

The Lightning Bolts avenged a Week 16 loss to the Ravens by holding off Baltimore last Sunday, 23-17 as three-point underdogs. After kicking four field goals, Los Angeles finally reached the end zone in the fourth quarter on a Melvin Gordon one-yard touchdown to give the Chargers a 20-3 advantage.

For the 15th time in 16 seasons, the Patriots (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) captured the AFC East championship in spite of compiling their worst record since 2009. New England was the only team in the division to finish with a winning record in the division, while overcoming an early 1-2 start. The Patriots ripped off six consecutive victories, including high-scoring home wins over the Colts and Chiefs and a road triumph over the Bears in a three-week span.

Two late road losses at Miami and Pittsburgh cost New England home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. However, the Patriots rebounded in the final two weeks at home with divisional wins over the Bills and Jets to pick up a first-round bye for the ninth straight season. New England closed the campaign with an 8-1 run to the UNDER, including four consecutive UNDERS at Gillette Stadium.

WHO TO WATCH

Philip Rivers put together another spectacular season for Los Angeles by eclipsing the 30-touchdown mark for the fourth time in six seasons by tossing 32 touchdown passes. Six of Rivers? 12 interceptions on the season came in the final three weeks, including two against Baltimore in Week 16. Gordon finished shy of his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season by racking up 885 yards in 12 games, as the Chargers? tailback missed three games down the stretch. Wide receiver Keenan Allen accumulated 1,196 yards through the air, but was limited to 37 yards against the Ravens last week.

Tom Brady posted his 10th career 4,000-yard passing season with 4,355 yards, while tossing 29 touchdown passes. Amazingly, Brady threw for 300 yards or fewer in 11 of 16 games, compared to 10 efforts of 300 or more yards in 2017, when the Patriots reached the Super Bowl. Rookie running back Sony Michel put up 958 yards in his first season out of Georgia, including three 100-yard games at home. The Patriots didn?t possess a receiver that compiled more than 850 yards (Julian Edelman), while tight end Rob Gronkowski picked up 26 yards or fewer in three of his final four games of the season.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

Two teams finished with 7-1 road records this season, the Saints and the Chargers. Los Angeles never owned a real home-field advantage at StubHub Center, but the Lightning Bolts closed the season with six consecutive away victories. The Chargers swept their AFC West counterparts on the highway, while winning five games in the underdog role against the Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks, Browns, and Ravens.

The Patriots were the lone team in the NFL that didn?t lose a home contest by going 8-0 at Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2013. Bill Belichick?s squad helped bettors by putting together a 6-2 ATS record at home, including a 3-1 ATS mark as a single-digit home favorite. Since allowing 40 points to the Chiefs in Week 6, the Patriots yielded a total of 42 points in their final four contests at Gillette.

SERIES HISTORY

This series has been advantage Brady over Rivers as New England is 7-1 against San Diego/Los Angeles in the last eight meetings. The lone victory for Rivers and the Chargers in this span came in 2008 at home, but Brady was sidelined due to an ACL injury.

The two teams didn?t meet this season, but the Patriots captured the previous matchup in 2017 at Gillette Stadium, 21-13 to cash as 6 ?-point favorites. Following an 87-yard touchdown run by Gordon midway through the first quarter, the Patriots scored the next 18 points, including three field goals by Stephen Gostkowski, who kicked four in the game.

Since 2006, the Patriots have eliminated the Chargers twice in the playoffs. In the last matchup in the 2007 AFC Championship, the Patriots held off the Lightning Bolts, 21-12, but San Diego cashed as 14-point underdogs in the season that New England won 19 consecutive games before losing in the Super Bowl to the Giants. The Chargers were held out of the end zone that day in spite of intercepting Brady three times.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

The Chargers are in the playoffs for only the second time since 2010, as Los Angeles advanced to the divisional playoffs in 2013. Rivers improved to 4-0 in the Wild Card round in his career following last week?s win over Baltimore, but is 1-4 in the Divisional Playoffs. The only road win in the Divisional round came in 2007 at Indianapolis, prior to the AFC Championship loss at New England.

The Patriots have won seven consecutive games in the Divisional round, including a 35-14 rout of Tennessee last season. New England has covered in six of those games, while last losing in this round in 2010 to the Jets. New England is seeking its eighth consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship, but the Pats will have to travel to Kansas City if they win, as they have lost their last two conference title games on the road.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER

Los Angeles survived last week?s grind-it-out win at Baltimore as VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson looks back, ?Kicking woes and big turnovers have been the norm for the Chargers in big games but a lot went right as Los Angeles was victorious in a tough battle with Baltimore last week. The Chargers had a 243-229 yardage edge and won with five Mike Badgley field goals, needing to survive a tense fourth quarter as the Ravens waged a formidable comeback threat. The Chargers gained 5.0 yards per pass attempt and just 2.7 yards per rush in last week?s win and now draw a third consecutive road game, again getting an early start east coast game against a Patriots squad that has hosted a divisional round game in nine straight seasons.?

Will this be a shootout or a defensive battle on Sunday? ?The scoring numbers in the regular season were nearly identical for these teams sitting within a half-point on average on both sides of the ball. Most statistical categories paint a rather even contest with New England slightly more productive on offense and the Chargers slightly stronger on defense. The big outliers come on the sidelines with Belichick?s all-time great track record with five Super Bowl titles with a 28-11 postseason record. Anthony Lynn was a winner in his first playoff game last week, besting another head coach with an all-time great postseason record and now 22-11 in his career his win percentage comes close to Belichick,? Nelson notes.

FUTURE ODDS

The Patriots enter Sunday?s matchup at 5/2 odds to win the AFC Championship at BetOnline.ag, while the Chargers aren?t far behind at 4/1. As far as Super Bowl odds go, New England is 6/1, while Los Angeles is 8/1. New England opened up as 4 ?-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dipped to -4 at many books, while the total sits at 47 ?.

 

[Cnotes53]

Chargers @ Patriots- New England won in this round the last seven years (5-1-1 vs spread); in Brady era, they?re 3-0-2 vs spread as #2-seed in this round. Patriots won last four games with LA, by 3-14-9-8 points. Chargers won 12 of their last 14 games after a 1-2 start; Rivers is 5-5 in playoff games, Brady has won five Super Bowls. LA is 9-0 outside of LA this season, with only road loss vs Rams in Coliseum. This is Chargers? 3rd straight week on road; they?re 5-1 vs spread when getting points this season. Patriots are 8-0 at home this year (6-2 vs spread); their last six wins were all by 12+ points. Last five years, #2-seeds are 2-7-1 vs spread in this round, 6-4 SU. Four of last five Charger games, eight of last nine Patriot games stayed under the total.

Eagles @ Saints- Saints (-7) crushed Philly 48-7 back in Week 11, outgaining Eagles 546-196, with +3 turnover ratio. Wentz played that game for Eagles; Foles is on 4-0 playoff run for Philly. Iggles are 6-1 since loss in Superdome, winning last four games, three of which were on road- this is their 5th road game in six weeks. Eagles are 2-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. New Orleans is 3-4 vs spread as a home favorite this year; they?re 3-2 SU in last five games, but Brees didn?t play in Week 17 loss to Carolina. Saints won four of last five games with Philly, which last won on Bourbon Street in ?07. #1 seeds are 9-1 SU in this round the last five years (6-4 vs spread). Five of Saints? last seven games stayed under total; under is 7-4 in Eagles? last 11 games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, January 13

LA Chargers @ New England

Game 305-306
January 13, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
134.100
New England
141.088
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 4
47
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-4); Under

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

Game 307-308
January 13, 2019 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
130.353
New Orleans
142.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Under


---------------------------------


Sunday, January 13

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LA CHARGERS (13 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 5) - 1/13/2019, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-56 ATS (+25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
LA CHARGERS is 101-71 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/13/2019, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 13

Los Angeles Chargers

LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
LA Chargers is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing New England
LA Chargers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
LA Chargers is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England

New England Patriots

New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 9 games
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

DP- Eagles at Saints
Tony Mejia

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-8. 51.5), 4:40 pm ET, FOX

To be the champ, you?ve got to beat the champs.

Ric Flair didn?t come up with that as an original thought, but he?s gotten full credit for popularizing it, which is fair. ?To be the man, you?ve got to beat the man? doesn?t necessarily ring true in the NFL since you can win a Super Bowl without having to go through the reigning champion, but the Eagles managed to do exactly that last Feb. 4, dethroning New England.

The Saints, currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl (5-to-2 at Westgate Superbook), adding the Eagles to their list of victims would make for a nice touch. If Philadelphia pulls off an upset, it would increase the legend of backup QB and reigning Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles in addition to putting them one win away from another shot at a ring.

The Rams await the winner of this final divisional playoff matchup and will either visit the Saints for a duel between the NFC?s top-scoring teams or host the Eagles for the second time in just over a month.

Philadelphia is only alive because they survived the Rams in L.A. in Week 15 as nearly-two touchdown underdogs, won a wild game against the Texans at home the next Sunday and then blanked the overmatched Redskins while getting help from the Bears to close December. In a morbid coincidence if you?re Chicago, the fact it went into Minnesota and upset the Vikings in Week 17, set up last week?s game against the Eagles.

Chicago kicker Cody Parkey got his game-winning field goal attempt tipped and ultimately clanked off the upright before falling harmlessly to the ground to ensure an upset, so the Eagles are clearly on their ninth life as they invade the Superdome.

Foles executed on a fourth-down TD pass to Golden Tate to finish off a wild go-ahead drive against the NFL?s most feared defense last weekend and now looks to succeed where predecessor Carson Wentz failed. Back on Nov. 18, the Saints intercepted Philly?s franchise QB three times in a 48-7 rout, dropping the Eagles to 4-6 on the season.

What makes the Eagles most dangerous in this return trip to the Superdome is that they?ve stared their demise in the eyes multiple times and have lived to tell about it. After getting back to .500, Wentz being lost for the season after an OT loss to the Cowboys saw the team?s odds plummet from 30-to-1 to win the NFC and 60-to-1 to repeat as champs to 150-to-1 and 300-to-1 at the Westgate Superbook.

They?ve come all the way back by getting healthier and riding Foles? arm, which has really produced results down the stretch. The Eagles got only a Josh Adams touchdown run in the first meeting between these teams and amassed 156 yards through the air, so head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Mike Groh have to put a more effective game plan together to face a Saints defense that is often overshadowed by Drew Brees and the flashy offense but has been great in its own right.

Although they gave up 61 points in the final two regular-season games, the Saints went through a six-game stretch between Nov. 11-Dec. 17 where they allowed an average of 12.3 points. Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Rankins have been tremendous up front, while the New Orleans secondary has really flourished. Philadelphia will likely try to break big plays to tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, but they?ll need to establish the running game to truly have success on the road. The Saints ranked second in the NFL in allowing just 80.2 yards per game.

Left tackle Jason Peters was the Eagles? biggest injury concern last week but played well through a nagging quad issue and is good to go here. The Eagles didn?t play a perfect game against the Bears last week, but did enough when it had to against an elite defense to inspire confidence that they?ll be able to execute inside a dome without the elements being a factor.

It?s a given that the Saints will move the ball against an Eagles defense they torched so effectively that five different players scored touchdowns, which doesn?t include Brees, who threw for four. New Orleans handed the Eagles the worst loss ever suffered by a Super Bowl champ, the most lopsided setback suffered under Pederson.

There are a number of names back from a championship-winning defense, but it hasn?t exactly been championship-caliber at all this season. Fletcher Cox remains a force up front, but a secondary that was viewed as a weakness before holding up nicely in Chicago will now get a grueling test from Brees, an effective group of receivers and running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Philadelphia will get a key body back, which you can read about below in the injury report.

New Orleans went 6-2 at home this season, faltering in the season opener against Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Tampa Bay and a setback to Carolina in the meaningless finale. The Eagles are 5-4 on the road after winning in Chicago and are 0-2 in enclosed stadiums.

This will be the second playoff game matching Brees and Foles. The teams met in the Wild Card round after the ?13 season in a game that kicker Shayne Graham won on a 32-yard FG at the gun after Ertz game Philadelphia the lead on a touchdown reception from Foles with 4:54 to go. New Orleans also beat Philadelphia in the divisional round of ?06 season, winning 27-24 by keeping the Eagles out of the end zone after the opening drive of the second half. All of the results of Brees? encounters against Philly since joining the Saints are available below.

New Orleans would prefer a lot less drama in this contest than it has had to survive through in the last two playoff matchups with the Eagles, but all that matters is getting through. For that reason, taking the points might be tempting since Philadelphia has been so hard to eliminate these past few weeks. Clearly, a fighting spirit remains. Is there anything left? The Eagles are 2-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season.

Philadelphia Eagles
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Preseason odds to win NFC East: 5/7
Odds to win NFC (Preseason/Current): 7/1 to 9/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (Preseason/Current): 14/1 to 18/1

New Orleans Saints
Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Preseason Odds to win NFC South: 6/5
Odds to win NFC (Preseason/Current): 7/1 to 2/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (Preseason/Current): 14/1 to 9/2

FUTURES OUTCOMES/LINE MOVEMENT

The Saints came through as the NFC South favorite, while Dallas cashed at +350 over the favored defending champion Eagles (5-to-7) to win NFC East futures. The Eagles' NFC and Super Bowl odds were actually better prior to Week 1 than they are entering this divisional playoff since they went into last week's Wild card game against the Bears at 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 15-to-1 to win the NFC before seeing those odds improve to their current levels post-upset.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Saints opened at -10.5 at some offshores after Philadelphia upset Chicago, but most books favored New Orleans by 9. Money came in on the defending champs to knock the spread down to 7.5 earlier in the week, but most books now list the Saints as a chalk of 8/8.5. New Orleans opened at -400 on the money line and has seen that number come down to the -350 to -380 range. If you like Philly outright, a payout on a road upset at the Superdome would get you +300 to +325.

INJURY CONCERNS

New Orleans is healthier than it has been all season, giving talented tackle Terron Armstead (shoulder) and guard Larry Warford (knee) a clean bill of health to help protect Brees.

The Eagles are without multiple regulars in their secondary, but that's not a new issue and the replacements who have taken their spots really stepped up last week. Reinforcements are on their way since CB Sidney Jones (hamstring) is set to return. WR Mike Wallace (ankle) is also in line to return after missing the past few weeks.

TOTAL TALK

Sunday afternoon's total opened at 51 or 51.5 depending on the book. It got down to 50.5 at most shops mid-week but is now back in the 51/51.5 range. There are no weather concerns to monitor since this divisional playoff will be played indoors. The 'over' has prevailed in the last two Saints games but still went just 7-9 due to totals being set so high on the NFL's third-highest scoring team. This will likely be the 14th game involving New Orelans that closes with a number higher than 50. The 'under' is 10-7 in Eagles' games..

RECENT MEETINGS (New Orleans 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS last eight; OVER 5-3)

11/18/18 New Orleans vs. Philadelphia 48-7 (NO -7, 56.5)
10/11/15 Philadelphia 39-17 vs. New Orleans (PHI -6, 49.5)
1/4/14 New Orleans 26-24 at Philadelphia (NO +3, 54.5)
11/5/12 New Orleans 28-13 vs. Philadelphia (NO -3, 52)
9/20/09 New Orleans 48-22 at Philadelphia (NO -2.5, 46)
12/23/07 Philadelphia 38-23 at New Orleans (PHI +3, 48)
1/13/07 New Orleans 27-24 vs. Philadelphia (PHI +4.5, 48.5)
10/15/06 New Orleans 27-24 vs. Philadelphia (NO +3, 47)

 

[Cnotes53]

SELECTION LINE AMOUNT

NE -4.0
X
LAC at NE U 47.5
X
PHI +8.0
X
PHI at NO O 52.5
X

 

[Cnotes53]

Saints topple Eagles 20-14; Pats rout Chargers 41-28
January 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS (AP) The New Orleans Saints got two touchdown passes from Drew Brees, two interceptions by Marcus Lattimore, and rallied from a 14-point deficit to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 Sunday to advance to the NFC championship game.

Using a dominant ball-control offense after a horrendous start, Brees took the Saints (14-3) on scoring drives of 92, 79 and 67 yards. And a few gambles paid off to assure New Orleans will host the Rams (13-4) next Sunday for a spot in the Super Bowl.

Los Angeles, which fell 45-35 at the Superdome in November, will try again next week, with the winner taking on either Kansas City or New England in the Super Bowl in Atlanta. The Saints' win finished off a sweep of the divisional round by teams coming off byes.

Wil Lutz added two field goals for the Saints, who last got this far in 2009, when they won the Super Bowl.

Philadelphia (10-8) will not repeat as NFL champion; no team has done so since the 2004 Patriots.

This was really two games in one. Philly scored on its first two drives as the Saints could do virtually nothing right.

After that opening period, it was all New Orleans, yet the resilient Eagles kept it close enough that when Lutz missed a 52-yard field goal with 2:58 remaining, they were only one-score behind.

Nick Foles, the hero of last year's Super Bowl run, got them in position for yet another late winning score - just like last week at Chicago and last February against New England for the championship.

Then Alshon Jeffery couldn't handle a second-down pass from the Saints 27 and Lattimore grabbed his second interception to clinch the win.

PATRIOTS 41, CHARGERS 28

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Sony Michel ran for 129 yards and had three touchdowns and New England beat Los Angeles in the divisional playoffs to earn its eighth straight trip to the AFC championship game.

New England (12-5) will play at Kansas City in next week's AFC title game. The Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 in Foxborough in Week 6. The Patriots finished 9-0 at home this season.

It is the 13th conference championship game appearance by the Patriots during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.

The Chargers (13-5) haven't reached the AFC title game since the 2007 season.

Philip Rivers finished 25 of 51 for 331 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He is 0-5 in games played in Foxborough, including 0-3 in the postseason.

Brady finished 34 of 44 for 343 yards and a touchdown. He improves to 8-0 as a starter against Rivers, who drops to 1-8 against New England all-time.

James White tied Darren Sproles' NFL postseason record with 15 catches, totaling 97 yards.

New England scored on its first four possessions of the game to build a 35-7 halftime lead.

Julian Edelman had nine catches for 151 yards.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

01/12/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -100
01/12/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
01/06/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
01/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/30/2018 16-9-0 64.00% +30.50
12/24/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/23/2018 11-13-1 45.83% -16.50
12/22/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/17/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/16/2018 11-12-1 47.83% -11.00
12/15/2018 3-0-1 100.00% +15.00
12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............83-71-0.....53.89%....+24.50

********************

Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

01/12/2019............2 - 0................+10.00.....................0 - 2................-11.00............-1.00
01/12/2019............0 - 2.................-11.00.....................2 - 0................+10.00...........-1.00
01/06/2019............1 - 1.................-0.50.......................1 - 1................-0.50..............-1.00
01/05/2019............2 - 0................+10.00.....................0 - 2................-11.00............-1.00
12/30/2018............6 - 2................+24.00.....................7 - 5................+7.50............+31.50
12/24/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................1 - 0................+5.00...........+10.00
12/23/2018............6 - 3................+13.50.....................3 - 5................-12.50...........+1.00
12/22/2018............1 - 1.................-0.50.......................1 - 1.................-0.50............-1.00
12/17/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/16/2018............2 - 5................-17.50......................5 - 2................+14.00..........-3.50
12/15/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................2 - 0................+10.00.........+15.00
12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals..................32 - 22...............+44.00....................29 - 29...............-4.50...........+39.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Favorites help books win in DP
January 13, 2019
By Micah Roberts

One week after seeing all four road underdogs cover in the Wild Card round, the Divisional Playoffs brought out the heavy hitters -- the No. 1 and 2 seeds from each conference -- that had last week off and they responded well. All four of them won and advanced to next week's Conference Championship game and three of them covered the spread.

The Chiefs' 31-13 win against the Colts (+4.5) Saturday and the Patriots' 41-28 win Sunday against the Chargers (+3.5) ended up being huge wins for just about every sports book and the key to a winning weekend. The public was all over both those underdogs and some sharp groups had pushed the numbers down in each, although one sharp group played the Chiefs multiple times.

So much for Tom Brady getting old, or the Bill Belichick reign coming to end, which were some of the comments heard last week prior to the Patriots embarrassing the Chargers. Brady and the Patriots are now playing in a record eighth straight AFC Championship game.

The Patriots scored in seven of their first nine possessions, including touchdowns on their first four to take a 28-7 lead. It was such a dominating start that the Westgate Superbook posted next week's AFC Championship game numbers prior to halftime. This was at 11:15 am PT with an entire half to go. It's the earliest I can ever remember a playoff price posted before while one of the teams were still playing.

"We couldn't wait. AFC Championship on the board." tweeted VP Jay Kornegay, who posted the Chiefs as 3-point home favorites with a massive total set at 59. It's supposed to be a sunny 19 degrees at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday with no chance precipitation. And yes, the forecast said sunny. The Superbook was immediately bet down to 57.5 and Patriots money moved the juice to Chiefs -3 EVEN.

"The Patriots game was really good for us," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "I don't think I've ever been able to root for the Patriots at home during the playoffs. It was kind of nice, and they blew the Chargers out so we didn't have to sweat the decision."

During the Brady era, the Patriots have always been one of the most popular public wagers. This week, the public outsmarted themselves by jumping on the Chargers wagon and riding the underdogs, a trend that became extremely popular that was riding a 14-1 ATS run over the past two postseasons.

The Chiefs played at New England (-4) during Week 6 and were handed their first loss of the season, 43-40, but the Chiefs got the money. It seems like so long ago, but the Chiefs were public darlings early on because of covering the spread in their first seven games.

"Booking the Saints game was a little bit different for us because of our locations outside of Nevada," said Stoneback who opened the Saints -8.5, flashed a -8 and -9 at one point before closing -8.5. "In Mississippi, we had all Saints money and in New Jersey, it was mostly Eagles' action and then here in Las Vegas it was a mix tilted slightly to the Eagles. I had to get a calculator out to add up all the total risk and surprisingly the difference wasn't that much."

It was one late wager that turned the MGM books into rooting for the Saints.

"We have been booked almost even to the side had it not been for casino player betting $50,000 on the Eagles money-line at +320 just before kickoff," Stoneback said.

They got the bookmakers dream in the Saints 20-14 win: the favorite wins in a big game but doesn't cover the spread. In big games, the masses love taking shots with large underdogs to win outright.

It was a weird game with the Eagles going up 14-0 in the first-quarter while Drew Brees and the Saints defense were sleepwalking or rusty from the bye and taking Week 17 off. But the Saints woke up and almost covered the spread. A missed 52-yard field goal attempt by Will Lutz with 2:58 remaining would have put the Saints up by 9 points.

"We had another house player betting the Eagles-Saints Over 52.5 for double limits ($10,000) and each time he'd bet it we'd move to 53 and then sharp money would come and play the Under. This happened about a dozen times so the total was a significant decision for us."

The house player was playing bad numbers for large money and didn't care. Despite his play and Under being the riskiest, MGM books still closed below what he played at 52. CG Technology books closed a city-low of 51.5, which is the number MGM started with last week.

"The Pats game was fantastic," Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick when asked how huge the win was. "The Eagles outright win and Under would have been the best case scenario for us, but we'll take the cover. The Saints and Over would have been a disaster."

Saturday's two games also turned out well for the books despite an all-way teaser hitting in the Rams' 30-22 home win against the Cowboys. The Rams (-7) got the slim cover and went Over 49.5.

"The Chiefs was great for us by knocking down the Colts teasers as well as the side, total (55.5) and money-line (-190)." said McCormick. "The all-way teaser is never good."

Prior to the four games, William Hill sports books reported the Colts had 79 percent of the cash wagered at their bet shops in that game, the Cowboys 59 percent, the Patriots 51 percent and the Saints 54 percent. Their money-lines were also tilted the underdog's way with 57 percent of the cash on the Eagles (+310) and 55 percent on the Chargers (+170).

"It ended being up a very good day," William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said Saturday night. "That Chiefs game was a monster."

 

[Cnotes53]

Championship Notes
January 13, 2019
By VI News

NFC Championship - History

L.A. Rams at New Orleans (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Los Angeles Road Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened New Orleans -3 (-120) with a total of 55 ?. They pushed quickly to -3 ? (Even) while early ?over? money nudged the total to 57. BookMaker.eu sent out New Orleans -3 ? with a total of 56 ?. The line has held steady but the total was pushed to 57.

Head-to-Head: The two teams met at the Superdome on Nov. 4 and New Orleans captured a 45-35 win over Los Angeles as a two-point underdog. The Saints led 35-17 at halftime but the Rams tied the game early in the fourth quarter with 18 unanswered points. New Orleans countered with a 10-0 run to win the game. Both the Saints (487) and Rams (483) racked up plenty of yards and they each committed one turnover. The difference in the game was converting on third and fourth down as New Orleans was 9-of-14 (64%) while the Rams only managed to connect on 30 percent (3-of-10) in the Week 9 matchup.

The pair also met in each of the last two regular seasons as well and the home team captured both of those contests as well. The Saints captured a 49-21 blowout win in 2016 while Los Angeles earned a 26-20 win at the Coliseum in 2017.

Including those results, the Rams have dropped their last three trips to the Superdome. The last win for the franchise came in 2007 when Marc Bulger was the quarterback for the St. Louis Rams.

Playoff Notes: Saturday?s 30-22 win over Dallas in the Divisional Round was the first playoff win for Los Angeles since 2005. Head coach Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff both own career 1-1 records in the postseason but both contests occurred at home.

New Orleans improved to 8-5 in the playoffs with QB Drew Brees under center and that includes a perfect 6-0 record at home. Make a note that the Saints are just 2-4 against the spread in those wins and that includes last Sunday?s non-cover (-8) in their 20-14 win over Philadelphia in the Divisional Round.

Total Notes: The Rams have watched the ?over? go 9-8 this season, which includes the high side ticket from last Saturday against Dallas. On the road, Los Angeles has been a great ?under? wager (6-2) and one of the two ?over? tickets came in the aforementioned game at New Orleans.

The 34 combined points in Sunday?s playoff game against Philadelphia was the lowest this season and the game easily went ?under? the total. New Orleans was 10-7 overall to the low side but New Orleans watched the ?over? go 5-4 at the Superdome. Prior to the ?under? result versus Philadelphia last Sunday, the Saints had seen the ?over? cash in 10 straight home playoff games and that included a 5-0 run with Brees.

AFC Championship - History

New England at Kansas City (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)

New England Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-5-1 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a three-point home favorite over New England. BetOnline.ag, a major offshore betting outfit, opened the Chiefs at -3 as well.

The SuperBook sent out a total of 58. BetOnline.ag opened at 57 ?.

Head-to-Head: Since 2000, the Patriots have won seven of 10 meetings with the Chiefs, while the last four meetings have finished 'over' the total. New England is making its first trip to Kansas City since 2014 when the Chiefs blitzed the Patriots on a Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium in a 41-14 beatdown as 2 ?-point underdogs.

The most recent matchup took place this season at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots held off the Chiefs, 43-40 in Week 6. Kansas City managed a slight cover as 3 ?-point underdogs, while both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady each topped the 340-yard mark. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes, but the Patriots overcame blowing a 15-point lead thanks to a last-second field goal by Stephen Gostkowski.

Playoff Notes: The Patriots are playing in their eighth consecutive AFC championship, as New England has posted a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS mark in this stretch. In the last two road AFC title games, the Patriots have lost at Denver in 2013 and 2015. The last away victory in the conference championship came in 2004 at Pittsburgh.

Kansas City has never hosted an AFC championship game before as the Chiefs improved to 2-10 in the last 12 postseason contests since 1994, while picking up their first playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium since 1993.

Amazingly, this is only the second all-time meeting in the playoffs between New England and Kansas City, as the Patriots knocked out the Chiefs in the 2015 divisional playoffs, 27-20.

Total Notes: Since posting an 'over' against the 49ers in Week 3, the Chiefs are 5-2-1 to the 'under' in the last eight games at Arrowhead Stadium. In five of those contests, the Chiefs have held their opponents to 14 points or less. In the last three playoff games in Kansas City, the 'under' has cashed, while four of the past five postseason contests for the Chiefs have gone 'under.'

The Patriots are 5-3 to the 'under' this season away from Gillette Stadium, while closing the season on an 8-1 'under' run. However, that streak came to a halt in New England's blowout of Los Angeles in the divisional round.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Today, Divisional Playoffs
January 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Sunday, Jan. 20

L.A. Rams vs. New Orleans, 3:05 p.m. EST. Jared Goff and the Rams (14-3) beat Dallas 30-22 to reach the NFC championship game for the first time in 17 years. The long-struggling Rams had won only one postseason game since their previous trip to the Super Bowl in February 2002. Drew Brees and the Saints (13-4) reached the NFC title game for the first time since 2009, when they won the Super Bowl, by defeating defending league champion Philadelphia 20-14.

---

New England at Kansas City, 6:40 p.m. EST. Tom Brady and the Patriots (12-5) are in the AFC title game for the eighth straight year after beating the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 in the divisional round. New England will be looking to make its third straight Super Bowl appearance, and fourth in five years, with a win. Patrick Mahomes and the high-scoring Chiefs (13-4) will host the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history after beating Indianapolis 31-13. Kansas City has not been to the Super Bowl since January 1970.

---

STARS

Passing

- Tom Brady, Patriots, finished 34 of 44 for 343 yards and a touchdown as New England advanced to the AFC championship game for the eighth straight year with a 41-28 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Drew Brees, Saints, took New Orleans on scoring drives of 92, 79 and 67 yards after falling behind 14-0 and finished 28 of 38 for 301 yards and two TDs with one interception in a 20-14 win over Philadelphia.

---

Rushing

- Sony Michel, Patriots, ran for 129 yards and had three touchdowns to help lead New England past the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28.

- Alvin Kamara, Saints, had 71 yards rushing on 16 carries and added 35 yards on four catches in New Orleans' 20-14 win over Philadelphia.

---

Receiving

- James White, Patriots, tied Darren Sproles' NFL postseason record with 15 catches, totaling 97 yards, in New England's 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Michael Thomas, Saints, set a franchise playoff mark with 171 yards receiving on 12 receptions, adding a touchdown to help New Orleans top Philadelphia 20-14.

---

Special Teams

- Albert McClellan, Patriots, recovered a fumbled punt return late in the second quarter to help set up a scoring drive for the Patriots in a 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Wil Lutz, Saints, booted two field goals and converted both extra-point attempts while also missing on a 52-yard attempt in New Orleans' 20-14 win over Philadelphia.

---

Defense

- Marshon Lattimore, Saints, had two interceptions, including one to seal the win with 1:52 left as New Orleans topped Philadelphia 20-14.

- Adrian Clayborn and Dont'a Hightower, Patriots, each had a sack in New England's 41-28 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

---

STREAKS & STATS

With Kansas City, the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans and New England winning, it marked the first time in NFL history that the league's top four scoring offenses made the conference championship games, according to STATS. ... New England earned its eighth straight trip to the AFC championship game with a 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, extending its NFL-record streak. With the Patriots playing next Sunday at Kansas City, they finished 9-0 at home this season. ... New England will make its 13th conference championship game appearance with coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. ... Brady improved to 8-0 as a starter against the Chargers' Philip Rivers, who dropped to 1-8 against New England all-time. ... Brady has a touchdown pass in 13 straight postseason games, tied for the third-longest streak since 1950. Only Brett Favre (20) and Brady himself (18 from 2001-11) have longer streaks. ... The Patriots are the second team in league history to score a touchdown on each of the first four drives of a playoff game, joining the 2000 Indianapolis Colts (in a first-round game against Denver). ... Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles joined Pittsburgh QB Kordell Stewart and New York Jets running back Freeman McNeil as the only players in the Super Bowl era with at least one TD on a pass, catch and a run in their playoff careers.

---

MILESTONES

New England's James White tied Darren Sproles' NFL postseason record with 15 catches, totaling 97 yards, in the Patriots' 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Sproles set the mark in January 2012 with New Orleans against San Francisco. ... Julian Edelman had nine catches for 151 yards, giving him the most career 100-yard receiving games in Patriots playoff history with five. ... Tom Brady extended his postseason record with his 15th career 300-yard passing game. ... New Orleans' Michael Thomas set the franchise playoff record with 171 yards receiving on 12 catches in the Saints' 20-14 win over Philadelphia.

---

WELL-RESTED

All four teams with byes in the wild-card round - Kansas City, New England, New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams - won their games in the divisional round. It's also the first time since 2015 - Denver, New England, Carolina and Arizona - that the top two seeds in both conferences advanced to the AFC/NFC title games.

---

BREES-ING BACK

Drew Brees threw an interception and had a fumble that was recovered by teammate Ryan Ramczyk in the opening period. He bounced back from that rough start and took the Saints on scoring drives of 92, 79 and 67 yards after falling behind 14-0, helping New Orleans top Philadelphia 20-14. Brees went 28 of 38 for 301 yards, including had 2-yard touchdown passes to rookie Keith Kirkwood and All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas, who had 12 receptions for a franchise playoff-record 171 yards.

---

CRY ME A RIVERS

Philip Rivers was 25 of 51 for 331 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in Los Angeles' 41-28 loss at New England, falling to 0-5 in games played in Foxborough - including 0-3 in the postseason. Rivers dropped to 1-8 overall against New England in his career.

---

NEW CHAMP

Philadelphia's 20-14 loss at New Orleans means the Eagles will not repeat as the NFL champion. No team has won the Super Bowl in consecutive years since the 2004 Patriots.

---

SUPER SONY

Sony Michel became the second rookie in Patriots history to have a rushing touchdown in the postseason, finishing with three in New England's 41-28 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. He joined fellow Georgia alum, Robert Edwards, who ran for a touchdown as a rookie in New England's 1998 wild-card loss to Jacksonville. Michel also became the first New England player with two rushing TDs in the first quarter of a playoff game since LeGarrette Blount did it in the 2013 divisional-round win against Indianapolis.

---

SIDELINED

Patriots guard Shaq Mason left New England's 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the fourth quarter. ... New Orleans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins went down midway in the first quarter of the Saints' 20-14 win over Philadelphia, unable to put any weight on his left foot. Two plays later, Eagles right guard Brandon Brooks hurt his right leg and departed. Both players were carted off the field.

---

SPEAKING

''It's going to be a good game. They're a good team. We played them earlier this year. I know everybody thinks we suck and, you know, we can't win any games, so we'll see. It'll be fun.'' - Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on New England's AFC championship game matchup with Kansas City.

---

''We were real calm and poised and we knew we were going to get things done.'' New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees after the Saints stormed back from a 14-0 deficit for a 20-14 victory over Philadelphia

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack:

This is a little strange; Caesar?s Palace posted odds to win the NIT this March:
5-1? Field
6-1? Saint Mary?s
12-1? Utah State
15-1? Arizona
16-1? San Francisco
20-1? Alabama, ASU, Baylor, Creighton, Oregon St, Wofford
25-1? Clemson, East Tennessee State,

Tweet of the Day
?You?ve got to learn too much. You?ve got to have a great relationship with your offensive line, the receivers, know all the defenses that are going to be thrown at you. It?s just not an NFL season with quarterbacks. They need a lot longer than the season. The offseason is huge for those guys to be successful.?
Former NFL DB, major league OF Brian Jordan

Wednesday?s quiz
Hank Stram was the Chiefs? coach for their only Super Bowl win; what other NFL team did he later coach?

Tuesday?s quiz
NBA?s Thunder were the Seattle SuperSonics before moving to Oklahoma City.

Monday?s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, when the Bulls cut Crash Davis, he finished the season with the Asheville Tourists.


***********************

Wednesday?s List of 13: Mid-week musings??..

13) Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray declared for the NFL Draft, which is just a procedural thing to keep his options open; the pivotal moment in his career path will be whether or not he goes to the NFL Combine in February, 11 days after the start of spring training.

Four guys on ESPN?s NFL show Monday said they thought Murray would be a first-round draft pick in the NFL; those four guys are rarely unanimous in agreeing on anything. If he gets taken in the first round, Murray would be a damn fool to play baseball- he?ll make a lot more money as a QB than working his way up thru the minor leagues.

12) Murray has a very interesting decision to make. Joe Mauer earned $218M in his baseball career, just in salary; Matt Holliday earned just under $160M in his. Both guys were HS quarterbacks who turned down college scholarships to become baseball players, but there also guys who tried to juggle both sports and never achieved stardom in either.

11) Then there is Chase Daniel, who has earned $28M in his nine NFL seasons, while starting a total of four games. Playing QB in the NFL is really, really lucrative if you?re great at it. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and the Manning brothers have all earned $200M+ in their careers.

Lamar Jackson got a signing bonus of more than $4.9M as the last pick of the first round last year; Murray?s signing bonus with the A?s is $4.66M, most of which he has to return if he signs with an NFL team (he?s already gotten $1.5M of it, would get to keep $200K or so).

10) CBSSports.com posted a mock draft Tuesday, which means bupkis but it is interesting to look at, and they had the Giants taking Murray with the 6th pick.

Oakland A?s Class A farm teams are in Beloit and Stockton; not a tough choice whether to suit up for the New Jersey Giants or the Beloit Snappers.

9) Not sure why the Jets would want to hire a new coach, but not let the guy hire his own assistants? Apparently Baylor?s Matt Rhule and Mike McCarthy both turned the Jets down because they wanted to decide who their assistants would be, rather than be told.

8) Not much better comedy on TV than listening to ESPN?s Jay Bilas whine about Duke?s star Zion Williamson ?being officiated differently?, because he is bigger/stronger than most guys. Nothing like a TV analyst/alum toting the party line for his alma mater.

7) Sad sign of the times: Prison guards in federal prisons are being mocked by prisoners because the guards are working, but not getting paid. Sounds like a fantastic job.

6) Modern football: James White is a running back for the Patriots, but on Sunday against the Chargers he didn?t run the ball once? he did catch 15 passes for 97 yards.

5) Difference between high majors and mid-majors:
Southern Illinois-Illinois State game Tuesday: one soph, 2 juniors, 7 seniors started.

Syracuse-Duke Monday night: 3 freshmen, 2 sophs, 4 juniors, one senior started.

If you play for a top 20 team now and you?re a senior, its almost like you?re a suspect.

4) TCU is 12-3, having a pretty good season, but they?ve had three players transfer out this season, which led them to giving one of their walk-ons a scholarship, and they got creative in how they told the kid.

Players are in a meeting room, and a sheriff walks in, holding a piece of paper and looking stern. He says he is looking for someone: ?Is Owen Ashieris here?? The kid gets up, walks over to the sheriff, and finds out he?s been given a college scholarship. Kind of cool.

3) Indianapolis Colts jumped from 4-12 to 10-6 this year, and much of credit for that went to their offensive line, which protected Andrew Luck very well.

But on Tuesday, the Colts fired OL coach Dave DeGuglielmo, who was the only offensive coach that Josh McDaniel hired during his brief dalliance Indianapolis last winter. Apparently, Reich wants his own guy, so he must have someone in mind, or why not keep DeGuglielmo?

2) Former Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush will play his last year of college football at Central Florida; he went 12-3 as a starting QB for the Fighting Irish.

1) New York Governor Andrew Cuomo got off his butt this week, wants 2019 to be the year legalized sports betting comes to New York.

?Let?s authorize sports betting in the upstate casinos. It?s here. It?s a reality, and it will generate activity in those casinos.?

Its about time.

 

[Cnotes53]

Championship Notes


L.A. Rams at New Orleans (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Los Angeles Road Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened New Orleans -3 (-120) with a total of 55 ?. They pushed quickly to -3 ? (Even) while early ?over? money nudged the total to 57. BookMaker.eu sent out New Orleans -3 ? with a total of 56 ?. The line has held steady but the total was pushed to 57.

Head-to-Head: The two teams met at the Superdome on Nov. 4 and New Orleans captured a 45-35 win over Los Angeles as a two-point underdog. The Saints led 35-17 at halftime but the Rams tied the game early in the fourth quarter with 18 unanswered points. New Orleans countered with a 10-0 run to win the game. Both the Saints (487) and Rams (483) racked up plenty of yards and they each committed one turnover. The difference in the game was converting on third and fourth down as New Orleans was 9-of-14 (64%) while the Rams only managed to connect on 30 percent (3-of-10) in the Week 9 matchup.

The pair also met in each of the last two regular seasons as well and the home team captured both of those contests as well. The Saints captured a 49-21 blowout win in 2016 while Los Angeles earned a 26-20 win at the Coliseum in 2017.

Including those results, the Rams have dropped their last three trips to the Superdome. The last win for the franchise came in 2007 when Marc Bulger was the quarterback for the St. Louis Rams.

Playoff Notes: Saturday?s 30-22 win over Dallas in the Divisional Round was the first playoff win for Los Angeles since 2005. Head coach Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff both own career 1-1 records in the postseason but both contests occurred at home.

New Orleans improved to 8-5 in the playoffs with QB Drew Brees under center and that includes a perfect 6-0 record at home. Make a note that the Saints are just 2-4 against the spread in those wins and that includes last Sunday?s non-cover (-8) in their 20-14 win over Philadelphia in the Divisional Round.

Total Notes: The Rams have watched the ?over? go 9-8 this season, which includes the high side ticket from last Saturday against Dallas. On the road, Los Angeles has been a great ?under? wager (6-2) and one of the two ?over? tickets came in the aforementioned game at New Orleans.

The 34 combined points in Sunday?s playoff game against Philadelphia was the lowest this season and the game easily went ?under? the total. New Orleans was 10-7 overall to the low side but New Orleans watched the ?over? go 5-4 at the Superdome. Prior to the ?under? result versus Philadelphia last Sunday, the Saints had seen the ?over? cash in 10 straight home playoff games and that included a 5-0 run with Brees.



New England at Kansas City (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)

New England Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-5-1 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a three-point home favorite over New England. Bet Online, a major offshore betting outfit, opened the Chiefs at -3 as well.

The SuperBook sent out a total of 58. Bet Online opened at 57 ?.

Head-to-Head: Since 2000, the Patriots have won seven of 10 meetings with the Chiefs, while the last four meetings have finished 'over' the total. New England is making its first trip to Kansas City since 2014 when the Chiefs blitzed the Patriots on a Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium in a 41-14 beatdown as 2 ?-point underdogs.

The most recent matchup took place this season at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots held off the Chiefs, 43-40 in Week 6. Kansas City managed a slight cover as 3 ?-point underdogs, while both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady each topped the 340-yard mark. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes, but the Patriots overcame blowing a 15-point lead thanks to a last-second field goal by Stephen Gostkowski.

Playoff Notes: The Patriots are playing in their eighth consecutive AFC championship, as New England has posted a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS mark in this stretch. In the last two road AFC title games, the Patriots have lost at Denver in 2013 and 2015. The last away victory in the conference championship came in 2004 at Pittsburgh.

Kansas City has never hosted an AFC championship game before as the Chiefs improved to 2-10 in the last 12 postseason contests since 1994, while picking up their first playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium since 1993.

Amazingly, this is only the second all-time meeting in the playoffs between New England and Kansas City, as the Patriots knocked out the Chiefs in the 2015 divisional playoffs, 27-20.

Total Notes: Since posting an 'over' against the 49ers in Week 3, the Chiefs are 5-2-1 to the 'under' in the last eight games at Arrowhead Stadium. In five of those contests, the Chiefs have held their opponents to 14 points or less. In the last three playoff games in Kansas City, the 'under' has cashed, while four of the past five postseason contests for the Chiefs have gone 'under.'

The Patriots are 5-3 to the 'under' this season away from Gillette Stadium, while closing the season on an 8-1 'under' run. However, that streak came to a halt in New England's blowout of Los Angeles in the divisional round.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (14 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (14 - 3) - 1/20/2019, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 192-239 ATS (-70.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 192-239 ATS (-70.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 138-189 ATS (-69.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-102 ATS (-43.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 4) - 1/20/2019, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-49 ATS (+33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 20

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
New Orleans is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Rams
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

New England Patriots
New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
New England is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 14 games at home
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

 

[Cnotes53]

Over the last five seasons, the home team has won every single AFC/NFC Championship game (10-0) and in those same games home teams are 8-2 against the spread.

 

[Cnotes53]

Who's Hot and Who's Not

Week of Jan 14th

With last week's focus solely on the Divisional Round in the NFL playoffs, we saw some interesting results overall. The 12-for-13 year run of at least one Wildcard team moving onto the Conference Championship was halted with all four home sides winning, while the streak of Wildcard teams not advancing after winning by two or less was pushed to 1-10 SU and 5-5-1 ATS since realignment.

We are left with the four teams that we able to finish 1-2 in their respective conferences, as both Conference Championship games are rematches of epic, high-scoring regular season battles. New England and New Orleans were able to prevail at home in those first meetings, but this time it's only the Saints who get the benefit of being in their own building with the stakes significantly increased.

So it's on to focusing on some history from Conference Championship weekend as the rest of this week will be filled with plenty of thoughts and takes on who will end up being this year's Super Bowl combatants. Can some recent history help us land on the right answers? We will have to wait and see, but this week it's New England Patriots fans that will be fighting against the past.

Who's Hot

Home teams in Conference Championship games are 10-0 SU (8-2 ATS) last five seasons

A run like this shouldn't be too surprising as teams that have earned home field in a Conference title game tend to be the ones that have been among the better teams in the league the entire season. We've got both #1 seeds hosting the games coming up this week, and Chiefs and Saints fans are hoping their respective squads can extend this run for home sides during this weekend.

Overall in this decade (starting with the 2009-10 season), home teams are 14-4 SU during Conference Championship weekend, but just 10-8 ATS. However, while that ATS record might suggest that going against the Chiefs and Saints this weekend may be worth considering ? after all, a 10-8 ATS record is just 55% ATS for home sides, of those eight ATS defeats by home teams in this round, only one of them came when the home team was laying less than four points. That game would be the NFC Championship in January 2012 when the New York Giants knocked off San Francisco in OT thanks to a muffed punt that will go down in infamy for 49ers (and Giants) fans. San Francisco closed as a -2 home favorite that day.

Two of the other ATS defeats for home sides during this weekend came when we actually had a home underdog (Atlanta in January 2013, and Chicago in January 2011), with the remaining five ATS losses coming with the home side priced at -4 or greater, four of which were favored by a TD or more. With both point spreads currently in the -3/3.5 range for this year's games, you've basically got no margin for error in terms of backing the underdog and having them not win the game outright, and that's where the 10-0 SU run and 14-4 SU run this decade for home teams this weekend still has you fighting uphill.

Obviously, streaks/runs like this are made to be broken, and chronologically, it will be the LA Rams up first with a chance to end these streaks. LA does have the revenge angle on their side after losing in New Orleans earlier this year, and the fact that QB Jared Goff and company have already dealt with that hostile environment in a highly helped game should be a plus.

For Patriots backers, it's tough to ignore how dominant they were against the Chargers on Sunday, but sadly, the news doesn't get a whole lot better for them in terms of going out on the road in Kansas City and making their third consecutive Super Bowl this week. That's because....

Who's Not

NFL teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs are on a 2-7 SU run (3-6 ATS) the following playoff week

New England was the only one of the four high-powered offenses this past weekend to put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard and that may have not been the best omen for them. I've listed the most recent numbers for teams in that scenario in the header, but overall this decade (again, since the 2009-10 season) these teams are 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS.

The good news for New England is the fact that the last two times it's happened for teams advancing from the Divisional round ? Jacksonville last year and New England in January 2015 ? they've gone 2-0 ATS, but only the Patriots were able to advance to the Super Bowl, and they did it with a home victory the following week, not a road date. Furthermore, teams that did score 40+ during the Divisional round since January 2010 are 4-3 SU the following week, but that's where the good news begins and ends for the Patriots this week.

None of those four SU victories in the Conference finals for teams off scoring 40+ have come by squads that were lined as road underdogs of any number, as road teams account for just two of those four wins off a 40+ point performance, and both were laying chalk as visitors (Green Bay in January 2011 and San Francisco in January 2013).

Finally, two of those three SU losses during the Conference finals have come from this New England Patriots franchise specifically (January 2013 and January 2014), and while New England will be making their eighth straight appearance in the AFC Championship, they are 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) when entering the game after scoring 40+ the week prior. Add in the Patriots 0-2 SU and ATS record in road AFC Championships during this eight-year run, and Bill Belichick and company will be rewriting the history books in a big way should they win this weekend and move on to yet another Super Bowl appearance.

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



CHIEFS D STEPS UP

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Divisional Round was the play of Kansas City?s defense. It was a unit that struggled throughout the regular season with a rank of 26th in overall DVOA while giving up the second-most total yards per game in the league (405.5). Then they went out and shut down the hottest quarterback in the league, holding Andrew Luck without a pass completion in the first quarter and without an offensive touchdown until the game was well out of reach with 5:31 remaining in the fourth. Luck wound up throwing for just 203 yards on 19-of-36 passing while Marlon Mack was stuffed to the tune of 46 yards on nine carries, which was actually an inflated total as one of his carries went for 20 yards.

Shutting down the Colts was impressive but this week is a totally different challenge with Tom Brady and co. coming to town. The Patriots looked unstoppable on Sunday against what was a very good Chargers defense, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three possessions en route to the 41-point performance.

New England torched the Chiefs for 43 points back in Week 6, though it should be noted that K.C. was a much better unit at home during the regular season, allowing 17.4 points per game as compared to 34.6 on the road. Still, it?s Brady and Belichick in the playoffs and we?re expecting them to craft a game plan in which they score early and often against the Chiefs on Sunday. Our early-week lean is towards the Over 26.5 for New England?s team total.


GINN GETS LOVE

One of the more surprising storylines from Sunday?s Saints-Eagles win was New Orleans receiver Ted Ginn. He caught just three passes for 44 yards but the line that really jumps out is that Drew Brees targeted him seven times, which was second on the team to Michael Thomas? 16 looks. Ginn actually could have had a monster game if Brees had not underthrown him on the game?s opening play that should have been a long touchdown but instead was an interception. Regardless, it was obvious that Brees wanted to get him the ball and that should again be the case on Sunday as the Saints host the Rams.

The Rams have an above-average pass defense, with a rank of ninth in passing DVOA during the regular season, but were burned by Dallas?s WR2, Michael Gallup, on Saturday to the tune of 6-119 on nine targets. Michael Thomas went bananas with a 12-171-1 line against the Eagles and he?ll surely be the focus of the Rams? defensive game plan for the NFC Championship Game. We?re thinking Ginn could fly under the radar and we?ll be looking to play the Over for his receiving yards total.


RAMS RUN WILD

What a performance it was from the Rams? running game on Saturday, racking up 273 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 48 carries. Dallas was a tough matchup on paper, with the fifth-ranked defense in rushing DVOA during the regular season, but the Cowboys had been vulnerable to the run on the road late in the season and that held true on Saturday (and got us a winner in backing the Over for Gurley?s rushing total).

Sunday will be an even tougher matchup, in theory, as the Saints ranked third in rushing DVOA during the regular season and then held the Eagles to 49 rushing yards on 16 carries last weekend.

It will also be tough to predict who will be doing the bulk of the work in the Rams? backfield this weekend. C.J. Anderson actually led L.A. in carries last weekend and posted a line of 23-123-2, while Todd Gurley went for 16-115-1 in what was his first game since Dec. 16. Gurley?s long layoff was likely the reason why Anderson out-touched him, but all Anderson has done is run for rushing totals of 167, 132, and 123 while scoring four times in his three games with the Rams. He has to be involved against the Saints.

Our early-week lean is to stay off the rushing totals for both running backs as it?s tough to say how Sean McVay will use them, but we do like the idea of both of them getting goal-line touches at some point during the game and at +125, we?re backing Anderson to score a touchdown at any time.


MICHEL?S THE MAN

Sony Michel made his playoffs debut a memorable one on Sunday, rushing 24 times for 129 yards and hitting the end zone three times. He was the feature back in the running game, getting 24 of the 34 handoffs from Tom Brady (while James White took the passing downs and turned them into 15 receptions for 97 yards). It was a tough matchup on paper against the Chargers as they ranked 10th in rushing DVOA during the regular season and had only given up 90 rushing yards to Baltimore?s vaunted rushing attack the week prior.

This week looks to be an easier matchup for Michel. The Chiefs ranked dead last in rushing DVOA during the regular season and gave up 132.1 rushing yards per game (sixth-most in the NFL), five yards per carry (second-most in the NFL), and 19 rushing touchdowns (third-most in the NFL). The weather shouldn?t be a factor either as the surface at Arrowhead Field is heated, meaning the players shouldn?t have an issue with their footing. Michel is going to be a huge part of New England?s offensive plan and we?re backing him to hit the end zone once again this week by going Over 0.5 for his rushing touchdowns total at -120.


WATKINS UNSCATHED

Chiefs coach Andy Reid told the media on Tuesday that Sammy Watkins got through the Wild Card game without setbacks to his foot. He was playing in his first game since Week 11 last weekend and hauled in 6-of-8 targets for 62 yards. Watkins was on the field for 76-of-82 offensive snaps and will be at full speed against New England on Sunday night.

Watkins has a below-average matchup on Sunday against a Pats squad that ranked 14th in passing DVOA during the regular season and 12th in DVOA against WR2s, allowing seven passes for 53 yards per game. New England shut down Watkins back in Week 6, holding him to two catches for 18 yards in what was one of his worst offensive lines of the season. The Pats did get burned by the Chargers? secondary receivers, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams, for 10 total catches and 162 yards last week, though a lot of that can be attributed to game script as Philip Rivers threw 51 times because the Chargers fell behind big early. We expect the Pats to hold Watkins relatively in check and we?re backing the Under 4.5 for his receptions total.


CAN THOMAS BE STOPPED?

At times, Michael Thomas looks like the best receiver in the NFL. That was certainly the case last week as he hauled in a ridiculous 12 catches on 16 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. It was also the case when the Rams and Saints met at the Superdome in Week 9 as he had 12 catches on 15 targets for 211 yards and a touchdown. Rams cornerback Marcus Peters was routinely burned by Thomas back in Week 9, but he?ll have some help on Sunday as Aqib Talib will be available after missing the Week 9 matchup.

Peters and Talib took turns covering Dallas? top receiver Amari Cooper last weekend and held him relatively in check as Cooper turned in a line of 6-65-1. But Thomas is a lot better than Cooper, Drew Brees is a lot better than Dak Prescott, and New Orleans offensive scheme is a lot better than Dallas?. The Rams struggled with the opponent?s top receiver throughout the regular season, finishing with a DVOA rank of 28th to the position while allowing 7.4 passes for 82.7 yards per game (and those stats include eight Talib starts). Even with reinforcements, we don?t see how the Rams slow down Thomas in what should be an epic shootout at the Superdome. We?re taking the Over 92.5 on his receiving yards total.


SHOOTOUT IN THE BIG EASY?

With the Rams set to visit the Saints on Sunday with a game total of 56.5, it?s difficult to envision that we?re going to see anything except an epic shootout. Let?s dig into the numbers a bit.

The Saints averaged 32.6 points per game at home, third-best in the NFL.
The Rams averaged 28.8 points per game on the road, also third-best in the NFL.
Since 2003, games with totals of 56 or higher in the playoffs have hit the Over five out of seven times.
The Over is 5-1 in New Orleans? home games during the playoffs since 2007, with the only Under coming in last week?s game against Philadelphia.

The Rams will want to run the ball with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson but will likely struggle against New Orleans third-ranked unit in rushing DVOA. The Saints? offense will also be a lot sharper as compared to last week where they were shutout in the first quarter as they were clearly rusty, having not played meaningful snaps as a unit since Week 16. The total opened at 57 and has since ticked down to 56.5, but we?re expecting points early and often, much like Week 9?s 80-point affair between these two teams. We?re backing the Over 56.5.

 

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



BRADY IN THE COLD

While the weather could affect different players in different ways, one thing we know for certain is that it won?t New England?s quarterback. Tom Brady seems to love the cold with a ridiculous 24-4 record in games played in sub-30-degree weather and when the cold gets below 20 degrees, his record is 5-1. Brady has led the Pats to wins in the cold but let?s take a look at how he fared in those games:

Jan. 10, 2004 (4 degrees) - 21 of 41, 201 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Jan. 23, 2005 (11 degrees) - 14 of 21, 207 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Jan. 10, 2010 (20 degrees) - 23 of 42, 154 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT
Jan. 10, 2015 (20 degrees) - 33 of 50, 367 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dec. 18, 2016 (18 degrees) - 16 of 32, 188 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
Dec. 31, 2017 (13 degrees) - 18 of 37, 190 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Brady?s passing yards total for Sunday is set at 288.5. And what?s the one number that jumps out from the above list? Brady has only thrown for more than 207 yards in sub-20 degree weather once. There?s also the fact that he?s just not throwing the ball downfield without Josh Gordon. The Under for his passing yards total is looking like a smart bet.


WHITE HOT IN PLAYOFFS

Playoffs James White was in full effect last weekend, posting an insane 15 receptions for 97 yards against the Chargers. We suggested he would have a big game and he got us a winner, going Over 45.5 receiving yards with nine minutes remaining in the second quarter.

We know that Kansas City struggles against the run ? we dug into that yesterday. Against pass-catching backs, the Chiefs are slightly better with a DVOA rank of 21, giving up 6.9 passes and 56.4 receiving yards per game to an opponent?s backfield during the regular season. The weather should also play in White?s factor, as Brady will be looking for more short completions in the cold and possible crosswinds at Arrowhead. White?s totals have ticked up since last week, but we see Brady going to him early and often once again on Sunday. Take the Over 47.5 for his receiving yards total and/or the Over 5.5 for his receptions total.


BANKING ON KAMARA

The Rams defense did well at home last week to shut down Ezekiel Elliott, holding the Cowboys? star back to 47 rushing yards on 20 carries and 19 receiving yards on two receptions. L.A. will again be challenged by New Orleans? backfield this week as they get the unenviable task of trying to shut down Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara on the turf at the Superdome.

Kamara was his usual dual-threat out of the backfield last week against Philadelphia, rushing 16 times for 71 yards and adding four receptions for 35 yards. That marked the third straight game and that he has put up 100-plus yards from scrimmage. Kamara averaged 106.1 yards from scrimmage per game in the regular season, the eighth-most in the NFL. The Rams are tough to read against dual-threat backs, ranking 28th in rushing DVOA but fourth in isolated passing DVOA to running backs. Back in Week 9, Kamara put up 82 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards against the Rams and we?re expecting him to crack the 100-yard mark from scrimmage once against on Sunday. Take the Over 100.5 for his combined rushing and receiving yards total.


STAYING OFF GOFF (AGAIN)

Here?s what we wrote last week when talking about Rams quarterback Jared Goff?s late-season struggles:

Rams quarterback Jared Goff seemed to hit a bit of a wall towards the end of 2018. In five December starts, Goff averaged just 228.2 passing yards, cracking the 220-yard mark just once when he threw for 339 yards when the Rams were chasing the Eagles all night in Week 15. Over that same stretch, he completed just 58.6 percent of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt.

Goff was serviceable in the Divisional Round, going 15 of 28 for 186 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, getting us a winner with the Under 282.5 on his passing yards total. But serviceable isn?t what we expect from Goff and the high-flying Rams offense. It?s also not what oddsmakers are expecting this week as his passing yards total is set at 284.5.

In addition to Goff?s late-season struggles are his road struggles. Goff averaged just 243.8 passing yards per game away from the L.A. Coliseum during the regular season (as opposed to 342.5 at home). He did throw 391 yards in the shootout at the Superdome back in Week 9, but as mentioned above, this is not the same Goff as we saw earlier in the season. The Saints were excellent against the pass last week, limiting Nick Foles to just 201 yards on 18-of-31 passing and we?re expecting another sub-par day from Goff on Sunday afternoon. Grab the Under 284.5 on his passing yards total.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack

? Phil Mickelson shot a 60, leads the Desert Classic by three strokes.

? Seahawks signed QB Paxton Lynch to back up Russell Wilson.

? Bronx signed reliever Adam Ottavino to a 3-year, $27M deal.

? Diamondbacks signed utility guy Wilmer Flores to a 1-year deal.

? Texas QB Shane Buechele is transferring from the Longhorns? program.

? TCU G Jaylen Fisher is leaving the Horned Frogs? program, their 4th transfer this season.

Tweet of the Day
?Wes is a young offensive coach who knows Sean McVay, if anyone is looking for a head coach. He knows him really well.?
Wade Phillips, talking about his son Wes

Friday?s quiz
When was first time an AFL team beat an NFL team in the Super Bowl?

Thursday?s quiz
Drew Brees CAUGHT one TD pass in his career; Hall of Fame RB LaDanian Tomlinson threw the pass, when the two were teammates in San Diego.

Wednesday?s quiz
Hank Stram was the Chiefs? coach for their only Super Bowl win; he later coached the New Orleans Saints.



************************

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here??.

13) Not that I?m paranoid or anything, but since 2012, Rams are 0-8 (0-2 this year) when Bill Vinovich?s crew referees their games (Saints are 5-3).

Vinovich is a good official (he?s also done the Final Four in college hoop) but would it kill the NFL to send him to the AFC game?

12) Those who don?t study history are doomed to repeat it: FOX signed Urban Meyer to be a college football analyst next season.

Meyer was an analyst on ESPN for a year before he went to Ohio State, and he was incapable of humor or laughter- I actually felt bad for the guy. We?ll see next fall if he?s lightened up at all.

11) Thursday night?s college hoop upsets:
? FIU (+12.5) 77, Western Kentucky 76
? Manhattan (+6) 58, St Peter?s 56
? Oregon (+4.5) 59, Arizona 54

10) Bill Belichick?s first NFL coaching job (assistant special teams coach) was with the Detroit Lions, in 1976; Also on that staff? Jerry Glanville, who went on to coach the Oilers/Falcons, one of the all-time great characters. Hard to imagine both of those guys in the same meeting.

Belichick was a special assistant with the ?75 Colts, but technically not a member of the staff.

9) For some reason, I became curious about this yesterday, so I looked it up. Last year, the average WNBA salary was $71,635, and this year will be closer to $75,000. The maximum veteran salary is $113,500.

8) Reason why VCU is a better college basketball job than most mid-majors: Rams have had 126 consecutive sellouts at home. Basketball is sports priority #1 at VCU, by far.

7) Sounds like Cam Newton has a chance to miss all of 2019 with shoulder issues, much like Andrew Luck missed all of 2017. If so, where do the Panthers turn for a new QB?

6) Former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts is taking his 26-2 record as a starting QB to Oklahoma, which should prove to be very interesting.

5) Speaking of Alabama?s football team, five of their assistant coaches from this past season have already found new jobs; was reading an article during bowl season- pro scouts were saying that this was Saban?s worst coaching staff in his many years with the Crimson Tide, so you wonder if guys jumped ship or got pushed overboard?

4) Jets? DC Gregg Williams is now working for his ninth NFL team; he could write one hell of a book someday.

3) Once Oklahoma signed up Alabama transfer QB Jalen Hurts, they released backup QB Austin Kendall, who quickly bolted to West Virginia, where he will play against the Sooners next year.

2) Michigan Wolverines offered a college scholarship to a 7th grade QB in Michigan, which is highly unusual and even a little weird. What are the odds that Jim Harbaugh is still coaching there when the kid graduates from high school, five years from now?

1) Cincinnati basketball coach Mick Cronin got tossed from a game Tuesday when his team was winning; not sure I?ve ever seen that before. AAC had a rough week with its refs; Tulsa/UConn game the next night saw both head coaches get tossed at the same time, even stranger.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Underdogs: Championship Sunday pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Most TV sitcoms hit their stride after one or two seasons ? if they?re lucky to last that long ? making Seasons 3, 4, and 5 the peak in terms of quality and popularity. The characters are more defined, the actors and directors are comfortable, and the stories are more engaging in those latter seasons.

A run of quality seasons can extend a sitcom?s shelf life, even when it takes a noticeable down tick. Despite the drop off in quality, a beloved program can run for another three, four or five years before audiences eventually pack it in (See: Scrubs or Community).

If the NFL season where a TV network, the New Orleans Saints would have been the highest-rated show between Week 7 and Week 12. New Orleans went into its Week 6 bye with a 4-1 record (3-2 ATS) and came out of that break on point. The Saints rolled up six straight wins and covered the spread in each of those games, including a 45-35 victory versus the L.A. Rams as 1.5-point home underdogs in Week 9.

But much like all great shows, they must come to an end. And in the case of the Saints, the quality of programming has been dwindling since a Week 13 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. In their last six games, going back to that fateful day in Dallas, the Saints are 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS, and without a convincing victory.

New Orleans hasn?t even come close to the quality of play seen between Week 7 and Week 12. They were handled by the Cowboys, had to battle back against the Buccaneers, nearly lost to the Panthers on Monday Night Football, were a JuJu Smith-Schuster fumble away from a loss to Pittsburgh, watched their first-team defense get backhanded by Kyle Allen (?) and Carolina in Week 17, and most recently had to claw their way back from two touchdowns behind to edge the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round.

For aging TV sitcoms, a change in cast, loss of director, or just bad writing can begin the ship sinking. For the Saints, it?s been slow starts. Over that six-game span, New Orleans has been outscored 54-10 in the first quarter, 85-36 in the first half, and owns an average margin of almost -8 at the break.

Los Angeles enters as one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and among its quickest starters. The Rams have done severe damage in the opening 30 minutes ? especially second quarters ? and own an average margin of almost plus-10 at half in its last half-dozen outings. Their ability to run the ball and create opportunities for intermediate play-action passes will really pick on one of the biggest weakness for the Saints.

And for everything L.A. can do offensively, this defense follows the blueprint laid down by New Orleans? most recent opponents, more specifically interior pressure on quarterback Drew Brees. Ndamukong Suh was signed specifically for this time of year and stepped up with his best game against Dallas, and Aaron Donald is the top defensive player in the league ? no argument ? who (despite not recording a sack) had four hits on Brees in that Week 9 game.

It appears the Saints? cancellation notice is coming down the pipe. Whether that happens in the NFC Championship, the Super Bowl, or next season remains to be seen. But I know how Sunday?s show will end, with L.A. covering the +3.5.

Pick: L.A. Rams +3.5

Last week: 1-1 ATS
Season: 34-20-1 ATS