Cnotes53 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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NFL roundup: Packers snap three-game skid
November 12, 2017

CHICAGO -- Brett Hundley passed for 212 yards and one touchdown, Nick Perry registered three sacks, and the Green Bay Packers held on for a 23-16 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday.

Green Bay snapped a three-game losing streak and won for the first time since quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. The Packers have won 14 of their past 16 games against Chicago.

Rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 21 of 35 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown for the Bears. Chicago lost its second consecutive game and fell to 2-3 at home.

Patriots 41, Broncos 16

DENVER -- Tom Brady threw for three touchdowns and Dion Lewis spearheaded a dazzling special teams performance with a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown as New England routed Denver.

Brady's first touchdown pass was caught by Rex Burkhead, who also blocked a punt to set up one of Stephen Gostkowski's two field goals. Lewis also ran for a touchdown in helping the Patriots win on the road for the 12th straight time.

The streak ties a club record and is second only in NFL history to the San Francisco 49ers' record 18-game road winning streak from 1988 to 1990. The Broncos lost their fifth straight since a 3-1 start and struggled offensively to complete drives, settling for Brandon McManus field goals three times in the first half.

Steelers 20, Colts 17

INDIANAPOLIS -- Chris Boswell's 33-yard field goal as time expired rallied Pittsburgh past Indianapolis.

Ben Roethlisberger's 32-yard pass to Antonio Brown to the Colts' 18-yard line with 35 seconds left set up Boswell's winning kick after he had missed a 37-yarder with 6:17 remaining that hit the right upright.

Pittsburgh rallied from a 17-3 third-quarter deficit, finishing the game on a 17-0 run.

Jaguars 20, Chargers 17

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Josh Lambo connected on a 30-yard field goal in overtime as Jacksonville stunned Los Angeles.

Lambo also kicked a 34-yard field goal with three seconds left in the fourth quarter to tie the game. He kicked for the Chargers the past two seasons before being cut at the end of the preseason.

The Chargers shut down Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette. The fourth overall pick in the draft was held to 33 yards on 17 carries.

Falcons 27, Cowboys 7

ATLANTA -- With Dallas forced to play with suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott sitting out his first of at least four games, Atlanta defensive end Adrian Clayborn made the Cowboys pay.

Clayborn sacked Dak Prescott six times, setting an Atlanta record, and the Falcons snapped the Cowboys' three-game winning streak. Clayborn fell one shy of the NFL single-game record held by former Kansas City Chiefs star Derrick Thomas (1990).

Matt Ryan, who was 22 of 29 for 215 yards, threw two short touchdown passes and the Falcons won for just the second time in their past six games.

Lions 38, Browns 24

DETROIT -- Matthew Stafford threw three second-half touchdown passes and Detroit rallied for a victory over winless Cleveland.

Stafford completed 17 of 26 passes for 249 yards. Ameer Abdullah had 52 rushing yards on 11 carries and a touchdown for the Lions. Golden Tate caught six passes for 97 yards and a score, while cornerback Nevin Lawson returned a fumble 44 yards for a touchdown.

Cleveland rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer passed for 232 yards and a touchdown and also carried seven times for 57 yards.

Buccaneers 15, Jets 10

TAMPA, Fla. -- Three field goals from Patrick Murray and a touchdown reception from running back Charles Sims helped Tampa Bay defeat New York.

The Buccaneers, who never trailed despite playing without injured quarterback Jameis Winston, broke a five-game losing streak.

The Jets, who reached Tampa Bay territory on only three of their 12 drives, were limited to 276 yards. Tampa Bay, which came into the game with an NFL-low eight sacks, had six on Sunday against the Jets.

Saints 47, Bills 10

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Mark Ingram II rushed for 131 yards and three touchdowns to power New Orleans over Buffalo.

Rookie Alvin Kamara ran for 106 yards and a touchdown, rookie Trey Edmunds had a 41-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter and quarterback Drew Brees even ran in for a score as the Saints racked up 298 rushing yards in winning their seventh straight game. The Saints set a team record with six rushing touchdowns and had their third-highest rushing total in franchise history.

It was also the first time the Bills allowed six rushing touchdowns. It was the team's worst home loss since a 56-10 defeat against the New England Patriots on Nov. 18, 2007, and the worst defensive performance under new head coach Sean McDermott.

Vikings 38, Redskins 30

LANDOVER, Md. -- Case Keenum threw a career-high four touchdown passes, Adam Thielen had 166 receiving yards and Minnesota defeated Washington for their fifth straight win.

Keenum finished 21 of 29 for 304 yards. He threw two second-half interceptions. Thielen had eight catches, one for a touchdown as Keenum touchdown passes went to four different players.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins passed for one touchdown and ran for two more. He was 26 of 45 for 327 yards and one interception for the Redskins.

Titans 24, Bengals 20

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- DeMarco Murray stretched the ball just across the goal line on a 7-yard touchdown pass from Marcus Mariota with 36 seconds left as Tennessee rallied to edge Cincinnati.

Murray's third score of the day capped a 12-play drive. Mariota finished 25 of 44 for 264 yards with an interception as the Titans won their fourth straight game.

Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton finished 20 of 35 for 265 yards, but lost a pair of fumbles in the second quarter, one leading to Murray's second touchdown.

49ers 31, Giants 21

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard passed for 288 yards and two touchdowns, leading San Francisco to a victory over New York, its first win under first-year head coach Kyle Shanahan after a 0-9 start.

Beathard completed 19 of 25 passes with touchdowns of 83 yards to wide receiver Marquise Goodwin and 47 yards to tight end Garrett Celek in the second quarter. Beathard, who was intercepted once, ran for an 11-yard score in the fourth quarter.

Quarterback Eli Manning completed 28 of 37 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns for the Giants. He started his 208th consecutive game, tying his brother, Peyton, for the second longest streak in NFL history by a quarterback, behind only Brett Favre's streak of 297.

Rams 33, Texans 7

LOS ANGELES -- Quarterback Jared Goff threw three touchdown passes and Los Angeles rolled to its fourth consecutive win with a victory over Houston.

The win allowed the Rams to maintain a one-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. The Texans (3-6) dropped their third straight.

A 94-yard touchdown pass from Goff to Robert Woods with 9:23 left in the third quarter turned a two-point Rams lead into a 16-7 cushion and seemed to pump life into an offense that struggled in the first half.
 
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Monday Night Football Best Bets:

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/12/2017 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
11/09/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals.........18 - 24 - 2......42.85%.......-42.00

Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/12/2017................1 - 2..................-4.50...............1 - 8............-39.00...............-43.50
11/09/2017..............0 - 0 - 1...............+0.00..............1 - 0............+5.00................+5.00
11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

Totals........................3 - 4..................-5.50................4 - 10...........-35.00..............-40.50

*******************

11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner
 
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Monday?s six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 10 in the Westgate Super Contest:
6) Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (657)- W
5) New Jersey Jets -2.5 (666)- L
4) Los Angeles Rams -12 (697)- W
3) Washington Redskins +1 (703)- L
2) Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (719)- L
1) Buffalo Bills +3 (1,182)- L
Season record of top 6 picks: 23-37

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Monday?s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Vikings 38, Redskins 30? Minnesota won its last five games, covered its last four; Case Keenum was 21-29/304 passing with four TD?s. Keenum played for the Rams LY; LA was 4-5 in his starts before Jared Goff became the starter? Goff and the Rams visit the Twin Cities next Sunday.

Jaguars 20, Chargers 17 OT? If you had the Chargers +3.5, take a big sigh of relief; LA had ball in last 2:00, up 17-14- they fumbled and Jaguars ran ball back for an apparent TD, but replay said the defender was down when he picked the ball up, so the TD was nullified, Jax kicked a FG and the game went to overtime.

Chargers have four losses by 3 or less points; they had 15 drives in this game, ran 67 plays, but never got into the red zone- they were only 3-15 on 3rd down.

Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16? When Russell Wilson gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, they?ll show the 54-yard pass he completed to Doug Baldwin in the 4th quarter of this game, after a scramble that looked a lot like Fran Tarkenton in his early Viking days.

Arizona QB Stanton sprained his knee, may miss next week?s game, which could mean a QB showdown between Blaine Gabbert/TJ Yates. Seahawks were penalized 12 more times for 108 yards, but did enough to stay a game behind the Rams in the NFC West.

Saints 47, Bills 10? New Orleans ran ball for 298 yards, had 32 first downs, also had an 18-yard edge in field position as they won their 7th straight game. Saints allowed 17 or less points in six of last seven games, and in the 7th game, their defense SCORED three TD?s, vs Detroit.

Saints became the first team since 1941 to run for six touchdowns and not punt in that game.

Packers 23, Bears 16? Worst replay challenge ever? In 2nd quarter, Bears would?ve had a first down around the Green Bay 2-yard line, but they challenged that the ball carrier had scored a TD, when in fact, he fumbled and the correct call was a touchback. Whoops.

Hundley wins his first NFL road start but also tweaked his hamstring- they play Baltimore next.

Titans 24, Bengals 20? Tennessee outgained Bengals 416-308, as once again Cincy ran only 50 plays- they?ve run 87 plays total the last two games.

Score should?ve been more one-sided; Titan WR Matthews dropped a sure TD in 2nd quarter, followed by Succop having his streak of 56 consecutive FG?s under 50 yards end with a miss. Later on, rookie WR Davis fumbled on the 1-yard line for a touchback when the Titans were threatening to pull away for good. Bengals aren?t a good team.

Buccaneers 15, Jets 10? Tampa Bay had a 17-yard edge in field position, as Fitzpatrick beat the team he started for the last two years. Jets still haven?t trailed at halftime since Week 2, but they are 4-6 heading into their bye week. Jets were held to 3 or 7 2nd half points in four of their last five games.

Steelers 20, Colts 17? Indy scored two TD?s, on 60-61 yard pass plays; they led 10-3 at half but let this slip away at end. Steelers tied game with a 10-yard T drive after an INT, then won game with a FG at the gun. Pittsburgh won its last four games, three by 6 or less points. Four of last six TD?s Steelers allowed came on plays of 57+ yards.

Lions 38, Browns 24? Cleveland led 10-0 early, then 24-17 with 2:23 left in 3rd quarter, but if you took the Browns +13:
a) Don?t bet on the Browns and??.
b) they didn?t cover the spread, despite outgaining Lions 413-345.

Right now, Cleveland has the #1 pick and the Giants #2 pick? will they both take QB?s? Will Giants trade Eli Manning to Denver or Jacksonville?

Rams 33, Texans 7? Houston turned ball over four times (-4), once in red zone when Texans led 7-6 just before halftime. From that point on, it was all Rams, who gained 205 yards in the third quarter and dominated the second half.

Houston won?t make the playoffs this year, but if Deshaun Watson rehabs well, they?re going to be very optimistic about 2018. As for the rest of this year, wouldn?t be surprised if TJ Yates gets the nod under center for their next gam, against Arizona.

Falcons 27, Cowboys 7? Atlanta sacked Dak Prescott eight times; turns out Ezekiel Elliott?s absence wasn?t the big deal Sunday, it was LT Tyron Smith. Cowboys? only TD drive was 21 yards. Both teams are now 5-4 and Elliott is out for another five games- could be that neither one of these teams makes the playoffs.

49ers 31, Giants 21? Three of SF?s four TD?s came on plays of 33+ yards; only 2 of their 13 TD?s coming into this game were on plays of 20+ yards. 49ers were 8-12 on third down- they gained 474 yards, averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt.

At this point, you wonder if Giant ownership has begun the search for a new coach/GM, and if so, how far along are they in the process. Losing this game puts the Giants ahead of SF on the draft list for next April; they?d have the #2 pick behind Cleveland right now.

Patriots 41, Broncos 16? Has a special teams coach ever been fired at halftime of a game? In the first 19:40 Sunday night, Denver lost a fumbled punt, had a punt blocked and allowed a TD on a kick return. In the second half, they had 12 men on the field for a punt, giving New England a first down. No bueno.

Sunday was Al Michaels? 73rd birthday; I hope I?m as sharp as he is when I?m 73.
 
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MNF - Dolphins at Panthers
November 12, 2017

LAST WEEK

The Dolphins (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) play their third consecutive game in primetime, but are 0-2 so far in their first two night contests with losses to the Ravens and Raiders. Following a 40-0 blowout at the hands of Baltimore, Miami hung with Oakland before falling short in a 27-24 setback. The Dolphins managed a push as three-point underdogs, while quarterback Jay Cutler put together his finest game of the season by completing 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami picked up the push after trailing 27-16 in the fourth quarter as Cutler connected with tight end Julius Thomas on a 15-yard touchdown pass, followed up by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to three. The Dolphins dropped to 6-2 in games decided by three points or less since the start of the 2016 season, while losing for the first time in this situation at Hard Rock Stadium.

Carolina (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) picked up its second straight divisional victory by rallying from a 10-0 deficit to knock off Atlanta, 20-17. The Panthers depended on their ground game to chew up the Falcons? defense by racking up 201 yards rushing, including touchdowns by Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. Newton threw for only 137 yards, but rushed for 86 to help improve Carolina to 2-1 inside the NFC South following a dreadful 1-5 record within the division last season.

The Panthers own the league?s best defense from a yardage-per-game standpoint by limiting the opposition to an average of 274.1 yards a contest. However, Carolina yielded 355 yards in last week?s win over Atlanta, while getting outgained in three of the past four games. Five times this season, the Panthers have allowed 17 points or less, while going 2-2 in four games in which they allowed 24 points or more.

TOPSY-TURVY TOTALS

From a totals perspective, these teams have gone in opposite directions of late. Miami is riding a 3-0 streak to the OVER in the last three contests following five consecutive UNDERS to begin the season. Carolina put together four straight OVERS from Week 3 through Week 6, but the Panthers have cashed the UNDER in the last three contests. Last season, Carolina compiled a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER at Bank of America Stadium, but are 2-2 to the UNDER in four home games in 2017.

TERRIBLE TWOS

Since Adam Gase took over as head coach prior to the 2016 season, the Dolphins have lost consecutive games four times. In the first three instances, Miami bounced back with a victory, beating Cleveland in Week 3 and Pittsburgh in Week 6 last season, while knocking off Tennessee in Week 5 this season. We?ll see if Miami can avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2015.

SERIES HISTORY

The Dolphins and Panthers have met up only five times since Carolina entered the league in 1995. Miami captured the first four matchups, including a 24-17 triumph as 3 ?-point underdogs in Charlotte back in 2009. Carolina won the most recent meeting in 2013 at Hard Rock Stadium, 20-16 as Newton hooked up with tight end Greg Olson on a one-yard touchdown pass in the final minute for the go-ahead score. Miami managed a cover as 4 ?-point underdogs, improving to 5-0 ATS lifetime against Carolina.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Panthers have won four of six Monday night games since 2012, while splitting a pair of games last season. Carolina is 1-2 ATS at home in this span with the only cover coming in an exciting finish over New England, 24-20 in 2013 as three-point favorites. The Dolphins have yet to play a Monday night game this season, while last losing when taking the field on a Monday in a 2015 home loss to the Giants. Since 2010, the Dolphins own a dreadful 0-7 ATS mark in Monday night action, including an 0-4 ATS mark as an underdog.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER

***************Joe Nelson provides his views on this matchup, starting with Carolina, ?The Panthers are 21st in the league in total offense and 24th in scoring offense. On a per carry basis, the Panthers are the sixth-worst rushing team in the NFL gaining just 3.7 yards per carry as rookie Christian McCaffrey hasn?t been the high impact rookie many expected to see. Newton also hasn?t come close to his 2015 MVP numbers, 20th in the league in Total QBR and 27th in QB Rating.?

Shifting over to the Dolphins, the offense has been the main reason for the team?s struggles as Nelson outlines Miami?s offensive issues, ?The Dolphins have averaged just 14.5 points per game for the worst scoring average in the NFL, even behind winless San Francisco and Cleveland. However, the Dolphins have scored 20, 31, and 24 in three of the last four weeks.?

This is a crucial game for both squads as the Dolphins still have a difficult schedule ahead, although Carolina?s slate isn?t as difficult, ?The Dolphins still have to play the Patriots and Bills twice each in the final seven weeks while also drawing a road game at Kansas City as losing this week would greatly cripple their chances to finish above .500. For Carolina, the schedule out of the bye week is manageable, but they still have two difficult division road games remaining plus a home date with the Vikings as the chance to reach 10 wins might hinge on this game,? Nelson notes.

From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out a trend that goes against Miami following a successful game through the air, ?The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS since Nov 09, 2014 after they threw for at least 300 yards last game.? The only time this situation occurred in 2017 came in the 40-0 blowout loss at Baltimore two weeks ago, while scoring a combined seven points in two road opportunities in this trend under Gase.

BOOKMAKER?S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says there isn?t a strong opinion either way from bettors, ?The spread has held steady since opening as there isn?t much sharp interest as of yet. Surprisingly, the public is pretty split up to this point. The pro action we have received on this game has come on the UNDER, which we?ve dropped a full point since opening.?
 
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Monday, November 13

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MIAMI (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 13

MIAMI @ CAROLINA
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Miami
Carolina is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home


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Monday, November 13

Miami @ Carolina

Game 275-276
November 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.515
Carolina
130.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 10
40
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+10); Under

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Monday's game
Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3)? Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD?s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula?s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.

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NFL

Sunday, November 12

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING PREVIEW AND ODDS: PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5, 44.5)

The Denver Broncos are in a freefall and the prospect of stopping the tailspin doesn't look promising with the defending Super Bowl champions coming to town. The Broncos have dropped four in a row and will try to bounce back from an ugly beat-down when they host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a prime-time matchup on Sunday night.

Denver was blasted by Philadelphia 51-23 last week in its third straight road game, but the team has enjoyed success at home against the Patriots and Brady. "It is the perfect opponent," Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler said of New England. "I think any time you find yourself in a losing streak like this and not playing good football, you want to play a great opponent because if you can go out there and play a good football game and find a way to get a win, it's going to create a ton of momentum for your football team." The Patriots have ripped off four straight victories to move into a tie with Pittsburgh for the AFC's best record and are coming off a bye, but Brady has won only three of 10 career matchups against Denver in the Mile High City. "There's little margin for error when you go out there," Brady said. "They have a great defense. They have great players on both sides of the ball. You can't go out there and make a bunch of mistakes and expect to win." **video

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6) - Broncos (4) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-road chalk against the Broncos and that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 46 and was bet up as high as 47 before money came in on the under dropping that number to 44.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY:
 'The AFC rivals have squared of three times in the past six seasons in the playoffs, as well as 6 times during the course of the regular season the last six years as well, so they know one another practically as well as they do their division foes. The well-rested Pats have struggled in game at Denver, going 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS the last nineteen visits, but the Broncos have quarterback issues and are riding a 0-4 SU and ATS losing skein since their bye week in mid October. Safe to say anything can happen tonight.' Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: 
'The little bit of smart money we?ve seen has come on both sides of this game. The public is all over the Pats as we have almost 80 percent of the tickets on that side, but the money handle favors New England 55-45. We?ve taken some sharp money on the under and dropped that two points off the open.' Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - WR Danny Amendola (Probable, Knee), CB Stephon Gilmore (Probable, Concussion), DE Cassius Marsh (Questionable, Shoulder), DB Eric Rowe (Questionable, Groin), DL Malcom Brown (Questionable, Ankle), OL Marcus Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), WR Chris Hogan (Doubtful, Shoulder), OL Andrew Jelks (Questionable, Knee), OL Tony Garcia (Questionable, Illness), LB Shea McClellin (I-R, Concussion), WR Malcom Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (I-R, Pectoral).

Broncos - WR Demaryius Thomas (Probable, Hamstring), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Probable, Ankle), S Darian Stewart (Probable, Thigh), WR Cody Latimer (Probable, Knee), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Neck), WR Bennie Fowler III (Questionable, Ankle), G Ron Leary (Questionable, Elbow), G Matt Paradis (Questionable, Back), RB C.J. Anderson (Questionable, Ankle), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Questionable, Ankle), OT Menelik Watson (I-R, Foot), TE Jake Butt (I-R, Knee), QB Chad Kelly (I-R, Wrist).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U): New England has not been an offensive juggernaut during its winning streak, averaging just under 22 points per game, but Brady leads the league with 2,541 passing yards while throwing for 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Brady continues to spread the wealth, with five different receivers catching at least five passes in a 21-13 victory over San Diego before the bye, but wideout Chris Hogan is expected to miss the game due to injury. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has five touchdown receptions and is second to running back James White with 34 catches, missed last season's 16-3 victory in Denver. The Patriots owned the league's worst defense through four games but they have yielded an average of 12.8 points over the past four.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Osweiler, set to make his second straight start following the benching of Trevor Siemian, beat the Patriots while with Denver in 2015, passing for 270 yards and a score in a 30-24 overtime victory. Duplicating that feat could be considerably tougher this time around with his three top receivers -- Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler -- and three of his starting offensive linemen all dealing with assorted injuries. The ground game needs to get untracked after C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles managed 35 yards on 21 carries in Philadelphia. Denver's defense is No. 2 in the league with 280.8 yards allowed, but ranks in the middle of the pack with 19 sacks despite the presence of linebacker Von Miller.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

* Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The ********** public is siding with the road fave Patriots at a rate of 69 percent and the Over is getting 56 of the totals action.

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Betting Recap - Week 10
November 13, 2017

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 10 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 7-5-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Packers (+5, ML +190) at Bears, 23-16
49ers (+3, ML +140) vs. Giants, 31-21

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-13) vs. Texans, 33-7
Lions (-10) vs. Browns, 38-24
Patriots (-7) at Patriots, 41-16

Marching In

-- The New Orleans Saints rolled up an impressive 47-10 road win against the Buffalo Bills, posting six rushing touchdowns in the process. The Saints started out 0-2 SU/ATS, but they're a perfect 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS during their current seven-game winning streak. Next up is a home date with the Washington Redskins and a high-anticipated battle on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. Not many believed, even a few weeks ago, that a former NFC West battle between the Rams and Saints would have playoff implications.

Break Up the Niners

-- The San Francisco 49ers didn't look like a winless team in their 31-21 victory against the New York Giants, earning the straight-up win and cover as short 'dogs at home. The team traded for QB Jimmy Garoppolo to be their quarterback of the future, but rookie QB C.J. Beathard accounted for three total touchdowns and there is no hurry to thrust Garoppolo in before it is time. The 49ers did enter the game with a total of just 30 points over their past three games, 10 points in each outing. The 'over' has cashed in four of their past six outings thanks mostly to the fact they have given up 20 or more points in six straight games.
Total Recall

-- Sunday Night Football hit the 'over' for the second consecutive week, as the New England Patriots mowed down the Denver Broncos, 41-16. Over bettors were helped by several miscues on special teams which led to plenty of early points, including a muffed punt deep in Denver territory which gave the Patriots favorable field position, and a kickoff return for touchdown midway through the first quarter. The 'over' was a frequent occurrence for the Pats early on, going 4-0 through their first four games, but they tightened up on defense and posted four straight 'under' results until SNF.

-- The game with the lowest total on the board -- Green Bay-Chicago (37.5) ended up inching over thanks to a flurry of scoring in the final quarter. The teams had combined for just 19 points through the first three quarters, and 'under' bettors were on the right side. However, there were 10 total points in the final 5:29 to push the total over the finish line for 'over' bettors. This game was aided by five field goals of 40-plus yards, a 37-yard touchdown run and a 46-yard touchdown reception to go over.

-- The Dallas-Atlanta (49) game offered the highest total on the board, but the 'under' was never in doubt. The Cowboys offense looked disjointed as they adjusted to life without RB Ezekiel Elliott, serving the first of a six-game suspension, and while understudy RB Alfred Morris did a good job, it was the offensive line that did the Cowboys in. OT Tyron Smith was inactive, so DE Adrian Clayborn had a historically good day taking advantage of the patchwork line. He recorded six sacks, second-most in a single game in NFL history, and a new Falcons franchise record. Watch those Dallas 'under' results in future weeks.

-- The 'Over/under' split in the first two primetime games of Week 10, and the 'over' is 19-12 (61.2%) through the first 31 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Miami Dolphins-Carolina Panthers game still on tap. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (concussion) reported concussion-like symptoms after Sunday's game, the result of a helmet-to-helmet hit that wasn't even flagged. He'll have two weeks to recover with the team on a bye in Week 11.

-- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) was forced out of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, entering the NFL's concussion protocol.

-- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) suffered a medial collateral ligament sprain in Sunday's game, and he'll have an MRI on Monday to determine how much time he will miss. RB Ty Montgomery (ribs) also checked out early and did not return.

-- Texans WR Will Fuller (ribs) sustained an injury to his ribs in the first half and he was unable to return to the game.

Looking Ahead

-- For the second consecutive weekend the NFL schedule features just two divisional matchups.

-- Lions and Bears will do battle in Chicago on Sunday. Detroit has had their way with seven straight-up wins over the past eight meetings, and the Lions are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall including 2-0 ATS at Soldier Field. The 'under' has connected in three straght in this series, too.

-- The Eagles and Cowboys will hook up in an important NFC East battle on Sunday Night Football. The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven SNF games, and the 'over' is 2-0 in the past two. The Eagles opened as three-point favorites and the total is up to 48 as of early Monday morning. In this series, the Cowboys have won just once in the past four home games against the Eagles, and they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home against Philadelphia. Over the past two seasons both games at AT&T Stadium in Arlington have been decided in overtime.
 
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Buyer's Remorse - Week 10
November 13, 2017

Sorting Through The Shrapnel of Week 10

One week after enduring a truly boring and predictable Sunday last weekend, the NFL gave us some much deserved entertainment in Week 10.

Out of the 12 Sunday games, five included dastardly underdog covers, six were utter blowouts that were still fun to watch and the other was the Bucs-Jets horror show.

Let?s dig through some of the unexpected outcomes and try and unravel what the hell just happened.

Indianapolis Colts +10.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
(PIT wins 20-17)

Let?s just get it right out of the way ? the Pittsburgh Steelers are not the explosive, high-scoring team that was advertised. Even with everyone on board, the Steelers struggled to connect frequently on big plays and looked awfully sluggish. Maybe it just wasn?t their day, or perhaps they took Indy too lightly. No matter what the excuse, the Pittsburgh Steelers play to the beat of their opponents rather than banging the drum.

Defensively, Pittsburgh took a hit when they lost star cornerback Joe Haden to a broken leg. But they were also ramsacked by the Colts for big plays. Their scoring defence is ranked second in the league but you wouldn?t be able to tell the way Jacoby Brisett was slinging it on Sunday.

This is now the third cover in a row for the Colts, who get a bye before facing a slew of what I expect to be some monster lines. Don?t fall asleep on the Colts. The Steelers sure did on Sunday and paid for it, along with their backers.

Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 over Tennessee Titans
(TEN wins 24-20)

In tight games, one big play can be a complete disaster and that?s what happened when Andy Dalton miraculously connected with A.J. Green for a 70 yard touchdown that spoiled this game for Titans backers. Outside of that, this was a garbage game for the downtrodden Bengals.

As for the Titans, they just don?t seem to have a clear identity on offence. They seem to love running these stupid option plays that historically don?t work in the NFL over the long haul. Plus, Mariota can?t take a hit in the slightest, which makes most of these plays even more risky.

This was a bet on the Titans simply being more competent than the Bengals, and they were, except for one play. That half-point will eat your lunch sometimes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 over New York Jets
(TB Wins 15-10)

The Bucs are now 2-0 SU and ATS when playing their former quarterbacks. That?s the good news. The bad news is that are still unwatchable. A lot of that had to do with the lack of Mike Evans, but the play calling was completely inept. The Bucs ran the ball on almost every first down and pretty much lost yardage or got stuffed every time.

We advertised this game as a good bet for the Jets overall considering how bad the Bucs had been. Statistically and by the numbers, the Jets were a good bet. But this matchup had ?letdown game? stamped right across its forehead in retrospect.

Green Bay Packers +5 over Chicago Bears
(GB wins 23-16)

In no uncertain terms, the Chicago Bears were absolutely screwed in this one. This whole rule with the turnover-fumble-touchdown thing is a complete mockery. It?s like officials are just looking for an excuse to throw the flag on these plays. For the entire existence of the NFL, Benny Cunningham?s score has been a touchdown. It would?ve absolutely changed the tone of an otherwise close game.

Defensively, the Packers played better overall and limited Jordan Howard?s impact on the game. Mitchell Trubisky was his typical, average self. The bright spot was Dontrelle Inman getting involved with 6-of-8 catches for 88 yards, which led the Bears. I?m not down on the Bears at all. They should have and could have won this game if not for the refs. In the end, the result is what it is. But if you feel like you got screwed here by the zebras, you did.

Los Angeles Charges +5 over Jacksonville Jaguars
(JAX wins 20-17)

This was an absolute frenzy of a game, with turnover after turnover after turnover giving everyone headaches. Blake Bortles was literally trying to give this game to the Los Angeles Chargers, but the visiting team returned the favor when it mattered. Josh Lambo booted the last two scores of the game to put his former team away as Jacksonville continued to defy the odds, while Los Anglees covered in their fourth loss of the season by a field goal or less.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys
(ATL wins 27-7)

The Cowboys defence imploded at the same time that Dak Prescott was sophomore-slumped over a barrel. It was simply a horrible performance by the Cowboys, and the turnaround needed that the Falcons were looking for. If anything both teams were due. The Cowboys regressed, and the Falcons finally caught a break at home.

San Francisco 49ers +3 over New York Giants
(SF wins 31-21)

They did it! The Niners won a game! They only had to beat the only other team worse than them to do it!
 
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Books survive, win Week 10
November 13, 2017

Las Vegas sports books were staring at three double-digit favorites the public were happy to lay and the objective was to at least beat one of those and get the Broncos to cover +7.5 in their home game against the Patriots. None of them lost outright, and New England rolled Denver 41-16, but Indianapolis did manage to cover as an 11-point underdog at home in Pittsburgh's 20-17 win, which helped most books to a winning day.

"Pittsburgh not covering was a good game for us," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "The Packers win over the Bears was almost the same good situation for us. We beat down a lot of big money-line parlays with the Bears, but we could have have beat down at least 50 percent of the overall loss if the Steelers has lost."

Stoneback said their large money-line parlay risk on the day was over six figures. It's not seven-figures, but they have quite a few bettors who love laying the big money-line favorites in three-team and four-team parlays. They cashed this week but there were enough underdogs to cover on the day to help the books out, such as the Packers' 23-16 win at Chicago where QB Brett Hundley did just enough to get the win.

"It was a great day on the gridiron," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The Saints and 49ers were big games for the book. The Chargers, Colts, Packers and Falcons were also helpful. Rams were the worst game for us and we need Denver."

Every book in town needed Denver, but McCormick said it was still going to be a solid day even if they didn't cover but that it would have been a "monster day" if Denver won outright. MGM's 10 books on the strip had the same situation with the Broncos impact being a loss but a minimal impact on the day overall.

Despite still having the NFL's worst defense, statistically, the Patriots have that Super Bowl look about them and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder still angry from that opening night home loss to Kansas City. The Broncos, meanwhile, have lost five straight losing by a combined 165-68 score. Denver went into Philadelphia last week with the top-ranked defense, statistically, and promptly gave up 51 there and 41 on Sunday night. It was their third straight game 'over' the total (45) and sixth in nine games this season.

"We did well against the wise guys this week with Houston and the Giants not covering," said Stoneback. "The worst game of the day for us was the Lions covering, even though we had sharp plays on the Browns. We had big action on the first half with the Browns and then all the second half bets were on the Lions. Public money overwhelmed sharp money in this game."

Cleveland jumped all over Detroit (-10) in the first quarter as Lions quarterback Matt Stafford looked like he was sleep walking. This looked like the day the Browns were going to get their first win. They were up 24-17 in the third quarter. If you were one of the wise guys holding +10 and higher, you were feeling pretty good about your situation. But in typical Browns fashion, everything caved in. Stafford would wake up and throw three touchdown passes to finish the game on a 21-0 run and not only win 38-24, but get the cover for all the masses.

William Hill's 107 sports books across the state had 87 percent of the cash wagered on the Giants-49ers game siding with the Giants. The public and sharps both liked the Giants and the spread went from 49ers -1.5 to Giants -3 by kickoff. But the 49ers played well the entire game to get their first win of the season, 31-21, and put their No. 1 overall pick in the draft in jeopardy. The Giants dropped to 1-8 and the 49ers jumped to 1-9.

Perhaps the biggest shocker of Week 10 was the way the New Orleans Saints marched into Buffalo, who were 4-0 at home, and absolutely beat the tar out of the Bills, 47-10. Buffalo had only 198 yards, but the most impressive Saints stat which exemplifies who the saints are best is that they ran the ball 48 times and passed the ball just 25 times. QB Drew Brees isn't needed to go crazy through the air anymore and it's helped the Saints win seven straight and become the best team in the NFC South and a real Super Bowl contender. Had the Saints not kneeled to run the clock out, they would have been credited with over 300 yards rushing on the day, but instead they settled for 298 yards.

The Saints are one of five legitimate Super Bowl contenders out of the NFC which is going to make this stretch run very exciting. We've got the Eagles, Rams, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints and I suppose we can throw the Vikings in as well after their impressive 38-30 win at Washington to give them a five game win streak. That's a log jam of equality at the top with the Eagles holding the slight edge.

The Rams took three field goals to the half for a 9-7 lead over the visiting Texans, but then Jared Goff went off in the third quarter with three TD passes en route to a 33-7 win. The Rams have now won and covered four straight and their plus-134 point differential on the season is tops in the NFL. This game took in 19 percent of William Hill's NFL action Sunday. The thing that tells me the Rams are a team that could truly make the Super Bowl is them going 4-0 on the road. They're at Minnesota this week and the Vikings (-2.5) opened as short favorites.

Ezekiel Elliott proved he might be the most underrated running-back in the league when he was suspended and not much happened to the spread with the Falcons closing at -3.5. Dallas jumped out to a 7-0 lead, but that would be it for the rest of the day in an eventual 27-7 loss. Backup RB Alfred Morris tried to carry the load for Elliott gaining 53 yards in 11 carries, but the knockout burst Elliott provides with every carry just wasn't there with Morris. Dallas is going to have to somehow hang on for their playoff lives until Elliott gets back, but the NFC is awfully crowded at the top and it may be too late when he does get back. Dallas is very average without Elliott.

The Chargers covered +4.5 in a 20-17 overtime loss at Jacksonville and the Jaguars at 6-3 are legitimate contenders capable of upsetting anyone with the league's most fierce pass rush. Their consistent defense masks QB Blake Bortles multiple mistakes. He throws two picks Sunday and his squad picks him up. Their next three games set them up nicely to be 9-3 before a home game against the Seahawks. They go to Cleveland this week, then visit Arizona and finish off the run at home against the Colts. These guys will be contending for home field throughout the playoffs if Bortles can shed the errors.
 
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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at CAR 08:30 PM

MIA +8.5 *****

U 38.5 *****
 
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Newton, Panthers hammer Dolphins 45-21 for 3rd straight win
November 13, 2017

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Cam Newton threw for 254 yards and four touchdowns, rookie Christian McCaffrey scored touchdowns rushing and receiving, and the Carolina Panthers crushed the Miami Dolphins 45-21 on Monday night for their third straight victory.

Jonathan Stewart ran for a season-high 110 yards and Newton added 95, including a 69-yard jaunt on a read option, as the Panthers racked up 294 yards on the ground.

Carolina set a franchise record with 548 yards from scrimmage.

Devin Funchess caught five passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns as the Panthers (7-3) remained a half-game behind the NFC South division leading Saints.

The Dolphins (4-5) have lost three straight.

The game turned with 41 seconds left in the first half when Luke Kuechly intercepted Jay Cutler with Carolina leading 10-7. Four plays later, Newton connected with Ed Dickson on a 7-yard touchdown pass, the first of five straight Carolina touchdown drives.


****************************

Samuel, Larsen hobbled by injuries for Panthers vs. Dolphins
November 13, 2017

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Carolina Panthers rookie receiver Curtis Samuel won't return to Monday's game against Miami because of a left ankle injury.

Samuel was hurt when hurt when a defender rolled over his left ankle after an incompletion in the end zone early in the third quarter. Samuel had to be helped to the locker room.

Samuel is a second-round pick out of Ohio State who recently entered the starting lineup after the Panthers dealt Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo.

Panthers center Tyler Larsen suffered a foot injury and was questionable to return. He was Carolina's second-string center who was pressed into duty with Ryan Kalil out with an injury.

Greg Van Roten replaced Larsen in the third quarter.
 
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Opening Line Report - Week 11
November 13, 2017

Here are the early betting numbers for Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season. Point-spreads are the Las Vegas consensus as of Monday at noon, and totals are from William Hill U.S.

Thursday, Nov. 16

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburg Steelers (-7 even, 44)

While the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Pittsburgh -6.5 before a quick move to -7 and then to -7 (even), CG Technology took a limit bet of $3,000 from a respected player on Tennessee +7, prompting a move to +7 (-120), according to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG.

Sunday, Nov. 19

Detroit Lions (-3, 42) at Chicago Bears

Like for the Thursday nighter discussed above, early sharp money showed up on the 'dog at CG for this NFC North clash. The book moved from Bears +3 to +3 (-120) after that bet, Simbal said.

Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 44) at New York Giants

Las Vegas? first number on this game of Kansas City -13.5, hung at the Westgate, was bet down to -11.5 within 20 minutes Sunday night and to -11 on Monday morning. Westgatemanager Ed Salmons said that numbers from his shop?s group of oddsmakers ranged from 10.5 to 13.5, and they weren?t concerned about early money that came in on the huge home underdog.

?We decided with Andy Reid?s record off the bye to use the high end,? Salmons said of the Westgate?s opening line. ?If we write a couple of dollars now on the Giants, it will probably be about the only money we write on the Giants.?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-3)

CG Tech inched from Miami -3 down to -3 (even) during early action, and the number is as cheap as -2.5 at some offshore locales.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 38) at Green Bay Packers

The Westgate hung Baltimore -3 (even) and moved Sunday night to -2.5, the number at which most Vegas shops opened. While the Packers on Sunday got their first win with backup quarterback Brett Hundley, 23-16 at Chicago, Simbal believes the Ravens are deserving of the road favorite status in this spot, at least based on the lack of early action.

?We?ll find out soon enough if they bet it,? he said. ?I would think yes, because that was not one of the games that they hit right away. If the number was that much off, these guys would have bet it, if not at our place, then somewhere else.?

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 46)

The line at the Westgate for this key NFC showdown seesawed from Minnesota -2.5 to -1.5 and back to -2.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. A line south of 3 indicates the Rams are rated by the betting market as a better team than the Vikings, a notion Simbal isn?t sure he buys.

?I kind of like what the Vikings have going on more than the Rams, but I?m probably in the minority there,? Simbal said. ?I?d be hesitant to take the Rams in this spot. It seems to be a better spot for the Vikings than the Rams.?

Simbal?s opinion is partly based on Sunday?s games, as the Vikings gave up 30 points at Washington but still coasted to a win, while it took the Rams more than half the game to get going at home against the Texans.

?The Rams covered easily today, but they weren?t great until the middle of the third quarter,? Simbal said.

While Los Angeles? 32.9 points per game is tops in the NFL, Salmons said we?re about to learn more about the Rams. After next Sunday?s game at Minnesota, they host the red-hot Saints in Week 12.

?It?s obvious that all the Rams do is score a lot of points and win. They?ve been doing it for a long time now. But a lot of times it?s against bad competition, so this will be the first real test for them,? Salmons said of their upcoming game at Minnesota. ?They?re going into probably the hardest environment they?ve been in this year. Minnesota?s going to have a jacked up crowd, so we?ll see how good the Rams are, but they?re getting a ton of respect with this point-spread.?

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Houston Texans

While CG opened Arizona -1.5 and moved to -1 on Sunday night, William Hill U.S. opened pick ?em and moved to Arizona -1.5. Seems Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton is getting more respect than the Texans? Tom Savage.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38) at Cleveland Browns

The Wynn opened Jacksonville -8 but joined the rest of the crowd at -7.5 within the first few minutes of wagering Sunday night. No matter how many points bookmakers are gifting the home 'dog, it takes gumption to back the Browns, who are not only winless but have cashed just twice all season.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51)

There have been Washington +8s that have showed up on Vegas boards (Coasts, Westgate), but those opportunities have been snapped up by underdog bettors.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-4., 44)

While most shops remain at Chargers -4, the Wynn moved from -4 to -4.5 on Sunday night. After two straight duds, the Bills? record has dropped to 5-4. The Chargers? 3-6 record, meanwhile, is misleading, according to Salmons, who puts their defense among the best in the NFL.

?The Chargers defense is so good right now, it?s ridiculous how good they are,? Salmons said, ?and this team continues to lose in ways that are just impossible. They?re 3-6, and they easily, easily could be 7-2 or 8-1. That team has so much talent, it?s just absurd, and they?re 3-6, which is a joke.?

Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos (-2.5/-120, 40)

The Westgate opened Denver -2.5 (-120) and moved to -3 on Sunday, before the Broncos? latest in a long string of disasters ? a 41-16 primetime loss at home to New England. The shop reopened Denver -2.5 on Monday morning with a return to -2.5 (-120), the original number, about 90 minutes later.

New England Patriots (-5.5, 51) vs. Oakland Raiders (at Mexico City)

This is the matchup many of us were anticipating and hoping for in the AFC playoffs last season, but Derek Carr?s injury eased the Patriots? path. The Raiders aren?t in nearly the form they were in then, but coming off a bye and facing a team playing their second straight road game figures to benefit Oakland.

?It?s about as good as a spot as you can get for a team, so it sets up well for Oakland,? Salmons said.

As we spoke during the first quarter of the Pats? blowout win in Denver on Sunday night, Salmons added, ?New England?s not the same team they?ve been, even if they win tonight. When you watch them, you just know there?s something wrong, it?s obvious.?

Said Simbal, ?I still think it?s going to be all Patriots money with the public. The public has been backing the Patriots slowly but surely the last three, four weeks, and they?ve cashed most of them.?

While the notion Simbal puts forth portends the line growing ahead of kickoff in Mexico City, William Hill is dealing Pats -6.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3/-120, 48) at Dallas Cowboys

Two bets from respected players came in Sunday night laying Philly -3 (-120) at CG, prompting a move to -3 (-125). The Westgate opened Eagles -3.5 with a tweak to -3.5 (even).

The Cowboys were not only without running back Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday in Atlanta, they were also missing Tyron Smith, one of the best left tackles in the league. QB Dak Prescott was sacked eight times, six by Adrian Clayborn, in the Falcons? 27-7 win.

?Dallas looked pretty ordinary on offense today without Zeke and Smith, and the Eagles have been getting so much respect all year,? Simbal said.

Salmons agreed, ?Dallas looked like a different team (Sunday).?

Monday, Nov. 20

Seattle Seahawks (-3 even, 45) at Atlanta Falcons

The Westgate is dealing Seattle -3, but the line is drifting in Atlanta?s direction, sitting Seattle -3 (even) at some shops and -2.5 at Treasure Island.

While the Seahawks are all kinds of banged up, the Falcons are getting respect with this line, thanks partly to Sunday?s performance against Dallas.

Even with the win over the Cowboys, Salmons said of Atlanta, ?It?s just not the same team as last year. The offense is just not the same. It reminds you of New England ? you think they can be what they were last year, but they?re just not.?

Instead of the Week 11 Monday nighter being a battle at the top of the NFC, it features a pair of teams that figure to be fighting for a wild-card spot as the season nears its end.

?Once the sharp guys get a sense for where this line may go, then they?ll play around with the number, but to me, this is a tricky one for the public,? Simbal said. ?They?re going to have a little trouble figuring out what to do with this one.?
 
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NFL Record For November......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/13/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/12/2017 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
11/09/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals.........18 - 26 - 2......40.90%.......-53.00

Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/13/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
11/12/2017................1 - 2..................-4.50...............1 - 8............-39.00...............-43.50
11/09/2017..............0 - 0 - 1...............+0.00..............1 - 0............+5.00................+5.00
11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

Totals........................3 - 6..................-11.00................5 - 11...........-40.50..............-51.50


*******************


11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner
 
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NFL opening line report: Eagles open as 3.5-point road favorites vs. Cowboys
Patrick Everson

?No one would?ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are.?

The team at the top of the NFC East is not the one most people expected through 10 weeks of the season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for a key clash involving that team, along with three other Week 11 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)

Philadelphia is certainly one of the top surprise teams of the year, piling up seven consecutive wins en route to the best record in the NFL. The Eagles (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) are also coming off their bye week, after dismantling Denver 51-23 as a 7-point favorite in Week 9.

Dallas, which won the NFC East last year with a 13-3 record, can?t seem to regain that form, and it didn?t get any easier in Week 10 without the now-suspended Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys were 3.5-point underdogs at Atlanta and got rolled 27-7.

?No one would?ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are,? Cooley said. ?Philadelphia has made leaping strides this season and is well above the Cowboys in our power ratings. As we all know, JerryWorld doesn?t exactly provide a home-field edge, so the Eagles deserved to be above the field-goal threshold. However, I do expect this will close at a field goal.?

In fact, late Sunday night, the line had already ducked down to 3.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Pittsburgh was among the preseason favorites in the Super Bowl futures book, but hasn?t looked much the part this season. Yet the Steelers are still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS), after rallying from a 17-3 deficit to post a 20-17 victory at Indianapolis as a 10.5-pint chalk.

Like the Steelers, Tennessee (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has won four in a row (1-2-1 ATS). The Titans got a last-minute touchdown Sunday to top Cincinnati 24-20, though they fell just short at the betting window as 4.5-point favorites.

?Marcus Mariota looked like his old self this week, while the Steelers slept-walked through an ugly affair,? Cooley said. ?Still, we know this Pittsburgh offense can explode any week, and we know that the public is going to back the Steelers through and through. We?ll likely see some serious sharp money on the road ?dog.?

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (no line)

New England is definitely rounding into form heading into this neutral-site clash in Mexico City. The Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) flattened Denver 41-16 in the Sunday nighter, easily cashing as a 7-point road chalk.

Oakland had a bye in Week 10 and is hoping to climb back to .500 in what many observers thought would be a much better season. The Raiders (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) edged Miami 27-24 in Week 9, pushing as a 3-point road favorite.

Since the Patriots were in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on the opening line until Monday.

?If everything goes accordingly, we?ll look to make the Pats around 6-point chalk,? Cooley said. ?Something just isn?t right with the Raiders these days.?

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

In Week 10, Atlanta finally looked a little more like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) pulled away from Dallas in the second half for a 27-7 victory laying 3.5 points at home.

Seattle comes into this Monday night matchup with a little more rest, having played the Week 10 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) held off Arizona 22-16 to push as a 6-point fave. However, Seattle lost superstar cornerback Richard Sherman for the rest of the year, due to a ruptured Achilles tendon.

?We?re going to find out very quickly how much the Seahawks miss Sherman. My guess is a ton,? Cooley said. ?They already had ample offensive deficiencies, and now there?s a gaping hole in the secondary. If not for Russell Wilson, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL. On the other side, is Atlanta finally hitting its stride??
 
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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 11 NFL lines are going to move

New England is now tied with the Steelers for the best record in the AFC at 7-2, after showing no mercy on Sunday against Denver.

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

New England at Oakland (+5.5)

Lots of commentators would like to take back what they said about the Patriots when the Bill Belichick-led club was treading water at 2-2. New England is now tied with the Steelers for the best record in the AFC at 7-2, after showing no mercy on Sunday against Denver, and now will get the benefit of a neutral field (Mexico City) in a ?road? game against the Raiders.

It?s good to be the king, no? And the Patriots are doing this (five straight wins, three straight covers) with several key players out. It doesn?t seem to matter, as long as their 40-year-old quarterback is upright. NE will start to attract lots of money as the season winds down, and anything under seven is an attractive number.

Game to wait on

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota (-2.5)

It used to be you could pencil in the Packers to win the NFC North, but Aaron Rodgers?s injury has opened a large door for the Vikings, and Minny has taken full advantage with five straight wins.

The Vikes have a great opportunity to nail down the division over a five-day period starting Sunday against the Rams. A win, coupled with a victory over Detroit on Thanksgiving, could just about lock down the North.

And they?re doing it with re-tread QB Case Keenum, who threw for 302 yards and four TDs in the Vikings? win over Washington on Sunday. If you like the Rams in this one, hang on because bettors will probably jump at 2.5 and some lines will be bet up to a full field goal.

Total to watch

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (44)

Huge game for both division leaders. The Steelers need to keep pace with the red-hot Patriots ahead of their mid-December showdown in Pittsburgh, and the Titans are desperate to get the Jaguars off their backs in a surprising AFC South race (they?re both 6-3).

While Pittsburgh and Tennessee are both solid and winning, neither has had an offensive burst in the last month. The Titans are averaging under 20 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has averaged 22 in its last four.

Turnovers decide a lot of games in the NFL ? especially close games ? so expect both teams to keep things pretty conservative in this one. Even at a moderate number like 44, the Under deserves a hard look in this one.
 
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 16

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TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 2) - 11/16/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (5 - 4) at CHICAGO (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
CHICAGO is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (6 - 3) at NY GIANTS (1 - 8) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 36-63 ATS (-33.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) at MIAMI (4 - 5) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 4) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 184-130 ATS (+41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (7 - 2) at MINNESOTA (7 - 2) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 181-227 ATS (-68.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 181-227 ATS (-68.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 82-116 ATS (-45.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 129-179 ATS (-67.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 140-179 ATS (-56.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-95 ATS (-38.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 5) at HOUSTON (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (6 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 9) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 2) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (5 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (3 - 6) at DENVER (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DENVER is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 5) - 11/19/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (8 - 1) at DALLAS (5 - 4) - 11/19/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (5 - 4) at SEATTLE (6 - 3) - 11/20/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 16

TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home


Sunday, November 19

DETROIT @ CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

ARIZONA @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

LA RAMS @ MINNESOTA
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams

WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Washington

JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND
Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 10 games at home
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

KANSAS CITY @ NY GIANTS
Kansas City is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
NY Giants is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

BUFFALO @ LA CHARGERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo

CINCINNATI @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Denver
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing New England

PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games


Monday, November 20

ATLANTA @ SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
 
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NFL ATS Leaders thru Week 10:

t1. Eagles 7-2 ATS
t1. Saints 7-2 ATS
t3. LARams 6-3 ATS
t3. Vikings 6-3 ATS
t3. Chiefs 6-3 ATS


NFL ATS Losers thru Week 10:

32. Browns 2-7 ATS
t31. Bucs 2-6-1 ATS
t31. Broncos 2-6-1 ATS
t31. Cardinals 2-6-1 ATS
t28. Giants 3-6 ATS
t28. Redskins 3-6 ATS
t28. Falcons 3-6 ATS
 
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11
Monty Andrews

The Jacksonville Jaguars have intercepted opponents 11 times this season and have 19 takeaways on the season. No one has turned the ball over more than the Cleveland Browns this season.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, 38)

Ravens' ruthless pass rush vs. Packers' poor O-line play

You might see the Ravens sitting in the middle of the pack in sacks (22) and wonder how this pass rush could be considered among the elite. A closer look reveals that Baltimore ranks 12th in sack rate (7.24 percent) and has forced a league-high 13 interceptions, leading to an NFL-best 270 interception return yards and two returns for touchdowns. Baltimore is coming off a three-sack effort in last week's 23-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans.

The Packers have already lost one quarterback to injury this season, and will need to do a better job of protecting the backup. Green Bay is one of only six teams to have already surrendered at least 30 sacks, and its 8.7-percent sack rate against is fifth-worst in the NFL.

Brett Hundley was taken down three times for a total of 30 yards lost in last week's victory over Chicago, and could be in for a long afternoon if the Ravens are able to exert their pass-rush dominance over Green Bay's suspect O-line.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (+7.5, 37.5)

Jaguars' ball-thieving prowess vs. Browns' turnover troubles

Jacksonville has reeled off three wins in a row, and boasts one of the league's top point differentials at plus-92. Winning turnover battles has played a bit part in the Jaguars' resurgence, and they'll look to continue that success against a Cleveland team struggling to hang onto the ball.

One year has made all the difference in the world for Jacksonville, in a variety of areas. Turnovers is near the top of that list; after finishing with an abysmal minus-16 turnover differential last season - only the New York Jets and Chicago Bears fared worse - the Jaguars have completed a dramatic 180-degree turn, coming into this week ranked fifth with a plus-7 differential.
Jacksonville has forced a whopping 18 turnovers (11 interceptions, seven fumble recoveries); only the Los Angeles Rams have more.

Things aren't nearly as rosy for the woeful Browns, who once again own one of the league's worst turnover ratios. Cleveland comes into Week 11 with a dismal minus-13 turnover differential, ahead of only the Denver Broncos. Interceptions have been the biggest issue for the Browns; they've been picked off 18 times already in 2017, five more than the next closest team.

Look for that total - and the overall differential - to climb against one of the top secondaries in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 39.5)

Bengals' red-zone rejections vs. Broncos' bungling down-field offense

Two of the league's most disappointing teams face off in Colorado this weekend as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Denver Broncos. Both teams had high hopes coming into the season, but injuries and ineffectiveness on both rosters have them carrying identical 3-6 records into this one. Denver's biggest problem has been an inability to convert red-zone visits into points - and it just so happens that Cincinnati, despite its struggles, has been one of the league's top teams at preventing red-zone scores.

Only the Los Angeles Chargers have been better at keeping opponents from turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns than the Bengals, who have limited foes to a 38.7-percent success rate on the season.

It's a dramatic improvement from the 51-percent TD rate opponents boasted vs. Cincinnati a season ago. The Bengals are also allowing just 1.3 touchdowns on red-zone visits per game so far this season, the eighth-best rate in the NFL.

Denver's red-zone offense was an area of concern last season, when the Broncos produced touchdowns on just 46.8 percent of their trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line - the fifth-worst rate in the league. But things are even worse in 2017, with Denver scoring TDs on 43.3 percent of red-zone visits; only Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have been less prolific.

An inconsistent running game and terrible QB play have contributed - and if neither improves Sunday, expect more frustration in the Mile High State.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 48.5)

Cowboys' dismal third-down D vs. Eagles' drive-extension mastery

The marquee matchup of Week 11 pits the NFC-leading Eagles against the rival Cowboys, who struggled mightily without standout offensive lineman Tyron Smith last week.

Dallas yielded eight sacks in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and need a win this week to remain in the hunt for the NFC East crown. But the red-hot Eagles have won seven consecutive games and have a significant advantage against the Cowboys when it comes to third-down situations.

Philadelphia has done just about everything well so far this season, which explains why they're the class of the conference through 10 weeks. But the Eagles have been particularly good when it comes to converting third downs, doing so at a 46.8-percent clip so far - behind only the Rams and Carolina Panthers. It's a major reason why Philadelphia ranks second behind the Panthers in time of possession, controlling the football for an average of 33 minutes, 12 seconds per game.

The Cowboys' problems on the offensive side of the ball - in addition to Smith, they're without franchise running back Ezekiel Elliott due to suspension - have garnered the majority of the headlines. But bettors shouldn't ignore the fact that the Dallas defense has allowed teams to extend drives or score on 43.5 percent of their third-down opportunities - the sixth-worst rate in the NFL.

The Eagles are one of the most dangerous teams in football - and the Cowboys can't afford to let them hold on to the ball.
 
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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 11 approaching??

? Tennessee is 7-15 vs spread in its last 22 games as a road underdog.

? Washington covered once in its last six games.

? Dolphins are 2-10-2 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

? New England is 17-8 vs spread in its last 25 games.

? Philadelphia covered its last six games.

? Seattle is 3-7-1 vs spread in its last eleven games
 
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Dunkel

Week 11

Thursday, November 16

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

Game 311-312
November 16, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.672
Pittsburgh
134.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+7 1/2); Under


Sunday, November 19

Detroit @ Chicago

Game 451-452
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.037
Chicago
133.025
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Under

Kansas City @ NY Giants

Game 453-454
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
138.007
NY Giants
120.950
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 17
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
45
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Over

Tampa Bay @ Miami

Game 455-456
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
122.884
Miami
129.230
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-1); Over

Baltimore @ Green Bay

Game 457-458
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
135.490
Green Bay
130.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2
38
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-2); Over

LA Rams @ Minnesota

Game 459-460
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
138.039
Minnesota
145.046
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2); Over

Arizona @ Houston

Game 461-462
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
130.335
Houston
128.392
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+1); Over

Washington @ New Orleans

Game 465-466
November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
136.788
New Orleans
143.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 8
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+8); Over

Buffalo @ LA Chargers

Game 467-468
November 19, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.628
LA Chargers
130.011
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 5
44
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+5); Under

Cincinnati @ Denver

Game 469-470
November 19, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
122.039
Denver
129.527
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Over

New England @ Oakland

Game 471-472
November 19, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.067
Oakland
128.587
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 11 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Game 473-474
November 19, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
136.700
Dallas
141.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+4); Over


Monday, November 20

Atlanta @ Seattle

Game 475-476
November 20, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.272
Seattle
136.016
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
Even
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3); Under
 
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