NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, March 14
Wednesday
Texas Southern (-4) vs North Carolina Central
Texas Southern started this season 0-13 with a ridiculous streak of guarantee games against big-name teams; 11 of the 13 teams are ranked in top 120. Tigers are in NCAA?s for 4th time in five years; they?re coached by former Indiana coach Davis, start frosh/soph G?s. TSU won its last seven games, North Carolina Central won its last five. NCC finished 6th in MEAC; they play slow (#320) pace, TSU plays fast (#35). Eagles start two freshman G?s. NCC is 16-11 vs teams ranked below #200- they beat SWAC?s Southern 80-67. MEAC teams are 3-4 in play-in games; SWAC teams are 1-7.
Arizona State (-1) vs Syracuse
Syracuse won its first NCAA tourney game last seven times they were in, with last first-round loss in ?06 to Texas A&M, but they were usually a very high seed. Orange did get to Final Four as a 10-seed two years ago. Syracuse finished T10 in ACC this year; they play slow (#342) pace, are 3-5 in last eight games- their bench plays fewest minutes in country- they have no senior starters. Arizona State went 8-11 in Pac-12 after being 12-0 at Christmas; they lost five of last six games, start three seniors. Sun Devils play fast (#36) pace. ASU is 10-9 vs top 100 teams; Syracuse is 5-9 vs top 50 teams.
Thursday?s NCAA games
Day Games
Oklahoma is 4-11 in its last 15 games after starting season 14-2; they haven?t played since Wednesday. Sooners are #303 experience team with no senior starters. In their last three games, Oklahoma is 22-82 (26.8%) behind the arc. Rhode Island split its last eight games; they lost A-14 final on Sunday. Rams start four seniors; they?re 4-6 vs top 100 teams. URI forces turnovers 22.8% of time (#5). Over last five years, favorites are 12-8 vs spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games. Over last three years, Big X teams are 12-2 SU vs A-14 teams, 9-4 vs spread.
Tennessee is in NCAAs for 1st time since 2014; Barnes is in for 14th time in last 17 years, but first time since ?15- he is 9-4 in his last 13 1st-round games. Vols played SEC title game Sunday, now has early tip time on Thursday; pretty quick turnaround. Tennessee is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 10+. Wright State coach Nagy was 1-2 vs spread in 1st-round when he was at South Dakota St. Raiders finished 2nd in Horizon; their last game was March 6. Horizon League reps are 2-4 vs spread in 1st-round games the last six years.
Gonzaga will have big crowd support in this game in Boise; Zags won their last nine 1st-round games (5-4 vs spread). Gonzaga is #239 experience team that won its last 14 games; they lost national title game 71-65 LY, re-tooled, are 30-4 this year- they?re 8-4 vs top 100 teams, but aren?t great defending arc (#210 in 3-pt %age). NC-Greensboro lost by 12 to Virginia, by 6 to Wake Forest in its high-profile games; they get 40% of their points from arc (35.5% on 3?s). SoCon teams lost last nine 1st-round games, going 1-3 vs spread last four years.
Ivy League teams covered seven of last eight 1st-round games, going 3-2 SU in last five, with all five decided by 6 or fewer points, but this is first time since ?89 that Ivy League rep is a 16-seed. Penn lost 90-62 to Villanova, 60-51 to Temple in its top 100 games this year; Quakers are #135 experience team. Kansas is 3-5-1 vs spread in last one 1st-round games; Jayhawks are 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with five wins by 30+ points. Kansas makes 40.3% on arc; they won eight of last nine games. Penn opponents shot only 29.6% on arc this season.
Duke is 2-4 vs spread in its last six first round games; they?re 8-0 vs teams ranked lower than #100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Blue Devils are 2nd-least experienced team in country but they do have senior G in Allen. Iona is #26 experience team that is in NCAAs for third year in row- they lost 1st round games 93-77 (Oregon), 94-81 (Iowa St) last two years. Gaels finished 4th in MAAC this year; they lost 71-62 to Syracuse of ACC. Iona shoots 38.8% on arc. Over last six years, #2 seeds are 12-11-1 against the spread in 1st round games.
Last six years, ACC teams are 13-25 vs spread in 1st-round games. Loyola is in NCAAs for first time since 1985; Ramblers won at Florida- they lost 87-53 in Boise, 73-56 in Milwaukee in non-MVC games (9-2). MVC teams won last eight 1st-round games; 6 of 8 wins were Wichita/Creighton, who have moved on. Miami won five of last six 1st-round games; they?re experience team #307, starting two frosh and a soph. Miami is 11-1 outside ACC (#283 NC sked), losing to New Mexico St in Diamond Head. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.
South Dakota State is in NCAA?s for 5th time in seven years, going 2-2 vs spread in previous four 1st-round games. Jackrabbits are #49 experience team that turns ball over least of any team in country (13.8%)- they beat Big 14?s Iowa 80-72 in November. Ohio State is 24-8 but lost three of last five games; Holtmann won/covered his three 1st-round tourney games while at Butler. Buckeyes are 9-4 outside Big 14, with all four losses to top 30 teams. Summit teams are 1-14 SU in this round, 5-4 vs spread the last nine years, covering only two times they were a #12-seed.
Seton Hall is #55 experience team that lost six of last 10 games; three of their last four games were decided either by 1 point or in OT. Pirates are 10-2 outside ACC, losing to Louisville of ACC by a hoop. NC State is 5-4 in its last nine games; they start frosh/soph guards- they?re #179 experience team. State is in NCAAs for first time since ?15; Keatts is in for 3rd year in row, losing but covering his 1st-round game last two years for UNCW. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-12 SU vs ACC teams. Last five years, favorites are 11-8 vs spread in #8-9 seed games.
Night Games
Last nine years, 16-seeds who won their play-in game are 7-11 vs spread in their next game, vs a #1-seed. Radford played only two guys more than 26:00 Tuesday, in their 8th straight win; Highlanders are 0-4 vs top 100 games, losing by 10-12-27-15 points. Villanova won its last five games; they?re 13-0 outside the Big East, Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South; Wildcats are 11-0 vs teams outside top 100; three of their last six games went to OT. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.
Kentucky is least experienced team in country, starting four freshman, one soph; Wildcats won seven of last eight games- they?re 10-2 outside the SEC (NC sked #43), 7-9 vs top 50 teams, 4-7 vs spread in its last 11 first round games. Davidson won 8 of its last 9 games; they?re 5-6 outside A-14, 2-4 vs top 50 teams. Wildcats shoot 39.1% on arc, have #11 eFG% in country. Last three years, A-14 teams are 10-7?1 vs spread when getting points from an SEC squad. Last five years, A-14 teams are 7-5 vs spread when getting points in this round.
Houston is in NCAAs for first time since ?10; Cougars won 10 of last 12 games- they?re #48 experience team that is 10-2 outside AAC (#250 NC sked), 10-4 vs top 100 teams- they?ve got #9 eFG% defense in country. San Diego State won last nine games after PG Kell got healthy; Aztecs are 3-2 vs top 50 teams, 7-3 outside Mountain West- they?re in NCAA?s for first time since ?15, won last three first-round games. Last three years, AAC teams are 3-5 SU in this round, 2-3 vs spread when favored. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.
Texas Tech lost five of its last seven games; they had some players banged-up but they?re back now. Tech is 11-1 outside tough Big X, beating Abilene Christian of Southland 74-47 back in December. Red Raiders are 9-1 vs teams not ranked in top 100, with all nine wins by 18+ points. SF Austin is in tournament for 4th time in five years; they upset VCU, West Virginia in two of three 1st round games, lost other game by 7. Lumberjacks won 10 of last 11 games; they played three SEC teams this year (1-2), with three games decided by total of seven points.
Alabama lost six of last eight games, finished T9 in SEC, but upset Auburn in SEC tourney; they?re #348 experience team, 8-4 outside SEC (#84 NC sked). Crimson Tide shoots 32.4% on arc- their frosh PG Sexton is their best player. Virginia Tech is #156 experience team that finished 7th in ACC; Hokies beat Ole Miss by 3, lost by 7 at Kentucky in two SEC games. Bama is in NCAA?s for first time since 2012; Tech lost by 10 to Wisconsin LY, their first NCAA game in decade. Last three years, ACC teams are 32-23 SU vs SEC, 17-12 vs spread when favored.
Arizona won Pac-12 tourney last week, winning by 16-11ot-14 points; last two times Arizona won Pac-12 tourney, Wildcats won first NCAA tourney game by 21-18 points (1-0-1 vs spread)- Wildcats are 2-4-1 vs spread overall in last seven first round games. Arizona won seven of its last eight games; three of their last seven went to OT. Buffalo won 19 of its last 22 games; they?re 0-5 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 6-14-11-7-16 points. Bulls are in 3rd NCAA in four years, losing last two by 6-7 points. MAC teams are 6-3 vs spread in last nine NCAAs.
Big Sky teams haven?t won an NCAA tourney game since 2006; they?re 1-5-1 vs spread in first round last seven years. Montana is in for first time in five years; they?re 3-2 vs spread in last five NCAA first round games. Griz won 19 of last 21 games; they?re 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-16-3-3 points- they lost 70-57 to Big 14?s Penn State. Michigan won its last four first round game (2-2 vs spread); they?ve won nine games in row, have been off for 10 days since winning Big 14 tourney. Wolverines are #202 experience team; they?re 18-2 vs teams outside top 50.
#11-seeds who win the play-in games are 8-6 vs spread in their next game. St Bonaventure finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they?re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G?s- they won 14 of last 15 games, are 11-2 outside A-14, 8-4 vs top 100 teams. Florida covered six of its last eight first round games; they?ve made Elite 8 in their last five NCAA?s. Gators make 37.5% of their 3?s; they take lot of them. Florida is 8-4 outside the SEC (#54 NC sked). Bonnies played four kids 35:00+ in their win over UCLA- they survived their best player Adams going 2-16 from floor.
Friday?s games
Day Games
Providence lost in Big East final Saturday; all three tournament games went to OT. Friars are #117 experience team, starting three seniors- they lost five of last six first round games in this tournament. Providence is 7-7 in last 14 games overall; they?re 9-4 outside Big East (#191 NC sked), 6-9 vs top 50 teams. Texas A&M is 3-4 in its last seven games; they?re 11-1 outside SEC (NC sked #38) but were only 9-10 inside SEC. they?re #233 experience team. Over the last five years, favorites are 12-8 against the spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games.
Purdue won 15 of last 17 first round games, covering four of last six; Boilermakers start four seniors, are #52 experience team- they make 42% of their 3?s. Purdue is 13-2 outside Big 14 (#145 NC sked); they?re 12-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Cal State-Fullerton won eight of last ten games; they?ve got good guards, are #3 team in country in %age of their points scored on foul line. Titans are #235 experience team- they?re 5-5 outside Big West (#80 NC sked); they?re 1-4 vs top 100 teams. Big West teams are 2-5 vs spread in this round the last seven years.
Wednesday?s other tournaments
To me, these games are a crapshoot; there is no way of knowing which teams will come to compete, and which teams will just go through the motions.
Exhibit A: USC?s best player Chimezie Metu chose not to play Tuesday nite, because he?s going to the NBA and he doesn?t want to get hurt.
Marquette won five of its last seven games; they?re #312 experience team that is 6-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Golden Eagles shoot 41.5% outside arc (#3)- they went 9-9 in Big East, which ain?t bad. Harvard lost Ivy League title game Sunday afternoon; they won 12 of last 15 games, are 4-9 outside Ivy League, 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 18-16-9-6 points.
UL-Lafayette is 27-6, winning 24 of last 28 games; they?re 8-3 outside Sun Belt, losing by 18 at Ole Miss in only SEC game this year. Ragin? Cajuns will be excited to play LSU, who they last played eight years ago, losing 66-58. ULL is #51 experience team, starting three juniors, two seniors. LSU won its last six home games but lost three of last four games overall.
Penn State lost four of its last six games; they?re #243 experience team, 10-3 outside Big 14, albeit against #324 NC schedule. Nittany Lions are 15-6 vs teams ranked outside the top 50. Temple lost five of its last seven games; they?re 3-7 vs top 50 teams, but two of the wins were back in November. Owls lost their last three true road games, by 7-6-18 points.
Mississippi State lost three of last four games; they?re #326 experience team that is 11-1 outside SEC, with only loss by 15 at Cincinnati- their non-SEC schedule is 345th out of 351 in nation. Nebraska won eight of its last ten games; they?re 10-5 outside Big 14 (#271 NC sked). Huskers won three of last four true road games. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 14-8 SU vs SEC foes.
Utah won six of last eight games but lost by hoop to Oregon in first round of Pac-12 tourney; Utes are #35 experience team that is 8-3 outside Pac-12- they beat Hawai?i by 20 in only game vs Big West team this season. Cal-Davis won six of last seven games; since Feb 1, they?ve won three games in either double or triple OT. Aggies split pair of Pac-12 tilts against Washington schools.
BYU split its last six games, upsetting St Mary?s in WCC semis but losing by 20 in finals; Cougars are 11-2 outside WCC, but lost by 12 at home to Utah in only Pac-12 game this year. BYU lost four of its last six road games. Stanford won five of its last seven games; they?re 6-7 outside the Pac-12 (NC sked #69); they beat USF by 12, Pacific by 9 in two games vs WCC foes this season.
Washington lost six of its last nine games but they won five of last six home games; Huskies are #304 experience team that is 10-3 outside Pac-12 (NC sked #169)- they force turnovers 21.1% of time. Boise State is 4-3 in its last seven games; they?re #70 experience team that is 15-1 at home this year, with only loss to Nevada. Broncos won by 3 at Oregon in their only Pac-12 game.
Colgate went 12-6, finishing 2nd in Patriot League, losing to Bucknell in tourney final. Raiders won five of last six games; they?re 1-7 vs teams ranked in top 200, with only win by 5 over UMBC back in November. San Francisco is #266 experience team that is 7-5 outside WCC; Dons are 9-2 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Colgate is 19-13, their first winning season in a decade.
South Dakota won seven of last nine games; they?re #139 experience team that plays pace #67. Coyotes are 9-4 outside Summit League; they beat Southern Miss by 13 in only game vs C-USA opponent this year. North Texas went 8-10 in C-USA this year after going 9-27 last two years; Mean Green lost seven of last eight games, with six losses by 6 or fewer points, or in OT.
Grand Canyon gets great crowd support; they lost WAC final by 14 to New Mexico St, their first loss in last six games. Antelopes are 10-5 outside WAC (NC sked #346); teams shoot 26.7% on arc against them (#1st in nation). Mercer won eight of its last nine games; they?re experience team #12 that is 5-6 outside SoCon. Bears play pace #339, one of slowest in country.
Campbell won four of last seven games; they went 10-8 in Big South; Camels are 4-7 vs teams ranked in top 200- they won seven of last eight home games. Miami OH lost seven of its last ten games; Red Hawks are #322 experience team that plays #244 pace- they?re 5-6 outside MAC. Miami lost four of its last five road games, with their last true three road games all going OT.
Rio Grande Valley lost five of last six games; they?re #133 experience team that plays pace #9- despite that, their eFG% is #343. Vaqueros are 2-1 vs Southland teams this year, losing 111-106 to Nicholls St, then sweeping a pair with Corpus Christi. New Orleans lost six of last nine games; Privateers are 0-8 vs D-I teams outside Southland, but they played NC schedule #3; they turn ball over 22.4% of the time.
Central Arkansas won four of last five games, but lost to SF Austin in Southland semis; Bears are 5-7 outside Southland, 1-11 vs teams ranked in top 200- they play pace #17, are coached by guy who was interim coach at Arizona after Lute Olson retired. Seattle lost four of last five games; they?re 8-6 outside Southland. Redhawks won last six home games, including one vs N Mex St.
Long road trip from Alabama to frigid Buffalo; Jacksonville State hasn?t played in 12 days since semi-final loss to Murray State in OVC semis. Gamecocks are #61 experience team that is 8-4 outside OVC- they lost three of last four true road games. Canisius won 17 of last 21 games, but got upset in Quinnipiac in MAAC tourney; Griffins are #262 experience team- they lost by 8 at Tennessee State in only game vs an OVC opponent.
St Francis won five of last six games; they?re 4-5 outside NEC, 16-6 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Red Flash is #240 experience team; they?re 3-1 in OT games. Ill-Chicago lost four of its last six games, giving up 82.3 ppg in last three games; Flames are 3-8 outside Horizon- they turn ball over 20.9% of time. UIC is 14-3 this season against teams ranked outside top 200.
Niagara lost three of last four games with Scott injured; Eagles haven?t played in 11 days, so no idea if he?ll be back here. Niagara won six of last nine road games; they?re 7-6 outside MAAC, but lost by 19 at home to Buffalo in only game vs MAC opponent. Eastern Michigan plays 2-3 zone like Syracuse; they won seven of last eight games, are #120 experience team, 6-4 outside MAC.
Tex-San Antonio won nine of last 12 games; Roadrunners are #305 experience team that plays pace #33- they?re 4-6 outside C-USA, winning by 14-16 points in their two games vs Southland opponents. Lamar is #6 experience team; they start four seniors, one junior. Cardinals are 4-5 outside Southland, winning by 14 at UTEP in their one game against a Conference USA foe.
