college plays for 8/28 - 9/1...
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks os....appreciate it.
adding...
u 48(130) tenn/ ucla.....
both teams are starting new qb's under new systems....so i look for conservative play calling until the qbs & teams get acclimated.tenn. am looking for short passing game from bothteams.
like ucla's def. coordinator (think he is under-rated) & am sure he will devise something to slow the tenn. offense down...also think that the tenn. 2ndary has potential to be very good.
a system supporting the play....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ucla) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....30-8........78.9%
the average total posted in these games was....45.7
the average score in these games was...team 19.8.....opponent 16.8...total points scored.....36.7
the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25.....65.8% of all games
over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....13-4
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....20-5
good luck
adding...
u 48(130) tenn/ ucla.....
both teams are starting new qb's under new systems....so i look for conservative play calling until the qbs & teams get acclimated.tenn. am looking for short passing game from bothteams.
like ucla's def. coordinator (think he is under-rated) & am sure he will devise something to slow the tenn. offense down...also think that the tenn. 2ndary has potential to be very good.
a system supporting the play....
play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ucla) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....30-8........78.9%
the average total posted in these games was....45.7
the average score in these games was...team 19.8.....opponent 16.8...total points scored.....36.7
the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25.....65.8% of all games
over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....13-4
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....20-5
good luck
You hit on a gem there AR, I will play this one.
In fact I will make this a big one. While I was in
Socal, I had the opportunity to go to several
UCLA games. I know this team, and I know they
will struggle to score 17 points in this game, but
I also know they will give Tennessee fits, good
find.
Glad to have you around for another profitable season, Al.
Best of luck and thanks for the work.
Best of luck and thanks for the work.
Gonna try this, as I get calls from at least 4 books regularly despite many requests to stop.
Glad to see you around, chief. Like BBC, I was going to post these as my own
Oh, well. Back to the drawing board..........
thanks guy...appreciate it.
adding...
under 49(120) bama/ clemson...
after the bama offense struggled last season, saban brought in another new offensive coodinator (it seems like he has brought a new one in every year).......& learning a new offense will come with growing pains and probably will not click right away.....i think this is especially going to be true for this game as bama faces what is going to be a pretty good clemson def......with 3/4 of their def line intact, and the entire defensive backfield.bama had serious problems passing the ball with any consistancy last year and going up against what was the 9th best d in college football last season is not going to help.
under saban,bama will play strong defense, because his teams always do......& since clemson will be replacing four starters on the off line....i don't think clemson will be as effective on off. in the early part of the year, as they will be later on.
also last year clemson's off. was not as productive against a good def. as they were against the weaker defensive teams. they scored 24 vs. fsu, 3 against gt, 23 vs vt, 17 against bc, and 23 vs. so. car.....& except for 1 all of those games went under the total......& imo this game will also go under because i think bama will play conservative.
some trends....
under is 13-6 in bama's last 19 non conference games.
also under is 12-5 in clemson's last 17 non conference gamesl.
good luck
adding...
under 49(120) bama/ clemson...
after the bama offense struggled last season, saban brought in another new offensive coodinator (it seems like he has brought a new one in every year).......& learning a new offense will come with growing pains and probably will not click right away.....i think this is especially going to be true for this game as bama faces what is going to be a pretty good clemson def......with 3/4 of their def line intact, and the entire defensive backfield.bama had serious problems passing the ball with any consistancy last year and going up against what was the 9th best d in college football last season is not going to help.
under saban,bama will play strong defense, because his teams always do......& since clemson will be replacing four starters on the off line....i don't think clemson will be as effective on off. in the early part of the year, as they will be later on.
also last year clemson's off. was not as productive against a good def. as they were against the weaker defensive teams. they scored 24 vs. fsu, 3 against gt, 23 vs vt, 17 against bc, and 23 vs. so. car.....& except for 1 all of those games went under the total......& imo this game will also go under because i think bama will play conservative.
some trends....
under is 13-6 in bama's last 19 non conference games.
also under is 12-5 in clemson's last 17 non conference gamesl.
good luck
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Like the card,I'm a big fan of the under especially early in the season and have heard the Bruins offense has looked really bad.
GL this year
GL this year
Morning Al, nice to see you here. Hope you & the Mrs. are doing fine. I'm now single and LOVING it !
Have a great season my friend, Dave
Have a great season my friend, Dave
thanks guys....
yeah spang..i heard that also about the ucla offense...& i agree with you about the unders....hopefully it does well this weekend...
hooks....sorry to read about the breakup.....hopefully it works out alright for you & cheryl....
yeah spang..i heard that also about the ucla offense...& i agree with you about the unders....hopefully it does well this weekend...
hooks....sorry to read about the breakup.....hopefully it works out alright for you & cheryl....
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here is some info that i got from another forum...hopefully some of you find it useful....
In the sports handicapping world, some of the biggest betting tips we can give the novice bettors is the famous ?look ahead? game and there?s a few teams who might not be 100% totally focused on their opponents in Week 1 and this creates great line value on the underdogs. First, Miami-Ohio has the mighty Michigan Wolverines on deck and could be thinking of next week?s tilt with the Wolverines at the Big House in Ann Arbor, MI. Therefore, consider Vanderbilt at +4.0 this Thursday vs. the Red Hawks.
Another game you might want to consider this weekend is Virginia +19.5 vs. USC. Let?s face it, the Trojans have been a power house with Pete Carroll calling the shots and with a big nationally televised game next week vs. Ohio State, Virginia at +19.5 is great value.
Here are some College Football tidbits for your consideration in Week 1.
(Thursday?s Games)
Texas El Paso vs. Buffalo: When Texas El Paso team played as Road team as an Underdog - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Playing on grass surface; The OVER is 11-4-0 for UTEP in this spot.
Vanderbilt vs. Miami Ohio: When Vanderbilt team Played as road team as a Underdog During Week 1 to 4; The Commodores are 8-4-0 ATS and 3-9 SU in this position since ?96.
North Carolina State vs. South Carolina: When South Carolina team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - During Week 1 to 4; The Gamecocks are 11-0 SU in this role.
Wake Forest vs. Baylor: When Baylor team played as a 10.0 or more Underdog - Last 3 years; The Bears are 3-11-0 ATS in this situation L3Y.
Oregon State vs. Stanford: When Oregon State team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Last 4 years; The Beavers are 11-5-1 ATS in this role.
Troy vs. Middle Tennessee State: When Troy team played as a Road team - During Week 1 to 4 - Last 3 years; The Trojans are 1-7 SU in this spot L3Y.
(Friday?s Games)
Temple vs. Army: When Temple team played as a Road team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - During Week 1 to 4; The OVER is 10-5-1 for the Owls in this role.
Southern Methodist vs. Rice: When Rice team played as a Home team - Last 3 years; The OVER is 14-2-0 for the Rice Owls in this role L3Y.
(Weekend Games)
When Rutgers team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - During the month of September;
ATS Record: 5-4-1 SU Record: 7-3-0 O/U/P Record: 2-8-0
When UCLA team played as a Home team - During the month of September - During Week 1 to 4;
ATS Record:12-5-0 SU Record:15-2-0 O/U/P Record:7-10-0
When UCLA team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - Vs Non Conference Opponent;
ATS Record:11-5-0 SU Record:14-2-0 O/U/P Record:6-10-0
When UCLA team played as a Home team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - During the month of September;
ATS Record:12-6-1 SU Record:16-3-0 O/U/P Record:7-12-0
When Washington State team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - Vs Non Conference Opponent;
ATS Record:3-8-0 SU Record:9-2-0 O/U/P Record:4-4-0
When Wyoming team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on grass surface;
ATS Record:6-4-0 SU Record:9-1-0 O/U/P Record:5-5-0
When Wisconsin team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - Last 5 years;
ATS Record:9-10-0 SU Record:17-2-0 O/U/P Record:9-10-0
When Wisconsin team played as a -10.0 or more home Favorite - During Week 1 to 4;
ATS Record:7-9-0 SU Record:15-1-0 O/U/P Record:5-11-0
When Wisconsin team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - Vs Non Conference Opponent;
ATS Record:9-12-0 SU Record:19-2-0 O/U/P Record:8-13-0
good luck
In the sports handicapping world, some of the biggest betting tips we can give the novice bettors is the famous ?look ahead? game and there?s a few teams who might not be 100% totally focused on their opponents in Week 1 and this creates great line value on the underdogs. First, Miami-Ohio has the mighty Michigan Wolverines on deck and could be thinking of next week?s tilt with the Wolverines at the Big House in Ann Arbor, MI. Therefore, consider Vanderbilt at +4.0 this Thursday vs. the Red Hawks.
Another game you might want to consider this weekend is Virginia +19.5 vs. USC. Let?s face it, the Trojans have been a power house with Pete Carroll calling the shots and with a big nationally televised game next week vs. Ohio State, Virginia at +19.5 is great value.
Here are some College Football tidbits for your consideration in Week 1.
(Thursday?s Games)
Texas El Paso vs. Buffalo: When Texas El Paso team played as Road team as an Underdog - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Playing on grass surface; The OVER is 11-4-0 for UTEP in this spot.
Vanderbilt vs. Miami Ohio: When Vanderbilt team Played as road team as a Underdog During Week 1 to 4; The Commodores are 8-4-0 ATS and 3-9 SU in this position since ?96.
North Carolina State vs. South Carolina: When South Carolina team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - During Week 1 to 4; The Gamecocks are 11-0 SU in this role.
Wake Forest vs. Baylor: When Baylor team played as a 10.0 or more Underdog - Last 3 years; The Bears are 3-11-0 ATS in this situation L3Y.
Oregon State vs. Stanford: When Oregon State team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Last 4 years; The Beavers are 11-5-1 ATS in this role.
Troy vs. Middle Tennessee State: When Troy team played as a Road team - During Week 1 to 4 - Last 3 years; The Trojans are 1-7 SU in this spot L3Y.
(Friday?s Games)
Temple vs. Army: When Temple team played as a Road team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - During Week 1 to 4; The OVER is 10-5-1 for the Owls in this role.
Southern Methodist vs. Rice: When Rice team played as a Home team - Last 3 years; The OVER is 14-2-0 for the Rice Owls in this role L3Y.
(Weekend Games)
When Rutgers team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - During the month of September;
ATS Record: 5-4-1 SU Record: 7-3-0 O/U/P Record: 2-8-0
When UCLA team played as a Home team - During the month of September - During Week 1 to 4;
ATS Record:12-5-0 SU Record:15-2-0 O/U/P Record:7-10-0
When UCLA team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - Vs Non Conference Opponent;
ATS Record:11-5-0 SU Record:14-2-0 O/U/P Record:6-10-0
When UCLA team played as a Home team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - During the month of September;
ATS Record:12-6-1 SU Record:16-3-0 O/U/P Record:7-12-0
When Washington State team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - Vs Non Conference Opponent;
ATS Record:3-8-0 SU Record:9-2-0 O/U/P Record:4-4-0
When Wyoming team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on grass surface;
ATS Record:6-4-0 SU Record:9-1-0 O/U/P Record:5-5-0
When Wisconsin team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - Last 5 years;
ATS Record:9-10-0 SU Record:17-2-0 O/U/P Record:9-10-0
When Wisconsin team played as a -10.0 or more home Favorite - During Week 1 to 4;
ATS Record:7-9-0 SU Record:15-1-0 O/U/P Record:5-11-0
When Wisconsin team played as a Home team - During Week 1 to 4 - Vs Non Conference Opponent;
ATS Record:9-12-0 SU Record:19-2-0 O/U/P Record:8-13-0
good luck
here is something that i got from another forum....i don't know if it is true...
Teams with first year head coaches in a lined season opener (15-29 ATS since 2003):
The following are first year coaches...
Baylor (Art Briles)
Colorado State (Steve Fairchild)
Hawaii (Greg McMackin)
Michigan (Rich Rodriguez)
Mississippi (Houston Nutt)
Nebraska (Bo Pelini)
Northern Illinois (Jerry Kill)
SMU (June Jones)
Southern Miss (Larry Fedora)
Texas A&M (Mike Sherman)
UCLA (Rick Neuheisel)
Washington State (Paul Wulff)
Teams with first year head coaches in a lined season opener (15-29 ATS since 2003):
The following are first year coaches...
Baylor (Art Briles)
Colorado State (Steve Fairchild)
Hawaii (Greg McMackin)
Michigan (Rich Rodriguez)
Mississippi (Houston Nutt)
Nebraska (Bo Pelini)
Northern Illinois (Jerry Kill)
SMU (June Jones)
Southern Miss (Larry Fedora)
Texas A&M (Mike Sherman)
UCLA (Rick Neuheisel)
Washington State (Paul Wulff)
Hello, and GL it's good to see Ya. I hope we remember how to do this stuff. Every year seems to take a few days to get the feal back.
AR like your totals the 1st games yo listed have dropped so you got a good line--I like alot of unders this week-like the Wyo under the best--the other 2 I have right at the number--GL
Hey,
Thought I could bump up your thread count...since you seem to be falling off in that department. :mj07:
As always, good to see you back in the place where everyone knows your name.
GL this year, Al. :SIB
Thought I could bump up your thread count...since you seem to be falling off in that department. :mj07:
As always, good to see you back in the place where everyone knows your name.
GL this year, Al. :SIB
Al,
For the sake of the forum, I'm glad to see you posting.
My football handicapping days are over. This is the first year I will not be keeping records and to be honest, I'm glad it came to a close.
For many years, it was at fever pitch. It was rewarding, but very tedious and time consuming. I saw what I wanted to see and did what I wanted to do. I'm both satisfied and relieved knowing I won't be doing it anymore.
I just want to wish you the very best in the upcoming season and since I still have money left in a few accounts, I'm sure I'll be tailing your plays on occasion.
For the sake of the forum, I'm glad to see you posting.
My football handicapping days are over. This is the first year I will not be keeping records and to be honest, I'm glad it came to a close.
For many years, it was at fever pitch. It was rewarding, but very tedious and time consuming. I saw what I wanted to see and did what I wanted to do. I'm both satisfied and relieved knowing I won't be doing it anymore.
I just want to wish you the very best in the upcoming season and since I still have money left in a few accounts, I'm sure I'll be tailing your plays on occasion.
Say it ain't so!!! Now, I am truly devastated. Buddy, you were like a mentor to me. Hope to see you keep posting a few of your gems. :SIB
