college plays for 9/20-9/22....

A

AR182

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not going to have much time in the next few months to devote as much time to capping football as i would like...business comes first.

i wanted to post these games that i played so far....if & when i have time i will do more extensive write-ups writeups on the games...

san jose st +4(120)...

a site that i use has sjs as a 9 point facvorite in their power ratings...so i'll take the 4...

mich.+4(130)...

i think mich's problems on defense has to do with teams that spread the ball around, not teams that have conventional offenses...i think mich. will hang in with psu & this game will be decided by a field goal either way....& that's the reason i bought the points up to 4...

toledo+4....

this is a sandwich game for iowa st.....they just beat arch-rival iowa as a double digit dog & play nebraska next game..& in between they have to travel to lowly toledo who has been getting stomped by eveybody...don't think iowa st"s offense matches up to the teams that routed toledo (purdue, c. mich & kansas)...so i'll take the points with the home team who usually saves their best games for when they play home...

akron+4....

power ratings have akron has a 2 point favorite....so again i'll take the home team & the points.

n.d+14(115)....

the power ratings have n.d as a 5 point favorite...& again i'll take the double digit points with the home team...let's see if weiss can live up to his billing as offensive genius....

so. carolina+17(120)...

no question that lsu has been playing great football but they haven't been exposed yet to teams that have the capabilities of taking advantage of their rookie safeties....think spurrier can..so i'll grab the points....

good luck..
 
A

AR182

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adding...

byu-9...

byu is coming home off a game where they were a favorite road & lost....now they are playing af who won last week as a dog on national tv...think byu takes this game by double digits...power ratings has byu as a 14 point favorite....

tcu-19.....

tcu is another team that lost last week as a favorite & now play a weak defensive smu team....power ratings has tcu as a 30 point favorite...

good luck...
 
Cie

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LSU will almost definitely be w/o Early Doucet. If he plays, he will not be near 100%. Combined receptions coming into the season for the rest of the WRs can be counted on 1 hand. Also, Flynn is not 100%.

GL this week.
 
Irish

Irish

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Good luck on the business side of things....

Cheers
Irish
 
autt_4

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GL this week.

All over the N. D. play. Why Mich. Penn State is the better team right.:shrug:
 
A

AR182

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autt_4 said:
GL this week.

All over the N. D. play. Why Mich. Penn State is the better team right.:shrug:
Click to expand...

i'm playing this because from what i have read there is a good chance for henne to play saturday...& psu is a grind it out team & i think mich. will be able to hang with...however is henne doesn't play i may buy psu & try for a middle..
 
A

AR182

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adding...

ohio st-21(120)....

i got this line early but forgot to post it...i still like osu up to 24....

just think osu is going to start kicking it into over drive to move up in the rankings....& they seem to not have forgotten nw upsetting them a few years ago because they have beaten nw by 44 & 41 points since that upset...also osu is 11-4 ats as ahome favorite of 7+ pts. & are 10-1 ats in conference home games...

u 41(120) gt/virginia....

gt is doing it with their running game & defense...they are #108 in the nation in passing offense & #14 in rushing offense..& they allow 14 points per game....virginia has the 10th worst offense in the country & is 36th in the country in scoring defense...also neither team has gone over the total in any of their games this year....

georgia +4(120).....

georgia was off last week while last week revenge minded bama won dramatically against arkansas.since i think these teams are pretty much evenly matched, i think this game will be decided one way or another by a field goal....

minn+14.....

is this line an over reaction to minny losing to fla atlantic last week ?...but they did turn the ball over 7 times...& they are still averging 37 ppg this year.don't think purdue has the defense to be laying these many points on the road in conference play....

indy+4(130)....

again taking the home dog who should be able to hang with the favorite.....

good luck...
 
Last edited:
Mully

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Good luck this week Ar..... With you on a few of these... :yup
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate it....

adding...

u45 iowa/wisc.....

this will be the first offense that wisconsin faces this year that doesn't run the spread offense & i think because of that wisc. will show that they have a good defense....iowa is also playing very good defense this year so i think this will be a field position game.....

some trends....

iowa is 6-0 under in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.......the average score was iowa 19.7, opponent 16.8.....

iowa is 8-1 under in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons....the average score was iowa 18.8, opponent 15.0......

wisconsin is 23-7 under vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992...the average score was wisky 18.2, opponent 18.9.....

wisky is 25-8 under vs. good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.....the average score was wisky 19.3, opponent 18.8......

system....

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (wisky) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (<=16 ppg), in conference games.......

ats record is 30-6 over the last 5 seasons.....83%

the average total posted in these games was...46.1..

the average score in these games was...team 18.8,opponent 19.8...total points scored = 38.6....

the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21.....58.3% of all games......

The situation's record this season is....1-0....

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....14-1....


good luck.
 
E

el JB

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Juu3 said:
AR,

SanJoseSt. has always been a good team to me, and bettors, but I see where you have them winning by 9 and just soon after that I saw the line drop to 3...any thoughts cause I may hammer this?!
Click to expand...

check post about Yonus Davies not playing for SJS...may have some effect on line but still good value
 
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