college plays & info for 8/30-9/3....

[AR182]

this is the first chance i have gotten to post my plays since i have been away from my computer for a week....

unless noted..all plays will be 2*...

under 49 unlv/utah st....

don't know if it's good but utah st, is returning 11 starters from last year's defense,while unlv returns 6 starters...i have the game capped at 41...

a trend that supports this play...

play under - any team against the total (utah st) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter.
the ats record is 174-105 over the last 10 seasons....62.4%

i'll probably have more things/info to post tomorrow (have guests)....

good luck.

 

[Hooks]

Al, from what i'm hearing the Rebels starting QB is not even going to be playing and maybe gone for the year!... They're in big trouble this season.

 

[AR182]

Al, from what i'm hearing the Rebels starting QB is not even going to be playing and maybe gone for the year!... They're in big trouble this season.

hooks..

thanks for the info...

it's always good to hear that a qb may not play when you have an under...:00hour

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck this year Al.

 

[taoist]

Best of luck this season, Al. May all of the bounces go your way...unless I need them to go mine.

 

[AR182]

finally !!...guests left...now football 24/7...:00hour

here is a list of returning starters from last year's teams that i got from another forum.....

returning starters and QB's

Air force O= 4, D= 6 (10 w/ Qb) - Meaning Air Force has 4 returning starters on offense, 6 returning starters on defense, total of 10 returning starters, with returning starting Qb.

Air Force O= 4, D= 6 (10 w/ Qb)
Ala O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ Qb)
Arz O= 8, D= 10 (18 w/ Qb)
Arz St O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Akron O= 4, D= 8 (12 w/ no Qb)
Army O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ no Qb)
Ark O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ Qb)
Ark St O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)
Auburn O= 4, D= 7 (11 w/ Qb)

Ball St O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)
Baylor O= 4, D= 6 (10 w/ no Qb)
BC O= 7, D= 9 (16 w/ Qb)
Boise St O= 5, D= 6 (11 w/ no Qb)
Bowl Grn O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)
Buff O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ Qb)
Byu O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ no Qb)

Cal O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)
Cent Mich O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Cent Flor O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ no Qb)
Cincy O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ no Qb)
Clem O= 3, D= 7 (10 w/ no Qb) --- ONLY 3 starters returning on Offense (WR, LT, TB)
Colo O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ no Qb)
Colo St O= 8, D= 9 (17 w/ Qb)
UConn O= 8, D= 6 (14 w/ no Qb)

Duke O= 11, D= 5 (16 w/ Qb) --- 11 starters returning on Offense

E Caro O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)
E Mich O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)

Flor Atl O= 7, D= 10 (17 w/ no Qb)
Flor Int O=8, D=6 (14 w/ no Qb)
Flor O= 5, D= 1 (6 w/ no Qb) --- ONLY 1 starter returning on Defense (SS)
Flor St O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ Qb)
Frsno St O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)

Geo O= 7, D= 3 (10 w/ Qb) --- ONLY 3 starters returning on Defense (DT, CB, SS)
Geo Tech O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ no Qb)

Hawaii O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)
Houst O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)

Idaho O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)
ILL O= 6, D= 9 (15 w/ Qb)
Indy O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ Qb)
Iowa O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ no Qb)
Iowa St O= 4, D= 5 (9 w/ Qb)

Kansas O= 5, D= 6 (11 w/ no Qb)
Kan St O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)
Kent St O= 8, D= 9 (17 w/ Qb)
Kentucky O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ Qb)

La Tech O= 6, D= 10 (16 w/ Qb)
La Monroe O= 10, D= 8 (18 w/ Qb)
La Laf O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)
Louisv O= 7, D= 4 (11 w/ Qb)
Lsu O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ no Qb)

Marshall O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Maryland O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ no Qb)
Memph O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Mia O= 9, D= 7 (16 w/ Qb)
Mia Oh O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)
Mich O= 6, D= 4 (10 w/ Qb)
Mich St O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ no Qb)
Mid Tenn O= 5, D= 6 (11 w/ no Qb)
Minny O= 6, D= 9 (15 w/ no Qb)
Miss O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ no Qb)
Miss St O= 9, D= 5 (14 w/ Qb)
Missouri O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ Qb)

Navy O= 8, D= 2 (10 w/ Qb)
Neb O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)
Nev O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)
N Mex O= 8, D= 10 (18 w/ Qb)
N Mex St O= 9, D= 9 (18 w/ Qb)
N Caro O= 5, D= 5 (10 w/ Qb)
N Caro St O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
N ILL O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ no Qb)
N TX O= 4, D= 10 (14 w/ no Qb)
Nwstrn O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)
N Dame O= 4, D= 5 (9 w/ no Qb)

Ohio U O= 5, D= 5 (10 w/ no Qb)
Ohio St O= 5, D= 5 (10 w/ no Qb)
Okla O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ no Qb)
Okla St O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ Qb)
Ore O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Ore St O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ no Qb)

Penn St O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Pitt O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ no Qb)
Purd O= 9, D= 9 (18 w/ Qb)

Rice O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Rutgers O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)

Sdg St O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ no Qb)
San Jose St O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ Qb)
S Caro O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ Qb)
S Flor O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ Qb)
S Miss O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ Qb)
Smu O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)
Stan O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ no Qb)
Syr O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)

Tcu O= 4, D= 9 (13 w/ no Qb)
Temple O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ no Qb)
Tenn O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ Qb)
TX O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
TX A&M O= 8, D= 6 (14 w/ Qb)
TX Tech O= 4, D= 5 (9 w/ Qb)
Toledo O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ Qb)
Troy St O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ Qb)
Tulane O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ no Qb)
Tulsa O= 3, D= 6 (9 w/ Qb) --- ONLY 3 returning starters on Offense (QB, TE, RG)

Uab O= 4, D= 4 (8 w/ no Qb)
Ucf O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ no Qb)
Ucla O= 10, D= 10 (20 w/ no Qb)
Unlv O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ no Qb)
Usc O= 5, D= 10 (15 w/ Qb)
Utep O= 7, D= 3 (10 w/ no Qb)
Ut O= 9, D= 5 (14 w/ no Qb)
Ut St O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ no Qb)

Vandy O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ Qb)
Va O= 8, D= 10 (18 w/ Qb)
Va Tech O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ Qb)

Wake For O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Wash O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ no Qb)
Wash St O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)
W Mich O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ no Qb)
W Va O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ Qb)
Wisc O= 9, D= 7 (16 w/ no Qb)
Wyo O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)

 

[gjn23]

The one that stood out to me:

Ucla O= 10, D= 10 (20 w/ no Qb)

20, wow. not sure they can get much worst at the qb position anyway and if olsen can get his act together that position might actually be an upgrade.

 

[DeadPrez]

Always appreciate your info and analysis

Best of luck this year AR...

 

[AR182]

thanks taoist & blackman...appreciate it...& looking forward to reading your opinions for the ncaa.

head coaching changes for the upcoming season...(please let me know if there are mistakes)....

air force
arizona st.
bama
uab
army
b.c.
c. mich.
cin.
fla. int'l.
idaho
iowa st.
la tech
louisville
miami fl.
mich. st.
minn.
n.car.
nc st.
n. texas
rice
stanford
tulane
tulsa

checking to see how the coaching changes have affected their teams...

there have been 78 head coaching changes from 2001-2006 & here is what happened...

overall record for those years is 393-456-19 ats....46%..so simply playing against teams with a new head coach you would have an ats record of.... 54%.

if you played against these teams only when they were on the road, your ats record would have been...223-167-9....57%

if you played against these teams when they were road favorites, your record would be....47-33-5 ats....58%

if you played against these teams when they were road dogs,your record would be....176-134-4 ats...58.6%

 

[Cie]

Thx for the info, Al.

La Monroe O= 10, D= 8 (18 w/ Qb)
Tulsa O= 3, D= 6 (9 w/ Qb) --- ONLY 3 returning starters on Offense (QB, TE, RG)

if you played against these teams when they were road favorites, your record would be....47-33-5 ats....58%

Tough matchup in week 1 for an inexperienced Tulsa team breaking in a new offensive scheme on the road.

 

[gardenweasel]

Thx for the info, Al.



Tough matchup in week 1 for an inexperienced Tulsa team breaking in a new offensive scheme on the road.

i was looking at this one myself....getting 3.5 or 4 at home....even though i don`t have a ton of confidence in that conference,i`ll prolly take the points.......

ar....break a leg......heres hoping you have another big college foots` season....

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it..

adding...

u 53(120)utah/oregon st....

see osu trying to control the ball with a good runner, an experienced offensive line & a new qb. not playing them because of utah's backdoor potential.

a supporting trend....

play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (utah) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced qb returning as starter.

the ats record is 32-8 over the last 5 seasons....80%

here's something interesting that i found...

the average total posted in these games was: 52.4

the average score in these games was: team 22.9,opponent 18.6 (Total points scored = 41.5)

the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28.....70% of all games.

good luck

 

[JJ Reddick]

nice info AR!

 

[AR182]

adding...

monroe+4(120)....

in addition to what i had already posted about teams (tulsa) breaking in new coaches,tulsa has only 1/2 of last year's starters returning. i also like this spot for monroe because they have all 11 starters on offense returning, the strength of monroe's defense is in their 2ndary which matches up well vs. tulsa's passing offense, & the game will be on national tv at monroe...

here is a trend supporting this play...

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (monroe) -in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning, in the first month of the season.....

the ats record is....32-8 since 1992.....80%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...3-1...

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....9-1....

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is....16-4....

good luck...

 

[AR182]

teams that may be looking ahead....

teams that may be looking ahead....

miami....play oklahoma in week #2

virginia tech....play lsu in week #2

nc state.....new head coach o'brien plays former school boston college in week #2

boston college...see above

penn st...play notre dame in week #2

oklahoma....play miami in week #2

tcu....play texas in week #2

oregon...play michigan in week #2

lsu...play v.t. in week #2

 

[Kramer]

Keep er coming AR :toast:

 

[freelancc]

hope you have a another great season..:toast:

 

[Cie]

miami....play oklahoma in week #2

virginia tech....play lsu in week #2

nc state.....new head coach o'brien plays former school boston college in week #2

boston college...see above

penn st...play notre dame in week #2

oklahoma....play miami in week #2

tcu....play texas in week #2

oregon...play michigan in week #2

lsu...play v.t. in week #2

This is one I included in my potential look-ahead list:

UNLV.... play #7 Wisky in week #2

 

[AR182]

This is one I included in my potential look-ahead list:

UNLV.... play #7 Wisky in week #2

cie...

you may be right but i don't consider wisc. a look ahead game for unlv because the week after wisc. unlv plays hawaii,which is a conference game..but who knows...:shrug: ....:142smilie

 

[bjfinste]

miami....play oklahoma in week #2

virginia tech....play lsu in week #2

nc state.....new head coach o'brien plays former school boston college in week #2

boston college...see above

penn st...play notre dame in week #2

oklahoma....play miami in week #2

tcu....play texas in week #2

oregon...play michigan in week #2

lsu...play v.t. in week #2

This is merely my humble opinion, but I think the "look-ahead factor" means much less in week 1 than in other weeks. These teams have been beating up on each other in practice -- most if not all in ridiculous heat -- for the past month. They just want to get out there and smack someone else up.