Eagles Favored??

JEFF

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This line confuses me. Monday night, in front of a sellout at FedEx. Philly lost to Tenn,, while the Skins beat ARIZONA fairly easily.

What the hell is up with this line?

I thought the Skins would be a big public team this year, but everyone dropped the line vs. ARZ, and now this. Someone tell me why I shouldnt unload on WASH + 1.5.:confused:
 

JEFF

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Uhh I'm not sure you're catching my drift here Hellah ...
 

hellah10

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ahh now that I read the whole thing i see your on the Skins...

Well who knows...I like Philly

Good luck either way
 

Ndfan

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line also jumped out at me and liked philly big. skins beat a fair arizona that they should have won and tenn is one of the top teams that phil should have beat. so the line seems fair as phil was excellent on the road last year posting a su record of 5-2 and 6-1 ats. They are 7-2 ats vs. the skins away in the last 9.
and spurrier still hasn't played anyone yet and still has to prove his team is a contender. So I'm going with in my opinion the better team phil only laying 1.5 on the road where they have proven they can play
 
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wondo

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I am all over Philly.

Washington's game against Arizona was poorly played on Washington's half. Arizona has one offensive weapon in Boston, and Washington's game plan on defense still gave up a number of points and failed in many instances on key downs and plays. I hate to think of what will happen to them against a stronger team.

Fred Smoot, despite the apparent divine intervention he was receiving on his behalf for two plays (as evidenced by his joyous fall to his knees and praying to the sky) was basically bitchslapped by the Arizona receivers and was getting crossed up on damn near every move that the receivers made off the line of scrimmage. He is undersized and his mouth might be the best and only part of his game.

Washington additionally is weakened when they send out a nickel or dime package, as Darrell Green, although the anti-Smoot and someone with a tremendous amound of character and class, is not the defender that he used to be. He made one play when he was in zone coverage and didn't have very far to go, but overall he lacked the range in a couple zone defensive sets.

Offensively, Spurriers team did start to open the field a little bit in the second half, but again, it's against Arizona. Spurrier has such a hesistancy to run hard up the middle, I think that if he continues this, he will fall behind quickly against a better team and not be able to come back. Also, against a better team, the defense will be relatively rested and healthy come the 4th quarter if the Skins are not pounding it to them at some point in the game.

Special Teams on Washington is another major concern, and one that will be surely addressed early this week (i.e. Conway gone and somebody new in) But still, that means that the kicker was the second option and not as good as the first could have been. It's an embarassment that on a team of 50+ people, they couldn't find one that can kick the ball past the 35 yard line. I've seen high school kickers do that.

Spurrier and the Skins will get their first test of an above average team next week, and I don't think they'll be up for the challenge.

I didn't watch the Philly game, but maybe someone could comment on how they played and how they might repeat or adjust to this upcoming week.
 

cameroncrazie

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I watched the Birds on Sunday and am a huge Eagles fan so I figured I would chime in here. Eagles looked like 2 different teams on Sunday - great in the 1st half and poor in the 2nd half. The play calling got too conservative in the 2nd half and the Titans capitalized. McNabb was pressured heavily in the 2nd half and threw 2 INT's. So this Jekyll/Hyde routine does give me some pause over next week's game. A big thing to watch for is whether Vincent returns for the Eagles. Al Harris replaced him this week and was terrible. Mason abused him all over the field. Not a good recipe against Spurrier's Fun-N-Gun. If Vincent comes back healthy I look for the Birds to win by 7-10. If not, then I will be holding my breath.
 

JEFF

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I still like the SKins here getting 1.5 at home on MNF, w/ Spurrier looking to prove himself on the national stage.

Philly quite simply is not as good as last year, but people will continue to bet on them as the same team because of their rep, especially on the road.

Gone are several key cogs: Corell Buckhalter, Jeremiah Trotter,
John Welbourn, Hollis Thomas. The D-Line is also banged up, and Troy Vincent is hurting. That's a lot of guys who were key last year. This is not the same team.
 

pointspred fred

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1.5 is such a bizzare number and I don't get it either. Whenever I see a line like this, i ALWAYS bet on the trap side. Think about it logically. Guys like Danny Sheridan and Roxy don't just throw these numbers out there because they are predicting a final outcome. First and foremost those numbers are supposed to divide the public in half. Yet you just watch the huge dollars that will be bet on philly this week. This game HAS to be a trap doesn't it?

I'm taking the Redskins, but waiting till the line hits 3 then im gonna buy the hook to 3.5.
 

acehistr8

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Agreed. Public will be all over this game seeing Phily as the far superior team.

Pinnacle hung 3 on this game, I bought the hook and took Washington. Full writeup will follow, but this Washington team is not as bad as everyone thinks. At home, MNF, against Philly? Washington split this series last year, I look for them to play it close once again.
 

pointspred fred

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Oh and Jeff, thanks for talking me into taking the points in my teaser last night. +15 turned out to be where the value was, you were right! Again, thanks!

Todd
 
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wondo

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A trap?

The linesmakers don't know who's going to win any better than anyone else. I don't buy into a trap theory.

I see Philadelphia beating the piss out of a weak Redskin team. I don't care how many other 'public' or squares are on the game. I'm a public bettor, a square, whatever you want to call it. So why worry who else is on it?

What if the line was -6? Is it still a trap? I'm still taking Philly because they're going to win, in my best estimation.
 

pt1gard

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Philly

Philly

Im with ya guys who like Eagles ... lets face it, playing at Adelphi and nearly beating a good team is a lil more impressive than trailing much of game at home vs semi-decent Zona tam ...

Philly cant afford to start 0-2, they are strong rd. team

spurrier will see true defense like he did vs Pitt and Pats in preseason, and his O went nowhere vs their #1 units

Philly 30
Skins 20
 

JEFF

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True, Fred, I was actually on Dallas so I was of absolutely no help last night.


And thanks Hellah for clarifying:rolleyes:
 

acehistr8

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Re: Philly

Re: Philly

pt1gard said:
Im with ya guys who like Eagles ... lets face it, playing at Adelphi and nearly beating a good team is a lil more impressive than trailing much of game at home vs semi-decent Zona tam ]
Washington was up 3-0 until @ 13 minutes left in the 1st Q. Arizona kicked a late 1st half FG to take the lead, which Washingon took back 4 minutes into the 3rd quarter and never relinquished. So while they did not in any way dominate, to say they trailed much of the game is not exactly true.
pt1gard said:

spurrier will see true defense like he did vs Pitt and Pats in preseason, and his O went nowhere vs their #1 units

Phily gave up over 260 yds passing to the Titans and is sure to see more of the same against Washington. So I dont know how GREAT their defense is. And Washingtons offense is far better now than people give them credit for. 320 yards passing and 122 yds rushing. Any day you can put up those balanced numbers in this league, I dont care who you are playing, that is a VERy balanced attack.
 
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GM

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I also don't believe in traps. But I do believe in linesmakers posting lines designed to take in early one-sided money. The sharpies bet early, and the public usually bets very late, often in the hour before kickoff. If the linemaker anticipates public money will pour in on one team, they may shade the line just to get some on the other side to end up (somewhat) balanced.
 

JEFF

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This line did not, however, move off the opening #. In a way, I do believe in traps, but I also agree that to say a game is a trap only scratches the surface of why the hung the # where they did.

That said, I hope people pound Philly all week and hand me a gift w/ WAS +3.:D
 
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