NCAA YTD: 9-4 (+4.15*)
NFL YTD: 7-0 (+9.50*)
Iowa(-14)(-120) over Central Michigan (1*)
- - 3 angles are the prongs of this play: (1) For the last two seasons, it has been extremely disappointing to the point of perplexing to watch the Iowa defense get gassed and unable to make plays in late game and late drive situations. This excerpt, however, talks about something refreshing that has been brewing early this season : ? . . .the Hawkeye defense has recorded just three sacks through three games, but Iowa does rank 23rd nationally in total defense, and (LB James) Morris says the defensive line may be ready for a break through . . . "The line has been excellent," said Morris, who ranks second on the team and fifth in the Big Ten averaging 9.3 tackles per game. "They're doing a great job. Week to week they continue to improve. We know they haven't played their best football yet so I'm excited about what they're going to be able to do this week." . . . Thus far, the defense has shined when the lights have been their brightest. Iowa ranks among the nation's top 30 defenses in red zone efficiency, and over the last two games, the Hawkeyes have forced three turnovers in the red zone, including two fumbles and an interception . . . Iowa has also stood tall late in the game when it's time to get the defense off the field. The Hawkeyes have held the opposition to 5-23 on third and fourth down conversions, and allowed just 10 points in the second half."; (2) On the road in a hostile environment, this Central Michigan squad is not poised to employ a wide open game to stun the Hawkeyes early and often, and I think they will be playing into the current strengths of the significantly better home team; (3) I?ve had a good feel for Iowa all season (a lean against them ATS against N.Ill., but a belief they were going to prevail SU in the 4th quarter when the 3 diehards in the room with me thought they were toast; a strong play on Iowa State, which I thought was the better team at that early stage, and with more motivation under Coach Rhoads; and a confident play against N.Iowa, which only scared me if Iowa was sloppy on defense, and they were not), and with a persistent feel for their fortunes this week, I?ll go to the well again . . . I don?t know yet if this Iowa team might be a little better than I expected, but with two new coordinators on the job, I think they are on an uptick this week rather than just going through the motions, and Ferentz and Vandenberg will carry my cash at home today.
Louisville(-14) over Florida International (1*)
- -
Oregon State(+7')(-115) over UCLA (1*)
- - This definitely shapes up as a scrappy conference battle between emerging teams, and I may be too late for grabbing the line value, but I?m not too late to grab the value of a live dog.
Florida(-23) over Kentucky (1*)
- -
LEANS:
San Jose State(+3)
Army(+7)
Kansas State(+16')
Michigan(+6)
Florida State(-15')
California(+15)
GL