First and Ten

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Iowa(-10) over Illinois State (1*)
- - My read is Iowa has had a good enough off season to be ready to look improved out of the chute, but an opponent that can give resistance if Iowa is on the crappy side.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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What did we learn in the first week?

Ohio State(-14) over Virginia Tech (1.5*)
- - (1) Getting ready for the big stage on Monday night, Urban Meyer and his experienced staff have been pushing the right buttons since August and before, and this is a chance to show it.
(2) Even after last year's championship run, I can't rightly claim I'm well versed in all the individual weapons on the perimeter and in the physical trenches (and all their four star gifts), but I know my eyes will be seeing no shortage of explosive Buckeyes.
(3) And now that championship team visits the house of the only team to inflict a blemish last year? That makes this personal, a whole year's worth of bad film, not just some early game that might not stand out.
(4) Ohio State made some cappers very happy at the end of last year; Urban Meyer at coach was as responsible as any factor for that wise investing. Carrying my cash works again, maybe you can figure out why.

^ ^ ^ ^ Insightful story about my gambling habits . . . So often, there will be one or maybe two games left on the card for the week. I've already peeked ahead to next week's card. With that one or two remaining games I've been looking at all week, I may not have thought I had a strong feeling about them, but it's actually fair to say I'm as "on it" with information, angles and/or opinions of some sort which now have me feeling as strongly as I'm likely to feel about all but maybe a few games next week. Then I decide to pass on the game. I can blame lots of reasons for the too many times it's happened, but I pass on pulling the trigger. That is a mistake in my CV that has cost me winners at a rate which comfortably exceeds 54%.

Been there, done that.


I've been on vacation this weekend, but what else did I maybe learn in the first week that may or may not payoff with some rewards of at least 54%? -

(1) If I had just stumbled upon some capper noting for the benefit of my lazy amateur noggin that Texas A&M would run the ball so much more effectively than ASU, I would have then had the good sense to agree with that assessment and then recognize that this trip to Texas to match up with this SEC program was not a sweet spotlight moment.

(2) Penn State cannot be in a good place six weeks from now. Do you look to ride against them most of the way, or wait until they arrive, or double down on both?

(3) Alabama showed a lot. I hope some people might agree.

(4) Iowa hasn't demonstrated anything, but they showed enough for me to know I won't be leaning toward Iowa State in a revenge spot.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 6-3 (+3.20*)
NFL YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
NFLX YTD: 0-1 (-1.10*)
Top Plays (included above): 1-0 (+1.50*)


Arkansas(-22') over Toledo (1*)
- -

Iowa(-3') over Iowa State (1*)
- - No way do I see this game as a toss-up when I look at the rosters, and in Week No. 2 of the 2015 season I see the intangibles favoring the Hawkeyes as well . . . In this series the SU winner is the ATS winner almost every time.

Michigan(-14)(-120) over Oregon State (1*)
- - No doubt Harbaugh will wear and grind on all in his wake, but for the early ascent I fully expect my wagon will be regularly hitched to this star, and I fully expect I will generally be rewarded rather than gypped along the way . . . The one trepidation for me I saw last week was Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who still looked like a player that never really feels comfortable in finding or creating the flow of the game, and instead still looks way too mechanical and nervous about making a mistake instead of excited about making a play; it was only one game, but I was sort of looking for something much more transformational from his play under a quarterback whisperer . . . While I will of course be keeping a lookout for situations to oppose the new regime, this isn't one of them.

Georgia(-20') over Vanderbilt (1*)
- -

Miami (Ohio)(+31) over Wisconsin (1*)
- -

California(-13) over San Diego State (1*)
- -

Michigan State(-5) over Oregon (1*)
- -

Kentucky(+7) over South Carolina (1*)
- -

Appalachian State(+18') over Clemson (1*)
- -


GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 10-11 (-1.50*)

Iowa(-4) over Pittsburgh (1.5*)
- - Iowa's off season emphasis since last January has been on getting in all ways stronger to finish plays, finish drives, finish games and finish seasons. Last week Iowa definitely took a textbook step toward being a strong team. Now follows an opportunity to stake out Kinnick Stadium as a bad place to visit in 2015.

USC(-9') over Stanford (1*)
- - Stanford has been on quite a run, but this is a spot for a USC statement.

Arkansas(-10) over Texas Tech (1*)
- - Maybe Arkansas has been vastly overrated in intangibles as well as talent.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 14-18 (-5.85*)
NFL YTD: 6-6 (-0.68*)
NFLX: 0-1 (-1.10*)
Top Plays (listed above): 1-1 (-0.15*)


Tennessee(-1)(-115) over Florida (1*)
- - If Tennessee is going to make something of their 2015 season (as I have them doing), it's hard to see them being 2 for 2 in the bitter loss department after this one.

Georgia Tech(-7') over Duke (1*)
- -

LSU/Syracuse(Ov45) (1*)
- -


GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,541
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 17-21 (-6.35*)
NFL YTD: 11-7 (+4.25*)
NFLX: 0-1 (-1.10*)
Top Plays (listed above): 2-1 (+1.35*)

Iowa(+7') over Wisconsin (1.5*)
- - Iowa has done everything right in getting to this spot. No team playing next week has a game or an opponent they want an opportunity to line up against more than Iowa wants this one. Go Hawks!

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Pittsburgh(+4) over Virginia Tech (1*)
- -

Tennessee(-6') over Arkansas (1*)
- -

TCU(-14) over Texas (1*)
- -

Air Force(+5') over Navy (1*)
- -

Mississippi(-6') over Florida (1*)
- -

Notre Dame(+2') over Clemson (1*)
- -

Middle Tennessee State(-2) over Vanderbilt (1*)
- -

Louisville(+3') over North Carolina State (1*)
- -

GL
 

smax

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Feb 1, 2005
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Des Moines
Pittsburgh(+4) over Virginia Tech (1*)
- -

Tennessee(-6') over Arkansas (1*)
- -

TCU(-14) over Texas (1*)
- -

Air Force(+5') over Navy (1*)
- -

Mississippi(-6') over Florida (1*)
- -

Notre Dame(+2') over Clemson (1*)
- -

Middle Tennessee State(-2) over Vanderbilt (1*)
- -

Louisville(+3') over North Carolina State (1*)
- -

GL

Looks pretty solid. Best of luck today.
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,541
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83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 22-25 (-5.25*)
NFL YTD: 14-8 (+6.78*)
NFLX: 0-1 (-1.10*)
Top Plays (listed above): 4-1 (+4.35*)

Iowa(-11) over Illinois (1.5*)
- - Weeks ago . . .
Iowa definitely took a textbook step toward being a strong team. Now follows an opportunity to stake out Kinnick Stadium as a bad place to visit in 2015.

Neither Iowa nor Wisconsin played very close to their very best yesterday, but Iowa still captured their biggest rivalry game win in years and years. Let's go home, there's work to do . . . Overachieving Illinois stole a shocking win from the jaws of defeat, and celebrated doing it against a foe of the likes they rarely beat . . . Very much un-road-tested Illinois is very overvalued in this spot at Kinnick.

GL
 
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redsfann

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Aug 3, 1999
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Somewhere in Corn Country
NCAA YTD: 22-25 (-5.25*)
NFL YTD: 14-8 (+6.78*)
NFLX: 0-1 (-1.10*)
Top Plays (listed above): 4-1 (+4.35*)

Iowa(-11) over Illinois (1.5*)
- - Weeks ago . . .


Neither Iowa nor Wisconsin played very close to their very best yesterday, but Iowa still captured their biggest rivalry game win in years and years. Let's go home, there's work to do . . . Overachieving Illinois stole a shocking win from the jaws of defeat, and celebrated doing it against a foe of the likes they rarely beat . . . Very much un-road-tested Illinois is very overvalued in this spot at Kinnick.

GL

It's also homecoming in Iowa city and they announced ticket sales have passed 65k for the game. Used to be a tough ticket but many have given up on Ferentz and this years home schedule is an absolute joke.
I like Iowa to cover this number, too.
Look for me in the crowd; I'll be the one wearing an Iowa shirt...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,541
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Looks pretty solid. Best of luck today.

Hey, smax. :toast:

Last Saturday was feeling like the best of times when I started off 4-0 with rock solid covers, then a 1-4 complete reversal in the later games would have felt like the worst of times if Notre Dame had not salvaged my one table scrap with a couple of late scores.


Cheers, redsfann! :toast: It's Great to Be a Hawkeye!


GL
 
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