First and Ten

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
NCAA YTD: 2-3 (-1.20*)
NFLX YTD: 2-0 (+2.00*)

Green Bay(-4) over Jacksonville (1 Biscuit)
- - The sum total of what I've been tracking since last January leads me to a September in which I have to believe the Road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau Field. I do have some concerns about today's game, but I have to believe the Packers will have the answers in their lid lifter. The Journey is the Reward.

Tampa Bay(+3)(-135) over Atlanta (1*)
- - I was sort of liking Atlanta under HC Dan Quinn opening their season at home against a division foe, and I am in the camp of expecting Tampa not to achieve any lofty expectations for this season, although I was definitely pro-Jameis when Tampa took him in the draft, and the guy has delivered well to date. But it seems so many cappers and analysts I look at are of the opinion that Tampa is a live dog here and/or Atlanta is fairly garbage, so I'm biting.

Seattle(-10') over Miami (1*)
- - Simply put, I think Miami is not up to the toughest opening spot on this week's card.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Green Bay/Minnesota(Un42) (1 Biscuit)
- - I could have pounced on Un44, but I waited until I was ready to post my thoughts on the game.
- - All 32 teams could have marched into the sauna and high sun of Jacksonville last week, and a good QB and a good game plan would have run all but a few defenses right out of the game. Maybe Minnesota has one of the defenses that would of held up like supermen. Rodgers knew he would be able and effective buying lots of time in the pocket.
- - I think I see a lot of the same things Packers HC McCarthy is seeing when he says the Packers could have a special defense this year. They held up in Jacksonville exactly the way they needed to.
- - The Vikings have an elite defense, and dealing with a couple missing pieces doesn't change that, and they will not be sort of flat tonight . . . Rodgers too often sort of mushes it around to make plays these days instead of flourishing with the crisp and decisive quarterback reads and rifles that are such a weapon in beating any defense on any given day.
- - The winner of this game should have around 23 or 24 points. The loser will not.

Oakland(-4') over Atlanta (1.5*)
- - Sure.

Arizona(-7) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -

Miami(+6) over New England (1*)
- -

Houston(-1) over Kansas City (1*)
- -

Jacksonville(+3) over San Diego (1*)
- -

Carolina(-11') over San Francisco (1*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 5-5 (-1.05*)
NCAA YTD: 14-16 (-4.63*)
NFLX: 2-0 (+2.00*)

Green Bay(-7') over Detroit (1 Biscuit)
Green Bay(-6) over Detroit (0.5 Biscuit)
Green Bay(Ov27') (1.5 Biscuit)
- - I doubt any team has a more shorthanded defense going today, with Matthews, Shields and Burnett out, Pennel suspended, and Guion and Jones doubtful. I don't care, and they don't care. The home opener comes just before the bye, and a divisional slog will not be on display. I also was looking for a prop on a TD by Jordy.

Tampa Bay(-3)(+131) over Los Angeles (1*)
- - Lots of situational factors working against the Rams, good ones for the Buccs home opener, and the weak Rams offense is a better matchup for the big play prone Tampa defense than the physical St. Louis defense is a load for the aggressive Tampa offense.

New York Jets(+3) over Kansas City (1*)
- - Jets are a live dog fighting to avoid a a 1-2 start, getting extra days to focus in the midst of a brutal schedule to start the season.

Miami(-10) over Cleveland (1*)
- - Another spot where I like what I've seen for letting another team carry my cash in their home opener.

Pittsburgh(-4) over Philadelphia (1*)
- -

Looking at taking San Diego, Tennessee and/or Jacksonville, rather than taking Arizona and/or Cincinnnati, then it's New Orleans for sure, and maybe Seattle.

GL
 
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L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 7-11 (-6.81*)
NCAA YTD: 22-21 (-2.13*)
NFLX: 2-0 (+2.00*)

Houston(-3') over Tennessee (1*)
- -

Chicago(+3)(+112) over Detroit (1*)
- -

Dallas(-1)(-113) over San Francisco (1*)
- -

Oakland(+3)(+102) over Baltimore (1*)
- -

New York Jets(+1) over Seattle (1*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Minnesota(-4') over New York Giants (1*)
- - It's feast or famine with Eli and his G-Men in recent years, and I always expect crazy possibilities in the 4th quarter on a fairly big stage, EXCEPT when the opponent is physical and sound.

Philadelphia(-3)(+102) over Detroit (2*)
- - I've seen the last two games played by both these teams from start to finish, and I was spot on about Detroit in both divisional tilts, and definitely wrong about Philadelphia in both instances. So I'll offer these two observations: (1) HC Doug Pederson sure looks to me like an excellent play caller . . .The Pittsburgh defense was going to school the rookie QB, and they didn't have a clue; and (2) The Eagles' defense has been stellar, and I don't think that tank is running low off a bye, nor IMO do they look likely to have been too busy reading their press clippings and lost their hungry edge already with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz paying a visit to Detroit.

New England(-10) over Cleveland (1*)
- - The way I gotta play it.

Cincinnati(Pk) over Dallas (1*)
- - This was the third game for next week, no more and no less, that caught my eye with a definite initial lean. Then I saw Raymond had exactly the same three games, no more and no less, on his early card, so I said our minds are thinking alike, that's a play that works for me, but next weekend I'll try to monitor any developments.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
New York Giants(-')(2h) over Minnesota (1*)
- - I definitely think the Giants are playing well enough to make some meaningful plays in the second half, but they have to stay within 14 or it will fizzle out.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 13-14 (-4.21*)
NCAA YTD: 27-27 (-3.78*)
NFLX: 2-0 (+2.00*)

Dallas(+2') over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Way too much Bungles love, I'll hedge for a middle.

Chicago(+4)(-119) over Indianapolis (1*)
- -

Minnesota(-6)(-103) over Houston (1*)
- - The only turnover by Minnesota this year was by the defense. Houston will need to win the turnover battle to stay within 7 in this game.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 16-17 (-5.07*)
NCAA YTD: 34-29 (+1.02*)
NFLX: 2-0 (+2.00*)

Kansas City(-2) over Oakland (1*)
- - I believe HC Andy Reid is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS off a bye, this time it?s off a humiliation against Pittsburgh. Their division rival Raiders are a gaudy 4-1 with a defense that is statistically offensive.

Houston(-3)(-103) over Indianapolis (1*)
- -

Green Bay(-4') over Dallas (1 Biscuit)
- - I?ll continue with an opinion on each Packers games, so far I?ve had 3 pushes, plus a comfortable win on the Un42 in the Minnesota game. The missing CBs remain a big concern, the question whether Rodgers will display some consistency much less of a concern (at least at Lambeau). Whether or not there are better games out there . . . both overall and in this spot, I see Dallas being a bit overvalued and Green Bay definitely being underrated.

Philadelphia(-3)(-103) over Washington (1*)
- -

Cleveland(+7') over Tennessee (1*)
- - IMO last week was about the worst possible spot for Cleveland to threaten earning HC Hue Jackson a first win, but I expect they will show more here.

New York Giants(-3)(-135) over Baltimore Ravens (1*)
- - An IMO improved Giants team comes home off back-to-back prime time road losses against the Vikings and Packers, they are healthier than the back-to-back losing Ravens, and IMO they are far likelier to get healthy in the win column.

GL
 
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