NCAA YTD: 4-3 (+0.70*)
NFL YTD: 1-1 (-0.15*)
ODDS and ENDS:
(1) Some weeks I?m clueless. Some weeks are brutal. Whatever happens this weekend in NCAA football, it won?t have happened because I?m clueless.
(2) I?m liking a lot of favorites (which is not exactly unusual for me), and I?ll add this: According to ESPN.com, underdogs covered 52.5% of college football games last year, the best year for underdogs in the last 12.
Kansas(-4') over Central Michigan (1*)
- - While Kansas certainly has limitations, I?m on board with the direction in which this season is being launched, and they can do their thing paying this visitor that escaped in triple OT.
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article161854333.html
http://www.cmuchippewas.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/090117aaa.html
Indiana(-3)(-130) over Virginia (1*)
- - Indiana showed a lot against OSU, although I saw the type of effort of receivers making catches and the QB making throws that are definitely not repeated every week . . . . However, this week their capable looking defense will not be profoundly disadvantaged by having to get out there and answer time and again against an elite offense because of the break-neck pace of their own offense . . . With a couple extra days since their last game I like the chances of the Hoosiers prevailing because they are the better team right now.
Penn State(-21) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - Penn State is on a 10-0 ATS streak. With no wins over in-state rival Pitt in 19 years, this payback game seems a poor spot to bet on that streak ending.
TEASE Georgia(+11 andOV52) vs. Notre Dame (1*)
- - I think ND has the most on the line, but I don?t think that carries them real far in securing a victory going away against a Georgia squad that looks solid in a lot of areas.
Stanford(+6) over USC (1*)
- - I love seeing what QB Sam Darnold makes look effortless, but I think there is resistance across the board in such a huge game today.
Army(-15') over Buffalo (1*)
- - At least temporarily, last week was confirmation of a new normal. Or not.
Michigan State(-7) over Western Michigan (1*)
- -
Iowa(-2') over Iowa State (1*)
- - Until my seasons of wagering are badly tanking, I'll try like last season to offer my perspective on Iowa and Green Bay games, regardless of how strongly held . . . Maybe I?m clueless about this one . . . Iowa State has an excellent group of wide receivers to try and spread out Iowa, but in their 42-24 revenge beating of Northern Iowa they scored 14 points on two Pick 6's, and after UNI went up 7-0 on their first possession a UNI defender dropped an easy interception in Iowa State territory . . . so although I didn?t see the game, it seems the score is at least a little misleading . . . Iowa?s offense is still a work in progress, and this is the first start for QB Stanley on the road . . . For trends, Iowa has been favored in the last 17 games vs. ISU but is only 8-9 SU in that span, while Iowa is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite since 2013, which is the best record of any FBS team with at least 4 such games during that span . . . I'm more confident than afraid today.
Oregon(-12) over Nebraska (1*)
- -
Utah(-3) over BYU (1*)
- -
Rutgers(-5') over Eastern Michigan (1*)
- - Seems like one of umpteen games this week where the line has not moved in my favor while I've patiently waited until the weekend to assess and pull the trigger, as I almost always do. Brutal?
GL
