First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
(1) I misread that play. I thought it was (-4)(2h), but it was an InPlay wager for the game, so it was really (-7)(2h).
(2) Regardless, with Mahommes looking hobbled I knew I should have stuck with Indy, but I bailed, and diminished what could have been a 7-2-1 day.
GL
San Francisco(-5) over Cleveland (1*)
- - Definitely shapes up as a bigger national moment for the Niners, with the up and down (at best) Browns coming off a massive divisional road game. Also giving Kyle Shanahan an extra week against Freddie Kitchens appeals, and the biggest mismatch on the field is the strength of the Niners defensive front against the OL for Cleveland . . . Can Jimmy Garoppolo stay with Tom Brady as QB of the only undefeated teams?
GL
- - Definitely shapes up as a bigger national moment for the Niners, with the up and down (at best) Browns coming off a massive divisional road game. Also giving Kyle Shanahan an extra week against Freddie Kitchens appeals, and the biggest mismatch on the field is the strength of the Niners defensive front against the OL for Cleveland . . . Can Jimmy Garoppolo stay with Tom Brady as QB of the only undefeated teams?
GL
Dallas(-7) over New York Jets (1*)
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Kansas City(-3)(-135) over Houston (1*)
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Jacksonville(-2') over New Orleans (1*)
- - Nearly unanimous?
Cleveland(Pk) over Seattle (1*)
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Denver(-1') over Tennessee (1*)
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San Francisco(+3)(+102) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
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Philadelphia/Minnesota(Ov45) (1*)
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Atlanta(-3)(+100) over Arizona (1*)
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GL
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Kansas City(-3)(-135) over Houston (1*)
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Jacksonville(-2') over New Orleans (1*)
- - Nearly unanimous?
Cleveland(Pk) over Seattle (1*)
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Denver(-1') over Tennessee (1*)
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San Francisco(+3)(+102) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
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Philadelphia/Minnesota(Ov45) (1*)
- -
Atlanta(-3)(+100) over Arizona (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 29-21 (+5.70*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 53-45 (+3.21*)
- - An 11-4-1 day on Saturday takes me to a good place.
Indianapolis(-1') over Houston (1*)
- - All week long I?ve loved this rested, undervalued, physical and well-coached Indy team off a bye against a division foe off two huge efforts of 50+ emotional points against the Atlanta franchise (where their featured QB grew up as a ball boy and protegee), then a road trip to Kansas City where they came back from down by two touchdowns. In the week to week grind of matchups between good teams in an NFL season, that?s a winning formula way more often than 54% . . . I?m always keen to the World Series mojo that pops up somewhere most Septembers and touches some sports community in a big way, and I sense it?s so thick (and palpable for NFL capping purposes) in Houston this morning that you need to brush it away like flies . . . Sticking with Indy to carry my cash.
New York Giants (-3)(-130) over Arizona (1*)
- - Coming from a team that was heading nowhere with Eli at QB, if I was a Giants fan, I would have to be pleased with what I saw against the Super Bowl champs, and liking their chances against a green Arizona team heading to the East coast again.
Green Bay(-5') over Oakland (1*)
- - Chucky will relish his return to Lambeau, with a team he has going in the right direction . . . Mr. Rodgers and his crew are pretty fierce when protecting his neighborhood.
Los Angeles Rams(-3)(-118) over Atlanta (1*)
- - The Rams are IMO the much better team, well focused in a desperate spot, and their Jared Goff led attack is much more proficient with the McVay offense when not under heavy duress.
Detroit(+3)(-130) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Liking this game more as game time approaches.
Tenessee(-2') over San Diego (1*)
- - Michael Lombardi tweeted last week, ?Bad offensive lines don?t travel and since the Chargers are always on the road their line is exposed every week.? . . Not exactly sure what to make of a QB change for Tennessee this week, but San Diego does not impress me as team on the cusp of asserting themselves.
Arizona/New York Giants (Ov50) (1*)
- - Or not.
Dallas(-3)(+100) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - About 6 to 10 times every year in the NFL or NCAA, my capping or instincts or something has me deciding not just to pass on a team I was liking, but to play the other side, and this is the first or second instance from this season . . . My results in such situations are acceptable or I wouldn?t keep doing it.
Jacksonville(-4) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - I felt like the whole world was with me in getting burned backing Jacksonville last week, but I?m not zig-zagging the other way in this spot.
Seattle(-3)(-103) over Baltimore (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 53-45 (+3.21*)
- - An 11-4-1 day on Saturday takes me to a good place.
Indianapolis(-1') over Houston (1*)
- - All week long I?ve loved this rested, undervalued, physical and well-coached Indy team off a bye against a division foe off two huge efforts of 50+ emotional points against the Atlanta franchise (where their featured QB grew up as a ball boy and protegee), then a road trip to Kansas City where they came back from down by two touchdowns. In the week to week grind of matchups between good teams in an NFL season, that?s a winning formula way more often than 54% . . . I?m always keen to the World Series mojo that pops up somewhere most Septembers and touches some sports community in a big way, and I sense it?s so thick (and palpable for NFL capping purposes) in Houston this morning that you need to brush it away like flies . . . Sticking with Indy to carry my cash.
New York Giants (-3)(-130) over Arizona (1*)
- - Coming from a team that was heading nowhere with Eli at QB, if I was a Giants fan, I would have to be pleased with what I saw against the Super Bowl champs, and liking their chances against a green Arizona team heading to the East coast again.
Green Bay(-5') over Oakland (1*)
- - Chucky will relish his return to Lambeau, with a team he has going in the right direction . . . Mr. Rodgers and his crew are pretty fierce when protecting his neighborhood.
Los Angeles Rams(-3)(-118) over Atlanta (1*)
- - The Rams are IMO the much better team, well focused in a desperate spot, and their Jared Goff led attack is much more proficient with the McVay offense when not under heavy duress.
Detroit(+3)(-130) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Liking this game more as game time approaches.
Tenessee(-2') over San Diego (1*)
- - Michael Lombardi tweeted last week, ?Bad offensive lines don?t travel and since the Chargers are always on the road their line is exposed every week.? . . Not exactly sure what to make of a QB change for Tennessee this week, but San Diego does not impress me as team on the cusp of asserting themselves.
Arizona/New York Giants (Ov50) (1*)
- - Or not.
Dallas(-3)(+100) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - About 6 to 10 times every year in the NFL or NCAA, my capping or instincts or something has me deciding not just to pass on a team I was liking, but to play the other side, and this is the first or second instance from this season . . . My results in such situations are acceptable or I wouldn?t keep doing it.
Jacksonville(-4) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - I felt like the whole world was with me in getting burned backing Jacksonville last week, but I?m not zig-zagging the other way in this spot.
Seattle(-3)(-103) over Baltimore (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 35-26 (+5.87*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 62-56 (-0.04*)
Chicago(-3)(-125) over San Diego (1*)
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Indianapolis(-6) over Denver (1*)
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Los Angeles Rams(-12) over Cincinnati (1*)
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Houston(-6) over Oakland (1*)
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Green Bay(-5) over Kansas City (1 Biscuit)
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New Orleans(-12) over Arizona (1*)
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Jacksonville(-7) over New York Jets (1*)
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Detroit(-6') over New York Giants (1*)
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GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 62-56 (-0.04*)
Chicago(-3)(-125) over San Diego (1*)
- -
Indianapolis(-6) over Denver (1*)
- -
Los Angeles Rams(-12) over Cincinnati (1*)
- -
Houston(-6) over Oakland (1*)
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Green Bay(-5) over Kansas City (1 Biscuit)
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New Orleans(-12) over Arizona (1*)
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Jacksonville(-7) over New York Jets (1*)
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Detroit(-6') over New York Giants (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 40-32 (+4.12*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 70-63 (+0.11*)
Oakland(-3)(+102) over Detroit (1.5*)
- - I like the card today.
Carolina(-3)(-130) over Tennessee (1.5*)
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Green Bay(-4) over San Diego (1.5 Biscuits)
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Philadelphia(-4) over Chicago (1.5*)
- - Mettle. Matchups. Mindset. Or not.
Jacksonville(+1) over Houston (1*)
- - I have my reasons why I hate being on the wrong side of any game in London, and I have my reasons for always making a play, and I have my my methods for taking on the task . . . BTW, after today, Green Bay will be the only team that hasn't played a game in London.
Cleveland(-4) over Denver (1*)
- - I'm amazed whenever I hear people that seem to just be waking up in recent weeks to the idea coaching and/or discipline is the reason Cleveland has been their own worst enemy. But that familiar formula has me saying it works to zig instead of zag on how badly the Browns are gonna Brown this week.
Baltimore(+3) over New England (1*)
- -
Kansas City(+4) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Minnesota's strengths are never on display when wearing their grass cleats, and now they face an historically explosive grass field team at an always tough venue.
Buffalo(-10') over Washington (1*)
- - I like this play, but not as much as I thought I would.
Miami(+3) over New York Jets (1*)
- - I only sort of like this play.
GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 70-63 (+0.11*)
Oakland(-3)(+102) over Detroit (1.5*)
- - I like the card today.
Carolina(-3)(-130) over Tennessee (1.5*)
- -
Green Bay(-4) over San Diego (1.5 Biscuits)
- -
Philadelphia(-4) over Chicago (1.5*)
- - Mettle. Matchups. Mindset. Or not.
Jacksonville(+1) over Houston (1*)
- - I have my reasons why I hate being on the wrong side of any game in London, and I have my reasons for always making a play, and I have my my methods for taking on the task . . . BTW, after today, Green Bay will be the only team that hasn't played a game in London.
Cleveland(-4) over Denver (1*)
- - I'm amazed whenever I hear people that seem to just be waking up in recent weeks to the idea coaching and/or discipline is the reason Cleveland has been their own worst enemy. But that familiar formula has me saying it works to zig instead of zag on how badly the Browns are gonna Brown this week.
Baltimore(+3) over New England (1*)
- -
Kansas City(+4) over Minnesota (1*)
- - Minnesota's strengths are never on display when wearing their grass cleats, and now they face an historically explosive grass field team at an always tough venue.
Buffalo(-10') over Washington (1*)
- - I like this play, but not as much as I thought I would.
Miami(+3) over New York Jets (1*)
- - I only sort of like this play.
GL
2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 47-35 (+8.80*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 70-63 (+0.11*)
Los Angeles Chargers(-1)(-116) over Oakland (1*)
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GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 70-63 (+0.11*)
Los Angeles Chargers(-1)(-116) over Oakland (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 47-36 (+7.70*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 81-70 (+3.26*)
Indianapolis(-10') over Miami (1*)
- - No way I like this card as much as last week.
Chicago(-6) over Detroit (1*)
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Los Angeles Rams(-4) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Green Bay(-4') over Carolina (1 Biscuit)
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Dallas(-3)(-120) over Minnesota (1*)
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New Orleans(-13') over Atlanta (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-5') over Arizona (1*)
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Cleveland(-3) over Buffalo (1*)
- - The last six times a team with a W/L record of .250 or less was favored over a team with a W/L record of .750 or better after Week 6, the favorite is 6-0 ATS . . . I doubt if any of those six winners were the Brownies.
GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 81-70 (+3.26*)
Indianapolis(-10') over Miami (1*)
- - No way I like this card as much as last week.
Chicago(-6) over Detroit (1*)
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Los Angeles Rams(-4) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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Green Bay(-4') over Carolina (1 Biscuit)
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Dallas(-3)(-120) over Minnesota (1*)
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New Orleans(-13') over Atlanta (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-5') over Arizona (1*)
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Cleveland(-3) over Buffalo (1*)
- - The last six times a team with a W/L record of .250 or less was favored over a team with a W/L record of .750 or better after Week 6, the favorite is 6-0 ATS . . . I doubt if any of those six winners were the Brownies.
GL
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2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 49-42(+3.00*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 89-77 (+3.56*)
Carolina(-4) over Atlanta (1*)
- -
San Francisco(-10)(-103) over Arizona (1*)
- -
Minnesota(-10)(-103) over Denver (1*)
- -
Miami(+7) over Buffalo (1*)
- -
Oakland(-12') over Cincinnati (1*)
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New York Jets(+2) over Washington (1*)
- -
Los Angeles Rams(-6) over Chicago (1*)
- -
Tampa Bay(+5) over New Orleans (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 89-77 (+3.56*)
Carolina(-4) over Atlanta (1*)
- -
San Francisco(-10)(-103) over Arizona (1*)
- -
Minnesota(-10)(-103) over Denver (1*)
- -
Miami(+7) over Buffalo (1*)
- -
Oakland(-12') over Cincinnati (1*)
- -
New York Jets(+2) over Washington (1*)
- -
Los Angeles Rams(-6) over Chicago (1*)
- -
Tampa Bay(+5) over New Orleans (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 51-47(-0.43*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 89-77 (+13.91*)
Denver(+4) over Buffalo (1*)
- -
Oakland(-3)(-123) over New York Jets (1*)
- -
Atlanta(-3)(-130) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -
Cincinnati(+6') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- -
Chicago(-6) over New York Giants (1*)
- -
Cleveland(-10') over Washington (1*)
- -
GL
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 89-77 (+13.91*)
Denver(+4) over Buffalo (1*)
- -
Oakland(-3)(-123) over New York Jets (1*)
- -
Atlanta(-3)(-130) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -
Cincinnati(+6') over Pittsburgh (1*)
- -
Chicago(-6) over New York Giants (1*)
- -
Cleveland(-10') over Washington (1*)
- -
GL
Dallas (+5) over New England (1*)
- -
Green Bay(+3)(+100) over San Francisco (1*)
- -
Tennessee(-4) over Jacksonville (1*)
- -
GL
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Green Bay(+3)(+100) over San Francisco (1*)
- -
Tennessee(-4) over Jacksonville (1*)
- -
GL
