2019 NFL Regular Season YTD: 80-71 (+2.06*)
2019 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 104-95 (+8.96*)
2019-2020 Bowl Season: 5-2 (+2.80*)
(1) I?m heading out of town to celebrate my family Christmas this weekend. So with limited computer time ahead, I am making and posting my NFL picks more than 24 hours before the games, an absolute rarity that only happens when there are extenuating circumstances such as those just noted.
(2) There are plenty of cappers that for various reasons and methodologies don?t much care for wagering on NFL (or college football) games during the first few weeks of the season, or the last week or two of the season. Neither of those segments of those seasons have ever been off limits to my capping, and in fact I am quite confident that my overall percentage over the last twenty years on NFL and NCAA is as good or better at those times as is my overall strike rate throughout the middle of those seasons.
Green Bay(-12') over Detroit (1 Biscuit)
- - Since Thanksgiving at least, Detroit has invested a lot of their diminishing capital in trying to scrape out any kind of win, without being rewarded, and I don?t see the distractions of the Christmas season being beneficial in any all-in designs of the beaten down Lions to bushwhack the division champions . . . Green Bay, off Monday night, despite three first half turnovers, doesn?t limp into this bye.
Pittsburgh(-2) over Baltimore (1*)
- - The visitor is definitely coming in prepared to knock heads with their biggest rival and unload every bullet at their disposal. Baltimore is already backing off and is going to have further incentives to back off before this game has unfolded very far. The identity of the Steelers offense might require me to hold my nose some, but over the course of 60 minutes, the depleted Ravens will not be carrying my cash.
San Francisco(-180 ML) over Seattle (1*)
- - I almost never cap or play games off moneylines or alternative spreads or teasers, but winning is all this game is about, and I like the value of making my selection in this game accordingly. Simply put, I see San Fran winning, but I hope I?m wrong . . . My two big asks regarding SF are: (1) Is the moment too big for them?, and from what I?ve seen in the arc and back story of their journey to date, my answer to that question is no; and (2) Are they just too beat up in too many places to be the 49ers?, and while they definitely lack depth in terms of the gap between many of their starters and their backups, I expect they will field the bodies to be a tough out in this crucial season ender . . . My two big asks regarding Seattle are: (1) All the talk during the season about the identity of this Seattle team was being stoked by their running game, and now that they really don?t have that identity at all right now, is it showing up further in the opportunities and production by Russell Wilson?, and from what I?ve seen, my answer to that question is yes; and (2) has the Seattle defense looked a little vulnerable and worn down in recent weeks (without Clowney, or for whatever reasons)?, and here my answer is a less emphatic but still a definite yes . . . Seattle goes for the sweep, I?m on the other side.
Indianapolis(-5) over Jacksonville (1*)
- - I don?t see a beaten down team in Indy.
Kansas City(-8') over San Diego (1*)
- - Kansas City is peaking and definitely ambitious, which is a very apparent reality in my assessment, and they are not preparing for this game as though it?s a lost cause to gain anything. That gets my cash in this late December clash, although the goal might become protecting players at some point.
Tennessee(-5') over Houston (1*)
- - If this game was for the division title, I?d be looking hard at playing Tennessee as a live dog. As it stacks up, Tennessee is the only desperate squad here, and the posted price did not have me cowering at -3, but I got appropriately nervous about -5' . . .
I could stop there, maybe should stop there, but I?m keen on doing the capping and getting in on the action on a full slate of NFL games for the last time until September . . .
Oakland(+3)(+100) over Denver (1*)
- - In recent weeks against the Jets and Chiefs, QB Derek Carr only solidified my prior perceptions that he is trash in cold weather games. 35 degrees in Denver can?t really be considered that cold, can it? Hopefully not, because except for that, I might not go so far as to say the wrong team is favored, but I would say I am seeing a live dog, even if the pressure of the moment will mean all the chances to choke in the late stages will be squarely on the shoulders of the visitor.
Miami(+16') over New England (1*)
- - Miami might quit if New England jumps on them early, but that two part formula is not what I?m seeing unfold in this tilt. I will just tip my hat and say I was wrong if in fact this New England squad comes off a fierce divisional game and now lays the wood to a visitor with serious designs in this one.
New York Giants(+3') over Philadelphia (1*)
- - Excellent coaching as much as anything accounts for Philly finding so many band aids and rubber bands to hold things together, and they will have their mettle fully stressed again in another division clash against a Giants team that has some late season swagger.
GL
