Cincinnati(-5')(-115) over Las Vegas (1*)
- - The Raiders showed they were tough and stubborn by weathering a tumultuous season in a new home and going 4-0 in overtime games, and winning their last 4 games of the season by 4 points or less (I believe I read that made them the first team in NFL history to earn a post season birth while closing in that draining fashion). So before the finale against the Chargers, I was surprised to read that back in October, Chargers OLB Joey Bosa had said, ?We knew once we hit (QB Derek Carr) a few times, he really gets shook . . . he was pretty much curling into a ball before we even got back there . . ..once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down." IMO, this Raiders team and their field general have embraced and displayed piss and vinegar aplenty to get them where they are, so I thought that?s pretty big talk coming from a Chargers team that all season showed signs of continuing their franchise tradition of coming up short in big games, and that loudmouth mindset was absolutely the reason why one of my strongest plays last week was on the Raiders as a tough and stubborn live home dog.
Within 30 minutes after the Raiders vs. Chargers game finished, I posted in a Madjacks thread, ?I have never seen a better regular season game that did not involve two true titans.? That game really was that good. And that draining, emotionally and physically. With a full overtime.
Now, after the conclusion of the first 17 game season in NFL history, the tough and stubborn Raiders get handed a short week to haul ass across the country and play in a game that may not be frigid, but is certainly wintry enough to raise some questions. Waiting for them is a Cincinnati team which got some exposure to big time play down the stretch by clinching the division with wins against the Ravens and Chiefs, before taking the valuable opportunity to rest all of their significant players during the final week.
While there are obvious differences between January of 1982 when a near great Chargers team beat the Dolphins in a truly historic and exhausting overtime game, and then had 8 days before playing the Bengals in the coldest wind chill in league history, there are also obvious similarities. I will note that I heard that Carr is 0-5 in his cold weather NFL starts, and this Raiders team with a -65 point scoring differential has a ways to go to be considered a near great team.
This is a playoff game, and in big games you need to look at the players and playmakers all over the field that teams can bring to bear and exploit in any contest of crucial matchups, and look for coaching staffs that very much know what they are doing. Here, if the Raiders ball out with a fresh and energetic pass rush, they can impact the game against a suspect Cinci OL, and apparently young QB Joe Burrow grades out much better against blitzing teams than teams that bring pressure from just the front four. The Raiders have All-Pros that give them an edge in special teams. The Bengals have a rushing attack to balance their passing game, and in prior games this year against teams that have diverse offenses and are loaded at the skill positions, the Raiders lost to the Bengals and the Chiefs by 19, 27 and 39 points (and gave up 33 points to the Cowboys). But the young team from Cincinnati has yet to prove themselves in the postseason, and last time we saw Burrow he was hobbling off the field after the goal line drama against the Chiefs, so there's some fat to chew on.
Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off in Cincinnati with the first NFL postseason game in front of a charged up home crowd in two years. Simply put, for me, being foremost a situational capper, this is a situation that jumps off the fucking page, with nothing to counterbalance it. Not only do I think this is a spot in which the home favorite wins the game going away way more than 54% of the time, but I specifically think this is one of those times.
GL
