First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
San Francisco(-3)(+100) over Philadelphia (1*)
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New York Jets(+2) over Atlanta (1*)
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Detroit(-4) over New Orleans (1*)
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Green Bay(+5) over Kansas City (1*)
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Arizona(+6) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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GL
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New York Jets(+2) over Atlanta (1*)
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Detroit(-4) over New Orleans (1*)
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Green Bay(+5) over Kansas City (1*)
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Arizona(+6) over Pittsburgh (1*)
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GL
Thanks, Jack. 
Could have been a really smooth day if I was thinking a little clearer.
San Francisco was my top play of the day, and the physically and emotionally exhausting overtime game I watched Philadelphia play against Buffalo the week before was as compelling as any of my other ANGLES on the game. But as I was heading out at halftime to catch dinner before my Packers played, I quickly decided I’d assure myself of a winning day, and take a stab at a middle, by making a halftime wager on Philadelphia. I completely overlooked my original reasoning, and should have been confident that the 49ers with all the momentum were likely to pull away in the second half, and if I didn’t just stand pat, I should have been doubling down on the winning side. Certainly one of the mistakes I will remember and most regret making this season.
But I’m not stressed about it at all after the Packers rose to the occasion and beat the World Champions. I really don’t believe there has been a time in the past 20 years that the Packers have done something close to posting back to back wins against an 8-2 team and an 8-3 team. Pretty sweet considering the Packers were being ripped as a really bad team 6 weeks ago.
GL
Could have been a really smooth day if I was thinking a little clearer.
San Francisco was my top play of the day, and the physically and emotionally exhausting overtime game I watched Philadelphia play against Buffalo the week before was as compelling as any of my other ANGLES on the game. But as I was heading out at halftime to catch dinner before my Packers played, I quickly decided I’d assure myself of a winning day, and take a stab at a middle, by making a halftime wager on Philadelphia. I completely overlooked my original reasoning, and should have been confident that the 49ers with all the momentum were likely to pull away in the second half, and if I didn’t just stand pat, I should have been doubling down on the winning side. Certainly one of the mistakes I will remember and most regret making this season.
But I’m not stressed about it at all after the Packers rose to the occasion and beat the World Champions. I really don’t believe there has been a time in the past 20 years that the Packers have done something close to posting back to back wins against an 8-2 team and an 8-3 team. Pretty sweet considering the Packers were being ripped as a really bad team 6 weeks ago.
GL
Cleveland(-1') over Jacksonville (1*)
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Baltimore(-7') over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
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Chicago(+3)(+100) over Detroit (1*)
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Dallas(-3)(-125) over Philadelphia (1*)
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Cincinnati(-3)(+100) over Indianapolis (1*)
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Atlanta(-1') over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Buffalo(+2) over Kansas City (1*)
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GL
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Baltimore(-7') over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
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Chicago(+3)(+100) over Detroit (1*)
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Dallas(-3)(-125) over Philadelphia (1*)
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Cincinnati(-3)(+100) over Indianapolis (1*)
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Atlanta(-1') over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Buffalo(+2) over Kansas City (1*)
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GL
2023 NFL YTD: 56-49 (+1.39*)
- - Fav: 37-30
- - Dog: 19-14
- - Totals: 0-3
- - 2nd H: 0-2
- - NFC North: 18-13
2023 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 119-114 (-5.70*)
2023-2024 Bowls YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
- - Fav: 85-69
- - Dog: 29-39
- - Totals: 2-4
- - 2nd H: 3-2
- - Big10: 34-30
Cincinnati(-3)(-115) over Minnesota (1*)
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Denver(+5) over Detroit (1*)
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GL
- - Fav: 37-30
- - Dog: 19-14
- - Totals: 0-3
- - 2nd H: 0-2
- - NFC North: 18-13
2023 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 119-114 (-5.70*)
2023-2024 Bowls YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
- - Fav: 85-69
- - Dog: 29-39
- - Totals: 2-4
- - 2nd H: 3-2
- - Big10: 34-30
Cincinnati(-3)(-115) over Minnesota (1*)
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Denver(+5) over Detroit (1*)
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GL
Cleveland(-3) over Houston (1*)
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Green Bay(-3)(-130) over Carolina (1 Biscuit)
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New York Jets(-3)(+100) over Washington (1*)
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Minnesota(+3)(-130) over Detroit (1*)
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Denver(-7)(-115) over New England (1*)
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Indianapolis(+3)(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
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Philadelphia(-13') over New York Giants (1*)
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GL
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Green Bay(-3)(-130) over Carolina (1 Biscuit)
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New York Jets(-3)(+100) over Washington (1*)
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Minnesota(+3)(-130) over Detroit (1*)
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Denver(-7)(-115) over New England (1*)
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Indianapolis(+3)(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
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Philadelphia(-13') over New York Giants (1*)
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GL
Baltimore(-3)(-120) over Miami (1*)
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Pittsburgh(+4) over Seattle (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-2') over New Orleans (1*)
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Atlanta(+3)(-130) over Chicago (1*)
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Green Bay(+1) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
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Philadelphia(-12') over Arizona (1*)
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GL
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Pittsburgh(+4) over Seattle (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-2') over New Orleans (1*)
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Atlanta(+3)(-130) over Chicago (1*)
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Green Bay(+1) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
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Philadelphia(-12') over Arizona (1*)
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GL
- - I think you hear many respected cappers saying the last weekend of the NFL season is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for making wagers, even more often than they say much the same thing about the first weekend of the season. But I have never really found the last week or the first week to be that way at all, and I went back to check my recent records for the last weekend, and found the following: 2022 season = 5-2; 2021 season = 7-6; 2020 season = 6-6; 2019 season = 5-4-1; 2018 season = 10-2. 33-20 (62%) over 5 seasons. I doubt my record for any other week is that solid. Maybe this year will be different, but I doubt you will ever catch me saying that the last weekend or the first weekend of the NFL season is a week for running scared for making wagers if you find INFORMATION or ANGLES you like to support your plays.
Buffalo(-3)(+100) over Miami (1*)
- - Buffalo carried my cash against Jets, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Dallas (3-0-1), will carry my cash today, and will likely carry my cash again this season.
Chicago(+3)(-120) over Green Bay (1*)
- - Before Chicago began to impress with their 5-2 run down the stretch, and a chance now to finish 8-5 after an 0-4 start, it has been brutally obvious that entire team, organization and fan base has had their end of season visit to Lambeau circled as their Super Bowl. No playoff incentives needed, but now a chance to ruin the Packers season certainly not going unnoticed . . . Green Bay has been on a one week at a time focus for that same two month stretch, and has come through with some good efforts and some not so good efforts. I do think two of the Packers best efforts at Detroit and Minnesota suggests this version of the Packers is better built for playing fast in domes, more so than in a phone booth in the weather the Bears thrived in last week . . . There are reasons that NFL teams facing a “win and you’re in” scenario in the last week are way, way below 50% ATS in those situations, namely they aren’t anything special in the first place to be in that situation, but they are being overrated when the pressure is stacked the highest . . . No way I’m giving the Bears any points.
San Francisco(-4) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
- - Rams have no depth.
Tampa Bay(-4') over Carolina (1*)
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New England(-2) over New York Jets (1*)
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Detroit(-4) over Minnesota (1*)
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Dallas(-13') over Washington (1*)
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Las Vegas(-3) over Denver (1*)
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New York Giants(+5) over Philadelphia (1*)
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GL
Buffalo(-3)(+100) over Miami (1*)
- - Buffalo carried my cash against Jets, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Dallas (3-0-1), will carry my cash today, and will likely carry my cash again this season.
Chicago(+3)(-120) over Green Bay (1*)
- - Before Chicago began to impress with their 5-2 run down the stretch, and a chance now to finish 8-5 after an 0-4 start, it has been brutally obvious that entire team, organization and fan base has had their end of season visit to Lambeau circled as their Super Bowl. No playoff incentives needed, but now a chance to ruin the Packers season certainly not going unnoticed . . . Green Bay has been on a one week at a time focus for that same two month stretch, and has come through with some good efforts and some not so good efforts. I do think two of the Packers best efforts at Detroit and Minnesota suggests this version of the Packers is better built for playing fast in domes, more so than in a phone booth in the weather the Bears thrived in last week . . . There are reasons that NFL teams facing a “win and you’re in” scenario in the last week are way, way below 50% ATS in those situations, namely they aren’t anything special in the first place to be in that situation, but they are being overrated when the pressure is stacked the highest . . . No way I’m giving the Bears any points.
San Francisco(-4) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
- - Rams have no depth.
Tampa Bay(-4') over Carolina (1*)
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New England(-2) over New York Jets (1*)
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Detroit(-4) over Minnesota (1*)
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Dallas(-13') over Washington (1*)
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Las Vegas(-3) over Denver (1*)
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New York Giants(+5) over Philadelphia (1*)
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GL
2023 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 119-114 (-5.70*)
- - Fav: 85-69
- - Dog: 29-39
- - Totals: 2-4
- - 2nd H: 3-2
- - Big10: 34-30
2023-2024 Bowls YTD: 13-14 (-4.25*)
2023 NFL YTD: 69-63 (-1.91*)
- - Fav: 47-38
- - Dog: 22-20
- - Totals: 0-3
- - 2nd H: 0-2
- - NFC North: 21-18
2023-2024 Playoffs: 0-0 (+0.00*)
Futures:
Iowa(Ov8) Wins (-155) (1*)
Georgia(Un11') Wins (-145) (1*)
Colorado State(Ov5) Wins (-125) (1*)
Marvin Harrison Jr.(18/1) Wins Heisman (1*)
Green Bay(Ov7') Wins (-150) (1*)
Pittsburgh(Ov8') Wins (-155) (1*)
Los Angeles Chargers(Ov9') Wins (-140) (1*)
Dallas(Ov10) Wins (-130) (1*)
Futures = 4-3 (+0.15*)
- - Fav: 85-69
- - Dog: 29-39
- - Totals: 2-4
- - 2nd H: 3-2
- - Big10: 34-30
2023-2024 Bowls YTD: 13-14 (-4.25*)
2023 NFL YTD: 69-63 (-1.91*)
- - Fav: 47-38
- - Dog: 22-20
- - Totals: 0-3
- - 2nd H: 0-2
- - NFC North: 21-18
2023-2024 Playoffs: 0-0 (+0.00*)
Futures:
Iowa(Ov8) Wins (-155) (1*)
Georgia(Un11') Wins (-145) (1*)
Colorado State(Ov5) Wins (-125) (1*)
Marvin Harrison Jr.(18/1) Wins Heisman (1*)
Green Bay(Ov7') Wins (-150) (1*)
Pittsburgh(Ov8') Wins (-155) (1*)
Los Angeles Chargers(Ov9') Wins (-140) (1*)
Dallas(Ov10) Wins (-130) (1*)
Futures = 4-3 (+0.15*)
Cleveland(-2') over Houston (1*)
- - I see Cleveland as the markedly better team, and I don’t think the moment will be too big for these Brownies to play like they are every bit as hungry as any team in the tournament.
GL
- - I see Cleveland as the markedly better team, and I don’t think the moment will be too big for these Brownies to play like they are every bit as hungry as any team in the tournament.
GL