First and Ten

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Note: Surprised to see I did not finish my record tabulation for the 2024-2025 NCAA season. Will edit this post to include that record after I finish a tabulation.

2024 NFL Regular Season: 57-59 (-8.85*)
- - Fav: 45-38
- - Dog: 10-20
- - Totals: 2-1
- - In-game: 0-0
- - NFC North: 18-14
2024-2025 NFL Postseason: 5-8 (-3.60*)

2024 NFL and NCAA Futures: 2-1 (+0.70*)



2023 NFL Regular Season: 69-63 (-1.91*)
- - Fav: 47-38
- - Dog: 22-20
- - Totals: 0-3
- - 2nd H: 0-2
- - NFC North: 21-18
2023-2024 NFL Postseason: 9-4 (+4.45*)

2023 NCAA Regular Season: 119-114 (-5.70*)
- - Fav: 85-69
- - Dog: 29-39
- - Totals: 2-4
- - 2nd H: 3-2
- - Big10: 34-30
2023-2024 Bowl Season: 13-14 (-4.25*)

2023 NFL and NCAA Futures: 4-3 (+0.15*)

All Games 2023 Season: 214-198 (-7.26*)



2022 NFL Regular Season: 79-74 (-3.60*)
2022-2023 NFL Postseason: 6-10 (-4.90*)

2022 NCAA Regular Season: 89-102 (-20.25*)
2022-2023 NCAA Bowl Season: 15-14 (-0.90*)

All Games 2022 Season: 189-200 (-29.65*)



2021 NFL Regular Season: 81-76 (-5.25*)
2021-2022 NFL Postseason: 5-8 (-4.14*)

2021 NCAA Regular Season: 114-97 (+8.47*)
2021-2022 NCAA Bowl Season: 13-12 (-1.43*)

All Games 2021 Season: 213-193 (-2.35*)



GL
 
MadJack

MadJack

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I'm following. Have a great year. LFG!
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,390
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
ODDS and ENDS:

(1) Bob Hope has been quoted as saying, "If you watch a game, it's fun. If you play it, it's recreation. If you work at it, it's golf." My sports gambling is for both fun and recreation. But I work at it - because I enjoy it.

(2) I do this for fun. I love championship golf, and most any game of American football. For the last few years, a 1* bet in football has been $18, and a 1* e.w. bet in golf has been $6 + $6 = $12. That’s just for fun. I settled on those amounts for a number of reasons, but most prominent is a superstitious belief from many, many outcomes. Those same superstitious proclivities are why I almost NEVER pull the trigger to make and post plays until gameday, unless there are extenuating circumstances, such as I will be out of town and unavailable, etc., so value has certainly been lost more than a few times, but I believe my decision making is greatly enhanced in the long run. Anyway, I’ve started this football season by bumping my 1* football plays to $24, hopefully for more fun.

(3) I generally post my plays from perceived “strongest” to “weakest”, but it seems what I consider my strongest plays don’t really turn out to have any higher winning percentage than my weakest plays over the course of a long season. So level bets are the norm, and my bottom line over the long run does not seem to be determined by whether I have 3 or 4 NFL and NCAA plays every football weekend, or 12-30 plays. However, I think a large slate of plays keeps my interest high for sponging up more INFORMATION and ANGLES from all my usual sources, and keeps my instincts sharp for knowing when to TRUST MY STUFF and not be afraid to make a play, producing a very real long term benefit. And while I’ll definitely embrace the fun of forcing a play (if need be) on all the biggest games, I am otherwise pretty damned disciplined in making plays only when I perceive a reason for doing so. But also new for this year, I’m going to take a stab at consistently rating a few plays at 1.5* or 2* every week, until the results aren’t so fun.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,390
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 4-4 (+0.15*)


Gotta give it up to the ACC. Rarely, if ever, have the teams in one conference stepped up with so many absorbing games in Week 1. Definitely started yesterday with the Georgia Tech trip to Boulder.


Texas(+1') over Ohio State (1.5*)
- - I’ve leaned to Texas in this game for months and months. Nothing recent has dissuaded me.

Utah(-5') over UCLA (1.5*)
- -

Purdue(-17)(-105) over Ball State (1*)
- -

Iowa(-39') over Albany (1*)
- - I will have a play on the Iowa game every week - I do this for fun. Iowa favored by a million. I’m not taking Albany.

Clemson(-4) over LSU (1*)
- -

South Dakota(+16') over Iowa State (1*)
- - Has to rate as one of the major sandwich games of the season. Could rate as one of the major sandwich games of the decade.

Florida State(+13') over Alabama (1*)
- -

Northwestern(+5) over Tulane (1*)
- -

Tennessee(-13') over Syracuse (1*)
- -


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,390
207
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD 10-10 (-1.05*)
NFL YTD: 1-1 (-0.10*)

No stand out plays grabbing me for today. So far.

California (-44') over Texas Southern (1*)
- - “You won’t find a better true freshman debut—especially on the road—than what Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele delivered for Cal,” PFF wrote. Freshman have been eligible since 1972, and for a display of passing skills in a freshman debut, I’ll go a step further, borrowing a line from a favorite movie, “I have never seen its equal.” Pretty huge number, but I’m in on this week being something that builds on what is, “I don’t believe what I just saw.”
Link: https://www.si.com/college/cal/foot...-cal-qb-jaron-keawe-sagapolutele-01k42sq8vaj5

Kansas(+5') over Missouri (1*)
- -

Colorado(-24) over Delaware (1*)
- -

Iowa State(-3)(-130) over Iowa (1*)
- - Wish I was seeing it different.

Illinois(-2') over Duke (1*)
- -

Oregon State(-1') over Fresno State (1*)
- -

Arkansas(-23) over Arkansas State (1*)
- -

Virginia(+3) over North Carolina State (1*)
- -

GL
 
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