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NASCAR Picks for Auto Club

by Brian Polking, Sunday, March 16, 2014 6:19:48 PM CDT FFToolbox.com

Track Info:
Length: 2.000 miles
Shape: D-shaped Oval
Type: Superspeedway
Location: Fontana, California
View Average Finishes



What a difference a week makes. Last Sunday, drivers were practically running on top of each other at Bristol Motor Speedway. This Sunday, drivers will be spread out across the 2.0-mile Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California that is roughly four times the size of Bristol. Of course, there wasn't nearly enough space in the closing laps at ACS last year as a wild finish sent Denny Hamlin to the hospital, put Kyle Busch in victory lane and left Tony Stewart looking to get a piece of Joey Logano. Whether Sunday's Auto Club 400 lives up to last year's race remains to be seen, but in the meantime, fantasy owners need to focus on overhauling the short-track oriented lineups from a week ago.
Downforce and horsepower will play a much bigger role this weekend than last, and while that really doesn't impact the value of the big names much, it will shuffle up the pecking order a bit (while somewhat significantly impacting which sleeper drivers are worth targeting). After all, success at Bristol is often tied more to a driver's feel for short track racing than the resources at their disposal. At Auto Club, drivers can often benefit from driving for teams with strong equipment, and organizations often run well as a whole at the track. It is something worth thinking about as we dive into this weekend's rankings.

1. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

He is the defending winner of this weekend's race and a two-time winner at ACS for his career. Busch has been on a serious roll at the track lately. He has finished third or better in each of the last three races at the track, and during the stretch, he has led 356 of the 529 laps. Meanwhile, Busch has always been consistent at Auto Club, logging 11 top-10s in his last 14 starts.


2. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

In terms of consistency, no driver can match Johnson's numbers at Auto Club. His 5.7 average finish at the track is by far the best in the series, and he also leads all drivers with five wins. Johnson has actually finished either first or second in 10 of his 19 starts at ACS, and he has never finished worse than 16th.


3. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser/Jimmy Johns, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

After struggling at ACS early in his career, Harvick has emerged as one of the best options at the track of late. He has finished in the top 15 in his last six starts, compiling a 6.2 average finish. During the stretch, Harvick has finished fourth or better three times, including a win in 2011.


4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Over the past two seasons, Junior has become one of the best in the business at 2.0-mile tracks. In six starts since the start of the 2012 season, his four top-five finishes are the most in the series, and he ranks second with 174 laps led. At Auto Club Speedway specifically, Junior has finishes of third and second in his last two starts.


5. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Edwards just never seems to have a bad day at Auto Club Speedway. His 8.4 average finish at the track is the second best in the series, and in 16 starts, he has only finished outside the top 15 twice. In fact, Edwards has only finished worse than seventh in three starts at the track.


6. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

He is a three-time winner at Auto Club, and Kenseth is also one of the most consistent drivers at the 2.0-mile oval. His 10.5 average finish at the track since 2001 is the third best in the series, and in his last 14 starts, he has 11 finishes of seventh or better.


7. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

Logano has always been a solid performer at ACS and 2.0-mile tracks in general, but he really took his performance to another level in 2013. He compiled a 4.3 average finish in three starts at 2.0-mile ovals, finishing a career-best third at Auto Club and leading more than 20 laps in all three starts. Overall, Logano has finished in the top 15 in four of his last six starts in Fontana.


8. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Since the start of the 2001 season, Busch's 12.4 average finish at ACS is the fifth best in the series, so it's clear that he likes the track. What's more impressive is that he has managed to finish ninth and fifth in his last two starts, despite driving for Phoenix Racing and Furniture Row Racing. If Busch can finish in the top-10 for two different single-car operations, he should at least be able to do the same for Stewart-Haas Racing this weekend.


9. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

When it comes to 2.0-mile tracks, nobody has been better the past two years than Biffle. In six starts during the stretch, he has a series-leading 4.5 average and has scored 26 more points than any other driver. Biffle also has top-10 finishes in all six starts, including a pair of sixth-place finishes at ACS.


10. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Entering Sunday's race, no driver has a longer active streak of top-10s at ACS than Newman. He has reeled off four straight top-10s at the track; and during the stretch, he has compiled a 6.8 average finish. His career numbers at Auto Club are just average, but it is tough to ignore his recent run of success.

11. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Although he is winless at Auto Club Speedway, Bowyer has been reliable at the 2.0-mile oval. His 12.7 average finish is the sixth best in the series, and in 13 starts, he has only finished outside the top 20 on one occasion. More importantly, Bowyer has nine top-15 finishes at the track, including five in his last six starts.


12. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

The former ACS winner was a little hit or miss at the track early in his career, but Kahne has been enjoying a nice stretch of solid finishes the past few seasons. He has four straight top-15s at the track, logging a 9.0 average finish during the stretch. On the flip side, Kahne has just one top-five finish in 11 starts since his 2006 victory at ACS, so his consistency has come at the expense of some upside
 

Old School

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13. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

Keselowski is off to a scorching start in 2014, but his career numbers at Auto Club Speedway are horrible. He has a 22.8 average finish in five starts at the track, and an 18th-place finish in 2012 is his only top-20 to date. Keselowski is running too well to write off completely, but depending on the format, owners may still want to pass on him at one of his worst tracks.


14. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

With just one top-five finish in 13 starts, ACS is clearly not Hamlin's best track. Granted, he nearly pulled out a victory last season before getting tangled up with Joey Logano on the final lap, but he has just one top-10 in his last six starts at the track compared to four finishes of 25th or worse. Among the big names, Hamlin is one of the riskier plays.



15. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Since finishing second in both races at ACS in 2009, Gordon's results at the track have been a little more pedestrian. He has a 16.8 average finish in his last five starts, and while he has finished in the top 20 four times, he only has one top-10 finish. Look for a decent but unspectacular showing out of Gordon this weekend.



16. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Vickers hasn't made a Cup start at ACS since 2011, but he could return with a bang this weekend. After all, the track has been one of his best throughout his career. In his last eight starts in Fontana, he has seven top-12 finishes, including an eighth-place finish in his most recent outing.



17. Tony Stewart, #14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

On one hand, Stewart has been excellent at ACS lately (he has six top-15s in his last seven starts at the track and has made two trips to victory lane during the stretch). On the other hand, he has been beyond terrible to open the 2014 season, so he is really hard to trust. Unless Stewart dominates during qualifying and practice this weekend, fantasy owners should probably just stay away until he starts delivering decent results.



18. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

As has been the case with several tracks, Menard has been trending in the right direction at Auto Club. After finishing 20th or worse in his first six starts at the track, he has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts, including three straight. Menard finished a career-best eighth at ACS last year, and he makes a legitimate sleeper pick this weekend.



19. Martin Truex, Jr., #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Truex doesn't have a lot of upside this weekend, but he shouldn't have a horrible outing either. In 13 starts at Auto Club Speedway, Truex has just three top-10s and zero top-five finishes, but he does have eight finishes of 18th or better. Don't expect more than a top-20 finish, and you won't be disappointed.



20. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kingsford/Clorox, JTG Daugherty Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Allmendinger has quietly put together a solid resume at ACS. In nine career starts at the track, he has six top-20 finishes, including four straight. In fact, Allmendinger has finished 16th or better in his last three starts. He could be a sneaky sleeper option for owners this weekend.



21. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemical/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Although he has never made a Cup start at Auto Club Speedway, Dillon did look comfortable in a pair of starts at Michigan last year, recording top-15 finishes in both starts. As you will notice by some of the stats I have already mentioned, drivers that run well at one of the 2.0-mile ovals also tend to have success at the other. If Dillon's success at Michigan translates to ACS, he will make a great sleeper pick.



22. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He made his Auto Club Speedway debut last year, and he finished a respectable 20th. Perhaps more importantly, he actually finished in the top 20 in all three races at 2.0-mile tracks as a rookie. Even if he doesn't improve in his sophomore year, Stenhouse should challenge for a top-20 this weekend.



23. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

McMurray opened his career on a tear at ACS, finishing in the top 15 in six straight starts. However, he has gone in the wrong direction since his fast start. McMurray has failed to crack the top 15 in his last 12 starts at ACS, finishing outside the top 20 six times during the stretch.



24. Kyle Larson, #42 Target, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class C]

The rookie will be making his Cup Series debut at Auto Club Speedway, and owners should be cautiously optimistic about his chances. Larson has shown in his brief career that he loves the high line, and that high groove will definitely work at ACS. On the flip side, Larson has often gotten into the wall because of his driving style, ruining promising runs. Still, he has plenty of upside for owners willing to take the risk.
 

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[h=4]25. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B][/h]After a career-best 14th-place run at ACS last year, there may finally be some light at the end of the tunnel for Almirola at the 2.0-mile track. Unfortunately, he has finished 25th or worse in his other five starts at the track and owns a dismal 29.7 average finish. Fantasy owners are better off waiting until he proves last year's run wasn't a fluke before trusting a guy with such poor career numbers at ACS.
[h=4]26. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B][/h]It is tough to find anything to be optimistic about when it comes to Ambrose's performance at Auto Club Speedway. In eight career starts at the track, he has amassed an ugly 28.8 average finish. More concerning is that he has never even cracked the top 20 at the track.

[h=4]27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class C][/h]Her 26th-place finish in her ACS debut last year wasn't anything special, but it also wasn't her worst showing of her rookie year by any means. Meanwhile, Patrick did rank 13th and 23rd in two starts at Michigan, so she actually held her own at the 2.0-mile tracks. She could end up in the top 25 Sunday.

[h=4]28. Casey Mears, #13 GEICO, Germain Racing [Yahoo Class B][/h]He has actually been pretty decent in his last two starts in Fontana. Mears finished 23rd in the 2012 event, and he came home 15th in last year's race. A top-25 finish is definitely the more likely outcome for Mears this weekend, but he could still be a viable sleeper option in deeper leagues.

[h=4]29. David Ragan, #34 CSX Transportation/Peanut Patch, Front Row Motorsports [Yahoo Class B][/h]When he was with Roush Fenway Racing, Ragan could be counted on for at least a top-20 finish at Auto Club Speedway. His performance at the track has slipped since joining Front Row Motorsports, but he did sneak into the top 25 in last year's race. A top-25 is likely his ceiling again this weekend, making him an option in deeper leagues only.

[h=4]30. Reed Sorenson, #36 Golden Corral, Tommy Baldwin Racing [Yahoo Class C][/h]Sorenson has made 10 career Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway for a variety of smaller teams, and his best finish at the track is 21st on four different occasions. This weekend, he will be driving for a Tommy Baldwin Racing team that finished 21st in last year's race at ACS with Dave Blaney behind the wheel. Sorenson's value is limited, but in salary-based leagues in particular, he might be able to sneak into the top 25 while providing a lot of cap relief.
 

DeadPrez

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Like them both a lot Shiner, Logano was very strong on 2.0 mile tracks last year and has been qualifying lights out this year. I'm jumping in with my first 2 pre-race plays of this season.

Junior +1250
Kahne +1400

Hoping Logano comes back up a little bit :0008 good luck
 

Old School

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latest from SIA

15:00 Auto Club 400 - Outright More Betting (6)


  • Jimmie Johnson +596
  • Kyle Busch +696
  • Matt Kenseth +800
  • Kevin Harvick +900
  • Brad Keselowski +900
  • Kasey Kahne +1000
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr +1100
  • Joey Logano +1100
  • Denny Hamlin +1100
  • Jeff Gordon +1500

  • Carl Edwards +1500
  • Clint Bowyer +2500
  • Ryan Newman +2500
  • Kurt Busch +2500
  • Greg Biffle +2500
  • Tony Stewart +2500
  • Brian Vickers +3400
  • Martin Truex Jr +5000
  • Jamie McMurray +5000
  • Field +2000
 

Old School

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Nascar Auto Club 400 - To Win Outright
ORDER BY Odds Title
icon_pfeildownrnews.gif


<tbody>
</tbody>
Mar 21, 2014 15:00
Nascar Auto Club 400: To Win Outright

<tbody>
</tbody>
Option
Win Odds
Place Odds
Jimmie Johnson
+600
+120
Kyle Busch
+700
+140
Matt Kenseth
+800
+160
Brad Keselowski
+900
+180
Kevin Harvick
+900
+180
Kasey Kahne
+1000
+200
Dale Earnhardt Jnr
+1100
+220
Denny Hamlin
+1100
+220
Joey Logano
+1100
+220
Carl Edwards
+1500
+300
Jeff Gordon
+1500
+300
Clint Bowyer
+2500
+500
Greg Biffle
+2500
+500
Kurt Busch
+2500
+500
Ryan Newman
+2500
+500
Tony Stewart
+2500
+500
Brian Vickers
+3500
+700
Jamie McMurray
+5000
+1000
Martin Truex Jr
+5000
+1000

<tbody>
</tbody>
Place Odds: This allows you to choose the competitor/participant/team that you think will finish in the top three (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the specified tournament/event/competition/race. Place odds are calculated as 1/5 of the outright odds to win the tournament/event/competition/race.



LATEST FROM intertops

http://www.intertops.eu/f/

<tbody>
</tbody>
<input name="SPMC1031273!0" type="hidden" value="pick"> <input name="auth" type="hidden" value="False">

<tbody>
</tbody>
 

DeadPrez

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Odds came up pretty significantly for Logano and Kyle. I jumped on both along with shiner at +1100 and +825 respectively.
 

Looselugs

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May 5, 2005
1,365
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38
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Nationwide

Nationwide

Like these today before qualifying,

Ty Dillion over Brian Scott -135
Chase Elliott over Brian Scott -140
Brendan Gaughan over James Buescher +125
Joey Logano over Matt Kenseth -130

gl
lugs
 

DeadPrez

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Sep 9, 2005
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New York
Like these today before qualifying,

Ty Dillion over Brian Scott -135
Chase Elliott over Brian Scott -140
Brendan Gaughan over James Buescher +125
Joey Logano over Matt Kenseth -130

gl
lugs

I tailed along, thanks for the plays :0008

what a great race
 

Looselugs

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May 5, 2005
1,365
24
38
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You picked a good time to tail DeadPrez..:0074

That was the best nationwide race I`ve seen in a long long time!
Hope they can back it up again today.

Just one for me today,

Tony Stewart over Kurt Busch -115

gl
lugs
 

DeadPrez

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 9, 2005
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I got burned with my early plays, all the odds have dropped :facepalm:

anyway adding to today, I also have Stewart to win and Stewart (-115) over Kurt Busch. That play was actually +135 when I was trying to play it last night and it dropped while I was making the play to -115.

Played Harvick to win, Harvick top 3, Stewart to finish under 10.5, Junior top 3 and a steep Larson top 3

Good luck today :0008
 

Old School

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Mar 19, 2006
38,481
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latest from SIA

15:00 Auto Club 400 - Outright More Betting (6)

  • Jimmie Johnson +596
  • Kyle Busch +696
  • Matt Kenseth +800
  • Kevin Harvick +900
  • Brad Keselowski +900
  • Kasey Kahne +1000
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr +1100
  • Joey Logano +1100
  • Denny Hamlin +1100
  • Jeff Gordon +1500

  • Carl Edwards +1500
  • Clint Bowyer +2500
  • Ryan Newman +2500
  • Kurt Busch +2500
  • Greg Biffle +2500
  • Tony Stewart +2500
  • Brian Vickers +3400
  • Martin Truex Jr +5000
  • Jamie McMurray +5000
  • Field +2000


latest SIA

Sunday, March 23, 2014


15:18 Auto Club 400 - Outright More Betting (21)



  • Jimmie Johnson +393
  • Matt Kenseth +595
  • Kevin Harvick +601
  • Kyle Busch +800
  • Jeff Gordon +800
  • Brad Keselowski +1000
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
  • Denny Hamlin +1200
  • Kasey Kahne +1500
  • Carl Edwards +1500

  • Clint Bowyer +1500
  • Tony Stewart +2000
  • Joey Logano +2300
  • Kurt Busch +2500
  • Brian Vickers +2500
  • Ryan Newman +3100
  • Greg Biffle +3400
  • Jamie McMurray +7700
  • Martin Truex Jr +8000
  • Field +2000
 
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