It's been a long time. I still enjoy reading the boards and apprecaite the work put into so much information posted here at the forum.
This week has some OUTSTANDING values, in my opinion. Listed in no particular order -- both college and pro:
OKLAHOMA (+6.5, +7, +7.5)
I saw this at Mandalay on Monday night. I quickly put down $1600 at +6.5. Then, the next day, I went to Palace Station and bought the half point, laying $3,600/3,000. Then, I made a small play offshore ($650/500). I also bet this on the quarters angle -- $1000 per quarter and OU getting points in all quarters. My exposure on this game amounts to a whopping $10,350. This makes this the largest single game wager I have ever made.
Some may think I am stepping out too far on this play, when my standard wager is in the $500-1000 range. I agree that the size of the wager does not match the confidence level. However, I think the chance that this game is close is somewhere in the 60-70 percent range, and if the game is indeed a TD or less, I will make money.
We can certainly agree that an OU victory would not be a surprise. Even with offensive troubles (lack of passing game), OU still has a strong defense and UCLA has not played this level of competition, to date.
My biggest reason for playing so heavy on OU comes for two reasons. First, is the VALUE. If this line was up three weeks ago, I expect OU would have been favored by -7 points. The question I ask is -- how can just TWO games swing a line by double digits? Had UCLA upset Ohio State and Texas, I might give the line "move" some weight. But Rice and SDSU? Those are borderline Division 2 schools.
The other reason is -- OU frankly needs this game more. UCLA is ahead of expectations and OU is behind them.
I think we will see a close game, where a TD means a lot.
OU is the play.
SYRACUSE +8
SYR is a ghost of their former glory, but they aren't 8 points worse than Virginia, playing at home.
NEVADA-RENO +1.5
I love the Wolfpack in this game. First, the Wolfpack have dominated this series the last ten years. Line is off because Nevada lost in embarrassing fashion last week on national TV playing against WSU. Now, everyone thinks UNLV is the better team. Bullshit. Nevada got smashed last week in what was very likely a look ahead situation. Once they fell behind, the team sorta gave up and the final score was misleading. That won't happen this week. Nevada always take this game much more seriously than do the Rebels, as Reno has an inferiority complex to LV. Add the UNLV coach talking smack in the press about Nevada (he calls them, "that school in the North") -- and Nevada with a slightly better team, playing at home, with some added motivation, getting points is a solid play.
MICHIGAN STATE +6
Oddsmakers have overreacted here to the Irish' first two wins. While ND is improved, they still remain with many questions. MSU (also 2-0) always plays tough, as the last five in this series have all been decided by less than a TD. This is a big test game for two schools. I think the points are a premium here.
ARKANSAS +31.5
Here's a great value play. USC is the top team in the country, but the linesmakers are now giving the Trojans too many points. It's just a matter of time before a real team shows up and tests the Trojans. HAW is USC's only game, and USC looked fabulous in that contest. But ARK is not HAW -- this is a middle of the road SEC team (the best football conference in the nation). I understand why this line is so high -- the money has to be balanced. But USC can't keep laying 30+ every week and cover indefinitely. Top programs are often 30+ favorites versus dregs -- but the Razerbacks are no slouch. USC wins it by 20 but I think we get the cover.
BOSTON COLLEGE +1.5
BC has looked fabulous in two games. Now, they play at home in a huge game. FSU looked horrible offensively in FALSE win over MIA (they were outgained nearly 3-1). This should be a low scoring game, with BC getting the best of it versus a team coming off a huge emotional win versus a hated rival.
MISS STATE -2.5
Get this fast. It has already moved to -3 in some places. This will be played on a neutral field at Shreveport, LA. Tulane, which is a marginal team anyways, now has its FIRST GAME. They have been training at different schools, and have been living out of suitcases for three weeks. This is not like the NFL Saints, which is a .500 team and has first class facilities. Tulane is a second class program, playing versus an SEC school. MSU will look at this game as a way to get an easy WIN (sometimes a trap, but not here with SEC schedule coming up)......MSU has played TWO games already while TUL has yet to play this year. That's a huge advantage to the team that's battle tested. MSU should roll in this game.
STL-ARZ UNDER 43.5
Total is inflated because of last week's games. ARZ lost a high scoring game because it gave up a defensive TD, and two kicks were returned for TD. STL got into an unanticipated shootout with SFO. This week, the pace will be different. 100 degree temperature in Phoenix will slow down the pace of the game. Last five home games in ARZ have gone UNDER in month of Sept. Very high total based on inflated Rams numbers in the dome. Outside, the offense is average. Big ARZ DL will wear down Rams. 21-16 type of game here.
SAN DIEGO +3
This is the best pro play of the week. Chargers are the better team and lost a game last week that wasn't shameful (they could have won it -- as they had first and goal at the 7 but failed to score in four plays). Meanwhile, DEN showed they are filled with holes. That was as uninspired performance as has been seen by a Shannahan coached team. I expect some heat hangover this week, as team that play next week after heat/humidity games often have layover affect. DEN came out of the game bruised up, while SDi gets back the TE Gates to the lineup. If MIA won by 24, what will SDI attack do? I say they win this outright -- which means a play on the moneyline and another wager on the +3. Getting a FG is a gift.
CLEVELAND +6
The Packers are a terrible team. I am surprised that fewer people have picked up on this fact. This team may very well have the worst defense in football. Browns are no confidence bet by themselves, but Green Bay has absolutely no business at this stage laying 6 points to anyone. Should be closer than the spread indicates. (Note: Packer's lead WR out)
SAN FRANCISCO +13
SFO / PHILA UNDER 40.5
No way the Eagles should be laying this many points -- especially as sloppy as the offense looked last week. SFO comes in with a nothing to lose attitude which is always dangerous for an opponent. I think Eagles defense will stuff 49ers and the Eagles will win in an uninspiring performance. Looks like a 23-13 final score to me.
DETROIT -1
I lay points on the road about as often as the Democrats win the White House. But here's a spot where Lions should cover. CHI offense will continue to look lost for a few more weeks, as they were essentially shut out last week (score came on turnover deep in territory). DET comes off big win and see this game as a real chance to make a statement. We have a more vet team with many weapons, versus a team that will have a very tough time scoring points. I think it's justified laying such a tiny number on the road.
-- Nolan Dalla
This week has some OUTSTANDING values, in my opinion. Listed in no particular order -- both college and pro:
OKLAHOMA (+6.5, +7, +7.5)
I saw this at Mandalay on Monday night. I quickly put down $1600 at +6.5. Then, the next day, I went to Palace Station and bought the half point, laying $3,600/3,000. Then, I made a small play offshore ($650/500). I also bet this on the quarters angle -- $1000 per quarter and OU getting points in all quarters. My exposure on this game amounts to a whopping $10,350. This makes this the largest single game wager I have ever made.
Some may think I am stepping out too far on this play, when my standard wager is in the $500-1000 range. I agree that the size of the wager does not match the confidence level. However, I think the chance that this game is close is somewhere in the 60-70 percent range, and if the game is indeed a TD or less, I will make money.
We can certainly agree that an OU victory would not be a surprise. Even with offensive troubles (lack of passing game), OU still has a strong defense and UCLA has not played this level of competition, to date.
My biggest reason for playing so heavy on OU comes for two reasons. First, is the VALUE. If this line was up three weeks ago, I expect OU would have been favored by -7 points. The question I ask is -- how can just TWO games swing a line by double digits? Had UCLA upset Ohio State and Texas, I might give the line "move" some weight. But Rice and SDSU? Those are borderline Division 2 schools.
The other reason is -- OU frankly needs this game more. UCLA is ahead of expectations and OU is behind them.
I think we will see a close game, where a TD means a lot.
OU is the play.
SYRACUSE +8
SYR is a ghost of their former glory, but they aren't 8 points worse than Virginia, playing at home.
NEVADA-RENO +1.5
I love the Wolfpack in this game. First, the Wolfpack have dominated this series the last ten years. Line is off because Nevada lost in embarrassing fashion last week on national TV playing against WSU. Now, everyone thinks UNLV is the better team. Bullshit. Nevada got smashed last week in what was very likely a look ahead situation. Once they fell behind, the team sorta gave up and the final score was misleading. That won't happen this week. Nevada always take this game much more seriously than do the Rebels, as Reno has an inferiority complex to LV. Add the UNLV coach talking smack in the press about Nevada (he calls them, "that school in the North") -- and Nevada with a slightly better team, playing at home, with some added motivation, getting points is a solid play.
MICHIGAN STATE +6
Oddsmakers have overreacted here to the Irish' first two wins. While ND is improved, they still remain with many questions. MSU (also 2-0) always plays tough, as the last five in this series have all been decided by less than a TD. This is a big test game for two schools. I think the points are a premium here.
ARKANSAS +31.5
Here's a great value play. USC is the top team in the country, but the linesmakers are now giving the Trojans too many points. It's just a matter of time before a real team shows up and tests the Trojans. HAW is USC's only game, and USC looked fabulous in that contest. But ARK is not HAW -- this is a middle of the road SEC team (the best football conference in the nation). I understand why this line is so high -- the money has to be balanced. But USC can't keep laying 30+ every week and cover indefinitely. Top programs are often 30+ favorites versus dregs -- but the Razerbacks are no slouch. USC wins it by 20 but I think we get the cover.
BOSTON COLLEGE +1.5
BC has looked fabulous in two games. Now, they play at home in a huge game. FSU looked horrible offensively in FALSE win over MIA (they were outgained nearly 3-1). This should be a low scoring game, with BC getting the best of it versus a team coming off a huge emotional win versus a hated rival.
MISS STATE -2.5
Get this fast. It has already moved to -3 in some places. This will be played on a neutral field at Shreveport, LA. Tulane, which is a marginal team anyways, now has its FIRST GAME. They have been training at different schools, and have been living out of suitcases for three weeks. This is not like the NFL Saints, which is a .500 team and has first class facilities. Tulane is a second class program, playing versus an SEC school. MSU will look at this game as a way to get an easy WIN (sometimes a trap, but not here with SEC schedule coming up)......MSU has played TWO games already while TUL has yet to play this year. That's a huge advantage to the team that's battle tested. MSU should roll in this game.
STL-ARZ UNDER 43.5
Total is inflated because of last week's games. ARZ lost a high scoring game because it gave up a defensive TD, and two kicks were returned for TD. STL got into an unanticipated shootout with SFO. This week, the pace will be different. 100 degree temperature in Phoenix will slow down the pace of the game. Last five home games in ARZ have gone UNDER in month of Sept. Very high total based on inflated Rams numbers in the dome. Outside, the offense is average. Big ARZ DL will wear down Rams. 21-16 type of game here.
SAN DIEGO +3
This is the best pro play of the week. Chargers are the better team and lost a game last week that wasn't shameful (they could have won it -- as they had first and goal at the 7 but failed to score in four plays). Meanwhile, DEN showed they are filled with holes. That was as uninspired performance as has been seen by a Shannahan coached team. I expect some heat hangover this week, as team that play next week after heat/humidity games often have layover affect. DEN came out of the game bruised up, while SDi gets back the TE Gates to the lineup. If MIA won by 24, what will SDI attack do? I say they win this outright -- which means a play on the moneyline and another wager on the +3. Getting a FG is a gift.
CLEVELAND +6
The Packers are a terrible team. I am surprised that fewer people have picked up on this fact. This team may very well have the worst defense in football. Browns are no confidence bet by themselves, but Green Bay has absolutely no business at this stage laying 6 points to anyone. Should be closer than the spread indicates. (Note: Packer's lead WR out)
SAN FRANCISCO +13
SFO / PHILA UNDER 40.5
No way the Eagles should be laying this many points -- especially as sloppy as the offense looked last week. SFO comes in with a nothing to lose attitude which is always dangerous for an opponent. I think Eagles defense will stuff 49ers and the Eagles will win in an uninspiring performance. Looks like a 23-13 final score to me.
DETROIT -1
I lay points on the road about as often as the Democrats win the White House. But here's a spot where Lions should cover. CHI offense will continue to look lost for a few more weeks, as they were essentially shut out last week (score came on turnover deep in territory). DET comes off big win and see this game as a real chance to make a statement. We have a more vet team with many weapons, versus a team that will have a very tough time scoring points. I think it's justified laying such a tiny number on the road.
-- Nolan Dalla
bol emmitt
