Friday Luck ??

Spock

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Have updated the records :
:D = WIN
:mad: = LOSS AND I AM VERY MAD



Lets see if we can get some good plays after going 7 - 0 - 1 yesterday.

Playing the following :

1. Toronto -137 :D

The key here is what I have stressed all the time. Toronto is a very very streaky team. When they get into their winning mode they win a lot of games in a bunch.

Loaiza had a good outing last game out. Gave up only 1 ER in 7 innings and 3 runs overall. Won the game against Boston.

Toronto over the last 10 games is hitting LHP at a 0.364 %.
TB is hitting 0.224 against RHP.

TB is 1-9 in last 10 games.
Toronto is 6-1 in their last 7 games.
What this means is that both the teams are heading in opposite directions.

Loaiza has won his last 3 at Skydome and team has gone 5-2 in his 7 starts at Skydome
Kennedy has lost his last 2 on the road and his team is 3 - 8 on the road when he starts. Kennedy has lost 4 games in a row overall.

Loaiza has a ERA of 5.32 overall but this decreases to 4.46 at home.
Kennedy has an overall ERA of 4.23 but his ERA on the road increases to 5.15

Note: TB is 7-2 in last 9 starts by Kennedy but I think its how they are playing now that matters a lot. TB bull pen is worse than that of Toronto and they gave up late runs to Boston which is not a good sign.

The only thing of concern here is that Loaiza has given up a lot of runs to TB in his last 2 starts against them. But I have seen him pitch and he has been pitching better last few games.

I dont know how much this data is valid as I have not done any research on it but here is an interesting stat.

Tampa Bay when playing on Friday is 2-14

Kennedy has a tendecy to give up runs thru long ball and this may be beneficial to Toronto as it will score more runs.

In games played at Toronto .. Toronto is 22 - 10 against TB.


Point of Concern :
Kennedy is 3-0 when starting against Toronto with an ERA of 3.52. Team record 3-2 in last 5 starts against TO.

Loaiza is 2 - 3 against TB with an ERA of 8.50 and a whip of 1.972
Team record is 5-5


But as I said before I put a lot of importance on the psychology of the teams and how they are playing recently as there tend to be streaks.

Dont know how much it may affect TB but the report that the team failed to make payments to 2 of its players may be at the back of all the players and may affect them negatively.

Final Score : Toronto 6 TB 3




Good luck and Cheers !!!
Spock
 
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Spock

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thanx bounding . I think ya went even better .. of course most of my plays are in the $30 - $40 range so end of day is not as many $$ as a lot of people here but then again slow and steady wins in the end :D

Another point I forgot to mention is that the return of Hose Curz Jr will help Toronto a lot. He is a switch hitter and is capable of hitting HR both sides.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Hermione

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Awesome day yesterday! Was happy with the push in the bal/tor game too. Thanks for the updates on the game last night. You were posting them faster than I could get them.

Congrats again on yesterday!
 

Spock

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2. Seattle @ Anaeheim Seattle - 138 (Pinnacle) :mad: :mad:

Anaeheim did not score a single run yesterday night. Zito shut them off. This shows that they have a problem scoring runs against good pitchers.

Garcia got rocked a couple of games ago but has rebounded nicely.

Seattle had a nice come back from behind yesterday against Texas. Meanwhile Angels failed to register a single run and lost to Oakland. The mentality with which these two teams enter todays game into is totally opposite.


Coming to the pitchers :

When Garcia starts Seattle is 15 - 5
When Ortiz starts Angels are 10-8

In last 3 games when each pitcher has started
Seattle is 3 - 0
Angels are 1 - 2

In last 3 games Garcia has an ERA of 3.48 while Ortiz has ERA of
5.68

Point to note : In 20 innings Garcia has given up 21 hits.
Ortiz in 19 innings has given up only 15 hits.

Seattle is batting 0.243 against RHP
Angles are batting 0.253 against RHP
but the difference betn the two teams is the pitcher.

Garcia has won his last 5 on the road.

Garcia has tremendows confidence against Angels.
Going back to last year Garcia is a perfect 7 - 0 in his games against the Angels.
Over all His team record is 8 - 1 against the Angels
Out of these 7 games 6 games have gone Under the total


Meanwhile Ortiz is a perfect 0 - 4 against Seattle in his games against Seattle dating back to last year.
All 4 of his starts against Seattle have gone Under.
Going back 6 games he is 1 - 4 against Seattle (His team has gone 1 - 5 in these games when he has started)
The Under is 5 - 1 in his 6 starts.

When Garcia starts on the road he has run support of 4.90 runs. Meanwhile Ortiz has been getting just 2.57 run support for his games at home.

In the game played at Anaheim over the last 3 seasons Seattle is 16 - 4.

We dont have the Ump Info but this looks like a great spot to play Seattle Under also.

I think Seattle is a good play here with the price.

Note : Anaheim are 35 - 9 in their last 34 at home but team to team matchup is more important than this stat.

Final Score : Seattle 4 Anaheim 1

***************************************************
The Under may be a good play in this game but since there is no info on the Umpires available will stay off. Have been hurt before by playing on totals in first game of series w/o knowing who the Ump was
***************************************************

Good luck and Cheers !!!
Spock
 
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Spock

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3. White Sox @ Baltimore : Baltimore -140 @ Pinnacle :D

White Sox are 3 - 7 in their last 10.
Baltimore are 5 - 5 in their last 10.

White Sox in road games have a record of 19 - 31
In night games Sox are 28 - 34
Vs. RHP are 35 - 38


Baltimore are an unimpressive 22 - 23 when playing at home.
But in night games they are 35 - 29.
Vs RHP are 35 - 30

I saw the Baltimore @ Toronto game yesterday and after Driskill was drilled by Toronto the bull pen came in and was very effective.

White Sox bull pen on the other hand has a much higher ERA.

Coming to the pitchers

Garland for the Sox has an overall record of 8 - 6 and his team is
9 - 10 in all his starts. Garland averages 4.61 ERA
In last 3 games Garland has a record of 2 - 1 but a high ERA of 5.49
In 10 games he has started on the road Garland is 3 - 3 while his team record is 4 - 6
His ERA on the road is 5.53 which is almost a run more than his overall ERA.
Garland has been recieving run support of 4.20 runs on the road

Lopez has an overall record of 9 - 3 and his team is 11 - 4 in his starts. Lopez averages an ERA of 3.09
In his last 3 starts Lopez is a perfect 3-0 with an ERA of 3.0
Out of the 7 games Lopez has started at home he has a record of 4 - 1 while his team is 6 - 1
His ERA at home is 3.06
Lopez has been recieving run support of 5.29 runs per game at home.

In 58 innings pitched by Garland he has walked 22
In 50 games pitched by Lopez he has walked 11

This i think will be significant as White Sox are much more prone at commiting errors. Throw in the excellent base running by Baltimore and this may result in a couple of runs for Orioles.

WhiteSox bullpen has an ERA of 5.17 on the road while
Baltimore bullpen has an ERA of 2.91 at home.

White Sox for the season are averaging 0.266 against RHP
Orioles for the season are averaging 0.253 against RHP

In last 10 games
White Sox are averaging 0.260 against RHP
Orioles are averaging 0.263 against RHP


Note: Garland did have an excellent game against Orioles last time out. But this game was in Chicago.

White Sox have never seen Lopez while Orioles batters have seen Garland before and I am sure they must have gone over the tapes to make sure they hit him this time.


I think Baltimore good play in this situation. The run line is tempting but will stick with the moneyline.


Good luck to all
Cheers !!!
Spock
 
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TheShrimp

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Spock said:
3
White Sox have never seen Lopez while Orioles batters have seen Garland before and I am sure they must have gone over the tapes to make sure they hit him this time.
They saw him for two innings of relief earlier in the year, but the point is still the same.

He's got some great stuff and has shown an ability to SHUT DOWN some good teams this year.

I've got a lean on the O's. I like a bit bigger of a mismatch when laying that much. Also on the over. Defensive probs on both sides.
 

Spock

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thanx Shrimp. U r right.

White Sox have not had a good look at him in terms of innings.

I thought a lot about this game before laying down that kind of price.

But I think Orioles get this one.

Cheers and good luck on ur picks
Spock
 
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Spock

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Rummel:

Only reason I do not play Toront runline is because their bull pen has a tendency to give up some runs late and make games close.

Also its hard to play a runline on a team which is at home. If they are leading by one run they dont bat the bottom of the ninth inning. That can be trouble for the runline. Just somethin to keep in mind.

Good luck on the play though.
Cheers !!!
Spock


# Yankee's +1.5 looks like a good play. The Under looks good also. Waitin till game time for the Ump info for the total.
 

Spock

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Adding :

4. Houston +133 :mad:

Have to see how Cruz will be. No time for writeup as have to get a lot of work done at the job. I think the price is good for one of the good hitting teams in recent times. Houston came back from a 2-0 deficit in the 8'th inning to beat Milwaukee yesterday. Shows that the team wanna win. Cubs bull pen is suspect. I think good value in this play.


Also leaning towards :

Yankees +1.5
Yankees Under 7.5
Atlanta Under 8.5
Cleveland Over
Montreal @ Florida Under
(had typed Over by mistake in the Florida game)

Cheers !!!
Spock
 
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Rummel

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Spock:

Know it?s quite risky playing a hometeam with runline, but I find value even though.

Don?t have any thoughts about Yankees, yet. GL with all your picks even though I belive Baltimore is a bit risky. Not makeing any bet there. The Seattle game looks like a good under play.

Have a nice day!:jump:
 

grooven

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The dark side of the Moon
TAMPA BAY is 18-55 (-28.1 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.7, OPPONENT 5.5
TAMPA BAY is 14-43 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive home games since 1997.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.9, OPPONENT 5.7
TAMPA BAY is 4-17 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.5, OPPONENT 5.7
TAMPA BAY is 11-35 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games without turning a double play since 1997.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.0, OPPONENT 5.7
TAMPA BAY is 3-16 (-12.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive games as a home underdog this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.3, OPPONENT 5.1
TAMPA BAY is 13-42 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive home games since 1997.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.9, OPPONENT 5.7
TAMPA BAY is 7-26 (-16.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 4.9
TAMPA BAY is 1-13 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive games as a home underdog this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.6, OPPONENT 4.9
TAMPA BAY is 14-46 (-25.4 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.6, OPPONENT 5.5
TAMPA BAY is 1-7 (-5.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9
TAMPA BAY is 0-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive games as a home underdog this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.3, OPPONENT 4.9
TAMPA BAY is 1-7 (-5.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a one run loss this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.9, OPPONENT 5.6
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 (-6.9 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.3, OPPONENT 6.6
TAMPA BAY is 1-6 (-4.9 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.3, OPPONENT 6.4
TAMPA BAY is 1-7 (-5.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on artificial turf this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1
TAMPA BAY is 1-13 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.6
TAMPA BAY is 1-13 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.6
TAMPA BAY is 2-14 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.4, OPPONENT 6.1
TAMPA BAY is 6-25 (-16.5 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over a 3 game span this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.7, OPPONENT 5.8
KENNEDY is 0-8 (-8.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 3.4, OPPONENT 6.8
KENNEDY is 1-7 (-6.0 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.6
KENNEDY is 0-7 (-7.0 Units) against the money line when his team is off 3 or more consecutive losses this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 2.6, OPPONENT 5.1
TORONTO is 51-25 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in home games after 6 or more consecutive home games since 1997.
The average score was TORONTO 5.5, OPPONENT 4.4
TORONTO is 8-3 (+8.2 Units) against the money line after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals this season.
The average score was TORONTO 5.0, OPPONENT 3.9
TORONTO is 6-1 (+5.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a one run win this season.
The average score was TORONTO 6.3, OPPONENT 3.9
TORONTO is 16-7 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
The average score was TORONTO 5.5, OPPONENT 3.9
TORONTO is 8-2 (+7.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by 2 runs or less this season.
The average score was TORONTO 6.4, OPPONENT 4.0
TORONTO is 6-2 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in home games in July games this season.
The average score was TORONTO 5.5, OPPONENT 4.1
TORONTO is 6-2 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TORONTO 5.5, OPPONENT 4.1
TORONTO is 22-9 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in home games off a one run win over a division rival since 1997.
The average score was TORONTO 5.7, OPPONENT 4.1
TORONTO is 6-2 (+6.8 Units) against the money line vs. division opponents this season.
The average score was TORONTO 5.5, OPPONENT 4.1
TORONTO is 20-9 (+12.4 Units) against the money line with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 5.7, OPPONENT 4.7
TORONTO is 43-24 (+20.6 Units) against the money line with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 5.8, OPPONENT 4.9
TORONTO is 26-11 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 15 games since 1997.
The average score was TORONTO 6.6, OPPONENT 5.3
TORONTO is 9-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.000 the last 5 games this season.
The average score was TORONTO 6.7, OPPONENT 4.6
LOAIZA is 8-2 (+6.2 Units) against the money line in home games when his team is off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOAIZA 6.7, OPPONENT 4.1
LOAIZA is 6-1 (+6.9 Units) against the money line when his team is off a win this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOAIZA 8.9, OPPONENT 5.3
 

Spock

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man .. thats a lot of stats and trends grooven .. thanx

went thru the list and at least those stats favor Toronto ..

hope they come thru :D
 

Spock

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Believing that Houston @ Cubs game will go Over ..

Taking Over 7.5 :mad:

No time for write up ..

Good luck
Spock
 
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Spock

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Horrible start to this friday .. How can Houston manage 2 hits in the entire game .. just fuxin unbelievable .. same goes for Cubs 2 .. :mad:


Lets see if we can get back on track

Adding :

CWS @ Baltimore Under 9 :mad:
Atlanta @ Philly Under 8.5 :D
Montreal @ Florida Under 8 :D
New York Mets ML :D
St. Louis @ Pittsburg Under 9 :mad:
TB @ Toronto Under 9 :mad:


Good luck to all

Cheers !!!
Spock
 
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Spock

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mark .. played the Baltimore and Toronto Unders small .. am already on the ML on Toronto and Baltimore ..

it looks like the Unders are destroyed in both the games
 
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