- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 130-92-7 (+45.3)
OU: 70-59-2 (+3.8)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)
Spurs
The Spurs have just two more games remaining on their road trip before they go back to Texas for a long homestand. In their last ten road games, they are 9-1 SU (+8.8) and 6-4 ATS, including winning their last 5 (4 of which were against opponents with winning records). I think they would like to finish this road trip strong. This portion of the season is important. It is demoralizing to other teams that may be future playoff foes to beat them on their home court.
Teams playing their third game in four days at home as a dog against a conference opponent are 16-53 SU (-8 ppg) and 24-44-1 ATS when their last game was at home and their opponent is coming off a road game. Since the 2004 season, teams coming off a 15+ point win are 42-31 SU and 45-27 ATS when they average more than 102 points per game and their opponent gives up between 98 and 102 points per game, when the line is between -3 and 3. Teams playing on the road as a favorite coming off a road win when they were winning the game by 15 or more at halftime are 34-13 SU (+5.4) and 26-17 ATS when their opponent is also coming off a win. When the game went over the total, in this same situation teams are 17-5 SU (+7.6) and 14-6 ATS. In other words, they are clicking offensively and their opponent probably isn't going to do much to stop that.
Since the 2008 season, the Spurs are 15-0 SU (+15.3) and 11-4 ATS against the Warriors, averaging 112.3 points against them and beating them by an average margin of 15.3 points per game. Can the Warriors beat the Spurs for the first time since the 2007 season? Since the 2000 season, dogs that cover a line of +3 win the game 88.3% of the time, so don?t take the Warriors unless you think they can win this game.
I think the Spurs are just playing too good right now for this Warriors squad that cannot string together a good defensive game for a full 48 minutes. If you lapse against the Spurs, they make you pay. The Warriors are in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency, and their last five games they have been even worse, posting numbers on par with Orlando and Sacramento?s defense. Further, the Warriors live and die by the jump shot. True, they are one of the best jump shooting teams, but if you play against a defense that challenges shots well or have a tough shooting night, that is not a formula for success. The Warriors are second to last in the league at getting shots at the rim, and sixth in the league at taking bad shots (16-23 foot jumpers). The Spurs are fourth in the league at forcing opponents into bad shots.
Lack of rest has not been an issue for this veteran team with a deep bench, so I'm not worried about the back to back. The Spurs are 9-0 SU (+15.2 ppg) and ATS as a road favorite in their last nine (all since the end of last season) after a game in which they shot better than 55% from the field.
Hawks
The Kings are traveling from Sacramento to Atlanta to start a five game road trip, after losing at home to the Spurs. Since the 2000 season, teams coming off a home loss where they covered the spread are 2-15 SU and 5-11 ATS when playing as a road dog between 5 and 10 points against an opponent coming off a home loss. Teams from the west coast that are rested and playing their first game on the road against a team from the eastern time zone are 37-61 ATS when playing as a dog and their opponent is coming off a home loss.
The Kings have not been too interested in playing defense this season, and that shouldn?t change tonight. Teams playing on the road as a dog between 3 and 10 points are 21-79 SU (-8.1 ppg) and 34-63-3 ATS whey give up 6 or more points above what their opponent averages on the season, and they are on a 2 or more game OVER streak. If you also factor in that the Hawks are coming off a home loss, these numbers sharpen to 4-19 SU (-11.1) and 6-17 ATS (as well as 18-5 O/U). Since the 2005 season, teams seeking same season revenge for a home loss as a road dog between 3 and 10 points are 16-69 SU (-8.9 ppg) and 30-51-4 ATS when they are coming off a loss where they covered the spread.
The Hawks are tentatively holding on to the sixth spot in the East, with a resurgent Celtics team nipping at their heals. Each of their remaining 14 home games is very important for them, where they have been less than dominant and have dropped three of their last four. Teams coming off a 13+ point home loss playing on 1 day of rest as a home favorite of 5 or more points (avg line -8) are 39-7 SU (+9.8) and 29-15-2 ATS since the 2009 season. The Hawks have beaten the Kings nine straight times. Since the 2008 season, they have averaged 51% from the field in all their meetings. Home favorites this season that shoot better than 50% from the field are an unsurprising spread covering machine, at 119-22 ATS, winning by an average of 15.2 ppg. The Hawks are average 49.6% from the field this season after a loss, when playing at home. I am looking for a good solid offensive outing from them tonight.
The Hawks need to take care of business tonight in Atlanta before they head out on a six game road trip. Most importantly, they are going to be wearing some throwbacks tonight, and you just can?t bet against that!
Magic...or lack of
One of the Magic?s injured players, either Al Harrington or Jameer Nelson will have to dress for the game tonight in Memphis just to give the Magic the minimum required 8 players on the bench. Without Nelson, Harrington, Turkoglu, Big Baby Davis, and now that white guy from Duke, I will be surprised if the Magic score more than 80 points against a good defensive team in the Grizzlies, that is giving up only 87.5 points per game at home this season.
Suns
Until the Celtics prove that they can beat a western conference opponent on the road, I?ll continue to fade them. The Suns have been playing a lot better recently, and I actually like watching them. They do a lot of good things on the floor and play good team ball. I don?t think they are as bad as their record, and Scola should have a good game tonight with the Celtics lacking bigs.
Hawks -8
Spurs -3
Suns +2
Rockets +2 x2
Hawks-Kings OVER 202
Knicks-Raptors UNDER 194
Magic TT UNDER 86.5
Good luck...
OU: 70-59-2 (+3.8)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)
Spurs
The Spurs have just two more games remaining on their road trip before they go back to Texas for a long homestand. In their last ten road games, they are 9-1 SU (+8.8) and 6-4 ATS, including winning their last 5 (4 of which were against opponents with winning records). I think they would like to finish this road trip strong. This portion of the season is important. It is demoralizing to other teams that may be future playoff foes to beat them on their home court.
Teams playing their third game in four days at home as a dog against a conference opponent are 16-53 SU (-8 ppg) and 24-44-1 ATS when their last game was at home and their opponent is coming off a road game. Since the 2004 season, teams coming off a 15+ point win are 42-31 SU and 45-27 ATS when they average more than 102 points per game and their opponent gives up between 98 and 102 points per game, when the line is between -3 and 3. Teams playing on the road as a favorite coming off a road win when they were winning the game by 15 or more at halftime are 34-13 SU (+5.4) and 26-17 ATS when their opponent is also coming off a win. When the game went over the total, in this same situation teams are 17-5 SU (+7.6) and 14-6 ATS. In other words, they are clicking offensively and their opponent probably isn't going to do much to stop that.
Since the 2008 season, the Spurs are 15-0 SU (+15.3) and 11-4 ATS against the Warriors, averaging 112.3 points against them and beating them by an average margin of 15.3 points per game. Can the Warriors beat the Spurs for the first time since the 2007 season? Since the 2000 season, dogs that cover a line of +3 win the game 88.3% of the time, so don?t take the Warriors unless you think they can win this game.
I think the Spurs are just playing too good right now for this Warriors squad that cannot string together a good defensive game for a full 48 minutes. If you lapse against the Spurs, they make you pay. The Warriors are in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency, and their last five games they have been even worse, posting numbers on par with Orlando and Sacramento?s defense. Further, the Warriors live and die by the jump shot. True, they are one of the best jump shooting teams, but if you play against a defense that challenges shots well or have a tough shooting night, that is not a formula for success. The Warriors are second to last in the league at getting shots at the rim, and sixth in the league at taking bad shots (16-23 foot jumpers). The Spurs are fourth in the league at forcing opponents into bad shots.
Lack of rest has not been an issue for this veteran team with a deep bench, so I'm not worried about the back to back. The Spurs are 9-0 SU (+15.2 ppg) and ATS as a road favorite in their last nine (all since the end of last season) after a game in which they shot better than 55% from the field.
Hawks
The Kings are traveling from Sacramento to Atlanta to start a five game road trip, after losing at home to the Spurs. Since the 2000 season, teams coming off a home loss where they covered the spread are 2-15 SU and 5-11 ATS when playing as a road dog between 5 and 10 points against an opponent coming off a home loss. Teams from the west coast that are rested and playing their first game on the road against a team from the eastern time zone are 37-61 ATS when playing as a dog and their opponent is coming off a home loss.
The Kings have not been too interested in playing defense this season, and that shouldn?t change tonight. Teams playing on the road as a dog between 3 and 10 points are 21-79 SU (-8.1 ppg) and 34-63-3 ATS whey give up 6 or more points above what their opponent averages on the season, and they are on a 2 or more game OVER streak. If you also factor in that the Hawks are coming off a home loss, these numbers sharpen to 4-19 SU (-11.1) and 6-17 ATS (as well as 18-5 O/U). Since the 2005 season, teams seeking same season revenge for a home loss as a road dog between 3 and 10 points are 16-69 SU (-8.9 ppg) and 30-51-4 ATS when they are coming off a loss where they covered the spread.
The Hawks are tentatively holding on to the sixth spot in the East, with a resurgent Celtics team nipping at their heals. Each of their remaining 14 home games is very important for them, where they have been less than dominant and have dropped three of their last four. Teams coming off a 13+ point home loss playing on 1 day of rest as a home favorite of 5 or more points (avg line -8) are 39-7 SU (+9.8) and 29-15-2 ATS since the 2009 season. The Hawks have beaten the Kings nine straight times. Since the 2008 season, they have averaged 51% from the field in all their meetings. Home favorites this season that shoot better than 50% from the field are an unsurprising spread covering machine, at 119-22 ATS, winning by an average of 15.2 ppg. The Hawks are average 49.6% from the field this season after a loss, when playing at home. I am looking for a good solid offensive outing from them tonight.
The Hawks need to take care of business tonight in Atlanta before they head out on a six game road trip. Most importantly, they are going to be wearing some throwbacks tonight, and you just can?t bet against that!
Magic...or lack of
One of the Magic?s injured players, either Al Harrington or Jameer Nelson will have to dress for the game tonight in Memphis just to give the Magic the minimum required 8 players on the bench. Without Nelson, Harrington, Turkoglu, Big Baby Davis, and now that white guy from Duke, I will be surprised if the Magic score more than 80 points against a good defensive team in the Grizzlies, that is giving up only 87.5 points per game at home this season.
Suns
Until the Celtics prove that they can beat a western conference opponent on the road, I?ll continue to fade them. The Suns have been playing a lot better recently, and I actually like watching them. They do a lot of good things on the floor and play good team ball. I don?t think they are as bad as their record, and Scola should have a good game tonight with the Celtics lacking bigs.
Hawks -8
Spurs -3
Suns +2
Rockets +2 x2
Hawks-Kings OVER 202
Knicks-Raptors UNDER 194
Magic TT UNDER 86.5
Good luck...
