Going Bowling

lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
TCU(-1) over California (1*)
- - If someone was asking "What is the team you never seem to get right?" over the last 5 or so years, I know what my answer would be: Cal. Extra frustrating when they are "one of my teams" because of connections to the Bay Area, and because I believe I do fairly well overall with the Pac-12 conference . . .

GL
 

lostinamerica

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2018-2019 NCAA Bowls YTD: 3-3 (-0.30*)

Iowa State(+3)(-115) over Washington State (1*)
- - Ticks a lot of boxes for me . . . Cougars were on a Rose Bowl trajectory all year and have to be disappointed to be relegated to a Friday night lights contest in Texas against Iowa State. The dog has a defense that held 10 of 12 opponents below their season average in points and yards, and a rushing attack featuring stud running back David Montgomery. After a 1-3 start, a surging Iowa State team that battled injuries has now gotten healthier, and can get to 9 wins and equal the most in program history, and finish ranked in the polls for the first time since 2000 (and only the second time ever). And I favor the Iowa State coaching staff when there has been extra time to prepare.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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2018-2019 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 5-4 (+0.60*)

2018 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 98-109 (-22.09*)

2018 NFL Regular Season YTD: 78-61 (+12.04*)

Overall: 181-174 (-9.45*)

* It would have been the third time ever for Iowa State finishing ranked in the polls.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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South Carolina(-3)(-125) over Virginia (1*)
- - I'm confident the Gamecocks at their best would merit my play. It appears they are seriously banged up, and I don't really have any feel or insight for how they will be impacted, but I should expect a spirited effort.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Arkansas State(+1') over Nevada (1*)
- - I'm not usually prepared for matchups like this early in the Bowl season, while I usually give everything a look as the Bowl season is winding down. Looking at this game, a case can surely be made that the wrong team is favored. And I also looked at "stealing" a play from elsewhere on OV56', but it's hard to justify risking two units here. So after I even thought about building a teaser, I'll stick with cheering for just one team of Wolves to do all the scoring.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Notre Dame(+11) over Clemson (1*)
- - The Clemson pedigree is strong in this spot and I've benefited in such spots. This year's squad seems to be built in the same mold and has been trending well . . . But Notre Dame has impressed me all season and I'm believing they have a real shot at pulling off a stunner.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Alabama(-14) over Oklahoma (1*)
- - I gotta bring up the fact that in a lifetime of capping football games, during the past month I have NEVER heard anything like the frequency with which the term "stops" has been used so often by so many different people about one game. But a month ago, "stops" is exactly the first scenario that skewed my analysis of this matchup, so I'm not knocking the fact . . . Simply put, I've seen plenty from both of these teams all year, and I can't see this culminating playoff/championship style moment unfolding without a significant disparity in stops (including turnovers) so that I would be seeing value lying with the dog.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2018-2019 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 6-8 (-2.95*)
2018 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 98-109 (-22.09*)
2018 NFL Regular Season YTD: 88-63 (+19.74*)

1-4 on Saturday, and two of the games were not close, which are the games that usually have me bummed. But what's unusual is that the game that has me absolutely seeing red is an inconsequential game that I had capped correctly until Arkansas State threw up all over themselves, repeatedly, in possibly the most aggravating result of the season.
http://www.cleveland19.com/2018/12/29/nevada-beats-arkansas-state-ot-arizona-bowl

Texas A&M(-7) over North Carolina State (1.50*)
- - Jimbo Fisher sure appears to be laying a foundation in College Station to something that is certainly better than what came before, and much like Dan Mullen at Florida, Fisher knows a proper culmination to this season can be a big piece of the project. My money is on Fisher having his charges motivated and prepared for this trip to Florida with the better and battle tested team out of the SEC.
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/co...-win-vs-nc-state-could-could-signify-texas-am

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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2018-2019 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 9-9 (-0.56*)

Iowa(+7) over Mississippi State (1*)
- - 10-2 ATS on my posted Iowa wagers for the season (only wrong on -3' vs. Iowa State and +3 vs. Wisconsin; had the right game day lines in the Penn State and Purdue contests) . . . After the early season it was my frequent opinion that the Iowa defense was somewhat overrated and the Iowa offense somewhat underrated, but at the end of the year I?m really not so sure how true that is. I do believe it has been a season of major disappointment as this squad had the potential to be special. But the Hawkeyes have landed in a New Year?s Day Bowl against an SEC opponent that gives them a meaningful final chance at demonstrating their potential. Maybe they greatly disappoint, I sort of expect them to find a way to come up a little short against a strong opponent that became a lot less one dimensional on offense down the stretch, but as a dog today they are definitely my side.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Kentucky(+5') over Penn State (1*)
- - McSorley at QB has saved Penn State from a season of either huge disappointment or underachievement, and I have not deviated from that opinion thru viewing after viewing. Kentucky lacks an explosive element, but they are as good as the 9-3 SEC East record they earned, and they pose specific matchups that an opponent needs to counter. I think a highly motivated Kentucky program can limit McSorley and will make this a great game at their end.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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LSU(-7)(-120) over Central Florida (1*)
- - I'm not sure how good LSU is, but their motivation in this Bowl game is much like the new regimes at Florida and Texas A&M in recent days, and far removed from the disappointed Auburn team that was whipped by Central Florida last year. I also think this Central Florida squad is a couple full notches below last year's squad and isn't infused with the same intangibles, and I like the SEC power here.

GL
 
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