heck, I've bet and posted here to a 102-72 ATS record in just NCAAFB alone this season! (less said about the NFL record, and the chump change, the better
)but this system I'm working might just be better at 10 or so 'best bets'- which would be much easier to work and post, for sure...
and one advantage of spreading "it across that many plays" is that the risk is spread also, the roller coaster ride top and down is less.
Yup, echoing the Moran from Colorado, I started my sportsbetting education years ago reading pieces from J. R. Miller:
"Professional sports bettors, by comparison, rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 57 or 58 percent, and it's often as low as 54 or 55 percent. People find that hard to believe, and they understandably get even more skeptical when told that, for a genuine professional-level sports bettor, a long term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high.
That last paragraph sounds crazy at first, but as crazy as it may seem there is a simple explanation: If a bettor has five bets on a given day, risking $110 to win $100 on each bet, and wins three of them, that's a great winning ratio of 60% and a net profit for the day of 80 dollars. (The bettor wins $300 and loses 220 dollars.) If another bettor has fourteen bets on that same day, risking $110 to win $100 on each one, and wins eight of them, that's a much poorer winning percentage of only 57%, - but almost twice as much profit for the day of 140 dollars. (The bettor wins $800 and loses 660 dollars.)
The second bettor was not necessarily less skilled at picking winners than the first bettor; the second bettor may simply have chosen to apply all his advantages - including those which had less than a 60% chance of winning in the first place. If the ultimate goal is to make money, it is obvious which of those two bettors was more successful. The real goal is, of course, to make money. The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets, but the relative amount of profit he made over any given period of time.
Although there are, indeed, propositions that offer more than a 60% expectation of winning, such propositions are relatively few and far between, and are only a very small part of the overall picture. With the break-even point at about 53%, genuine professional bettors know there is no tenable excuse to pass up propositions offering expectations of higher than, say, 55 percent. A small advantage applied over and over is awesomely effective."
