Cincinnati(-125 ML) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- - My first really in depth capping of Cinci didn't happen until their matchup against Virginia Tech in last year's Orange Bowl. I remember a lot of excellent cappers really unloading on what they saw was going to be a coming out party for Tony Pike and Brian Kelly's Bearcats, and that my research found a lot of reasons to see that side of the game, but in the end I also found plenty of reasons to support my initial take that VT(+2') was a live dog. Despite suffering a 7-20 loss that made my VT wager a winner, I came away from that game very much thinking Cinci was on the rise, notwithstanding some serious losses on defense that would need to be addressed . . . A year later and I'm only 2-3 ATS with my wagers involving Bearcat's games this year (1-1 ATS on Pittsburgh games), but Kelly and Co. have been followed on my radar more closely this season than all but maybe 15 or 20 teams max . . . From a post I found very credible on another forum, "right now some of the bigger groups took the Beavers +10 and Cinnci -1. Only NFL game that I know that has major play was SD at opening #. AZ will get some love if Warner starts as well and I'd expect Skins to be hit Sun am." FWIW, I was on or leaning to all of those plays before receiving what I viewed as some positive reinforcement . . . While I was tempted to make this a Top Play with a wager of something more than 1 unit, I have to concede there are enough cautionary aspects that I decided the play was not sufficiently worthy of unloading (the first real December weather game, on a slow and notoriously iffy track at Heinz field, plus whatever distractions are generated by the Notre Dame situation, off a sensational and emotional senior day return by QB Pike for supersub QB Collaros, against a home rushing dog that can have some success chilling Pike and Co. on the sideline, and an opponent that has just as much on the line in a bounceback opportunity on senior day after being frustrated by their biggest backyard rival). Nevertheless, my cash is squarely on the Bearcats not getting turned away in a huge game against Wannstedt after getting this far.
GL