Hedge question..........

[yyz]

How many times do we see this posted here?

A guy hits however many teams early, and has that "one last game" to hit for the big payday.


"What should I do, guys???????" :shrug:


Does anyone else get tired of seeing this shit?


Why did you make the stinking parlay, if you were going to "hedge" if it made it to the last game? Why didn't you just leave the last game off, and already have "won" the damned thing?????


You guys are a hoot, and I'm bored with another Sunday Night Snoozer on NBC!

 

[Nole]

Don't even get me started on this topic. I've NEVER understood the hedge when making a parlay. That's part of the fun, sweating out the parlay and then, if all goes well, it was worth the wait. If not, you had a shot at a nice pay-out and you're only out a few bucks.


I'm sure others will disagree but it's MHO.


nole

 

[tpaine07]

I can see hedging if you have a massive parlay, but not on a 4-5 teamer or whatever, say you throw a 10 or 12 teamer out there and have a locked in profit of like 1k + for the hit, i'd def hedge.

 

[vinnie]

 

[vinnie]

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

agree you shouldn't hedge a parlay

believe 100% you should hedge futures bets

also.....if you stumbled upon this place and have any clue you should be able to figure out the basic mathematics of hedging anything


gl

 

[smurphy]

I like the guys who already know exactly what they will do, but post a poll asking what to do anyway so as to make sure everyone gets yet another opportunity to see what a great capper they are.

 

[IX_Bender]

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I like the guys who already know exactly what they will do, but post a poll asking what to do anyway so as to make sure everyone gets yet another opportunity to see what a great capper they are.

I don't know, I really enjoy the recaps on their hedge plays.

I always hedge the last play of the parlay. When I place the bet, it's not like I expect to be in that position.

 

[vinnie]

 

[vinnie]

 

[vinnie]

 

[acehistr8]

Sorry I guess I dont see the problem with hedging a parlay.

If you lay $300/$1800 on a 3 team parlay and you hit the first two, why wouldnt you at least lock in some profit? I enjoy locked in profits myself and will certainly do it on the last game of any parlay over 3 teams and probably half the time on 3 teamers.

 

[yyz]

Sorry I guess I dont see the problem with hedging a parlay.

If you lay $300/$1800 on a 3 team parlay and you hit the first two, why wouldnt you at least lock in some profit? I enjoy locked in profits myself and will certainly do it on the last game of any parlay over 3 teams and probably half the time on 3 teamers.

How much would your hedge be for, and why?

 

[MadJack]

yyz, it depends but you would too given this scene.

you have 7 in out of 8 and are

Risking:$100 To Win:$17544.64

you're hedging, plain and simple.

 

[yyz]

yyz, it depends but you would too given this scene.

you have 7 in out of 8 and are

Risking:$100 To Win:$17544.64

you're hedging, plain and simple.

A) I don't have enough money to make a hedge worth the salt for that parlay.

B) I don't make parlays keying on a late game, for that sole reason.


It seems like so many guys make parlays with a late game JUST so they can hedge! I say, make one less wager, and be a winner already!

 

[MadJack]

okay, $10 to win $1700, whatever, you're hedging.

i have found myself in that position because i wasn't paying attention to the times of the games but i'm stupid about gambling on sports anyway :SIB

 

[acehistr8]

Why? To lock in a guaranteed win. I've hedged as much as a full half if circumstances (players out, weather etc) have changed outright - but that is rare. Lets say I make a play late last week and one of my parlay lines is the over in tonights game. But come Monday night if its the last thing I'm waiting on to hit and suddenly its 30 degrees with 40 mph winds and the total has fallen 4 or 5 points - I will strongly consider a hedge.

Otherwise its simple math over the long term. A 2 teamer only pays 2.6 to one - as for your question on why not only play 2. In the above example thats $300/$780 win. If I hedge half of my locked in win on a 3 teamer thats $900 - depending on the side and juice at most you are $990/$900 on your hedge worst case. Lose your hedge - and win the parlay - and your profit is still $810 (1800-990 bet) which is $30 greater than the two teamer. Profit wise you lock in a minimum win of 2.7*

Sometimes in rare cases I will hedge a side if a middle has presented itself. If the last team on my card is say at +3.5 but by gametime I can find a 2.5 on the other side. Beted has been a great source for this.

Anyway, I know that to a lot of people that sounds like a dumb thing to do or a lot of work to lock in a 170% profit - and thats fine - but in some cases I am glad to do it and I feel it pays off over the long term. Watching the last game of your parlay giong down the tubes isnt "fun" or "cool" or "a rush" to me. If I still feel strongly about my side I may only hedge a little. But as for making money in the long term I will take advantage of heding whenever I can.

 

[yyz]

Ace, you only gave one of your possible outcomes, though. You can't discount the other.

The second outcome is win the hedge, and lose the parlay! You get 1,890 back, but have to subtract the 990 you bet, and the 300 you lost on the parlay, for a profit of only $600.

$600 is $180 less than the 2 team parlay payoff.


So, while I would win two 2 teamers, and profit $780 each time..........You would split, on average with the hedge, and average a $705 each time.

Your hedge costs you $75 each time you do it at that level.


Now, I can see someone hedging if they get a break like you mentioned in the spread, etc. If they had the "under 51 1/2" tonight, and the total went to 48 at kick off........Hey! You have a shot at a middle. I don't know if it's worth giving up 25%, but that's the bettor's decision.

But to make a parlay with a key game at the end, "just in case I make it that far........." is an expensive proposition.

 

[acehistr8]

You're right, sorry, had been drinking for too long last night when I wrote that. Of course my math is all fvcked up.