Here's my GOY. Not sure I've ever said that before.

[MadJack]

I wasn't going to bet anymore this year but things change with an opportunity like this one. I spent a good amount of time looking at this game and I'm done looking because I'm not changing my mind. I'm all for opposing opinions posted in this thread but I highly doubt you can change my mind. If you can change my mind and you save me a lot of money, kudos to you, because I am unloading.

Panthers beat them in SF. I don't buy the revenge angle.
This is SF 3rd away game in a row. Coast to coast trip yet.
CAR home.
CAR 7-1 at home.
CAR bye week plenty of rest.
SF off tough physical game.
CAR allows 15ppg and SF 20ppg.
CAR only allows 86 rushing per game, SF allows 124.

This is the type game where the best defense wins and with CAR at home, with rest, with the place rocking, and SF on their 3rd road trip in a row after the tough game yesterday, I can't see the 49ers coming away with a win. Not to mention the Panthers really should be a 3 point fave here and will be getting a point or 2. Yeah, SF has won 7 in a row but CAR has won 9 of the last 10 with the only loss coming @NO. You like fading the public? This will be a great spot to do so because everybody and their mother will be taking the 49ers especially after yesterday's win.

I don't think the 9ers have a chance and I had quit betting for the year but I am definitely reloading and taking the Panthers in another all in bet to win this one.

I'm waiting to bet because if Auburn covers tonight I get 3rd place in the College Bowl Contest and that will save me from reloading with my own funds.

Good luck!

 

[william13]

I wasn't going to bet anymore this year but things change with an opportunity like this one. I spent a good amount of time looking at this game and I'm done looking because I'm not changing my mind. I'm all for opposing opinions posted in this thread but I highly doubt you can change my mind. If you can change my mind and you save me a lot of money, kudos to you, because I am unloading.

Panthers beat them in SF. I don't buy the revenge angle.
This is SF 3rd away game in a row. Coast to coast trip yet.
CAR home.
CAR 7-1 at home.
CAR bye week plenty of rest.
SF off tough physical game.
CAR allows 15ppg and SF 20ppg.
CAR only allows 86 rushing per game, SF allows 124.

This is the type game where the best defense wins and with CAR at home, with rest, with the place rocking, and SF on their 3rd road trip in a row after the tough game yesterday, I can't see the 49ers coming away with a win. Not to mention the Panthers really should be a 3 point fave here and will be getting a point or 2. Yeah, SF has won 7 in a row but CAR has won 9 of the last 10 with the only loss coming @NO. You like fading the public? This will be a great spot to do so because everybody and their mother will be taking the 49ers especially after yesterday's win.

I don't think the 9ers have a chance and I had quit betting for the year but I am definitely reloading and taking the Panthers in another all in bet to win this one.

I'm waiting to bet because if Auburn covers tonight I get 3rd place in the College Bowl Contest and that will save me from reloading with my own funds.

Good luck!

like it ,
going to tease them +9 myself still making up mind on other team ... same reason as you mention and in my opinion better qb . one of biggest thing I look at redzone scoring and Carolina is much better .
they will be fresh and I'm sure been game planning for 49ers all last week plenty of time to throw some wrinkles in the game plan . 49ers will be same old plan .. run the old man go from there .....

another reason vegas see revenge and use this to their advantage that's why in my opinion 49ers are fav public will ride it ...

good luck with your first ever GOY ... william13

 

[william13]

like it ,
going to tease them +9 myself still making up mind on other team ... same reason as you mention and in my opinion better qb . one of biggest thing I look at redzone scoring and Carolina is much better .
they will be fresh and I'm sure been game planning for 49ers all last week plenty of time to throw some wrinkles in the game plan . 49ers will be same old plan .. run the old man go from there .....

another reason vegas see revenge and use this to their advantage that's why in my opinion 49ers are fav public will ride it ...

good luck with your first ever GOY ... william13

forgot this ... Carolina d line will rule !

 

[The Joker]

 

[Jord20]

I wasn't going to bet anymore this year but things change with an opportunity like this one. I spent a good amount of time looking at this game and I'm done looking because I'm not changing my mind. I'm all for opposing opinions posted in this thread but I highly doubt you can change my mind. If you can change my mind and you save me a lot of money, kudos to you, because I am unloading.

Panthers beat them in SF. I don't buy the revenge angle.
This is SF 3rd away game in a row. Coast to coast trip yet.
CAR home.
CAR 7-1 at home.
CAR bye week plenty of rest.
SF off tough physical game.
CAR allows 15ppg and SF 20ppg.
CAR only allows 86 rushing per game, SF allows 124.

This is the type game where the best defense wins and with CAR at home, with rest, with the place rocking, and SF on their 3rd road trip in a row after the tough game yesterday, I can't see the 49ers coming away with a win. Not to mention the Panthers really should be a 3 point fave here and will be getting a point or 2. Yeah, SF has won 7 in a row but CAR has won 9 of the last 10 with the only loss coming @NO. You like fading the public? This will be a great spot to do so because everybody and their mother will be taking the 49ers especially after yesterday's win.

I don't think the 9ers have a chance and I had quit betting for the year but I am definitely reloading and taking the Panthers in another all in bet to win this one.

I'm waiting to bet because if Auburn covers tonight I get 3rd place in the College Bowl Contest and that will save me from reloading with my own funds.

Good luck!

If I may, just think about this... You are putting your money on Ron Rivera vs Jim Harbaugh... even if I loved Carolina - I couldn't do that to myself.

 

[elmer fudd]

:nono:

weather should be ok..not concerned about 3rd in a row on the road..dont believe they will let cam beat them running and he isn't much of a qb if he cant run..low scoring but 49ers win..:shrug:

 

[MadJack]

:nono:

weather should be ok..not concerned about 3rd in a row on the road..dont believe they will let cam beat them running and he isn't much of a qb if he cant run..low scoring but 49ers win..:shrug:

I don't have the stats available but if you think a 3rd away game in a row is not something important to consider, I think you're wrong and should apply at least some weight to that factor.

Anybody have the stats on teams W/L record on the 3rd away game in a row?

CAR has the better run defense so the same could be said about Kaepernick. CAR also leads the NFL for least amount of rushing TD's with only 4 vs SF giving up 11 on the ground. And it's pretty damn noisy to run an offense down there in the red zone on the road.

:0008

 

[MadJack]

If I may, just think about this... You are putting your money on Ron Rivera vs Jim Harbaugh... even if I loved Carolina - I couldn't do that to myself.

This point made me go and check the penalties each team has for the season. Gotta give the coaching some credit for running a team that doesn't get penalized, right?

CAR has 80 penalties for the season and SF has 103. 671 yards to 845 yards. I wonder how that difference converts to points scored, I have no idea. I bet it's an edge to Carolina.

If SF was playing in NE this week would you automatically give the nod to NE?

You guys are helping me think and I'm thinking I like Carolina even more now.

 

[Jord20]

This point made me go and check the penalties each team has for the season. Gotta give the coaching some credit for running a team that doesn't get penalized, right?

CAR has 80 penalties for the season and SF has 103. 671 yards to 845 yards. I wonder how that difference converts to points scored, I have no idea. I bet it's an edge to Carolina.

If SF was playing in NE this week would you automatically give the nod to NE?

You guys are helping me think and I'm thinking I like Carolina even more now.

Confirmation Bias

I don't base who I think is a good coach based on penalties. As to your NE example, I never said anywhere that I automatically bet the better coach. I just think this one is a complete mismatch... and in a playoff game, I hate to go against a coaching mismatch (but,this also doesn't mean that I will auto-play the better coach). I think rivera is totally outmatched here. What do you think about the coaches in this game?

At any rate, I hope this play loses (because I will be on SF)... but if it does win, I will be happy for you, and it will ease about 1% of my anger at my loss. Cheers, boss :toast:

 

[william13]

This point made me go and check the penalties each team has for the season. Gotta give the coaching some credit for running a team that doesn't get penalized, right?

CAR has 80 penalties for the season and SF has 103. 671 yards to 845 yards. I wonder how that difference converts to points scored, I have no idea. I bet it's an edge to Carolina.

If SF was playing in NE this week would you automatically give the nod to NE?

You guys are helping me think and I'm thinking I like Carolina even more now.

there is a reason they had a bye and a home playoff game ........ was sure you would have brought up and the COLTS beat'em ... lol...

 

[MadJack]

[/B]


Confirmation Bias

I don't base who I think is a good coach based on penalties. As to your NE example, I never said anywhere that I automatically bet the better coach. I just think this one is a complete mismatch... and in a playoff game, I hate to go against a coaching mismatch (but,this also doesn't mean that I will auto-play the better coach). I think rivera is totally outmatched here. What do you think about the coaches in this game?

At any rate, I hope this play loses (because I will be on SF)... but if it does win, I will be happy for you, and it will ease about 1% of my anger at my loss. Cheers, boss :toast:

Thanks for the feedback.

I agree Harbaugh is the better coach but I have nothing to base that on, I just 'think' he's the better coach and he probably is, like you say.

Why do you think Harbaugh is the better coach?

The reason I ask is because brother John gets a lot of praise on his coaching ability and I think he sucks. I know he sucks, as a matter of fact. And I base that on the decisions I see him make week after week after week. I follow every play of every game and feel qualified to make that judgement and I don't care what anybody says, he sucks. He's WAAAAY over-rated IMO.

Again, thanks for the feedback. I'm not gonna change your mind and you're not changing mine. Not yet anyway.

:toast:

 

[ormond80]

I honestly thought the line would be Panthers -2.5 maybe even 3
Panther P.S.L. Holder

 

[MadJack]

I honestly thought the line would be Panthers -2.5 maybe even 3
Panther P.S.L. Holder

That's what the figures say exactly. They couldn't do that, they would get way too much SF money. I think they already are getting too much SF the way it is. See what happens.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

I wasn't going to bet anymore this year !

You didn't say you were going to bet any less either!! j/k Jack :mj07:

Also we have to remember, Cincy was 8-0 this year at home, destroyed most teams, even though they didn't play anyone the Caliber of a Denver or KC or NEW ENG at home, and Carolina did beat SF in their house, that was how many weeks ago? Marvin Lewis' teams have won zero playoff games in round 1, now 0-5!

Ron Rivera has been to how many playoffs as a HC? Lots of pressure on Panthers, they did have rest, the weather should be tranquil in western Carolina and the Niners just played in sub zero temps and ground it out vs the Packers. Panthers have one of the best "D" in the NFL, however, 49ers "D" ain't too bad either, you have an experienced Kaep who's had two years now of PS experience, and Cam Newton who's had virtually no post-season experience except at Auburn.

Road travel, this and that about that, means nothing, these guys are professional athletes, the adrenaline gets going a lot different than the average boo boo bear fan like us, so I don't think that will have that affect on the 49ers, they are amped, they have been to the SB before, and they have momentum and yeah, revenge might be a motivator in this one, plus Jimmy is a lil better tactical coach than Ronnie boy!!

I have no dog in this fight just yet, and I was hoping Carolina would be a 2 1/2 or more fav so I could pounce on the 9'ers, but, I'll wait for the late steam to screw this one up just like it did for the Chefs vs Ponies!!

GL on it, I hope you nail your GOY!!

:0074

 

[MadJack]

You didn't say you were going to bet any less either!! j/k Jack :mj07:

Also we have to remember, Cincy was 8-0 this year at home, destroyed most teams, even though they didn't play anyone the Caliber of a Denver or KC or NEW ENG at home, and Carolina did beat SF in their house, that was how many weeks ago? Marvin Lewis' teams have won zero playoff games in round 1, now 0-5!

Ron Rivera has been to how many playoffs as a HC? Lots of pressure on Panthers, they did have rest, the weather should be tranquil in western Carolina and the Niners just played in sub zero temps and ground it out vs the Packers. Panthers have one of the best "D" in the NFL, however, 49ers "D" ain't too bad either, you have an experienced Kaep who's had two years now of PS experience, and Cam Newton who's had virtually no post-season experience except at Auburn.

Road travel, this and that about that, means nothing, these guys are professional athletes, the adrenaline gets going a lot different than the average boo boo bear fan like us, so I don't think that will have that affect on the 49ers, they are amped, they have been to the SB before, and they have momentum and yeah, revenge might be a motivator in this one, plus Jimmy is a lil better tactical coach than Ronnie boy!!

I have no dog in this fight just yet, and I was hoping Carolina would be a 2 1/2 or more fav so I could pounce on the 9'ers, but, I'll wait for the late steam to screw this one up just like it did for the Chefs vs Ponies!!

GL on it, I hope you nail your GOY!!

:0074

All these little things you guys are excusing all add up to a nice advantage for Carolina.

Anyway, I just looked her up.

And all I could find on her was "beer holder" :mj07:

 

[WildBillPicks7]

All these little things you guys are excusing all add up to a nice advantage for Carolina.

Anyway, I just looked her up.

And all I could find on her was "beer holder" :mj07:

Yep, she's a beer holder!! :mj07:

 

[Gold Rush]

Two Huge things your missing...in the first niner/carolina game Vernon Davis left early with injury...there was no Crabtree in that first meeting as well. Two of their biggest weapons not in that game..changes the whole dynamic of the 49er offense. Totally different offense with crabtree. Havnt lost since he has been back. They don't beat the packers either without him. Niners more experience, better coordinaters, Save your money, what's the stat getting thrown around ..6 of 8 last superbowl winners from the WC round ?, Niners win. sounds like your minds made up thoughopcorn2

 

[MadJack]

[/B]


Confirmation Bias

When I read your reply I saw this and didn't know what it meant but I didn't give it much thought, and I wasn't going to try and figure out what you meant because "Jord certainly doesn't think I'm biased".

Then somebody texted me and laughed because "Jord called you biased".

Since then, about an hour ago, I have thought about it several times and just came back in here now to read it again.

You think I'm biased. What in the world would make you think that? :lol:

 

[MadJack]

Two Huge things your missing...in the first niner/carolina game Vernon Davis left early with injury...there was no Crabtree in that first meeting as well. Two of their biggest weapons not in that game..changes the whole dynamic of the 49er offense. Totally different offense with crabtree. Havnt lost since he has been back. They don't beat the packers either without him. Niners more experience, better coordinaters, Save your money, what's the stat getting thrown around ..6 of 8 last superbowl winners from the WC round ?, Niners win. sounds like your minds made up thoughopcorn2

I agree that there would have been a different outcome had Crabtree played that game. I also believe that Carolina would have won that game by a wider margin had the game been played in Carolina after a bye week for them.

The more I look at this game the more I like Carolina. I know, I lied. I said I was done looking at the game but these good replies make me go look to defend my bet.

Check this out that I just found about the west coast teams playing the east coast teams in the east. opcorn2

http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nfl-west-coast-teams-traveling-east/

<header class="entry-header" style="margin: 0px 0px 2em; padding: 0px 0px 0.2em; border: 0px; font-family: 'Open Sans', HelveticaNeue, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: url(http://www.sportsinsights.com/wp-content/themes/agility/images/bkgs/stripes_tiny_08.png); color: rgb(68, 68, 68); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat;">[h=1]IS THERE A DISADVANTAGE FOR NFL WEST COAST TEAMS TRAVELING EAST?[/h]ARTICLES, NFL

by PJ on <time class="entry-date" datetime="2013-10-16T15:25:24+00:00" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">OCTOBER 16, 2013</time>​

</header> ↔
When making predictions, ranking fantasy football players or justifying betting decisions, experts love turning to generic theories to backup their opinions. However, when using these concepts, experts often conveniently forget to back these theories with data and statistics.
Over the last couple of years, we?ve taken it upon ourselves to do the legwork and prove whether mainstream theories are actually based in truth. For example, we busted the myth that cold weather means lower scoring and have also confirmed that NFL teams do play better when coming off a bye.
One trendy concept being used by the media is that NFL West Coast teams traveling eastsuffer declines in performance. It?s certainly reasonable to hypothesize that the combination of long flights, strange beds and time zone changes confuse internal body clocks and prevent players and teams from performing up to expectations.
With this in mind, we used our Bet Labs data analysis software to examine the theory of West Coast teams traveling east and determine just how truthful it is. To start, we had to first find a way to measure expected performance. Similar to our Monday Night Football analysis, we can?t use straight up wins and losses since they don?t provide a realistic measure of performance. For example, San Diego is traveling to Jacksonville this week as 7.5-point favorites. Since 2003, favorites of -7.5 and greater are 543-108 (83.4%) straight up, so concluding that a San Diego victory alone meant they met expectations would be incorrect.
Instead, we can use against the spread (ATS) records as a much better indicator. It?s safe to assume that the favorite in each matchup is ?expected? to be the better team and the actual size of the spread defines ?how much better? the favorite is expected to be. Therefore, we would define a 3-point Chargers victory as underperforming since they did not cover the spread. Conversely, a 10-point win would cover the 7.5-point spread, indicating that San Diego outperformed expectations and ?played well? against Jacksonville.
With our measure of performance defined, we compiled ATS records for the four NFL teams located in the Pacific Time Zone (San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Seattle Seahawks) when traveling to play in the Mountain, Central and Eastern Time Zones.
The table below displays the results, since 2005:

GAME TIME ZONE	ATS RECORD	ATS WIN RATE
Mountain	22-10	68.8%
Central	37-44	45.7%
Eastern	44-57	43.6%

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</tbody>

Interestingly, ATS performance of Pacific Time Zone teams gets progressively worse as they travel further east. Based on these results, we can conclude that West Coast teams don?t meet expectations and therefore ?play badly? when traveling to the East Coast.
While we have achieved our original goal by confirming this concept, we decided to now look at this from a betting theory perspective in order to learn how to take advantage going forward. Using the analysis above as a baseline, we also tested other scenarios and found that Pacific Time Zone teams traveling east perform even worse after covering the spread in their previous game.
The table below displays ATS records for Pacific Time Zone teams, coming off an ATS victory in their most recent game, dating back to 2005:

GAME TIME ZONE	ATS RECORD	ATS WIN RATE
Mountain	6-8	42.9%
Central	16-26	38.1%
Eastern	16-38	29.6%

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;">
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</tbody>

For the record, this added wrinkle is not related to the teams? actual travel, but is instead a reflection of betting market overreaction. The betting public tends to focus on recent results and will back teams that covered the spread in their latest game. In turn, oddsmakers react by shading lines, forcing bettors who like these teams to take them at bad numbers.
Sharp bettors wait for these market overreactions and take advantage by betting against the Pacific Time Zone teams, knowing they only cover the spread at a rate of 29.6%.

 

[Jord20]

When I read your reply I saw this and didn't know what it meant but I didn't give it much thought, and I wasn't going to try and figure out what you meant because "Jord certainly doesn't think I'm biased".

Then somebody texted me and laughed because "Jord called you biased".

Since then, about an hour ago, I have thought about it several times and just came back in here now to read it again.

You think I'm biased. What in the world would make you think that? :lol:

Honestly, I was half-joking... but since you asked...


The short of it... I don't think you are biased towards Carolina or against SF, or anything like that. EVERYONE is biased because of the life they have led... that is pretty obvious. I don't get caught up in people calling people biased because everybody is. But Confirmation Bias doesn't necessarily make you biased toward something for a reason. It simply means that you made a certain hypothesis (that Carolina will win), and now you are simply only finding and reading things that confirm your original hypothesis. For instance, finding a random "penalties stat,' and using that as a reason to back Carolina because it means Carolina is a better coached team.

In other words, any evidence you find regarding the game, will lead you to further support your original position... which is why you keep liking it more an more, the more you read and discuss it.

We all do it



:toast: