Here's my GOY. Not sure I've ever said that before.

[Senor Capper]

Check the status of Smith.
No Smith.
No dice. :nono:
IMO

 

[MadJack]

Check the status of Smith.
No Smith.
No dice. :nono:
IMO

WR

S. Smith

Prob Sun Knee 01/06/14

Smith left Week 16 against the Saints with a left knee injury and has not played since. He is expected to be ready to play in the NFC Divisional Round game against the 49ers on Sunday.

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[MadJack]

I haven't made my mind up about this game yet. I have made my mind up on Saturdays games and the late game Sunday but not this one yet. Jack u have many compelling points in favor of UR play, and I'm hoping it hits for u, but u asked for reasons to look at the other side, and here is one that I know of: San Fran was undefeated ats for the season as a road favorite. They lost twice as a road dog, which would indicate to me that next week as a road dog in Seattle is when they fall. Anyway, sf has been money as a road favorite this year. Good luck

That's another thing I don't really follow. This is a whole new ball game.

Head to Head

49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

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And you can find a trend or reason to discount this trend if you want to, like Jord and I were talking about earlier in the thread.

 

[MadJack]

is san diego gonna be the shocker this year?...that defense was lights out last week....and the running game took all the pressure off of rivers....

team looks to be jelling at just the right time(like the ravens beating denver and n.e. on the road last year).......but beating denver at home twice would be a monumental undertaking......

it`s not likely,but,if i were denver,i wouldn`t be taking them lightly...

I'm thinking the same exact thing. I want to, I like it, but haven't had the balls to play it yet.

 

[ldabdou]

Check the status of Smith.
No Smith.
No dice. :nono:
IMO

Agree... Everbody discounting this and in denial...:shrug:

 

[Jord20]

+ Kap resembles you

Lol, yeah, well he has a slightly stronger arm, but I'm a little better looking

Last year on Super Bowl Sunday, I went to pick up some food, and the guy behind the counter goes, "Colin, I thought you had a big game today" lol.

I love Kap... dude is just an athlete.

 

[MadJack]

Agree... Everbody discounting this and in denial...:shrug:

WR

S. Smith

Prob Sun Knee 01/06/14

Smith left Week 16 against the Saints with a left knee injury and has not played since. He is expected to be ready to play in the NFC Divisional Round game against the 49ers on Sunday.

<tbody>
</tbody>

:shrug:

 

[ldabdou]

:shrug:

Sorry.. Was thinking about #99 Aldon Smith...His knee got twisted during the game and he is definately not 100%...Not sure if anybody noticed it but I did.. Dont see any report on it though...

 

[edludes]

I show Carolina winning by 7 using the Lem banker score forecasting method. It's based on teams performances offensively and defensively the last 4 games. Glad u got the 2, it's a pick now. I went against the bengals who were 8-0 at home this year winning by 13 per game ave, so I'm well aware that the playoffs can break trends and be a new ball game. U have a lot of good reasons to support UR play, and a lot of people agree w u, driving the line to a pick.newton freaked me out w how poorly he performed against New Orleans a few weeks ago and until I see him play well under pressure I want no part of that again, even though he pulled it together on the last drive of that game. I'm going to sit this one out and root for UR play.

 

[Big Ted]

Great Site

Great Site

Thanks MJ what a great discussion your have going here on this game, pretty much a rookie when it comes to posting in threads the only thing I have been thinking about though this whole discussion has been playoff experience which I would have to give to San Fran they have been in these situations more than Carolina and know what it's going to take to win in the playoffs

Thanks for letting me give my 2 cents worth

Best of luck on your GOY

Big Ted

 

[Statman02]

NFL road teams off 2 or more road games since Sept 8 1985

SU 73/129 .361..........ATS 93/107/2 .465.........SF is 2/2 both ways

people who say trends don't work just don't know how to use them

Carolina off 2 as a fav vs Conf teams is 6/0 SU 6/0 ATS in January +20.3 per game

Carolina has covered 11 of the last 12 against SF

 

[MadJack]

NFL road teams off 2 or more road games since Sept 8 1985

SU 73/129 .361..........ATS 93/107/2 .465.........SF is 2/2 both ways

people who say trends don't work just don't know how to use them

Carolina off 2 as a fav vs Conf teams is 6/0 SU 6/0 ATS in January +20.3 per game

Carolina has covered 11 of the last 12 against SF

I like it. I made about half my bet so far at pick because I was hoping I would get more points since the consensus favors SF and maybe I'll still get points by game time.

 

[jr11]

Why isnt Carolina favorite by like 3? Ya know for homefield. Two very similar teams, Carolina has already beaten them at SF too. Carolina rested and at home. I guess my stupid thinking or rationale is if Carolina was a 3 point favorite I probably would be all in with you.....Vegas would be setting up many to take the points with SF and probaby teasers too....and bam Carolina smothers them like 23 10. Now, with spread pick em has me over thinking it.

 

[Cortez]

Why isnt Carolina favorite by like 3? Ya know for homefield. Two very similar teams, Carolina has already beaten them at SF too. Carolina rested and at home. I guess my stupid thinking or rationale is if Carolina was a 3 point favorite I probably would be all in with you.....Vegas would be setting up many to take the points with SF and probaby teasers too....and bam Carolina smothers them like 23 10. Now, with spread pick em has me over thinking it.

Don't over think it. Almost 75% of bettors on SF already as a small favorite or pk. Book simply don't need to give SF more points and they seem happy taking a disproportionate amount of SF money at this line. Books don't set lines based on what they think end result will be, they set them to entice bettors to bet a certain way. I agree that Car should be favoured by about 3, and I will be happy to take the bonus points!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Carolina has covered 11 of the last 12 against SF

Mostly as a dog of more than >6 pts.

11/10/2013 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H L 10-9 69,732
10/24/2010 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A L 23-20 72,741

Only 1 game vs Kaeppernick.

12/02/2007 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A L 31-14
11/14/2004 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H L 37-27
11/18/2001 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A W 25-22, OT
10/07/2001 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H W 24-14
10/22/2000 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A L 34-16
09/10/2000 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H L 38-22
12/18/1999 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A L 41-24
10/17/1999 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H L 31-29
12/06/1998 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A W 31-28, OT
11/08/1998 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H W 25-23
11/16/1997 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H W 27-19
09/29/1997 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A W 34-21
12/08/1996 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H L 30-24
09/22/1996 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A L 23-7
12/10/1995 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers A W 31-10
11/05/1995 San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers H L 13-7

:0003


This is the Post-season - anything is probable/possible.

 

[PaSprint]

I really wish I wouldn't read these threads.... Christ this is fucking up my decisions for the Hippo contest! :mj16:

 

[Destructor D]

We are all here to make money and I love this play. Already took Carolina +110 money line when posted. Think you have 2 teams very comparable, but early start could also effect Niners plus 3rd straight road game. See a hard hitting 24-16 type win for Panthers. Will be low scoring, but Niners make mistakes in 3rd straight tough road game.

Panthers ML 10 for 11*

GLTA

 

[Destructor D]

Could be 17-13 type game as well. Points at premium!

 

[cash]

Totally agree. I think "trend" plays are about 7401-7401 ATS in the last 14,802 games. You can crunch the numbers so many different ways to make them fit your theory.

Anyhow, I agree that all those things favor the Panthers. But I'm guessing all things favored the Bungals too. Some teams have it and some just don't when it matters. I'm a believer in Kap and Harbaugh. Kap takes a lot of shit, and definitely isn't the best QB in the world.. but the guys is an athlete and a winner. He makes plays when he needs to, and doesn't feel the pressure. IN a low scoring affair, I like the QB and the coach.

And,I agree about the thread. I love MJs for the diversity of opinions

That seems to me to have been the cornerstone to many many sharp players over a long time.
QB driven league is the new catch phrase.imo successful long term cappers, to use a market concept,
are over weight this idea. In addition separating out or being underweight the HC is asking to be left
behind the others.

Just playing the team with the higher QBR puts you on 85% winners..Using a few coaching filters
regular season win percentage, playoff experience/success, points to a SF win

Jack good luck with your bet as you would need to blow up 2 very important over-riding considerations
to get your win. West coast teams going east, consecutive road games, pale in comparison to
the QB/HC tandem.

Game theory changing fast as well...Soon teams will be 85%-15% passing plays.. Will go for 4th and under a yard ANYWHERE on the field as this gives their team the BEST CHANCE TO WIN.

 

[Skanoochies]

Hey Cash, back in action I see. Glad to see it. When you heading home?
Should have a couple Bacardis before you go.
I see Ron Graham cashed in his chips. Too bad, he was a good guy.
Anyway, good luck with the bets the rest of the way.:toast: