Hi everyone - I'm Ax

[Slicer]

Based on accuscore's 10,000 game simulations the % of Unders occurring in the board today, ranked in order by highest probability of occurring.

Beware this is a 50/50 proposition, this tool just helps me focus in on the 1-2 plays we are looking for each night:

#1. Wash/LAC Under 203.5 57.6%
#2. Det/Hou Under 176 56.9%
#3. Sac/Char Under 201 56.8 %
#4. Orl/Mil Under 203 56.4%
#5. Mia/Bos Under 191.5 54.5%
T5. Den/Memp Under 198.5 54.5%
#7. Chi/OKC Under 201 53.8%
#8 Por/Ind Unde 203 52.2%
#9 MN/NO Under 191.5 51.9%
#10 Phi/Phx Under 226.5 51.6%
#11 NJ/NY Under 214.5 44.7%

 

[grindstone]

Interesting

NJ-NY open 216 current 214.5

82% over
18% under

Line is coming down and the public is still betting the over, lets see what happens.

With Devon Harris out don`t you think players step up and play more defence after a key plalyer like Harris is out of the picture

 

[Ools]

In the bank for tomorrow (borrowed from Pimpdaddy)

Since 2004 here is a breakdown of how each seed has done ATS in their opening rounds. Those good capper's should already know this, but for others this might .

1 vs 16 10-9-1 2008 3-1
2 vs 15 9-11 2008 2-2
3 vs 14 12-8 2008 4-0
4 vs 13 11-9 2008 2-2
5 vs 12 12-8 2008 2-2
6 vs 11 13-7 2008 3-1
7 vs 10 15-5 2008 3-1
8 vs 9 8-10-2 2008 2-2

 

[easterntimezone]

With Devon Harris out don`t you think players step up and play more defence after a key plalyer like Harris is out of the picture

Harris has been out for parts of the season thus far w/ groin/hamstring (?) issues - might be worth examining what sort of point production the Nets were able to manufacture (Dooling filled in as the primary point then as well if memory is correct) during those games...

 

[grindstone]

Based on accuscore's 10,000 game simulations the % of Unders occurring in the board today, ranked in order by highest probability of occurring.

Beware this is a 50/50 proposition, this tool just helps me focus in on the 1-2 plays we are looking for each night:
public %
#1. Wash/LAC Under 203.5 57.6% 54% under
#2. Det/Hou Under 176 56.9% 54% under
#3. Sac/Char Under 201 56.8 % 50% under
#4. Orl/Mil Under 203 56.4% 31% under
#5. Mia/Bos Under 191.5 54.5% 56% under
T5. Den/Memp Under 198.5 54.5% 50% under


#7. Chi/OKC Under 201 53.8% 31% under
#8 Por/Ind Unde 203 52.2% 48% under
#9 MN/NO Under 191.5 51.9% 85% under
#10 Phi/Phx Under 226.5 51.6% 42% under
#11 NJ/NY Under 214.5 44.7% 20% under

IN red boys is the public %

public %
#1. Wash/LAC Under 203.5 57.6% 54% under
#2. Det/Hou Under 176 56.9% 54% under
#3. Sac/Char Under 201 56.8 % 50% under
#4. Orl/Mil Under 203 56.4% 31% under
#5. Mia/Bos Under 191.5 54.5% 56% under
T5. Den/Memp Under 198.5 54.5% 50% under


#7. Chi/OKC Under 201 53.8% 31% under
#8 Por/Ind Unde 203 52.2% 48% under
#9 MN/NO Under 191.5 51.9% 85% under
#10 Phi/Phx Under 226.5 51.6% 42% under
#11 NJ/NY Under 214.5 44.7% 20% under

IN red boys is the public %[/QUOTE]

 

[BIGWave]

The more I look at the T'Wolves/Hornets game I think it is going to be my POD. I like the numbers and these help back it up some.

*T'Wolves in March 2-7

*Hornets in March 3-5

*Under is 8-2 in Timberwolves last 10 overall

*Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 home games

The only part of this one I don't like is the HUGE public percentage on the UNDER with no line movement.
Everyone - and the public's short term memory - remembers the recent under results.........
Is Vegas preying on this????

GLTU

P.S. Ax - great to be reading your extended thoughts here now............the reason I am here. Easier than by PM.
All the best my new friend!!!!

 

[axp59]

With that U got me. If I look at all the games around those times and at their lets say last 5 games scores seems to be about the same trend. I wasn't saying I didn't like the Under in this game I was just throwing something out there to think about knowing you would pull me right back into the right call Bud. I think we look good here.

I'm out for abit got to take advantage of my day off from my real job and nice weather to clean out the garage. FUN FUN:mj10:

Back to work...
Griff, don't let me talk you out of anything. Very small sample of two games...Go enjoy this beautiful day sir and we'll see you later:sadwave:

 

[axp59]

Here they are JC

MINN-NO open 191.5 current 191.5

18% over
82% under

not liking this at all

 

[axp59]

yuck. time to dig deeper

LOL JCW...I see you din't either

 

[axp59]

OMG I can't believe how lucky I am, I just found out about this guy on another forum 2 days ago and then he left. This guy is like a god over there and I've never had the chance to follow him. I thought I'd missed out on him completely!!! Ax I think you will like this forum it's much more respectful. Welcome aboard!!!!! Can't wait for your first picks (I need the help as I'm a lousy capper).:toast:

Whoa.....wrong guy...:142smilie

luke, it was getting ridiculous over there...the mods had to take down Monday's thread...it was around 22,000+ views at that point. You could hardly think never mind communicate with your fellow cappers with all that noise. Thanks you for the welcome. Looks like our crew of great cappers have found a new home!

BTW, you know we don't give out picks...right?
:director:

 

[JCWhy]

The only part of this one I don't like is the HUGE public percentage on the UNDER with no line movement.
Everyone - and the public's short term memory - remembers the recent under results.........
Is Vegas preying on this????

GLTU

P.S. Ax - great to be reading your extended thoughts here now............the reason I am here. Easier than by PM.
All the best my new friend!!!!

I don't like it either and I will probably not play this

 

[JCWhy]

LOL JCW...I see you din't either

THis was my #1 option from the numbers and the Nuggets game was #2 then I ran this and it has me scratching my head.

team=Nuggets and o:WP<30 and site=away and season=2008

 

[axp59]

Hi A$X,
Thanks for letting me know where to go,anything I can do to help let me know.

Thank you and great to see you. actually sir if you could find out from grindstone where he gets his public % if it's Cov...can you check out the numbers @ Vegasinsid...or vice versa...I want a more accurate reading if you don't mind...3pm or 4pm is fine. thank you much

 

[axp59]

Glad to find you in your new tranquil place. Joe Shmoe had a pretty good early run last night ... not sure if you followed.

That guy is money...he's an old friend...his old name was even funnier. I hope those clowns over there don't drive him out...they've got a funny way of killing good cappers over there and he is a great capper!

I feel at home already

 

[coolhandluke]

Whoa.....wrong guy...:142smilie

luke, it was getting ridiculous over there...the mods had to take down Monday's thread...it was around 22,000+ views at that point. You could hardly think never mind communicate with your fellow cappers with all that noise. Thanks you for the welcome. Looks like our crew of great cappers have found a new home!

BTW, you know we don't give out picks...right?
:director:

Yup, I know, you have to read between the lines of (you and all your expert crew) Hopefully I will learn something!

 

[axp59]

Ax,

Thanks for the heads up. Look forward to the same shared success we have had in the past!

Jus...with this crew...how can you go wrong? seriously...these guys rock!!!! Good to see you pal...I know I emailed you kind of late but I see you got it on your blackberry!!

 

[axp59]

Based on accuscore's 10,000 game simulations the % of Unders occurring in the board today, ranked in order by highest probability of occurring.

Beware this is a 50/50 proposition, this tool just helps me focus in on the 1-2 plays we are looking for each night:

#1. Wash/LAC Under 203.5 57.6%
#2. Det/Hou Under 176 56.9%
#3. Sac/Char Under 201 56.8 %
#4. Orl/Mil Under 203 56.4%
#5. Mia/Bos Under 191.5 54.5%
T5. Den/Memp Under 198.5 54.5%
#7. Chi/OKC Under 201 53.8%
#8 Por/Ind Unde 203 52.2%
#9 MN/NO Under 191.5 51.9%
#10 Phi/Phx Under 226.5 51.6%
#11 NJ/NY Under 214.5 44.7%

I vote for DET and DEN...thoughts?

 

[axp59]

With Devon Harris out don`t you think players step up and play more defence after a key plalyer like Harris is out of the picture

caveat bro...this is going to be one tired team...Who was going to look up that info...I can't remember but they're just coming back from the west coast and on a 3 of 4...a little dangerous maybe???

 

[MLBKING]

Ax-

What do you think of the Sacramento/Charlotte Under 201? I am loving this one. Only 1 out of 35 Charlotte home games have gone over 200 not including OT and that came against Golden State. Bobcats like to slow the pace at home, and both teams are towards the bottom in offense. Sacramento is also playing B2B. The last game between these two teams ended at 189. In a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points Sacramento is O/U 2-6, and Charlotte at home is O/U 0-1.

 

[axp59]

In the bank for tomorrow (borrowed from Pimpdaddy)

Since 2004 here is a breakdown of how each seed has done ATS in their opening rounds. Those good capper's should already know this, but for others this might .

1 vs 16 10-9-1 2008 3-1
2 vs 15 9-11 2008 2-2
3 vs 14 12-8 2008 4-0
4 vs 13 11-9 2008 2-2
5 vs 12 12-8 2008 2-2
6 vs 11 13-7 2008 3-1
7 vs 10 15-5 2008 3-1
8 vs 9 8-10-2 2008 2-2

off topic but nice Ools...looks like lucky seven is the play. for the team to win the whole thing...UNC or Wake...if you want I'll tell ya why...back to the NBA