Hi everyone - I'm Ax

[grindstone]

caveat bro...this is going to be one tired team...Who was going to look up that info...I can't remember but they're just coming back from the west coast and on a 3 of 4...a little dangerous maybe???

So true AX could be some sloppy playing here which could run it over the total. Hey AX will we come to a consensus play at the end of the day so that all our energy and hard work could be put in winning it. We can all cheer together which makes it all more exciting.

 

[Ools]

Can't see Wake with their inconsistency - love UNC, but can they play D whe they need to and Lawson's foot has me nervous.

 

[Slicer]

Based on the line movements and public betting, I'm thinking of playing 4, 2 at full units and 2 at half units.

Den/Memphis Full Unit
Det/Hou Full Unit
Sac/Char 1/2
Was/LAC 1/2

I have 1/2 unit already at 176.5 on Det, other 1/2 going in at 176.

Locking the 1/2 on Sac/Char at 201

Waiting on the others trying to extract that hook on Den/Memphis. Might wait all the way to gametime for Clips as I could see late movement running it to 205 plus I'll know how early games went.

 

[axp59]

The only part of this one I don't like is the HUGE public percentage on the UNDER with no line movement.
Everyone - and the public's short term memory - remembers the recent under results.........
Is Vegas preying on this????

GLTU

P.S. Ax - great to be reading your extended thoughts here now............the reason I am here. Easier than by PM.
All the best my new friend!!!!

Just BigWave...what happen to Dave...LOL...glad to have your insight my friend!

 

[axp59]

public %
#1. Wash/LAC Under 203.5 57.6% 54% under
#2. Det/Hou Under 176 56.9% 54% under
#3. Sac/Char Under 201 56.8 % 50% under
#4. Orl/Mil Under 203 56.4% 31% under
#5. Mia/Bos Under 191.5 54.5% 56% under
T5. Den/Memp Under 198.5 54.5% 50% under


#7. Chi/OKC Under 201 53.8% 31% under
#8 Por/Ind Unde 203 52.2% 48% under
#9 MN/NO Under 191.5 51.9% 85% under
#10 Phi/Phx Under 226.5 51.6% 42% under
#11 NJ/NY Under 214.5 44.7% 20% under

IN red boys is the public %

[/QUOTE]

damn I'm liking that DEN play more and more

 

[Ools]

Sorry to continue off topic - but this was interesting.
Characteristics of NCAA champ:
- 8 of last 8 had 10 game win streak during season
- 19 pf 21 had NBA player 6'8" or taller (subjective)
- 20 of 21 had NBA point guard (subjective)
- 8 of 11 won conference tourney

When you go through this list - only 2 survive Lousiville and Memphis. (Being an AAU coach that uses the dribble-drive-motion-offense, I'm on Memphis (with prejudice))

 

[axp59]

THis was my #1 option from the numbers and the Nuggets game was #2 then I ran this and it has me scratching my head.

team=Nuggets and o:WP<30 and site=away and season=2008

it is interesting isn't it?????
first game was 198 too...again I ask...what's the difference with the two teams now????

 

[axp59]

Yup, I know, you have to read between the lines of (you and all your expert crew) Hopefully I will learn something!

hahahaha Welcome sir and please, your insight if you have an angle we should consider. These guys are money!!! all great cappers on their own but together...holy crap!!!

 

[grindstone]

damn I'm liking that DEN play more and more[/QUOTE]


Sitting at 51% over and 49 % under the line has not moved from 198.5.

 

[axp59]

Ax-

What do you think of the Sacramento/Charlotte Under 201? I am loving this one. Only 1 out of 35 Charlotte home games have gone over 200 not including OT and that came against Golden State. Bobcats like to slow the pace at home, and both teams are towards the bottom in offense. Sacramento is also playing B2B. The last game between these two teams ended at 189. In a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points Sacramento is O/U 2-6, and Charlotte at home is O/U 0-1.

I think this is a solid looking play once I dug around some more...did you know they haven't been a dd fav @ home this year? the last time was exactly a year ago 3/22 and that game was against the heat (also on the tail end of a b2b, 0 rest) and went under the 192 number by 16...

you aint alone pal...I think slice likes this play alot...I'm not sure if he's full 1U in yet but I think he's already bought some or was it JCW???

 

[axp59]

So true AX could be some sloppy playing here which could run it over the total. Hey AX will we come to a consensus play at the end of the day so that all our energy and hard work could be put in winning it. We can all cheer together which makes it all more exciting.

consensus?...with this bunch?...we might have a few...LOL how about I'll tell you what I lock in on...after this great feedback!!!

 

[axp59]

Can't see Wake with their inconsistency - love UNC, but can they play D whe they need to and Lawson's foot has me nervous.

Bro, 1/20U on both of these teams...good value I think. you know what the odds are for either to win it all?

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX now update

Den-Mem open 198.5 current 198.542% over
58% under

 

[grindstone]

consensus?...with this bunch?...we might have a few...LOL how about I'll tell you what I lock in on...after this great feedback!!!

Sounds good to me thanks Bro

 

[axp59]

Based on the line movements and public betting, I'm thinking of playing 4, 2 at full units and 2 at half units.

Den/Memphis Full Unit
Det/Hou Full Unit
Sac/Char 1/2
Was/LAC 1/2

I have 1/2 unit already at 176.5 on Det, other 1/2 going in at 176.

Locking the 1/2 on Sac/Char at 201

Waiting on the others trying to extract that hook on Den/Memphis. Might wait all the way to gametime for Clips as I could see late movement running it to 205 plus I'll know how early games went.

LOVING this card slice...I've also narrowed it down to the first 3 you listed...I can't do the last with those two god-awful teams...:142smilie

 

[easterntimezone]

damn I'm liking that DEN play more and more

Ax -

This'll likely be my primary play - based on what we've discussed - Denver isn't anywhere close to being a sure favorite in winning this outright and if it comes down to a contest of wills, I'll favor the Grizzlies who compete until the final buzzer (even when they're down huge, they still run plays and it's not just a bunch of scrubs trying to inflate their personal stats - almost as if they're looking to salvage even a moral victory in going down w/ an unbroken spirit)... And if so, tempo of Grizzlies -> low scoring affair.

 

[Ools]

at my site:

Wake +1250
NC +140
Memphis +600
Louisville +250

I like the Memphis value - getting a true #1 at a #2 price

 

[axp59]

Sorry to continue off topic - but this was interesting.
Characteristics of NCAA champ:
- 8 of last 8 had 10 game win streak during season
- 19 pf 21 had NBA player 6'8" or taller (subjective)
- 20 of 21 had NBA point guard (subjective)
- 8 of 11 won conference tourney

When you go through this list - only 2 survive Lousiville and Memphis. (Being an AAU coach that uses the dribble-drive-motion-offense, I'm on Memphis (with prejudice))

try this one on for size...No team since 2003 has won the whole thing without having at least 3 NBA-ready players. So gotta go with UNC and Wake. UNC has Ty, Tyler and Danny Green. Wake is even better with Teague, Al-Farouq and Johnson.

Kansas had 3 last year, Florida had four before that and remember that UConn team in 04? SIX? Sick...

 

[grindstone]

damn I'm liking that DEN play more and more

Ax -

This'll likely be my primary play - based on what we've discussed Ax - Denver isn't anywhere close to being a sure favorite in winning this outright and if it comes down to a contest of wills, I'll favor the Grizzlies who compete until the final buzzer (even when they're down huge, they still run plays and it's not just a bunch of scrubs trying to inflate their personal stats - almost as if they're looking to salvage even a moral victory in going down w/ an unbroken spirit)... And if so, tempo of Grizzlies -> low scoring affair.[/QUOTE]

Actually have to agree and I would grab Mem +6.5 and maybe an outright win for mem here.

 

[axp59]

Hey AX now update

Den-Mem open 198.5 current 198.542% over
58% under

do i dare wait? only 2:30...these last few are the hardest.