home favs w/ revenge

[loophole]

score away jack, glad you're keeping the faith.

wildbill, i'll be a double revenge favorite player too. i'll probably start another thread for that.

as jack pointed out, nothing much last night as plays go 1-2 and stand 36-40 overall but positive for the last week.

15 plays today:

buffalo -6
ucla -6
ind st -8
siu -1
san diego -1
s diego st -6-
cal poly slo -1
air force -1-
neb Omaha -7
s dak st -7-
Denver -8
Belmont - 5
siu ed -3
Idaho st -5
Idaho -2-

it may be my imagination as I haven't gone back and ran a tally, but it seems like the short lines of -2 or less are performing better than the rest. something else to do when I find the time.


glta

 

[MadJack]

8-7 Saturday
34-26 since I joined in.

Some tough losses in there yesterday.

 

[loophole]

8-7 saturday with trend plays; you're right jack, it could have been much better with a few bounces going the other way. Overall stands at 44 -47, 3 plays on todays short card:

Col of chas -2-
Bradley -2-
Oakland -6-


Glta

 

[MadJack]

0-3 Sunday
34-29 since I joined in. I'm up about 1 unit since I started, I think I'll back off and keep a watch on this for now.

Bad breaks the last 2 days but I'm seeing a lot of guys getting bad breaks everywhere. I'm guessing the books are getting fat lately.

 

[loophole]

I don't blame you jack. I'm starting to doubt whether this trend is ever going to get off the ground this year. Judging by all close beats we've been seeing lately, looks like another good betting grend that the books have caught onto and adjusted for. Now 44-50 overall. Thankfully only one play today:

Morgan st -1-


Glta

 

[loophole]

0-1 yesterday as morgan st gets routed at home. 44-51 overall. Thankfully no plays today.

Glta

 

[Full court press]

Akron should be a short home chalk that fits tomorrow but I don't particularly like it. Toledo presents a tough matchup for the Zips at the 1-3-4 spots.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Loop, your thread is home favs w/revenge in same season correct? If so, Georgia would be a home fav that lost on the rd this year to S Carolina 67-50. Also Nevada now -2 lost @ Wyoming 63-55.

:shrug:

 

[loophole]

thanks bill just flat out missed Georgia, will make ga -6- our only play thus far for tonight. with regards to Nevada, I still have them as a pick or a +1 dog.

 

[#cruncher]

Several years back loophole I got to looking at road dogs getting less than 4 points. They seem to be doing good so I tracked them for a while but don't remember any exact numbers. What I did notice was that the play got stronger if the road team had lost at least it's last game; and then I noticed that it got even stronger if the road team had lost its last game and the home team had won at least it's last game. I've always sworn to myself that I wasn't going to bet on a team unless it had lost it's last game and the opponent had won its last game but never have done it. My thinking was I wanted to at least have motivation on my side regardless of my number. It could have been a one year fluke tho. By the way, I liked your comment on the 6th grade statistics, or something like that. :0074

 

[WildBillPicks7]

thanks bill just flat out missed Georgia, will make ga -6- our only play thus far for tonight. with regards to Nevada, I still have them as a pick or a +1 dog.

No prob Loop. Also Evansville -10, they lost to Drake on the rd 70-65. Nevada went from +2 to -2 to +1 today.

GL!

:0074

 

[loophole]

Just single digit home favorites qualify bill. Thanks for helping to keep up.

 

[eeeerock]

Good thing because Evansville gave that cover away,up 11 after making 2 FT's with 17 seconds left and they foul Drake with 14 seconds to go,he promptly makes both to make the lead 9 and then they run out the clock and yes the spread was 10....Very shady finish and the guy who made the foul missed a couple layups late as well,oh well just had to add this tidbit for no particular reason.

 

[loophole]

Georgia trails wire to wire to drop tuesday's only trend play as overall falls to 44-52. I've quit playing all trend plays as it kinda became like slamming your pecker in a door over and over so it feels good when you stop. Nonetheless, I'm still going to cherrypick the plays as I stubbornly believe the overall number will recover. I still believe that this trend is one filter away from a keeper.

Thanks for all the input and feedback guys.

Without further ado, here's tonight's plays:

Rhode isl -5-
Fla -5-
N'eastern -2
Akron -2- *note fcp's comment above on this game
Tcu -3
Ok st -2
Amer -4


Glta

 

[loophole]

Plays 3-4 last night, now 47-56 overall. If you heeded full court press' heads up on akron you pushed at worse. Getting the board's input on the plays that raise a red flag could be what this trend needs to push it into the black, so feel free to chime in. Personally I think tonight's card looks fairly attractive. We'll see what that's worth:

Tulane -6-
Indiana -5
Ill chi -1
Pepperdine -6- * caution - 2 pt line drop already
Lbst -6-
Ut chat -4-
Belmont -2
Denver -4
Sac st -6

I especially like the last five.


Glta

 

[loophole]

I have noted another system I saw elsewhere on the net that plays against home favorites of more than 6- if they rank below 180 by kenpom. That would put tulane in question.

 

[smurphy]

Have tracked this system for double-digit faves? I'm wondering if that might be where the best value is since people tend to get chased away from the bigger chalk. :shrug:

 

[Full court press]

Love UIC....

BOL LOOP

 

[loophole]

Plays go 4-5 last night in what has become a typical pattern, overall drops to 47-57. Still a little disbelief on my part that this trend will likely close out the year in the red.

Smurphy - I haven't tracked dd favorites with revenge but I'll try to keep an eye on that. I do plan on starting a double revenge tracking thread come tournament time.

Only two trend plays tonight.

Wisc gb-5
Dartmouth -2


Glta

 

[loophole]

Trend 0-2 last night, 47-59 overall. Im starting to wonder whether this once productive trend has now become a fade as a result of linesmaker adjustment, but I haven't gone back to compare actual to expected lines. In any event, I'm going to finish out the season with this thread, if for no other reason than to have a full season tracked and saved. I stll think it has some value if you pick your spots. With 23 games today, im obviously not recommending anyone actually bet all of these games:

Ecu-6-
Syr -4-
St johns -8-
Del - 6
Baylor-9
Xav -4
Texas -2-
Pep -2-
Richmd -4-
Troy -1
St joe -2
N ill -2
Utah st -6
Uc davis -4-
Quinn -3
S dak -5-
N dak st -4
Mon st -3
Jax st -8
Siu ed -1-
Mont -7
Port st -3


Glta