BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 25
Atlanta at Montreal (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
Six weeks ago it appeared that the Expos would be a serious threat to the Braves, but the longer Vladimir Guerrero stays on the DL the less likely that becomes. Atlanta leads the season series (6-4), swept a three-game set in Canada earlier this year and has a better record on the road (31-19, +$1285) than the Expos have at home (28-18, +$355). We?ll back the better team at favorable prices in all situations except when Shane Reynolds lugs his 5.46 ERA to the mound. BEST BET: Braves except with Reynolds.
Cincinnati at NY Mets (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Mets shocked the Reds earlier this month by sweeping three games in Ohio. That?s no surprise to Reds? fans as Cincy has been below .500 at home for the past three and a half years. But, the new look/no talent Mets have been dismal against righthanders at home (-$610 with only 3.8 RPG) and are capable of losing 100 games, so we?re not about to predict a sweep at Shea Stadium. Former Met Paul Wilson (+$580 in 2003) pitched well (seven innings, two runs) against NY last month and Ryan Dempster, of all pitchers, is 7-2 lifetime with a respectable 4.38 ERA. BEST BET: Wilson/Dempster.
Philadelphia at Florida (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Phillies have opened up a lead in the NL wildcard chase, but the Marlins have won six of 10 in head to head play for a hefty profit of $515 against the Phillies this year. We?ll be all over the exciting Dontrelle Willis (Marlins are 11-3, +725 in his starts) when he takes the hill. The Phillies? best hope lies with the reliable Kevin Millwood (7-3, +$270 on the road) who checks in with a 1.17 ERA in his last three starts. BEST BET: Willis/Millwood.
Chicago Cubs at Houston (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
As we approach the 100 games played mark, the NL Central remains the most wide open race in MLB and the record between these two teams (3-3) is further indication that nothing will be decided until late September. The Cubs are mostly a pitching (3.93 team ERA, 4th best in the league), so so hitting club while the Astros do both (fifth in team ERA, sixth in BA) fairly well. Mark Prior has pitched well on the road, with a 2.44 ERA and 70Ks in 66.1 innings and the Cubs are 7-3 (+$275) in his 10 road starts. BEST BET: Prior.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Pirates managed a 4-3 victory in May that gave Woody Williams his first of just three losses this year. That won?t stop us from making the red hot Williams (+$540, 3.24 ERA) the top play in this series. On the other hand, we can?t wait to play against Garret Stephenson. The Cardinals are 7-13 (-$880) when he takes the hill and he?s allowed 16 runs and 25 hits/walks in 26 innings over his last four starts. BEST BET: Williams/Pirates vs. Stephenson.
Milwaukee at Colorado (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Rockies, just 15-35 (-$1680) on the road, managed to win two of three in Wisconsin (+$100) against the worst home team in the NL (Brewers only 18-34,-$1335), so taking this series shouldn?t be much of a problem. Colorado is a sparkling 35-16 (+$1760) at home averaging 6.8 RPG. Forget the pitching match ups and play the far superior offense. BEST BET: Rockies in all games.
Los Angeles at Arizona (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Arizona swept LA in the most recent series holding the Dodgers? inept ?O? to two runs in 27 innings. Jeromy Burnitz and Rickey Henderson should help, but with Brian Jordan out for the year and Fred McGriff back on the DL, those additions may not be enough to jump start this sorry attack (only 3.6 RPG in 2003). And, with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling finally 100% healthy, the inept LA offense will be putting loads of goose eggs on the scoreboard. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
San Diego at San Francisco (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Giants have dominated the lowly Padres (7-2, +$260), a total disaster of a team on the road (17-32), but one of those SD victories was against ace Jason Schmidt. The Giants have the second best home record (30-15, +$820) in the NL and pound lefties at home (11-2, +$885), so jump all over the Padres? Oliver Perez in the final game of this series. Neither of the other two projected match ups piques our interest. BEST BET: Giants vs. Perez.
NY Yankees at Boston (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Yankees held a four game lead over the Red Sox at press time and a 6-4 edge in the series. The first two games in this series are much too close to call, but for completely different reasons. We?ll just sit back and enjoy Martinez/Mussina II as these two great hurlers allowed two runs and struck out 20 in 15 innings on July 7. Conversely, the Weaver/Burkett match up may last six hours as these two BP pitchers are a combined 2-10 against the opposition. The final match up featuring Andy Pettitte vs. Derek Lowe favors NY off Pettitte?s 12-4 lifetime record (2.51 ERA) and 2-0 mark (1.72 ERA) this season.BEST BET: Pettitte.
Baltimore at Toronto (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
These two teams must be sick of playing each other by now. This is their fourth series since June 17 with each team winning five times and the Orioles up $185. It?s impossible to go against Roy Halladay (+$1230), a leading early candidate for the AL Cy Young Award. He?s won 14 straight decisions and had 3.22 ERA in May, a 3.15 in June and has a 1.91 ERA in July. With the hot Rodrigo Lopez drawing Halladay and Sydney Ponson not scheduled in this series, the only hope for the O?s is Jason Johnson (+$530, 3.65 ERA),who won?t be up against a quality arm. BEST BET:Halladay/Johnson.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
One of the reasons that the Royals are in first place in the AL Central is that they?ve battered the toothless Tigers (8-1, +$645) with the lone Detroit victory coming against Brad Voyles, who has pitched all of 14.1 innings in MLB this season. Despite some recent success in Comerica, the Tigers have, by far, the fewest (12) number of wins at home in MLB and don?t figure to do much damage to a team that has won 12 of its last 16 games. BEST BET: Royals in all games.
Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
It couldn?t have gotten much worse for last season?s AL Central champs. The Twins had lost 12 of 13 and 22 of 28. But, along came the All-Star break and the 2003 Twins are starting to resemble last season?s AL Central champions. They?re coming off a four-game sweep of the powerful Athletics and should be able to take advantage of a young Cleveland team that battles, but is too experienced to win with regularity. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Tampa Bay at Chicago W. Sox (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The acquisitions of Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett give hope that the Pale Hose will get its act together (only 48-50, -$1910 so far). But time is beginning to run out and the amount of games that Chicago trails by is growing larger. One would think that the Sox should take at least two with Bartolo Colon and Esteban Loaiza scheduled, but Chicago is -$1305 as chalk and that scares us off. But, so does Tampa?s 28-58 (-$1055) mark as a dog. PREFERRED: None.
Oakland at Anaheim (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
If the Angels are going to be a factor in this year?s pennant race, now is the time to start playing like the champions they were a year ago. Anaheim has a 5-4 (+$220) advantage in the series and the A?s are mere mortals (18-26, -$1665) on the road and 11-17 (-$1160) away vs. right handers. So this looks like a solid opportunity to pick up some ground. Anaheim does its best work at home against southpaws (12-6, +$340) and already has a pair of ?Ws? against Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. BEST BET: Angels vs. lefthanders.
Texas at Seattle (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Mariners have had a rough time (only 5-4, -$145 in head to head play) with the Rangers, but we expect that to change in this four-game set. Seattle has been in a bit of a funk (lost seven of eleven), but the worst pitching staff in the AL (Rangers 6.00 team ERA) will be the elixir that cures the ailing patient. Seattle should have no trouble winning at least two, but the prices will be too rich for our blood. BEST BET: None.
