First of all, I deeply apologize for not being here since Thanksgiving. It was very humbling to see all the concern for me posted on this site and I thank you all so much for that. I lost my best friend in the world (since we were 7 years old) on Thanksgiving morning to cancer. His astute team of doctors just told him a week earlier that his cancer was in remission. So, this news hit me hard and suddenly. This dude was closer than my own brother. We had coffee and talk sports every single morning. So after he went, last thing that I could think about for the past 2 months was football. Time heals all wounds and I am back to my passion, handicapping football and I think I have 2 winners today.
So here is Game #1. Then I'm going to shovel 29" of snow and will post game #2 sometime this afternoon.
Denver +3
The first stat that hits me is that the Patriots are 2-6 ATS and SU their last 8 games as a road favorite of 3 or less.
Secondly, the Patriots are 3-9 ATS on grass fields. Third, The Patriots are only 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this year.
The Rivalry. Brady vs Manning are 2-2 in playoff games. However, they are both undefeated at home. This game is at Denver.
The Patriot run game has all but disappeared and has relied on the Brady dink and dunk. Very similar to the Steelers offense. The Broncos handled that well
In the end, I am taking the better defensive team at home getting points. After all, the Patriots have received over 70% of the action as a 3 point favorite and the line hasn't budged an inch.
