I've posted COLLEGE football games in this forum before, but not consistantly. I post my hoss wacin picks in the "At The TRACK" room and if my results here match that . :mj09:... well, it's gonna be a VERY nice footsball season alright. Thought I'd share this week picks that I get from a spreadsheet that I toiled over for months and months back in 2008. Except for one year --> it came out profitable. As much as I'd like to, I'd LUV to tellyas what it did in the 2009 BOWLS (it made a pick in EVERY Bowl game for that year) but I can't cause NOBODY would believe me after seeing that unbelieveable figure and you'd close this thread right now. I did post the plays in my old forum that year.
Just to give yas an idea what this SHEET does.. it rates every game based on 3 different methods (each one is complicated as all hell). It continually tracks each team based on the ADJUSTED (that's the complicated and most important part) margins each team has better or "worser" than it's oponent's. You know, combinations of the kind of stuff you see in the matchup stats like TOTAL AVG YARDAGE FOR/AGAINST, +/- TURNOVERS, PASSING YARDS AGAINST/FOR, OPPONENTS RELATIVE STRENGH (I even forget the dang formulas I developed for that one, but it does keep tracking, cumulatively week by week, each team to arrive at it's rating, margins (ATS) wins (+) or losses {-} so far this year, stuff like that. Again, it doesn't just use the difference between today's two teams right from the stats for each stat, it ADJUSTS that margin and every week that adjustment changes a bit based on how the they did for EVERY game they played so far AND BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TEAM THEY PLAYED THAT WEEK. Pretty much, that means it should keep picking better and better as we get more and more into the season. BTW, sorry to say, but I ain't a very consistant poster
Unfortunately, what it doesn't know a dang thang about is stuff like - THE PLAYERS (OUCH), INJURIES, MOTIVATION, COACHES, stuff like that and that is where I come in. The SHEET usually has about 20% of it's final ratings for each game each week where it rates one team over the other on all 3 methods/ratings. I look at those and use whatever I know about the teams to come up with the games I play from those 10 top picks.
I have to wait for at least 2 weeks of play before I can play anything based on the SHEET'S picks cause I gotts feed it data from the previous weeks for each game and every week and that's a lot of time to do. Sorry, I don't keep tract of percentages but I can tellyas that week 3 it did good, week 4 it did VERY good, and week 5.... UGH! TERRIBLE. I gotta think that week 5 was a miscarriage fo sho. Even the calculated cells in the SHEET were extremely wierd... . like, a figure that is normally between 5 and say, 20 was like over a hundred for one or both teams in many of the games?? Just crazy for many games. I did check to see if there were mistakes and there weren't any either (with these SS, you just cut and past the formulars from the previous week so nothing can go wrong with all the figuring part or chance for typos). You WILL believe this part - > it scored around 30% (barely) winners ATS (all plays and ratings are ATS) with it's picks for week 5. I gotta believe week 5 was some kinda abortion. The figures do look nomal this week and that's a good thing. :0074
Also, the lines I have below were the actual line when I ran the spreadsheet. I'm not a fractional line moving fanatic and believe that these plays are strong enough to disregard line moves up to say .. 2 pts.
Enough with the boring stuff, here's the plays that I like and the SS luvs (each one is in it's top 10)...
MEMPHIS +21 vs. Rice: Owls actually have (sorta, that is), a winning streak going - covered 5 straight at home. Hmmm... Owls... winning streak? Somehow that doesn't sound right to me. Yeah, not a popular or high profile game, but the puter doesn't know that and made this a strong play.
Army -2: They do run, run, run... they do run, run ♫ ♪ ♫ ♪ ♪
This team has been gradually picking it up over the past few seasons and Miami (Ohio) plays poorly at home. I believe Army continues to improve and plays confidently ESP. vs. a bit of a weakling this week.
Georgia -2: Pesonally, I don't like playing against a scoring machine. I'm kinda undecied about taking the puter's pick on this one.
Wake +10 1/2 (I always grab the hook when the line is 10): Grobe knows how to win at home and the puter doesn't even know that. I'm undecided about taking a shot at the M.L. with this one... YUMMY odds.
UL Lafayette +6 1-2: Like the Tigers (1st pick above), who cares? I do cause I went along with this pick. BTW, the SS (spreadsheet) made a lot more AWAY picks than Homies and that's just another reason I'm going along with this Home play.
OK, that's 5 picks and I'll leave it at that so I don't post a 50/50 jobbie. Gotta either show a winning weekend or not.
OH, I do have one pick that you can blame ME for cause the puter doesn't know up from down OR OVER from UNDER.
It's:
LSU/Gators UNDER whatever line I get (didn't put this in YET, but I will). I think both teams may play a little conservatively in this important matchup and that means more running plays to me. Take a look at BOTH team's defenses vs. the run... something else. I watched Florida's games and they just don't impress me and thought about taking a side with the Tigers. The bookie mon gives a strong nod to the Tigers and so do I, but if that's the case - it will be FLA that will have to take some chances offensively and that plays right into LSU's hands with their extraordinary defense. Also, I'm in the southern half of FLA and it's gonna rain like the dickens down here today.... may do the same in the northern half too? Think that should help the UNDER as well, but don't need it even if it doesn't rain.
I probably should mention that these two have gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 matchups dating back to 2007. Those "trends?" don't mean a thing to me cause college rosters change too much year after year.
GOOD LUCK, MJers.
Just to give yas an idea what this SHEET does.. it rates every game based on 3 different methods (each one is complicated as all hell). It continually tracks each team based on the ADJUSTED (that's the complicated and most important part) margins each team has better or "worser" than it's oponent's. You know, combinations of the kind of stuff you see in the matchup stats like TOTAL AVG YARDAGE FOR/AGAINST, +/- TURNOVERS, PASSING YARDS AGAINST/FOR, OPPONENTS RELATIVE STRENGH (I even forget the dang formulas I developed for that one, but it does keep tracking, cumulatively week by week, each team to arrive at it's rating, margins (ATS) wins (+) or losses {-} so far this year, stuff like that. Again, it doesn't just use the difference between today's two teams right from the stats for each stat, it ADJUSTS that margin and every week that adjustment changes a bit based on how the they did for EVERY game they played so far AND BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TEAM THEY PLAYED THAT WEEK. Pretty much, that means it should keep picking better and better as we get more and more into the season. BTW, sorry to say, but I ain't a very consistant poster
Unfortunately, what it doesn't know a dang thang about is stuff like - THE PLAYERS (OUCH), INJURIES, MOTIVATION, COACHES, stuff like that and that is where I come in. The SHEET usually has about 20% of it's final ratings for each game each week where it rates one team over the other on all 3 methods/ratings. I look at those and use whatever I know about the teams to come up with the games I play from those 10 top picks.
I have to wait for at least 2 weeks of play before I can play anything based on the SHEET'S picks cause I gotts feed it data from the previous weeks for each game and every week and that's a lot of time to do. Sorry, I don't keep tract of percentages but I can tellyas that week 3 it did good, week 4 it did VERY good, and week 5.... UGH! TERRIBLE. I gotta think that week 5 was a miscarriage fo sho. Even the calculated cells in the SHEET were extremely wierd... . like, a figure that is normally between 5 and say, 20 was like over a hundred for one or both teams in many of the games?? Just crazy for many games. I did check to see if there were mistakes and there weren't any either (with these SS, you just cut and past the formulars from the previous week so nothing can go wrong with all the figuring part or chance for typos). You WILL believe this part - > it scored around 30% (barely) winners ATS (all plays and ratings are ATS) with it's picks for week 5. I gotta believe week 5 was some kinda abortion. The figures do look nomal this week and that's a good thing. :0074
Also, the lines I have below were the actual line when I ran the spreadsheet. I'm not a fractional line moving fanatic and believe that these plays are strong enough to disregard line moves up to say .. 2 pts.
Enough with the boring stuff, here's the plays that I like and the SS luvs (each one is in it's top 10)...
MEMPHIS +21 vs. Rice: Owls actually have (sorta, that is), a winning streak going - covered 5 straight at home. Hmmm... Owls... winning streak? Somehow that doesn't sound right to me. Yeah, not a popular or high profile game, but the puter doesn't know that and made this a strong play.
Army -2: They do run, run, run... they do run, run ♫ ♪ ♫ ♪ ♪
This team has been gradually picking it up over the past few seasons and Miami (Ohio) plays poorly at home. I believe Army continues to improve and plays confidently ESP. vs. a bit of a weakling this week.
Georgia -2: Pesonally, I don't like playing against a scoring machine. I'm kinda undecied about taking the puter's pick on this one.
Wake +10 1/2 (I always grab the hook when the line is 10): Grobe knows how to win at home and the puter doesn't even know that. I'm undecided about taking a shot at the M.L. with this one... YUMMY odds.
UL Lafayette +6 1-2: Like the Tigers (1st pick above), who cares? I do cause I went along with this pick. BTW, the SS (spreadsheet) made a lot more AWAY picks than Homies and that's just another reason I'm going along with this Home play.
OK, that's 5 picks and I'll leave it at that so I don't post a 50/50 jobbie. Gotta either show a winning weekend or not.
OH, I do have one pick that you can blame ME for cause the puter doesn't know up from down OR OVER from UNDER.
It's:
LSU/Gators UNDER whatever line I get (didn't put this in YET, but I will). I think both teams may play a little conservatively in this important matchup and that means more running plays to me. Take a look at BOTH team's defenses vs. the run... something else. I watched Florida's games and they just don't impress me and thought about taking a side with the Tigers. The bookie mon gives a strong nod to the Tigers and so do I, but if that's the case - it will be FLA that will have to take some chances offensively and that plays right into LSU's hands with their extraordinary defense. Also, I'm in the southern half of FLA and it's gonna rain like the dickens down here today.... may do the same in the northern half too? Think that should help the UNDER as well, but don't need it even if it doesn't rain.
I probably should mention that these two have gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 matchups dating back to 2007. Those "trends?" don't mean a thing to me cause college rosters change too much year after year.
GOOD LUCK, MJers.
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