I'm ready for the BIG DANCE

[Jimboski]

Hello Mad Jackers...er, make that Forum Fans :sadwave:

I joined this forum quite some time ago (note the avatar, which I gotta change) and used to post tennis plays. Tennis has always been my best sporting plays and I've done very well over the past few years in that sport. But, NOT lately. I like playing 2-4 team parlays and something has been happening to them MUCH too often lately - my single tennis play in the parlay, along with the basketballers, has been killing otherwise winning parlays. And this has been happening much too often lately. Just the other day, my Cilic to beat Robredo play KILLED a nice 4 teamer that had 3 basket (COLLEGE NOT NBA, no, no; no thanks trying to beat that coin flip sport. At least not for me.) winners. There were others similar to that in my previous plays.

So, it's time to switch tracks I think and the timing couldn't be better. I was going to write a little about how I handicap the games here, but to save time - here's the plays. I'm listing 5 here with the hope that at least I can catch 3 out of 5 which i believe is very do-able. The lines are what I got when I put these in early yesterday. Here goes:

Wyoming -3: Yeah, everybody's pick. But after I did some serious number crunching - I can see why.

Gonzaga -12 1/2

Portland +6

Ariz. St. -4 1/2

Texas -4: looks too easy.

Let's put on our dancing shoes and bogie...:fit01:

Good Luck eveybody.

 

[Jimboski]

Partial results

Partial results

Well, not exactly making a big spash around here! Two results:

Wyoming a LOSAH. Had good company with that pick and if they played again - I'd take them again. Always a little leary about going with plays that are sooo popular (ala. So. Carolina) but after doing all the figuring, this one just came up too strong. Pretty close game, but no ceeegar

Portland a PUSH (Although I think their closing line would have made them a tough loss? I don't shave points; just put down the line I GOT (at Dimes this time). I also don't do too well keeping up with my "record" cause I think the readers get a good idea whose hot and whose not. Hope I can get a "luke warm" outa this one

I'd like to see my first basket post have a winning percentage but with the push it could go 2-2. So, I'm gonna add a play....

LSU -2 : My nos. tell me they have a decent defense advantage in addition to a sizable rebounding advantage. In addition, my own strength of sched. rating gives LSU the edge. One thing I normally don't consider is the size difference of the players, but I've seen both these teams more than once this season and the Tigers got some real bean sprouts out there. At least 4 of the LSU starters will have a 4" height advantage and that cannot be ignored. For an Over/Under play, I'd consider UNDER, but THIS pick sez. LSU covers.

Also, TEXAS is a 2x play for me - so let's say all plays are 1 unit, but TEXAS is 2. Speedy team with plenty of talent that just didn't play up to their potential YET. Minny is lackluster and my adjusted figures make them a LOSAH!

Enjoy the games.

 

[Jimboski]

Another result in

Another result in

Whew, sure glad the LSU ended so I could put on my deep sea diving outfit and retrieve this thing. Sure is an active place and thats a GOOD thing.

LSU is a WIN: But, just like the losers - not by much though. A couple of those L-O-N-G, lean dudes came in handy.

Letting this post ride, but I'll mention a parlay I got going. I actually had 2 parlays going, but one got killed by Memphis, a team that I didn't feel sure enough to post. Good thing. Just to mention another team I like today (Villa) and re-iterate (WOW, hows that 50 cent word :scared ) my feelings bout TEXAS - here ya go.....

4 TEAMER

Azarenko +130 (Sorry, this tennis match got done last night. She pulled out this match) :thumb:

Conn/Tenn Chat OVER 144 (Last I saw was at halftime and it's looking pretty good, but a long way to go).

Villanova - 16: I got it at -16 and it's NOW at -15. I DON'T like that.

Texas -3 - I got it at -3 and they're now at -2 1/2. NO PROBLEM as far as I'm concerned !

After college bowl time - this time of the year is great, ain't it? Enjoy the games.

 

[Jimboski]

Couple more results

Couple more results

At least the VIEWS are getting up there a bit:clap:

In the words of somebody I'd prefer NOT to be associated with, " MISSION ACCOMPLISHED".:00hour

Yes, I know 3 outa 5 (so far) ain't no big deal, but it's a start.

Add 2 winners....

Gonzaga : Man that was close; who the hell figures out those lines anyway?

and

TEXAS : Oh YEEAH (sticking with this team). Abrams did his thing yesterday, but Pittman and James ain't wood and either could pretty much carry this team as well at any time. Keep an eye on Pittman, he's getting fitter and fitter every time they come out to play.

Add 1 loser...

Villa : You know, even though they missed a push or covering by just one score - I think the lesson to be learned is to just stay away (ATS) from those top, or no. 2, seeds that play those "obscure" teams OR taking the obscure team and the points. How the hell do you assess a game between a garbage team that looked so good against other garbage teams vs. a top team that looked quite good against other top level teams??? In some cases, some cappers may argue that the "garbage" team actually looked good the ONE time they faced a high ranked A-1 team... but that ain't a enough! F'rinstance, last night it only took about 5 minutes worth of game to see that Binghamton was virtually a LOCK to LOSE (ATS) vs. the Dukies. I don't see any way somebody "knew" that was the case BEFORE that game started. Tellyas, what a dumb mistake to make a play on one of those type plays with sooo many excellent matchups available. :00x8

OK, stil Ariz. St. to go. I'll be posting some more.

ONE more thing, I know that nobody's gonna think about tailing any of my picks, but I can tellyas this about my record - DO think about pulling a team from my parlays when I list them. Your chances are EXCELLENT - cause just about ALL of them have ALL winners.... cept ONE dang play. Ain't kidding.:cuss:

Good luck and enjoy the games.

 

[Jimboski]

Adding 3 games (Fri and Sat.)

Memphis -9: Have to admit that Md. is looking extremely well lately but have to go with the Tigers. Believe yesterday's fiasco was a bit of a fluke and I dont believe Memphis will let it happen again in their very next game. Terps rank 243rd in field goal scoring among NCAA teams and how many pts. can they put up against the best defensive team (IMO) out there? I expect the Tigers to pick up their pace, compared to yesterday's game, and cover quite easily.

Morehead/Louisville 1ST half, UNDER 61 : Morehead showed a decent defense in their last two games that I watched and after checking the nos. - their record confirms that. You know they ain't gonna do much scoring so I believe it's just a matter of them being able to hold down LV. for a half. LV. is a monster 2nd half team and that is why I am restricting this play to the first half.

Utah St MONEY LINE (+180): My nos. say this one's the Upset Special for today.

Good Luck

 

[Jimboski]

Keep on truckin

Keep on truckin

Just got off phone with some rude bitch at Dimes on account of THEIR mistake in the way they listed a tennis play that I got with Memphis ATS in a 2 teamer. I reported her and had them delete my play after talking to the Bossman there.

Still brewing over that dang 1 point losah on my "Upset Special" for today.

Are we having fun yet? Time to change that avatar - cause that's the reason I'm losing today :violin:

Ok:

Ariz. St. - another WINNER
Utah St. M.L. - another TOUGH Loss

BTW, the tennis play WAS," NOT Djoka wins 2-0". If ya can't get that kind of a play, Roddick@+131 might be worth a SMALL play.

I'm gonna double check tonights action to see about adding something. May be back soon before this thang drops too far down the list.

Good luck, tonight

 

[Jimboski]

late and tomorrow game

late and tomorrow game

Sorry, I can't come up with any more solid single plays for tonight. BUT, I do like this little parlay (acutally, I'm gonna go a LITTLE heavy on it).

It's a deal where I like each play ATS, but really like each with a little booster a lot. That is buying a couple of points. I know this is a bit amatuerish, but hell, I AM an amatuer.

3 units wins 4 1/2 units plus:

Portland St +12
Memphis -6

Aside from, "DJoka does NOT beat Roddick 2 sets to 0 sets"; thats it for today.

Good luck tonight everybody.

 

[Jimboski]

Stick to tennis?

Stick to tennis?

Can't even put a two teamer together. Single plays are holding up though - no time to post my Louisville (-11 1/2) second halfer that got me the parlay loss back. I did post,"Louisville is a monster 2nd half team" and put my money where my ..er keyboard is.

The truth is that it's been parlays with MIXED SPORTS (tennis, football, baskets, and only a little baseball when the seasons overlap but NOT Spring season for bases) that has built up my bankroll in the past.

Portland St. - Losah

Memphis -6 Pending AND worthless now. ( I also got this as a single, side play at -9)

BTW, Roddick (+131) did win in two straight sets.

Right now, only the Memphis play is in. I'm gonna check for something else, but I DON'T play anything for the hell of it cause we're talking moola. I'll post something IF I find something.

If anybody wants me to post a tennis play for tomorrow please chime in - I don't like bending the rules putting tennis picks in the basket forum.

Hope to get back before Sat. games start.

G.L.

 

[Jimboski]

Adding 3

Adding 3

Here's three more plays for Sat.

Washington -1 : Liked the way they looked the other day and if these championships are based on better guards - I'll take Washington's.

Texas +7 1/2: Said I'm sticking with them and I am. Believe they can keep it within the handicap (points) and their big three players have been steadily improving. Duke is a well rounded team but not a big scoring team - again, too many points. Besides, Bob Knight luvs them which is another good reason to go with Tex.

Oklahoma - 6 1/2 TWO UNITS: Just about everythng I look for goes Oakies way. Whether you like them or not - Griffin and Johnson are solid. I had a VERY hard time deciding whether to just take them for the first half because Mich. has a HUGE free throw edge. And I mean HUGE. Look at their top three free throwers compared to Oakie's. Wolverines have 3 players with better than 85% F.T. percentage, Harris is 3rd in the country. That could be trouble once they start the fouling antics late in the game. I decided that Okie just might be enough ahead to avoid the fouling crap late. Also, Homa is a pretty clean (not big on fouls) team, so maybe no bonuses for Mich. Just FYI, first half line is Okla - 3 1/2 and that should be a good play as well

That's it... I'll keep my tennis plays to myself this time.

Good luck today folks.

 

[Jimboski]

One result so far, I THINK

One result so far, I THINK

Gonna go out on a limb and call -

MEMPHIS a WINNER (hell, its 88-67 with one minute + to go.

Thinking about Memphis.... . does anybody need a good laugh ON ME?

In my earlier post, I wrote about the problem I had trying to get a tennis play with Memphis (-6, bought a bunch) for a 2 teamer. Well, I wrote that when I called them after the hassle with the online "help", the manager tells me that he can just delete the tennis play. THEY had DeJoka playing Davydenko... that's wrong, he was playing Roddick, dang it. I checked the box that said, "N. DeJoka wins 2-0, HOPING the bastards just abbreviated "N." for NOT. Then I called to make sure my parlay was registered correctly. Good thing I did cause "N. DeJoka wins 2-0" means Novak Dejokovic wins 2-0, which is EXACTLY what I DON'T want.

Now get this - he must have looked at his watch and sees that Memphis starts at 3:20 and we are talking on the phone at 3:40, so he tells me the best he could do is just cancel the tennis play ("cause Memphis STARTED ALREADY") and NOW I got a SINGLE play on Memphis (-6), UGH!
Maybe I'm just as dumb as he is cause TODAY I realize the DUMB ASS didn't look AT THE FREAKIN DATE (Memphis plays today, not yesterday). Of course the tennis play won and I got stuck with a stinkin ticket with Memphis -6 single play. (yeah, I did play them in a regular (-9 1/2) in a decent sized regular single play late last night though thank Gawd.

Tellyas, IT IS a jungle out there.:banghead:

Thanks for all the views, but could one of the 330+ viewers bring a keyboard with them to keep me interested? Comments (good or bad), or just typing BUMP (so I can find this thing if I come up with a second halfer or a new pick to share with yas for tonight), or hell, just post your plays to help me along. Besides, after I do all the digging to find this thing, that guy in the red shirt (above) in EVERY post makes me dizzy as I scroll down this thing. LOL

No complaints though, just not used to all the activity (viewers and new posts) around here. I came from a forum that could be held in a closet but left after getting tired of posting to myself.

Thanks, folks and good luck to all the rest of the way on the roller coaster ride.

Whew, after typing all this, I see that the Memphis final was 89-76. Looks like that damn single "Memphis -6" ticket should win me a pizza and a six pack for the rest of games tonight. :00hour

 

[Jimboski]

Resutls

Resutls

OK, looks like the games are done CEPT for Texas. See Pittman on the court? (He's the guy with the biggest pair of shorts on)). He IS a whale.... ..er, make that a HELL of a player.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he's a senior and if he continues to train and lose weight like he's been doing - he's IS gonna be a force for other teams to reckon with (hell, he is already for the limited amount of time he can stay in the game at one time. And I am serious about the amount of the time they allow him to stay on the court too.).

Add a LOSAH :mj1:

Washington: Yeah, another last seconds ass burner. What else is new.


And another WINNAH :00hour

Okie : a double your pleasure pick.


Think I'll let this thing just slowly drop in the Mad Jack quicksand for awhile. I gotta change the title whenever I post some some new ones this week. Look for something like," What do you think of these Power Picks?". :shrug:

Hmm.. maybe,"What do you think of these PICKS?" :shrug:

Hollar for the Longhorns NOW Texas fans, Duke is starting to pull away. Only by 5 right now though. But, a LONG(horn) way to go yet.

Good luck the rest of the way gang.
Keep the faith :thumb:

 

[Jimboski]

Sorry, but I gotta post this

Sorry, but I gotta post this

Thought I'd better post this BEFORE the Texas game ends.

It will either prove my point about pulling only ONE team out my parlays (wasn't kidding about that)....

or

Make my day :00hour

Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 3/21/09 8:15pm NCAA Basketball 517 Texas +7? -110 vs Duke
Win 3/21/09 1:05pm NCAA Basketball 522 Villanova -133 vs UCLA
Win 3/21/09 3:20pm NCAA Basketball 524 Memphis U -485 vs Maryland
Win 3/21/09 4:00pm ATP Tennis 101 Andy Murray +115 vs Roger Federer


Goooo L - O - N - G horns

 

[Jimboski]

Just comments so far

Just comments so far

Thanks for all the views wish they did somebody some good (hell, even if they did some bad I'd like to know). Maybe sharing what I think about the tourney so far will get some interest?

Sleeper in tourney:
I don't know about making it the Championship match but, contrary to what I see around here and ALL OVER the net, I've written it before and will write it here - ARIZONA DOES BELONG. For me, my biggest setback that had me puzzled is why they could not beat Ariz. St. twice?? I'll attribute to the intrastate thingy and that State had exceptional good days both times they played. Keep an eye on them Wild Cats.


Easiest scores
In other works - GIFTS from the man. Texas (vs. Minny) and Kansas (vs. Dayton). One reason I really liked Texas is that, unlike other teams that have one or even two outstanding players - Texas has 3 and EACH of them have been continuously improving. IMO, if they (whole team) woulda put a little more practice on free throws, they'd still be in this thing FOR AWHILE longer.
As far as Kansas/Dayton goes - what a no brainer. The shooting stats for Dayton in the matchup nos. are inflated for them. Look at the defenses (FG) of the KEY teams they played. Dayton is a poor field goal team - pretty much a "they can't make baskets" type. Don't think Kansas can pull off the whole thing again this year though.

Biggest blunder
Well, Pittsburgh's play vs. E. Tenn was a surprise. For me, Nova not covering vs. American (who..er, wha??). Like I wrote earlier, these "big" teams vs. the obscure ARE SUCKER PLAYS and I was a sucker biting on one of them.

OK, I see a long line outside waiting to come in and ALL are most welcomed to even though I don't know what they are looking for
Again, they're all carrying clipboards in their hands and nobody has a keyboard. Dang! Would somebody share their comments?
Looks like I'm on target for these basketballers so far and baseball season is next up...AND, I may not post anything NOT because there's no repliels but because I STINK IN BASEBALL and there's no sense in "sharing" losahs. I should add that I did break even last year though cause I starting making my picks by studying TRENDS. But that was the first time in 5 years that I came close to profitable in that "flip a coin" sport.

Gotta go. Somebody's hollaring at me about a TENNIS MATCH just starting now.... you on Rafa? Hope so cause you won't be getting the kind odds on him again for quite awhile.

Good luck the rest of the way in baskets.

 

[Jimboski]

Tennis, anyone??

Tennis, anyone??

Ever since I posted that problem I had with tennis plays ruining my basket parlays (see above post), I haven't lost a tennis match since! And two of the plays were dogs, which are pretty hard to come by in tennis.

Guess I'll be in the TENNIS FORUM come basebawl season.


Anybody want to play this guy for moola?:mj07:

Better yet, anybody know his name??

Ooops almost forgot - play Stanford today.

 

[genosays]

Looks like you have a winner with Stanford tonight, have been watching and appreciate your picks man. Will have to watch tennis forum more often. Thanks again, Geno.

 

[JOHN JAY]

cool enjoyed reading your thread

 

[Jimboski]

Thanks for stopping in guys

Thanks for stopping in guys

(Rubbing my eyes) What the hell? TWO forum members actually signed in my guest book that's right in front of the door to this place!! Wah Hoooo!:00hour

Thanks Geno and JJ (some of my friends call me Jay Jay), you rejuvinated my interest. When you see more jokes than picks - that usually means I'm losing interest. Really glad you enjoy the humor, John Jay.

Back to Business

I actually had two picks for Monday - St. Mary's ATS (see "Dann's" thread about "needing some help' which also has my reasons why I luved Stanford) and Stanford. I didn't play the St. Mary's game, damnit! BUT instead, I doubled my play on Stanford @ pickem (4 units which is a very big play for me). Sheeet, every time I thought about that Stanford game - I liked them more and more. Only wish I woulda thought about it a couple of more times though before game time. LOL (sorry, can't find the dang smiling icon)

The stuff you folks are REALLY interested in

Just preliminary thoughts about the games that are ahead of us - I'm thinking I'm coming up with too many favorites. Gotta force it a little to come up with an upsetter. There must be one. At this point, I AM going (only 1 1/2 units) with :

Mizzu +170: I'm just not seeing that EXTRODINARY defense from Memphis that I saw so often during the season. Further, they've been getting MENTALLY softened up by staying with the "weak" competitors they've been facing so far in this dancing bit and those soft dancing shoes are beginning fit their feet, if you get my drift. Missouri just may be the one (as Oprah would say) to step on their toes. The Tigers are no softies. Hell... ...

- they know how to play away from home (12-6 S.U. and 12-7 ATS)

- they know how to win as DOGS (3-2 S.U. and ATS)

- they know how to beat the pretenders (Neb., Okie St., Marquette, etc)

-they know how to beat CONTENDERS (Texas, Kansas, Okalhoma, Baylor (the RECENT Bears).

And I haven't even gotten into their players strengths and I would but I'm getting blisters on my finger tips.... you know - :talk: blah, blah, blah

Overall, I think I found some good reasons to give them a shot even though I feel like i"m getting screwed with the odds.

I think there's at least 2 solid plays (Ut Oh, watch out for going 1-1, that's one of my specialties) in the upcomming games. To spare my new buddies the hassle of scrolling all the way down this thing to get to them - I'm gonna start a new thread. I'm not big on egoes, like seeking out a 1000 views or stuff like that. I'll also limit, or leave out, comments that may bore yas. Well, as best as I can cause that ain't easy for me to do.

Please look for a new thread and hopefully we can put some icing on the cake before the basebawlers (UGH) take over.

Good luck everybody.

 

[Jimboski]

Sorry bout this post

Sorry bout this post

I was planning on starting a new thread, but I'm sorry - I cannot start off a new thread with a post like this. It probably won't help anybody, BUT it is kinda interesting:

NOTE the Stanford/Ore. St. matchup. What a contradiction that one is, man oh man. You got one of the worst first half teams in the country (Oregon St.) playing a decent first halfter in Stanford.

Now, look at the totals in their first halfs for games between these two teams for this year - NEITHER team wants to score. AND, most of all, look who wins their first half in those games - ORE. St. What the hell is goin on??

Heck, even the WIZARDS of odds can't figure it out (and I ain't being sacastic about calling them wizards cause they got the tools and know how) - as I write this, Dimes has the full game listed, but this is the only game in their listings that doesn't have a companion HALFTIME listing.

Everything I post is based on the (plenty of) time I spend correcting the nos. in the matchup stats and what I know, from watching the teams. Since I cannot come up with anything better today, this post is more of a hunch that I have after trying to reason this puzzle out -

I think it's likely that at least ONE of these teams will continue their "refusal" to score in the first half. Which one... .. :shrug: Also, note that everytime they play - one of these two shots, either from the paint or from crosstown, well below their normal average. Their free throws are very normal ESP. compared to the game shots, so I'm sticking with a first half play. Let's see what the O/U line looks like (if they got the balls to post one) for this game and take the UNDER if it's reasonable. I guess something like 62 +/- 1 would be reasonable. This ain't the greatest way to play these games because the margin of error runs against us. You know - it is HIGHLY likely that the first half total will be between, say 56 - 66.

Misc. stuff

I wrote that I didn't play St. Mary's game, but remembered that I did play (tiny, tiny $) for the 2nd half on Mary's which was a winner. I played Penn St. last night, also second halfer, and that one won. BUT, I got this one with a tennis game (3:30 P.M. today, Wed) in a two teamer. I see that there are people that visit this place are interested in tennis so I might as well share it here - Youzhny@+130 (just checked my pending thingy for the odds).

Here's the deal, in case somebody wants to check it out - Youzhny has always been a MUCH superior player between these two. Heavy hitter with a big serve. Chardy, his opponent, has picked up his game big time lately while Youz. has been deteriorating. I think Youz. only needs to play about 70% of his old game to win this and I also believe that Chardy will have trouble with the return of serve no matter what. But do know that Chardy is the "now guy".

HOPE I can come up with better for Thurs. or Fri.

Good luck MJers.

 

[Jimboski]

Line is out now

Line is out now

It's 58 1/2.

No thanks. I may see something for a second half tonight someplace, if so I'll try to get it posted on time

Oh, and Youzhny WON at nice positive odds so my 2 teamer turned to cash. :00hour

Hope I see something for later, but IF I DONT - nuthin gets posted.

DON'T play for fun cause it ain't no fun losin.:nono: