KC Vs Balt......-3 KC??? Over 44?

[chuckdman]

YTD: 9-5 (+11.3 Units)
Week 3: 3-0 (+7 Units)

Well, its that time again... Looking at early lines and this one stuck out like a sore thumb. I know Baltimore is built on Defense but only giving KC -3 points seems like a bit low. Definately do believe this line will go up since all the money will be going to KC.

Last three Baltimore games have been against weaker teams minus the game vs Pittsburg:... Baltimore is 2-1
Week 3 Balt 24 San Diego 10
Week 2 Balt 33 Clevland 13
Week 1 Balt 15 Pittsburg 34

Last three KC games have also been against weaker teams and 2 of them were against the same team.. KC is 3-0
Week 3 KC 42 Houston 14
Week 2 KC 41 Pit 20
Week 1 KC 27 SD 14

Ok...so Baltimore has a better run game than than any of the teams KC had to face. KC has a run advantage IMO with the Priest and his OF line. At the QB position, Trent Green is better than the new guy in Baltimore, Kyle Boller. Total offense is better in KC. Defensively Baltimore does have a better defense. Special teams is really close but with Dante Hall in KC, he's just magic everytime he touchs the ball. They are playing in Baltimore.. which is an advantage for Baltimore, I guess.

So, in fact it is close but I still like KC here with just -3 points just because of the Priest and Trent Green. Even the over 44 looks ok considering both of teams have scored a lot of points lately...

Any ideas anyone? Anything I am missing. I need to do a lot more homework on this game like injuries, ATS between these two teams etc but...........Boys, Help me out here

Good luck in week 4... also Indy -1.5m, StL/Arz under 45, Pitt/Tenn o44.5

Spread the knowledge.. This week is time for some new tires. Had a near death experience last night

 

[THE KOD]

Re: KC Vs Balt......-3 KC??? Over 44?

Any ideas anyone? Anything I am missing.
Spread the knowledge.. This week is time for some new tires. Had a near death experience last night

..................................

chuckd

Dont you think its about time for a KC letdown. They cant keep up the pace they have been. What are they going to go 16-0 ?

KC looked good taking care of Houston. But this is Baltimore we are talking about, in Baltimore. The Baltimore defense is rock solid. Maybe they can score just enough to win this game.

A good spot for Baltimore to upset KC Chiefs.

The home dogs bark loud in this one.

just my thoughts

KOD

 

[dunclock]

Can't say that I disagree with the pick, will probably buy down to 2-, but the line is about right when you factor in home field. If the game was in KC, at this number of 3, the home field would be -9. Doubt that it would be that high. especially with Baltimore effort the last two weeks. Good luck with your play!

 

[BigSix]

I like KC-3 but I wonder if anyone has any info on how teams do in back to back road games.

 

[GM]

I like KC-3 but I wonder if anyone has any info on how teams do in back to back road games.

Looked some things up.

All stats since the start of the 2001 season:

Teams in the second game of back to back road games: 55-64-4 ATS (46.2%), 50-73 SU (40.7%). Avg margin of defeat = 2.9 pts. And how is THIS for interesting.... O/U = 45-73-5 (61.9% Unders)... stumbled across that stat completely by accident!

Teams in the second game of back to back road games, after winning ATS in the first: 29-30-3 ATS (49.2%), 25-37 SU (40.3%). Under trend holds up again .... O/U = 21-38-3 (64.4% Unders).

Stats for "Teams in the second game of back to back road games, after winning SU are almost identical to ATS.

Anyways, maybe I've found an Under tendency??? Interesting.

 

[BigSix]

Awesome GM!!!

 

[GM]

Is it safe to say this is the best defence KC has faced yet? (SD, Pitt, Hou). I'd say yes.

KC's D would be about average to maybe better than what Balt has faced thus far (Pitt, Clev, SD). Clev may be the best of the lot...Balt torched them, but Clev held Indy and SF to 1 TD combined and a bunch of FG's. Hmmm.

Definitely thinking about the Under now.

Thanks BigSix.

 

[GM]

And for that matter...

And for that matter...

If this is a winning angle, it also would apply to these games this weekend, involving teams playing their 2nd straight on the road:

Jacksonville (didn't cover last week)
Green Bay (didn't cover)
Dallas (covered, but they had a bye in-between games so I have no idea if that messes things up)

Really gotta look into this further.

 

[BigSix]

More numbers to chew on

Avg rushing yrds per play
KC 4.7
BAl 5.9

Avg Passing yrds per play
KC 7
Bal 3.6

 

[BigSix]

Not sure about Jax, GB or Dallas but the U in the KC/Balt game looks like $$$.

 

[Vegas Dave]

Is this Priest's first game against his former team?

 

[gman2]

not sure why people are sold on chiefs as title contenders.

they have played 3 very porous defenses.

not saying ravens are a play (although i like em). just sayin to keep everything in context.

kansas city offense gonna get a big time test this week when they actually face an nfl defense.

pittsburgh's defense is nowhere near what it used to be, and san diego and the texans are two true doormats.

 

[acer69]

Steelers didn't seem to have a problem with the Ravens D. Granted it was at Pitt. Chiefs D is much more improved than last year and their team chemistry is excellent. IMO Chiefs just have to many weapons and should cover the number. Under may be a play as well.

 

[THE KOD]

kansas city offense gonna get a big time test this week when they actually face an nfl defense.

..................................

I wish this was a Monday Night Football game.

Home dog barks loud and hard.


KOD

 

[Baltimore-Bull]

I to like the unders in this one, i see a close, tight to the vest, control the clock, conservitive game out of K.C. and a strugiling offence for my boys.

 

[On Top]

chuckd

I haven't posted much, but I've been reading the forums for a long time. I am definitely with KOD on this one. Time for a KC letdown.

I just did a quick count, hope this is right. KC has scored 15 TDs in 1st 3 games, 4 of them defense or special teams. Isn't that aolot? They're not going to score on def/s.t. every game, and they're not going to blow everyone out, and they're not going to go 16-0. BTW, same logic applies to Den, I'll be on Det Sunday.

 

[Hooks]

Ravens get the bye next week, full concentration, Chiefs have to host the Denver Broncos, advantage Baltimore.

 

[chuckdman]

Just another reason.....

Just another reason.....

Why this is the best damn forum in the world. Thanks for all the feedback and knowledge everyone spreads here. I would have placed a early one on KC for some big $$ but after reading all these great points, I think I am just going to lay off this game. Baltimore's D is something that KC has not seen yet. Offensively I would get KC the thumbs up, actually LOTS more than Balitimore but Hooks brings up a good point about Balitmore having a bye week next week. They will be up to the challenge. KC will not go 16-0 but they are better defensively than last year and will do very well unless of course injuries screw them....

Considering all, both teams have great run games and will keep it on the ground a lot unless it starts to become a blow out either way which I can't really see happening. I think logic says under 44 is nice..... probably will drop too by Sunday so will post my early plays by tomorrow.

Good Luck Boys and Girls!

 

[Statman02]

faves are really dominating the NFL this year and the strongest category is road faves currently 10/3 .769.....avg score 24-13.6....AMOV +10.4.......is this the week the dogs start to catch up ??......I don't know but it seems to me that when something is really out of whack like this it usually takes about 4 weeks to start turning around......I know I have recieved a lot of "dog bites" this year

 

[THE KOD]

Re: Just another reason.....

Re: Just another reason.....

. I would have placed a early one on KC for some big $$ but after reading all these great points, I think I am just going to lay off this game. .

...................................

chuckdman

I dont understand when cappers see things in a differant way and then decide to lay off a game.

Sometimes that is the exact time to make the play.

Its all about risk. And how many times have we lost games because of taking the comfortable favorite playing well.

The favorite KC is on the road and they may end up looking like the New York Giants on MNF . They couldnt scratch their ass in that game..but they won Washington the next week.... or how the Buffalo Bills sadsackers looked against Miami.....That was a good team there that looked pathetic on this night in Miami.

KC is going to have that look too. It is the look of defeat and if we recognize it, we can make some big cash.

I am thinking it just may be this weekend for the Chiefs.

Home dog Baltimore Ravens barking loud.

KOD