KC Vs Balt......-3 KC??? Over 44?

[RipIt3]

I'm not sold on Baltimore's D this year, I personally think they're over-rated...

Through three weeks, here are their D rankings and numbers:

Total Defense :

Yards/Game: 13, 301


Rush Defense

Rush Yards/Game: 15, 93.3
Rush Yards/Carry: 8, 3.3
TD Allowed: T14, 2


Pass Defense

Pass Yards/Game: 17, 225.7
Pass Yards/Attempt: 13, 6.10
TD Allowed: T15, 4
Sacks: T14, 6


My point is this: They're numbers are right about at the middle of the league, from rush-pass-total. But they haven't played a great offense yet. SD, Cle and Pit. Pit is the best of the three and they ran up 34 points on them ... and Pit's line isn't very good. Tommy Maddux through for 260 yards, 3 TD's against them and they gave almost 100 yards on the ground - to who? Amos Zeroue and Bettis?

I would be cautious about putting too much stock in their D, the only team that had an NFL offense to test it ran up the score on them, beating them 34-15. The one stat that is top half of the league is rush yards/attempt - a very telling stat.

The one team they've faced that has a decent running back/running attack is SD after they finally starting giving the ball to LT. LT ran for 105, 4.6 yards/carry, and a score --- and he doesn't have the O-Line that Priest Holmes has. I dunno, just some thoughts.

GL!

 

[GM]

Teams in the second game of back to back road games: 55-64-4 ATS (46.2%), 50-73 SU (40.7%). Avg margin of defeat = 2.9 pts. And how is THIS for interesting.... O/U = 45-73-5 (61.9% Unders)... stumbled across that stat completely by accident!

Teams in the second game of back to back road games, after winning ATS in the first: 29-30-3 ATS (49.2%), 25-37 SU (40.3%). Under trend holds up again .... O/U = 21-38-3 (64.4% Unders).

...maybe I've found an Under tendency??? Interesting.

Well it worked for today at least. Wins on the Unders in KC and Dallas (assuming the bye doesn't negate the system). A loss in the Jax game.

Green Bay is playing their 2nd-straight roadie tonight. Personally I'm not sure I like the Under tonight, but if I've got no solid opinion on the total by game time maybe I'll throw a small "fun" bet on the Under just for the hell of it.

And there are a slew of teams next week playing their 2nd-straight on the road: Tenn, Cin, Ariz, SD, Det and Indy. Will keep tracking this and see if it produces winners.

 

[chuckdman]

Should have listened to my gut

Should have listened to my gut

Liked KC from the get go but a lot of Baltimore talk made me pass on the game. You guys helped me on the Under KC/Balt too but I again passed on the game

Well, I guess 5-0 in Week 4 isn't so bad anyways!!!

Good luck on Monday Night Boys..Probably won't play it but I like the under as well.. 41 is alot of points for two bad offense teams.. Mind you we also have 2 bad defenses going at it.. hard one.. Bears might even get their first win of the year