Just to start off - Warning, I ain't familiar with any of these cream of the crop 3 yr. olds and haven't had any success finding a Kentucky Derby wiener in quite some time. BUT, I did use my most comprehensive capping methods in trying to figure out this 1000 piece puzzle.
For Philly, I get my figures/plicks and then check some cappers selections afterwards to see if I missed something. I almost always play the figures I come up with, not theirs. Today's Derby is a great example of this. The consensus out there is that Justify is a cinch today and I ain't feeling it one bit. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by open lengths. But, without knowing anything at all about these 3 yr. olds - my first intentions are to throw out the favorite in a race like this. We all know the reasons (now) supporting why not to bet Justify and considering them vs. the reason(s) we should bet this favorite which, IMO, is only ONE spectacular race to his credit and possibly the jockey/trainer. They aren't enough for me to put that one in the Wieners Circle. F'rinstance, what has he down away from ONE twack in Cal?, against a field of 20, as a 2 yr. old? And there's even more like how how is he gonna do fighting the other speedsters and there's quite a few of them and (2) will he face some traffic before getting to them IF HE Does. You might consider what the 19 other jocks may do about their dilemma facing him with such a BIG payday today? Anybody here remember Spectacular Bid? If I remember correctly, I think that horse had this problem way back when Franklin has something to say about :cursin: them after that race.
After plenty of hours with this handicapping "project", perhaps all for naught - here's what I gots which are not in the order of preference:
Three plicks cause can you can bet 3, win only, and still make it all worhwhile... . .
No.5 Audible 6/1 M.L.
No.6 Good Magic 12/1 M.L.
No.11 Bolt d' Oro 8/1 M.L. OR No.16 Magnum Moon 6/1 - sorry, I have to see how these two look and their odds before picking ONE of them. I think both of these may go off at similar odds.
OR
Just play the fun part, These two BOMBERS were really in my top section of plicks. Hey, Donald Trump won the Pres. Election, right?:
No.17 Solomini and No.15 Instilled Regard. I AM thinking about skipping the above bets and go with BOTH of these for W/Pl/Show(at 3x). I do have a preference between these two, it's the latter. Still, no way I'll leave the no. 17 out.
Visitors who read my stuff know about the "Zackta SYS". It has come through picking some VERY NICE exactas at good ole Philly. Here's it's Derby exacta plicks:
5,7 top/bot with 5,6,7,12. You know somthing? - I'm really liking that 5,7 on one side of the zackta, not so much the 5,6,7,12 on the other. I just might use the 5,7 on one side of the zackta bets and change some on the other side. I CAN TELLYAS THAT THE 17 AND THE 15 WILL BE TWO OF THE NOS. ON THE OTHER SIDE.
Lastly, there are two dang downsides to the Derby this year. One is Justify catching the post pos. he got. For exotic players, buying a hand full of tickets makes plenty of sense in a race like this and especially if I'm right about the no. 7 not getting the Win spot. But, each additional horse you add to your tickets begins to make the bet size ($) too big. That leads us to the other BIGGER downside ---> that there Mendellssohn hoss. Where the hell does that one go in the puzzle anyway? :banghead:
I'll be watching the Philly dirt bags today and may post a best bet of the day for Philly later.
Good Luck with the BIG GUNS in the Derby. I'm looking forward to watching it. too.
For Philly, I get my figures/plicks and then check some cappers selections afterwards to see if I missed something. I almost always play the figures I come up with, not theirs. Today's Derby is a great example of this. The consensus out there is that Justify is a cinch today and I ain't feeling it one bit. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins by open lengths. But, without knowing anything at all about these 3 yr. olds - my first intentions are to throw out the favorite in a race like this. We all know the reasons (now) supporting why not to bet Justify and considering them vs. the reason(s) we should bet this favorite which, IMO, is only ONE spectacular race to his credit and possibly the jockey/trainer. They aren't enough for me to put that one in the Wieners Circle. F'rinstance, what has he down away from ONE twack in Cal?, against a field of 20, as a 2 yr. old? And there's even more like how how is he gonna do fighting the other speedsters and there's quite a few of them and (2) will he face some traffic before getting to them IF HE Does. You might consider what the 19 other jocks may do about their dilemma facing him with such a BIG payday today? Anybody here remember Spectacular Bid? If I remember correctly, I think that horse had this problem way back when Franklin has something to say about :cursin: them after that race.
After plenty of hours with this handicapping "project", perhaps all for naught - here's what I gots which are not in the order of preference:
Three plicks cause can you can bet 3, win only, and still make it all worhwhile... . .
No.5 Audible 6/1 M.L.
No.6 Good Magic 12/1 M.L.
No.11 Bolt d' Oro 8/1 M.L. OR No.16 Magnum Moon 6/1 - sorry, I have to see how these two look and their odds before picking ONE of them. I think both of these may go off at similar odds.
OR
Just play the fun part, These two BOMBERS were really in my top section of plicks. Hey, Donald Trump won the Pres. Election, right?:
No.17 Solomini and No.15 Instilled Regard. I AM thinking about skipping the above bets and go with BOTH of these for W/Pl/Show(at 3x). I do have a preference between these two, it's the latter. Still, no way I'll leave the no. 17 out.
Visitors who read my stuff know about the "Zackta SYS". It has come through picking some VERY NICE exactas at good ole Philly. Here's it's Derby exacta plicks:
5,7 top/bot with 5,6,7,12. You know somthing? - I'm really liking that 5,7 on one side of the zackta, not so much the 5,6,7,12 on the other. I just might use the 5,7 on one side of the zackta bets and change some on the other side. I CAN TELLYAS THAT THE 17 AND THE 15 WILL BE TWO OF THE NOS. ON THE OTHER SIDE.
Lastly, there are two dang downsides to the Derby this year. One is Justify catching the post pos. he got. For exotic players, buying a hand full of tickets makes plenty of sense in a race like this and especially if I'm right about the no. 7 not getting the Win spot. But, each additional horse you add to your tickets begins to make the bet size ($) too big. That leads us to the other BIGGER downside ---> that there Mendellssohn hoss. Where the hell does that one go in the puzzle anyway? :banghead:
I'll be watching the Philly dirt bags today and may post a best bet of the day for Philly later.
Good Luck with the BIG GUNS in the Derby. I'm looking forward to watching it. too.
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