Hey Axle.....The weeks are counting down to May 3rd.....
It's Post Time
By Jon White
MARCH MADNESS
What is with the radical decline in the Beyer Speed Figure department this month by undefeated 3-year-olds? Is this racing?s version of March Madness?
Giant Moon won his initial three career starts with Beyers of 83, 84 and 82 before a career-high 93 when he took the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 5.
And then, in the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aquedcuct on March 8, Giant Moon suffered his first loss while recording a puny Beyer of 17. That?s right, a 17. Look, it?s tough enough to win a race at Penn National or Portland Meadows with a 17, let alone a graded stakes race like the Gotham.
J Be K registered a 99 Beyer Speed Figure when he broke the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs with a 1:03.13 clocking in his career debut at Saratoga last Aug. 29. He then earned a 91 when victorious in his 2008 debut against allowance rivals on a wet track at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 15.
But after a pair of Beyers in the 90s, J Be K dropped way off to a 67 when he finished eighth in the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 8.
The Beyer madness continued last weekend. War Pass, winner of last year?s Grade I Champagne Stakes and Grade I Breeders? Cup Juvenile on his way to an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male, went into Saturday?s Grade III Tampa Bay Derby undefeated and untested in five lifetime starts. There were comparisons by some, including Andrew Beyer of The Washington Post, to 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.
War Pass earned an 84 Beyer Speed Figure when unveiled at Saratoga last July 28, followed by figures last year of 94, 103 and 113. That 113 is the highest in the history of the Breeders? Cup Juvenile, surpassing the Beyers earned by such other winners of that race as Street Sense (108), Vindication (102), Johannesburg (99), Macho Uno (99 while defeating Point Given), Favorite Trick (101 en route to the Horse of the Year title), Unbridled?s Song (103), Timber Country (100) and Arazi (101).
Remember Arazi and his electrifying Breeders? Cup Juvenile victory in 1991? Well, from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, it did not come close to what War Pass did last fall in the Juvenile.
After posting Beyers of 84, 94, 103 and 113 as a 2-year-old, War Pass earned a 97 when he kicked off his 3-year-old campaign in a 7 1/2-length allowance victory (which was essentially a paid workout) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 24.
And then, from that 97, War Pass earned a meager 53 Beyer while struggling home last as a 1-20 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. A 53 is a pretty good Will Rogers Downs-like number, not one generally associated with a champion.
Considering what has happened to Giant Moon, J Be K and War Pass this month, it?s probably just as well that the connections of undefeated Denis of Cork elected to skip last Saturday?s Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park since that race is in March. Denis of Cork instead is scheduled to make his next start in either the Grade I Wood Memorial or Grade II Illinois Derby. Fortunately those races are in April (April 5, to be exact).
And what about Big Brown? He earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure when he romped to an 11 1/4-length debut win on the turf at Saratoga last year, followed by a 104 Beyer in his monstrous 12 3/4-length victory in his dirt debut at Gulfstream Park on March 5.
Big Brown is to make his next start in the Grade I Florida Derby. The Florida Derby will be renewed on March 29. Oh-oh. Will the March madness continue and Big Brown?s Florida Derby plunge? We?ll have to wait and see.
Meanwhile, what in the heck happened to War Pass at Tampa Bay Downs? Yes, he was pinched back at the start. But that alone does not really explain such a poor performance. In a Daily Racing Form story Sunday by Mike Welsch, trainer Nick Zito said War Pass sustained ?some cuts on his left leg? that the trainer surmises were a result of being jostled around leaving the gate.
On Monday, Zito told Jay Privman of the DRF that he remained ?baffled? by the champ?s race.
Zito said: ?We scoped him. Everything was perfect. We took X-rays. No change. We?ll keep taking more today. He?ll go back to the track on Wednesday. I?m baffled right now. We know that whatever happened, that wasn?t him. That we know.?
There has been quite an outcry over the widely reported characterization that War Pass competed in the Tampa Bay Derby after having a fever earlier in the week. That is what owner Robert LaPenta was reported to have told some members of the media immediately after the race.
I found that extremely hard to believe. Why would a great trainer like Nick Zito run War Pass if he weren?t right? That would be hard enough to believe if it were the Kentucky Derby, let alone the Tampa Bay Derby. With a plethora of Derby preps, there?s absolutely no reason for Zito to run War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby if something were amiss.
?He did not have a fever,? Zito told Privman. ?Fever means you?re sick. On my mother?s life, he never missed an oat. His temperature was a little high, just slightly, last Sunday [March 9], but he was fine the rest of the week. Just to make sure, we took a blood [test] on him on Thursday, and it was perfect. He did not have a fever. That?s not why he got beat. Why did he get beat? That?s what we?ve got to find out.?
As of now, Zito is inclined to dismiss War Pass? Tampa Bay debacle and stick to the plan to run in the Wood Memorial on April 5. However, the Hall of Famer has reserved the right to pull the plug on that plan should he see something he doesn?t like in the colt?s training between now and the Wood.
Despite what happened in the Tampa Bay Derby, I still respect War Pass. He?s obviously a talented colt. Personally, I can picture him being a very tough customer in a race like the Met Mile. But even before War Pass ran a clunker at Tampa Bay Downs, I just couldn?t picture him winning the roses. As I wrote last week, in my opinion, Pyro looks much more like a horse capable of winning at 1 1/4 miles under 126 pounds on the first Saturday in May than War Pass.
While the focus understandably was on War Pass? stunning loss in the Tampa Bay Derby, Big Truck deserves credit for winning the race, especially since he didn?t have the best of trips. Big Truck was shuffled back going into the far turn, then came on inexorably in the stretch to prevail by a neck at 7-1. Atoned ran second at 9-1.
Big Truck is a New York-bred trained by Barclay Tagg, who saddled New York-bred Funny Cide to win the 2003 Kentucky Derby. A son of Hook and Ladder, Big Truck earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure in the Tampa Bay Derby. So it?s not as if the bar was set high for War Pass by the winner running some sort of huge Beyer. Big Truck is a grandson of Go for Gin, who won the 1994 Kentucky Derby for Zito.
In other graded stakes action for 3-year-olds last Saturday, California-bred Georgie Boy proved a punctual 7-5 favorite in Santa Anita?s Grade II San Felipe Stakes for trainer Kathy Walsh. Another Cal-bred, Sierra Sunset, won Oaklawn Park?s Grade II Rebel Stakes by three emphatic lengths for trainer Jeff Bonde.
Georgie Boy did not have an ideal trip.
?He was blocked in behind horses [turning for home],? Walsh said. [Jockey Michael Baze] had so much horse all the way around. When [Georgie Boy] got to the quarter pole, he was just waiting for a spot. He had no place to go, and he?s a smart enough horse he wasn?t going to run up on horses? heels. Michael did a nice job on him.?
Walsh indicated Monday that Georgie Boy will probably run next in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 5, with the Grade II Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 12 as a back-up plan.
In the San Felipe, Georgie Boy earned only a 92 Beyer, down from his career-best 103 when he won the Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 10. The gelded son of Tribal Rule also took the Grade I Del Mar Futurity as a 2-year-old when earning an 88 Beyer.
Georgie Boy became only the third horse to win both the Del Mar Futurity and San Felipe. The other two were Your Host and Bertrando.
After Your Host won the 1950 San Felipe, he went on to win the Santa Anita Derby and break the track record for seven furlongs at Keeneland. He finished ninth as the 8-5 favorite in Middleground?s Kentucky Derby.
After Bertrando won the 1992 San Felipe, he finished second to A.P. Indy in the Santa Anita Derby. Bertrando did not start again at 3. He later would be voted an Eclipse Award as champion older male of 1993.
Sierra Sunset, a son of Bertrando, was clearly the Beyer Speed Figure star among sophomores last Saturday. He recorded a 99 Beyer in the Rebel.
Last year?s Rebel winner also earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. You may have heard of that colt. His name is Curlin.
Curlin, of course, would go on to win the Arkansas Derby (105 Beyer), Preakness Stakes (111), Jockey Club Gold Cup (114) and Breeders? Cup Classic (119) en route to the 2007 Horse of the Year title.
What does the future hold for this year?s Rebel winner? Who knows? But Sierra Sunset is a very good 3-year-old who seems better on the dirt than on synthetic surfaces.
In his last three starts on the dirt, Sierra Sunset streaked to an eight-length win in the Bay Meadows Juvenile last Sept. 15, finished second to Denis of Cork in the Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 18, then won the Rebel.
In four starts on a synthetic track, Sierra Sunset finished ninth in the Grade III Hollywood Juvenile Championship last July 4, won the California Cup Juvenile at Oak Tree on Nov. 3, ran sixth in the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 22 and finished fourth in the Grade III San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 12.
Sierra Sunset is to remain at Oaklawn Park to go next in the Arkansas Derby, which, despite being a Grade II instead of a Grade I as it should be, has become an increasingly key race in recent years.
Arkansas Derby winners Curlin (Preakness), Afleet Alex (Preakness and Belmont Stakes) and Smarty Jones (Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes) have won five of the last 12 Triple Crown races.
Z Fortune finished fifth as the 7-10 favorite in last Saturday?s Rebel. The Siphon colt, like Sierra Sunset, will likely make his next start in the Arkansas Derby, according to his trainer, Steve Asmussen.
With their losses last Saturday, War Pass and Z Fortune dropped off this week?s Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. They can earn their way back on it down the line. Georgie Boy returns to the list this week, while Sierra Sunset is appearing on it for the first time.
Here is this week?s list:
1. Pyro
2. Denis of Cork
3. Cool Coal Man
4. Elysium Fields
5. Colonel John
6. El Gato Malo
7. Georgie Boy
8. Big Brown
9. Visionaire
10. Sierra Sunset
Equibase Company is the Official Supplier of Thoroughbred Racing Information to XpressBet?. ?2008