Kentucky Oaks & Derby Selections

[Mully]

Kentucky Oaks

Very hard to pick a single in this race, as this is in my opinion the most wide open Oaks in quite some time. I could make a legitimate case for 7 that could win. Throw outs are the 7,8,9,10,11,12,14 and 15. Don't feel any of these horses can hit the board. So were down these.

1 On Fire Baby- Had the fasted Speed Figure of the group last time out and must be considered. I Don't like the fact she hasn't raced in 55 Days. If not for that might be my top selection.

2 Grace Hall- Very hard not to like today. Speaks volumes that Castellano chose this gal over Broadways Alibi. Has the 2nd highest Speed Figure avg over the past 3 races in the field. MY SECOND CHOICE

3 Summer Applause - The wild card in the race. Has show good form, but has gotten better in each of the last 3. First time Gomez is the main factor I'm using her.

4 Edens Moon- Baffert and Garcia. Nice combo and my boys down south say its the wise guy play.

5 Hard Not to Like- Has the 3 highest Speed Figure avg over the past 3 races in the field. If the race sets up for a closer, Shes the one.

6 Broadways Alibi-- Simply the fastest horse in the race and is my top pick,However Castellano opted off for the 2 horse. Still Velazquez is as solid as they come. MY FIRST CHOICE

13 Amies Dini- 4th fastest Speed Figure avg over the past 3 races coming in. Court knows this gal and the class is top notch. MY THRID CHOICE


So, anyway heres my plays...


Excata 2,6,13 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,13

Trifecta 2,6,13 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,13 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,13

Oaks Derby Double 2,6,13, with 3,4,5,8,14,15

Will have my Derby plays and breakdown tonight.

GL Players...

 

[Mully]

Fuck the right ups...

The 8 or 14 WILL WIN THE DERBY.

:0074

DONT BET UNION RAGS TO WIN. might hit the board, but won't win.


GL and goodnight

:0008

 

[airportis]

lots of rumors swirling about Creative Cause...my top pick as well but lots of rumors going around that he isnt right....trainer says hes fine though :shrug:

 

[Jimboski]

You got that right, airportis. Don't get it??

TWO outstanding works, 4 furlongs in 47 4/5ths and 5 furlongs in a tick over 1 min. flat. Those are exactly the workout distances I look for in races like this one.
Are the timers broken or something?

The downside on this one ain't the works that's for sure.. it's the HORSE. High strung, nervous sucker whose gonna act up with all the hoopla going on today. Good jockey, but this one is a hand full.

 

[airportis]

LOUISVILLE, Ky. ? Backstretch rumors before the 9 a.m. deadline yesterday had one of the top contenders, 12-1 Creative Cause, scratching out of today?s Kentucky Derby, which would have allowed My Adonis, the first also-eligible in Derby history, to move into the 20-horse starting field.

But the deadline came and passed, with Creative Cause still in the race. He still could scratch today.

The rumors started Wednesday, when Creative Cause did not go to the track for a gallop and merely walked the shed row on the second day after his Monday workout. Trainer Mike Harrington said that was standard operating procedure.

The rumblings heated up in the morning, when Creative Cause went to the track but did not gallop and just jogged. Afterward, a veterinarian was seen going into his barn.

?He came bouncing off the racetrack,? Harrington said of his California-based colt, who won the San Felipe and was beaten a nose in the Santa Anita Derby. ?I don?t know where this stuff starts.The vet came by because he lost a shoe. It?s no big deal.?

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more...ched_yet_qVJUcLV6dZThQWehSLMlRO#ixzz1tzMIbswx

 

[Mully]

Some key trends...


The last time a Derby winner finished 4th or worse in their final prep race was 1957

A horse has never won the Derby without at least 1 start at 1 1/8

Throw out horses with a new Jockey on board. They only won twice

86% of all Derby winners have had 3 or more starts as a 3 year old

87% of all Derby winners raced their last prep 5 weeks or less prior to the Big race

Throw out any horse whos last prep race was not 1/18 They simply dont win

Only 5 times in all Derbys has the winning horse had a dosage index of 4.00 or greater

47 of the past 49 Derbys the winner ran 1st or 2nd in either of the past 2 starts

88% of all Derby winners had a Speed Fig of at least 100 in 1 of their last 3 preps

7% off all Derby winners drew outside of post 15

Only 3 of the past 77 Derby winners have had less than 6 career starts.

88% of Derby Winners won a race of atleast 1 mile as a two year old.

88% of all Derby have won a graded stakes race



ONLY 2 HORSES IN THIS YEARS FIELD QUALIFY FOR ALL OF THESE TRENDS...


HANSEN & CREATIVE CAUSE

 

[IowaFats]

Big Mully, my man, good to see your Derby picks. No Union Rags, really?

I'm going with 4, 15 / 4, 15 / some late closers - probably 5, 10 and maybe a couple others.

 

[Mully]

Big Mully, my man, good to see your Derby picks. No Union Rags, really?

I'm going with 4, 15 / 4, 15 / some late closers - probably 5, 10 and maybe a couple others.

I liked Union Rags, but I swear, EVERYONE out at the downs and that I know is on the horse. If theres one thing ive learned betting over the years, when the masses go one way, Its best to go the other.

GL Wilbon Ill have Monica pour you a drink..lol

 

[IowaFats]

Monica still works out there? Nice!