AFTER AFEW YEARS OF HIT AND MISS AS A HANDICAPPER, I DECIDED TO TAKE A DIFFERENT APPROACH. I REASONED THAT LINESMAKERS ALMOST INVARIABLY GET A 50/50 SPLIT ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS.......YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT, THE NUMBERS ARE ALMOST DEAD EVEN. SO, IM NOT A STUDENT OF STATISTIC AND PROBABILITY, BUT I REASONED PLAYING UNDERDOGS WOULD GIVE TWO CHANCES OF WINNING OPPOSED TO BETTING A FAVORITE. IN ADDITION, PLAYING THE UNDERDOG IS ALMOST THE BETTER VALUE IN TERMS OF NUMBERS. SO I FOCUS ON COACHES WHO HAVE A HISTORY FOR RALLYING THERE CHARGES IN THE DOG ROLE OR TEAMS THAT PERFORM WELL IN THE DOG ROLE BECAUSE THE PUBLIC DOES NOT WANT TO BACK THEM. I WOULD SET FOR HOURS AND CRUNCH NUMBERS AND TECHNICAL AND SITUATIONAL FACTORS UNTIL I THOUGHT I HADE THE RIGHT SIDE...........THEN ON SUNDAYS I WOULD HAVE THIS PERPEXING LOOK ON MY FACE AS MY TEAM LOST BY 4 TDS. MOST OF MY HANDICAPPING IS DONE IN THE PRESEASON. I HAVE A 7 YEAR DATABASE OF HOW THESE TEAMS PERFOFMED IN THE UNDERDOG ROLE WITH THERE WINNING PERCENTAGES. SOME TEAMS I PLAY AS A +7 DOG OR BETTER, SOME AS A +3 0R BETTER, WHICH DENVER FALLS INTO. SOME TEAMS I WILL ONLY PLAY IN THE HOMEDOG ROLE. I REALIZE I COULD BE WRITING THE BOOK HANDICAPPING FOR DUMMIES, BUT IN 21 YEARS OF SPORTS BETTING JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT CANT HAPPEN IT DOES........ESPECIALLY IN THE NFL. YEARS AGO I WENT TO TEXAS AND WORKED MY ASS OFF ON THE DRILLING RIGS AND SAVED EVERY PENNY I MADE SO I COULD START BETTING A DIME A GAME. TODAY, THIS IS HOW I MAKE MY LIVING. I WENT 34-15 ATS IN THE NFL LAST YEAR, MY FRIENDS THINK IM A GENIUS, BUT IF THEY ONLY KNEW HOW SIMPLE MY APPROACH WAS THEY WOULD LAUGH. I WAS TALKING UP MICHIGAN ALL LAST WEEK VS ND AND PEOPLE THOUGHT I WAS CRAZY. I WAS NERVOUS BEFORE KICKOFF, BUT WHEN MY PLAY ON SHEET CALLS FOR ME TO MAKE A PARTICULAR PLAY I FIND MY BEST LINE AND GO WITH IT. I NEVER DEVIATE FROM MY PLAY ON TEAMS AND START CHASING OTHERS. FOR INSTANCES, LIVING IN NEW ORLEANS I GOT A GOOD BEAT ON THE SAINTS......AND I FELT THEY WOULD BE VASTLY IMPROVED THIS YEAR, BUT BECAUSE THEY DONT HAVE A GOOD HISTORY FOR PERFORMING AS A SMALL DOG, I WILL ONLY PLAY THEM AT +7 OR MORE. IN THE NFL, MY PLAY ON TEAMS HAVE BEEN THE SAME FOR 6 YEARS.........AND EVERY YEAR I WIN. SOME YEARS ARE BIGGER THEN OTHERS, BUT I ALWAYS SHOW A PROFIT......A NICE PROFIT. I DO THE SAME IN COLLEGE. I SET UP MY 7 YEAR DATABASE AND LIST WHAT MY RECORD WOULD HAVE BEEN FOR THAT PARTICULAR YEAR AND GO WITH IT. I WILL SPEND A WEEK READING PHIL STEELES COLLEGE PREVIEW, BUT OTHER THEN THAT I DONT PAY MUCH ATTENTION TO ANYONE ELSE IN THE MEDIA........ESPECIALLY ESPN OR THE USA TODAY. SOMETIMES I BELIEVE THERE ON THE PAYROLL FOR OFFSHORE AND VEGAS BOOKS. SO, IN REGARDS TO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT WHY I LIKE DENVER +7 VS NE.........BECAUSE IM MARRIED TO DENVER WHENEVER CATCHING +3 OR MORE.........AND THATS FOR BETTER OR WORSE. WHENEVER JAX, WASH, CAR, AND DENVER ARE CATCHING +3 OR MORE IM GONNA GET MY BEST LINE AND JUST CLOSE MY EYES. I BELIEVE MOST HANDICAPPERS OVER COMPLICATE THEMSELVES. I HAVE LEARNED TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. ALL THE ANAYLSIS WOULD MAKE SENSE IF THE 2 TEAMS PLAYED THE PERFECT GAME........MISTAKE FREE, BUT HOW MANY GAMES HAVE YOU SEEN WHERE TURNOVERS AND PENALTIES DIDNT DECIDE THE GAME. AGAIN, PEOPLE WHO KNOW ME THINK IM THIS SHARP PLAYER WHO TROUBLE SHOOTS NUMBERS ALL DAY, BUT LITTLE DO THEY KNOW, I KNOW I KNOW WHO IM BETTING AS SOON AS I LOOK AT THE PAPER MONDAY MORNING
