Live Dog

[Don Wallace]

Remember in week 1# I discussed that playing rookie QBs in there 1st ever NFL start UNDER the total was very profitable. We cashed with the UNDER 43.5 when Phillip Rivers took the reins vs Oakland. Vince Young is in a precarious spot today in his 1st NFL start. The total is 37, but the UNDER is really worth a look. Think Parcells will formulate a run based game plan with TO out.......and rely on his defense to control and confuse Young. This is not the Big 12 or preseason........welcome to the NFL V Young.

 

[Hokie Fan]

TO is starting......

 

[Don Wallace]

Wow, I made my NFL plays early in the week and have been so wraped up in college football, I didnt even know. Thanks for the heads up. Nonetheless, he will probably see limited action and mostly be used as a decoy. Im looking for a 24-10 type game. I never bet favorites, especially a road favorite, but I did, I would play the Cowboys here and lay the number............Tenn, is a very bad football team.

 

[slickjim]

Great day Don! What are your thoughts on the Bears game and total, I usually dont figure a starter being out in Alexander tonight. I still believe Bears and under is the pick!

 

[yanno]

Jesus H. Christmas, Don. You are very good. I rarely post or pick because of business and other involvements, but did read your background and angles and was very impressed. Today was GREAT!! Am thinking you are 3-1 so far. And so am I also, thanks to you. What impresses me most is that these games are ones that I would NOT have picked by myself. I had some other winners, for example Buffalo, not posted, but am just saying that you have a very orginal take on things.

SO...thank you, that's it. Take it easy on the Crown and try some Thirty Creek if you get a chance (it beats Crown and is #1 in the international rye whiskey competitions, even the very premium Crown). I would get you some if I knew howto get it to you, just as a thanks from Canada for what you have done for this Board so far. And btw...keep up the class, ignore the snotty posts and cool the whiteboy comments.

YOU ARE GOOD, hope you are around for a while.

 

[Don Wallace]

Yanno, thank you! Subsequent to a 4-4 ATS in college and a 1-4ATS in the NFL..........Ive gone 12-3 ATS in the last two weeks. Still have Green Bay on deck +11 but feel very confident about that play. I specialize in underdogs, and because thats all I handicapp, Ive got a good read on some teams. One team I was completely wrong about was Arizona. I dont think you could bring in Parcells and his staff to coach, with Manning and Alexander on the offense I do better than 4-12. That franchise just doesnt know how to win. They really let me down today. They didnt even compete. I thought they had a chance to be vastly improved this year.........but they still have a way to go. One thing that I did learn today, theres two young QBs in the NFL that are going to be around for a long time, Lefweich and Grossman. Both have the makings of being big time players for a long time. What do you mean, cool it on the WHITEBOY COMMENTS?..........I am white. You people in Canada dont have the same librel politically correct garbage as the States do you? I thought your media was different.

 

[Don Wallace]

Slickjim, you want to know what I think about the Bears............I think there probably going to the Superbowl. Who in the NFC will get past that defense?

 

[Chill]

Good work DON.

Looks like your gonna have a great season.

what do you think about tampa +7 next week?

 

[Don Wallace]

Wow, +7 is alot of wood for the Saints to be laying.........I havent even seen next weeks lines. I got so trashed last night, I passed out after the Chicago game. I need to go take a look.

 

[Don Wallace]

Currently 9-5 ATS in the NFL, with GB +11 on deck tonight. Just booked Tennessee +19.5, Washington +4, Miami +10, and Dallas +3.5. I know, Tennesse is a bad football team, but the last time a NFL team got +19 points[ Dallas at Oakland ] some years back...........they won outright. Heres a system for you dog players......Play on any teasm as a dog for the remainder of the if they began the season 0-4 SU. those dogs have been hitting at about 57% for the last 10 years. I take it a step further, if you play those 0-4 dogs at +7 or more.......there a sparkling 68% over the last 10 years! Im offically on the Vince Young bandwagon. College lines are alittle tricky, but its always smart to book your NFL plays early in the week before all the computer groups and betting syndicates dump millions offshore and move the line.

 

[yanno]

Hi Don...just a couple of quick questions to clarify how you bet, if you don't mind.

In your reply to Zack above, you gave 3 catetgories of dogs that you play. There are +7 dogs, +3 dogs and homedogs. My questions are:

1. Dallas and Miami are both in your +7 dog category, but you are betting them this week at +3? and +4 respectively. Does this mean that you are betting them this year as +3 dogs, or do you change things on the fly and go by gut feel? Just asking this because you sounded like a pretty disciplined system guy.

2. Detroit and TB are in your +7 dog category. Right now at Pinny they are at +6 and you can get them at +7 by laying about -120 juice. Would you ever buy the point for this kind of juice to bump them up to +7 for system purposes?

I'm not trying to be picky or anything, just interested in how you work, since you are both a serious and disciplined capper (except when you get pissed at the end of the big nghts of course ).

 

[Don Wallace]

Yanno, dude its cool, anytime you have a question just fire away. Your correct, Dallas is a +7 dog in my database..........this is an additional play Im picking up. I believe Dallas is the best team in the NFC East, and this game will be huge for T.O. and the Cowboys. Im not buying into the Eagle and all the Hype. I think they could lose outright tonight. Dallas was 4-2 ATS as a +3 dog or more last year and beat the Eagles out right both meetings. After tonight, that line will be down to +2 to +2.5.............Maybe lower by kickoff. Teams that put up 40 or more points the previous week and than are installed as a dog of +3 or more are generally very good plays the next week out. Also, betting early gives me options...........lets say something happens and Dallas moves to a -1 favorite.........I would buy the Eagles +1 and play for a middle. I will tell you this, I cant count how many times betting the opening line in the NFL has saved me from a loss or a push. Last week I jumped on Jax +9 over Indy and the line immediately to 7. Jax lost by 7........that would have been a push. Let me go back to your post, I thought you ask me anther question.

 

[Don Wallace]

OK, I scratched TB for this season. The Saints have covered 4 straight games and I dont want to stand in front of that train, especially coming off a loss with the homefield advantage they have now. The UNDER is the play in that game for total players. TB has a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road and a defense that can keep them in the game for awhile. TB just has too many problems now and they havent even been a +7 dog for the last seven years. They were in my database because of Jon Grudens ability to coach. I think Im going to pass on them this year. In regards to your question if I buy extra points..........never. If the concensus line is not +7 offshore and Vegas I will pass. Maybe I over-simplified things in my post, I have to shift on the fly and manage my season like a portfolio........especially in the begining of the season.7 and 3 are key numbers, it takes alot of money to push them off those numbers........but if that happens, it becomes a judgement call or I just buy back the other side and take a loss on the vig. I buy back alot of bets throughout the season and it runs into some money, but in the long run it pays off and saves me from alot of losses. You ask about Miami, they are +10 dogs in NE., not +4. Again, if you ever have questions, just ask. Some people on this site are of the opinion that Im trying to cultivate customers to later sell my picks to..................which is ridiculous. I dont want the aggravation or responsibility of running a tout service. I have several friends who run services and I dont want any part of it. Most handicappers dont have much capacity for self-evaluation. You have to have a meticulous plan and understand what your doing and why. To do what I do takes alot of explaining and one on one time........which I dont mind, but not with two or three hundred clients. Ive been surfing since I was nine years old, and travel alot. I like my life just the way it is. Making an extra 40 or 50k a year doesnt mean much to me. I live a very comfortable lifestyle and go and do whatever I want, but as long as I can surf, party, bang hot chicks and pick winners Im fine...HA, HA.

 

[yanno]

Heres a system for you dog players......Play on any team as a dog for the remainder of the if they began the season 0-4 SU. those dogs have been hitting at about 57% for the last 10 years. I take it a step further, if you play those 0-4 dogs at +7 or more.......there a sparkling 68% over the last 10 years!

This is also interesting. Teams that are 0-4 this week are Tennessee and Detroit. Tennessee is already a play for you as a huge dog. Detroit is a +6? point dog (+100) at Pinny right now, tho you can get them at +7 for -118 juice. Would you bet them yourself (clearly you would NOT buy the half point) or is this a dog system that you are just "throwing out there"?

That's it, that's all the questions. THANKS.

P.S. Thanks for your responses. You are right about the Miami line, I was looking at Washington, my mistake. AND oh yeah, I totally believe you about not wanting the headache of a tout service, that would be BRUTAL. ENJOY LIFE AND GOOD LUCK.

 

[Don Wallace]

Yanno, Im watching that line closely. I saw +7 at Bodog.........but its clearly +6 to +6.5. If the concensus line moves to +7, III be all over Detroit. Go to the Goldsheet and click on links. Than go Dons Best or Vegas Insider they will have all the major offshore books lines and Vegas sport books. I know I can get +7, but when I factor in how a particular teams as a +7 dog when setting my 7 year database up............I always look at closing lines, so I just wait for the concensus to become a 7. Dude, I cant believe all the people that are backing the Eagles tonight. Farve is 7-1 ATS on MNF........on a big stage he comes to play. He look like he got into his groove last week and the crowd that is all over the Eagles must watch too much ESPN. GB was a +7 dog vs Carolina last year on MNF and lost by 3. That line is ridiculous.......I seriously believe the Pack can win this outright. You got to be on crack to lay double digits agianst GB.

 

[Don Wallace]

Currently 9-6 ATS in the NFL, looking to bust out this week. Already booked Tenn +19.5, Mia +10, Wash +4, Dal +3.5 early this week...............now adding Pitt +3.5. Most cappers think this game is a trap.........I disagree. In the last 6 years Pitt is 16-8 ATS as a dog of +3 or more. Cowher will have his team focused coming off there bye. This sets up alot like my Denver +7 over NE Sunday night play, or NE +6.5 over Cinn. play. Pitt. ran into the better team in Jax, self-destructed vs Cinn. This is still a 10 or 11 win team. Pitt. is 5-2 SU coming off a bye........and if any one player needed a bye it was Big Ben. I realize Im on the other side of some games that some very respected cappers feel differently about, namely Tenn, Mia, and Wash, but keep in mind, Im a numbers guy/ technical player, so my rationale may not be as indepth as others. I find the number Im looking for and turn my head. I have the same intrinsic feel for the game like all good handicappers, but all the anlaysis in the world means nothing once the ball is kicked off and teams begin to turn the ball over and begin to make critical mistakes.

 

[RTL]

Don, I have been following this thread since you started it. I like the way you think. There is no doubt in my mind that you will make money this year in the NFL. Can you please give us your thoughts on the Chiefs/Cardinals game. I'm leaning towards the Chiefs, but they are a huge public play this week. Do you have any trends on this game? In your opinion, who wins this game straight up? Thanks again for all you do!

 

[Don Wallace]

Dude, I have absolutely no opinion on that game. The Cards are a terrible home dog, there starting a rookie QB..........what are you going to do. If I had to make a play, I would side with Ari., dont trust Huard on the road..........think the real play is the UNDER, but what do I know.

 

[amich1]

dunno, this info supports both cards & the under.
probably pass on the side but i would never lay points w/ huard on the road.
(from kcchiefs.com & rotoworld)
Chiefs T Kyle Turley (back) and T Will Svitek (knee) are expected to miss this week's game.

Both are listed as questionable, but coach Herm Edwards essentially ruled them out. "We?re running out of players," Edwards said. Kansas City's makeshift line can't take any more injuries. Look for a rough outing from Damon Huard despite his excellent Week 4 start

 

[Don Wallace]

Currently 9-6 ATS in the NFL..............got DAL +3.5, TENN +19.5, MIA +10, WASH +4, and PITT +3.5. Booked my 1st 4 plays last Sunday night and PITT 2 days ago. Im waiting for DALLAS to move as a 1pt fav so I can buy PHILLY and play for a middle.........if not III just keep DALLAS +3 and a hook.