This is a great post. I think we have a lot in common.
I hope you come back after the 24 hour ban.
Live Dog
- Thread starter Don Wallace
- Start date
This is a great post. I think we have a lot in common.
I hope you come back after the 24 hour ban.
I apologize to the forum for acting like a condescending moron after the Monday njght game. Subsequent to two DWIs in one year, I vowed to never get in my vehicle after Ive been drinking. These days I spend alot of money on cab fares. Nonetheless, I need to exercise the same displine conserning my computer. I promise if Ive been drinking and all dialed up,...........I will be logging off for the night. No one was responsible for inciting me or pissing me off. I act at my own accord, and am accountable for my actions. Im just a dickhead after afew Crown and Cokes. Sorry guys. I really enjoy this site. The other forums have a bunch of back slapping squares betting $20.00 a game for entertainment purposes. This site features alot of hardcore sports wagers that are serious about what they do........and this were I belong. I dont want to be banned again. Plus, what happens when I hit that inevitable losing streak..............how else would I get to Bad Angels plays to bail me out.......ha, ha. Go figure, I go 7-1 ATS between college and pro for the weekend and I got to kiss his ass.
yeah take advantage , and appreciate this board dude , looked at u and read all ur threads think u r a knowlegable and profitable individual that can make this board stronger , im a crown and coke guy to , but damn lol chillout HOLLA at the :weed: and , smile ! , give us some more dog winners ! g.l to u :toast:
6-4ATS season to date. Betting 5 dimes a game.......so I dont mess around, NE +6.5,Pats 26-11 ATS as a dog....10-3 ATS as a +3 dog or more coming off a loss Conversely, Cinncy 3-7ATS as a HF vs a non-divisional opp. The Bengals are not the powerhouse you think. 4 TOs turn into 24 points vs Pitt. Love NE in this spot..............New Orleans +8, NO 16- 3 ATS vs divisional opp. on the road. NO, out of the last 13 times they were dogs of more than +7 since 2000, NO has covered 10 out of 13 ATS. I got a good beat on this team. I live in New Orleans, I follow this team closely. Peyton will not letdown happen. The Saints know they are on the cusp of doing something very special this season. Saints win this game outright.................Arizona +7.5, Atlanta is a joke, Vick is a non-factor. I would like to see Warner on the bench, but will play the Cards in this spot............Are you kidding me, give me Washington +3 over Jax, they win this game outright. How many times can the Jags get up for a game........will have a strong MNF play.
I too am a Crown Royal guy. I take it with a splash of 7 up & a lime ...yummy
Your weekend card looks solid
I'm on a few.
GL to you
keep em coming
keep em coming
i have N orleans as top play and liked NE pats & wash...your post put a plus on them so let's get it on and best of luck to us:toast:
keep em coming
i have N orleans as top play and liked NE pats & wash...your post put a plus on them so let's get it on and best of luck to us:toast:
Zack, you asked about learning more about trends..... I dont know of any web-sites. I use the computer strictly for getting point spreads and porn.....just the important stuff. However, you should subscribe to a few newsletters, the Goldsheet, Powersweep. Or go to the Gamblers Book Shop and purchase a trend annuals Man, I gotta go. My life should serve as a plublic flim service on why you should not drink.........my head is killing me. Im 41 years old and still live like am 21. Why cant I just be normal like everyone else
well i am 21 so i feel your pain...haha thanks for the advice though, i'll have to look into that
i'm actually having a pretty good year for the first time since i started betting...and it makes me feel better that i like the the same pro games as you
Ne gettin 6.5 is a gift
falcons shouldnt be layin 7.5 to anybody
and the panthers definately shouldnt be layin 8 to many teams, especially the saints..drew brees is a straight ball player
the only play i wanted to ask you about wuz the skins...i personally like the under in that game
even after last week i think the skins offense is suspect, and you know the jags defense is tough...just dont see a high scoring game
also likin the over 47 in the indy/jets game
if you have some time holler back, if not its cool
i'm actually having a pretty good year for the first time since i started betting...and it makes me feel better that i like the the same pro games as you
Ne gettin 6.5 is a gift
falcons shouldnt be layin 7.5 to anybody
and the panthers definately shouldnt be layin 8 to many teams, especially the saints..drew brees is a straight ball player
the only play i wanted to ask you about wuz the skins...i personally like the under in that game
even after last week i think the skins offense is suspect, and you know the jags defense is tough...just dont see a high scoring game
also likin the over 47 in the indy/jets game
if you have some time holler back, if not its cool
Zack, in a couple hours when I shake this hang-over, Im gonna sit down and really go into elaborate detail about how I do business and why. When I was your age I use to get my head ripped off. I can save you alot heartache and money. Most bettors go bust several times before they get smart. But it doesnt have to be that way. I never had a mentor, so I learned the hard way. Making a living as a sports wager is not that complicating.........it just takes a big bankroll and nuts the size of grapefruits.
Zack, the first thing you got to remember, It takes 52.2% to break even. My approach to handicapping is designed to not lose. I dont play to win.....I play not to lose. In one of my previous post I talked about the 50% rule....how linesmakers every year get a 50/50 handle on underdogs vs favorites. So, I focus exclusively on the dogs. Now, I have to make intelligent choices on the dogs I play and thats solely based on ATS past history. Some coaches have a knack for rallying there troops in the dog role. Sometimes public perception is the reason why a particular team covers big spreads. So, I set up 7 years of result in 3 different categories. +7 dogs or more, +3 dogs or more and my favorite HOMEDOGS. My +7 dogs are Ari.,Bal.,Cin.,Dal.,Det.,GB.,Hou.,Mia.,NO.,SD., and TB. My +3 dogs are Car.,Den.,Jax., and Wash. My homedogs are Chi.,Dal.,Mia., and KC. Now my homedogs have to +3 or I wont play them. 3 is such a key number in NFL. I think I once read that over 2100 games in the last 20 years have been decided by 3pts. Nonetheless, from year to year I tinker with my play on teams......but in the 7 years these combined in these roles went 30-19 ATS in 99, 36-25ATS in 00, 34-28 ATS in 01, 42-34 ATS in 02, 41-29 ATS in 03, 40-21 ATS in 04, and 27-15 ATS in 05. Heres the trick, I formulate my play on teams according to how I think things will set up for the following year. Sometimes Im wrong, but my best assest as a handicapper is being able to accurately predict surprise teams. The year Carolina went to the Superbowl I was all over them........nobody in the media was talking about them. I began to wonder if I was wrong. I couldnt believe no one saw it coming. They had just picked up Delhoume and Davis in free agency, landed Peppers in the draft........it was the 2nd year of Fox....and it generally takes NFL teams two years to gel and understand new systems and schemes. I didnt anticipate them reaching the Superbowl, but they went 6-1 ATS as a dog that year. I move to New Orleans back in April and have been telling everyone in town how improved this team would be. I think the Saints are a year away from the playoffs, who knows, It could happen this year. Nonetheless, I know my best attribute as a handicapper is detecting teams on the rise. So, when setting up my play on teams for the season, I try to make things correspond with the up and coming season. But if they dont have ATS history.....I dont include them. My thinking is this.....If you set up 7 winning seasons that average over 60%, in the 8th year everything is just gonna go south? Realistically, anything over 10 games to the good is a gift. If I end up 30-20 ATS in the NFL Im fine. I wager 5500 to win 5000. Nothing more nothing less. III take $40,000 tax free dollars any day. I pick up plays occasionally, like NO+4 Monday night, but usually just stick to my guns. I do the same thing in college......but I have only 2 divisions homedogs and road dogs, with no point critera. Once you have acouple years of success, you will start playing with confidence.......its kinda like poker. I love backing fat dogs and talking up teams nobody thinks can win. You have to block out everyone and do what you do. I dont give a damn what Phil Steele or the Goldsheet thinks about a game.........I have 7 years of result on my side, Im going to take the points and turn my head. Does not take a genius to do what I do. Dude, I dont care how much coke one puts up there nose, or how much kind bud you smoke......theres no better high than winning.
Don, solid thoughts and cappin, it made me check the results so far this year.
Best 7 > DOGS - 0-3
Az. L - Det. L - Hou. L
Best 3> DOGS - 0-1
Wash. L
Not busting your balls. Wondering what it means for this year.
Keep up the hard work, Hooks
Best 7 > DOGS - 0-3
Az. L - Det. L - Hou. L
Best 3> DOGS - 0-1
Wash. L
Not busting your balls. Wondering what it means for this year.
Keep up the hard work, Hooks
Your right Hooks.......I went 0-4 ATS in week 2#. In the thread I discussed sometimes picking up additional plays and Ive done that twice with SD/Oak UNDER 43 in week 1# and New Orleans +4 last Monday night. Also, I added Minnessota and New England to my play on list. MIN is now in my home dog stable and I had them +3.5 vs Chiago. Now, I jumped on Jax +9 early over Indy before the number went to +7. You missed my Denver play from Sunday night against New England............that puts me a 6-4 ATS. All of my plays are recorded on my thread....so its not like Im embellishing here. I picked up New England this week so my plays are NE +6.5, NO +8, ARI+7.5, WAS +3, and I have GB +11. Week 2# put me in damage control mode and I manage my season accordingly. While I take a strigent approach.....Im still a handicapper.
Bud as a fellow suicide player, i hope you can change your picks before game time. Don is right here (i certainly hope so as well because i have some coins on Wash +3)
hate to see you going out this early, there are still good teams to take, Philly, KC, Colts, Cowboys
GL in whatever you choose!
Welcome to the forum, Don. You're very sincere in your posts, and very informative as to how you go about things. Keep on posting your info. Coming from somone with 15 years experience handicapping games, you're as close as I've ever found to my style. I mostly play up and coming dogs at home that no one gives a chance to win or cover. Looking forward to hearing from you this season.
Thanks for the love guys.........went 2-1ATS in college today, but sick to my stomach that the Hawkeyes couldnt keep it closer. Big difference between $4500 and 15 large. Hopefully my NFL plays come up big.
. although i read some of your post and agree with some of the stuff you say, if you think the books want equal action on both sides then i can't take you to seriously. Something tells me your setting these guys up to pay for your picks. I will say this tho a lot of this is in the gut and you can't teach it but some of the stuff you say are common errors with cappers. Good luck tho. Im sure im gonna get slammed by some of your followers but hey its not the first time.
