Miami backers???

[snoozer]

I am just curious on what the rationalization is in backing Miami going into this game? Assuming Wade play, but is no more than 50% - 60% affectivel, how can Miami win this game?

Everygame that Miami has won has been close (expect the collapse of game 5). All those games were with a healthy Wade, where he was, by far, their best player on either team. Watching game 6, Miami had no flow on offense, they really looked lost out on the court. They had no one that could drive and dish or draw the double team. They had trouble getting the ball to Shaq, who Detroit was able to double team when they wanted too

I am not trying to question anyone's decision I am just to understand the thought process.

It seemed to me, the ref's let them play in game 6, I think they will do the same for game 7.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

I have a large wager on miami to win the series. I'm not even considering hedging or anything. I still think Miami wins

the problem with most of the people on this board and others is that you are putting too much emphasis on Wade. So what if they looked like garbage without him last game. do you really think the nba is on the up and up?

it don't matter if he plays tonight or not. Miami will get every call and every benefit of the doubt. You know why? it's called home court advantage. If the Pistons wanted home court so bad they had 82 games to prove they deserved it. Guess what? they didn't. End of story. All you piston fans get ready to bitch tonight cause the officiating will ensure that Miami wins. But don't blame them, blame yourself for playing like chit for a good majority of the regular season. The refs do what they are told. And there should be an advantage for home teams. If there isn't then why play the regular season?

 

[txag]

so the only reason you think the heat are going to win is becasue you think the refs are going to cheat for them?

 

[pt1gard]

i hadnt watched game 6 until last night and found it curious heat was within 2 in fh with 90 secs left and deet's offense looked horrible ... I didnt even watch 2nd half and realize it was a blowout after that but was also not impressed with deet's offense at all at home when one would have thought they'd apply the boots early, which they couldn't do even with Shaq mired with fouls ...

82% of time game 7 the home team wins; LB is think i saw was 5-3 in game 7s (not sure how many were on road tho) ...

Im not so sold refs will play any role, a pal of mine who played a long time in NBA had this belief "that game 7s usually the refs will let the game decide itself" ... I do recall Bullets beating Sonics for title on road in game 7 late 70s, DJ went 0-14 scared: ...

I know lotsa people have both teams and this game is near pick'em; I have deet in conf. future and am not confident in the least---they have bellied up enuff times in playoffs that no sane man can say for sure they will win this game, they are 4-4 on rd. in playoffs ...

But with Wade a huge ??? I dont see much edge either way ... If Butler or another Heat player (other than big 2) plays inspired on offense, then heat will probably win ...

tuff call, but should be fun
gregg

personally i think the under is best call but its dropped 7 pts from last battle in miami

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

the refs cheat, are biased, make bad calls all the time. whatever you want to call it. I can't convert you if you believe that the NBA is rock solid league where there is nothing behind the scenes and that pure talent wins on any given night. I know this to be false, but to each his own.


Also depends on your definition of the word cheat. Biasing calls against or for a team might be your definition of cheating, but it can also be earning home court for a game 7 of this magnitude. Does Miami deserve the benefit of the doubt on close calls tonight. YES. Why, because they earned it. They played in the same conference as Detroit and ended up with a better record. If Detroit would have wanted home court they could have earned it in the regular season, but they didn't. Most of you will disagree with this. In a perfect world, you want the game to be refereed fairly. But what you don't realize and ask every NBA coach or official is that you can call a foul on every posession. 7 foot tall men banging against each other in a confined space there is contact on every posession. So I would have no problem with a fairly called game. It's just impossible because NBA uses subjective officiating. With so much contact they have to call what they think is fair for the game. Why did refs ask how many fouls shaq had in a game in last years playoffs? remember that soundbite? because they do care.

you might disagree with what i've said and thats fine. Its my opinion.

gl 2 you in your wagers

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

One last thing....if you can answer this than i'll be impressed

why have home teams won over 75% of game 7s?

surely the two teams that play in these games are fairly even. why does home court matter?

is it just a coincidence that in all these evenly matched series the home team has won?

too small a sample size?

standard deviation?

 

[txag]

the home team has probably won 75% of game 7's because their best players didn't have a torn rib muscle. don't get me wrong i think the refs will be somewhat bias towards the heat, but that won't be enough.

 

[Coug LJ]

I've liked Miami and like them tonight. As Kenny "The Jet" Smith says, the role players do A LOT better at home. That has shown to be true already in this series and will likely be true again, tonight.

My bellief is that Wade will play and have an impact on the game. The reality is that Miami was not going to have a great chance beating the Pistons in Detriot even with Wade, so let him heal up and get better and roll the dice at home. I have no doubt if the game in Detroit was a game 7, D.Wade would have played.

I agree with Pt. Gard that the Piston's Offense is something to worry about. They have no one who can consistently supply easy buckets and are too perimeter-oriented. Teams usually make adjustments to pressure defenses, so that should be less of a problem for Miami as well.

As for the refs, I don't think it will be lop-sided, but the home team usually gets more calls even during regular season games. That's just how it works.

Of course, Detroit could win. If they are hitting their outside shots and get in a groove, they are next to impossible to beat. This is a game they would like to get off to a good start. Put the pressure on the Heat and see if they crack.

I know a lot of people are banking on D. Wade to have a limited contribution. My gut feeling is that he will play and play well.

 

[Jalen45]

bleed dodger blue - i dont agree with anything you said in those posts. but thats your opinion so its ok. its not because im a piston fan either. if you honestly think the refs will decide this game 7, you better watch a different channel. home court to you means- get calls on your side. home court in general means- you have the crowd and the feeling of being on the court you play half the games at during the season. yes, you may get "some" calls in your favor, but to think that the refs will "let" or "make" miami win no matter what detroit does, is just absurd.

from what ive heard since game 5 was all about dwayne wade. its like, if wade plays= miami wins, if wade doesnt= miami loses. its like a set thing already. does anyone think detroit can win this game anyway with dwayne 100%?? no!!!! why not? the pistons won game 1 and 4 with wade 100%. game 1 was in miami was it not? how come this game is already decided? i dont get it? they still have 48 minutes to play.

granted, if wade plays and is 100% and the heat are home, they have a better chance, but can we please stop looking at it like its "impossible" for detroit to win this game if wade plays, and the only way detroit has a shot is if wade is banged up? these 2 teams are pretty evenly matched and thats why they are playing the final game of the EC. the pistons only were 3 to 4 games behind the heat at the end of the regular season. maybe it was because those 4 games were decided by the refs.....who knows?

..........and thats my opinion.


good luck to all.

detroit ML +125.

ps. bleed dodger= you will see me on here bitching during the game if the refs are on the heat. its just not right.

 

[ivabign]

Pardon me but anyone who thinks the game is fixed is a bonehead.... anyone who thinks there are a group of Stern's minions who determine outcome based on ratings should consider quitting gambling and try needlepoint. If it were true we would be still watching the PHX/SA (much better television if you ask me) series...

I mean if you look at the stats from games 1-6, the officiating has been extremely even...

Game #1 @ MIA - Detroit gets 12 FT's, Miami gets 10. Detroit gets 12 fouls called, Miami gets 12.... Detroit wins...

Wow... call Oliver Stone...

Game #2 @ MIA - Detroit gets 23 FT's, Miami gets ...uh.. 23 FT's!
Detroit gets 26 fouls called, Miami gets 23 .... a gargantuan disparity don't you think? You do if you are blind....

Game #3 @ Detroit - Miami gets 54 FT's and 29 fouls called, Detroit gets 43 FT's and 33 fouls called against them...

This is the biggest disparity we have folks and it comes against the HOME team....

More a case of DET thinking they stole one in MIA and this is going to be a cakewalk, the play like shit and foul like crazy... I saw the game, it wasn't the refs, DET played like shit.

Game #4 @ DET - Mia gets 39 FT's and 30 fouls called, Detroit gets (WOW!) 39 FT's and 28 fouls called...

With that kind of parity, it might have been the Lions and Dolphins playing that night.....

Game #5 @ MIA - Detroit gets 20 FT's and 23 fouls called, while Miami gets ...er... 23 FT's and 22 fouls called.... truly one sided don't you think??

Game #6 @ DET - Miami gets 18 FT's and 20 fouls called, while Detroit gets 19 FT's and 17 fouls called....

With that gap, there's no wonder Detroit pulled ahead by almost 30 points.... isn't there????

Home field advantage is a factor - teams play better at home... it is NOT a conspiracy.... There is no grassy knoll.... You overestimate the ability of the NBA to dictate outcomes....

The numbers don't lie.... if you want to sell this load of crap... try 'E' channel.....

 

[edludes]

Miami needs outside shooting tonight to make Detr pay for doubling Shaq,which they'll need to do.I'm betting in this game they get it from EJones,DJones,Butler and Co,not necessarily Wade.I look for Haslem to play well at home too,and of course Mourning has some game 7 demons to erase as well.These other Heat players are capable of doing this for one game,and this is the game it will happen,a 15 out of 17 trend supports this,check my thread if you want more details.People have a hard time getting the last game out of their minds,it rarely works out the same way twice in a row,especially for a defending champion.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Im a big one:

I'm assuming you are talking to me. I do not believe the game is fixed. Too big a game. If you believe that there aren't fixed games in the NBA during the regular season then you need to take up needlepoint.

As for this game, the questionable calls and close calls will go to the heat. That's all i said. Period. And they deserve them. They have the home court. That is the reason they worked harder and had a better record than detroit during the regular season. They earned it and Detroit did not. If they wanted it they had 82 games to prove it. They did not. The refs will not blatantly fix a game of this magnitude, but Miami with or without Wade will get home court calls. Period. If you don't like it, call Stern himself. Whether or not this is enough to make Miami win or lose will be seen in 4 hours. I think it is, but I respect your opinion to not think so.

I certainly never said anything about ratings, so I assume you are talking to someone else. With that said, a Detroit/San Antonio series will be the lowest rated series in the history of the NBA. I can guarantee you that. Doesn't mean it won't be good basketball. Doesn't even mean it won't be exciting. It is what it is. I'm not even saying that will have anything to do with tonight's outcome. If I'm wrong so be it, but the ratings won't lie.

I'm assuming all your stats are for others to read as I don't want too, becuase i'm assuming you said the officiating has been fair. I never said it hasn't been. So i guess I'll agree with you there, but if you think Miami won't get its share of calls tonight on the close calls you're nuts. And it won't be in the first half either. Detroit will get all the early calls so Maimi can get them in the 2h and at the end of the game you can tally em up and they will look even. It's not fixed (this game) I agree with you, but at home, the home team will get the closer calls tonight.

But just because you say teams play better at home doesn't mean they don't get the calls. Over 75% of home teams in game 7s have won the game. You have to realize that teams are obviously closely matched if they make it to a game 7. If two evenly matched teams play all these games and yet the home team wins 3 out of every 4, they are getting the benefit of the doubt on some calls. Not cheating, not fixing, just the benefit of the doubt.

gl

 

[pt1gard]

BDB,

i enjoy reading your posts but i was curious if you knew which games are fixed in the regular season and alert me to signs of it, I've always been intrigued in finding proof.

The NBA refs are prob the best organzied group of officials in the world; everyone should check on exactly what measures they go thru for each game, week, season.

I don't know too many things more difficult to do than ref hoops; Ive reffed over 1000 and find not blowing the whistle is usually best antidote to staying out of ruining games. A great ref misses dozens of calls every game and they will readily admit it ... I wonder how many guys that rant on refs have ever even reffed a semi-high powered youth league game?

Prob 1%, if that.

I make my players ref and after they are done they always have a newly found respect for the basically impossible task.

gl, gregg

 

[Jaxx]

Since the 82-83 season there has been 39 seven game series. The home team is 35-4 SU Of the 4 losses 2 were by 1 point. The heat are 26-2 SU @ home last 28.
True Wade is hurting. But it is heat or nothing for me.
GL

 

[fla]

Heat win it. I'll take a 50% Wade at home with Shaq against an up and down offense like the Pistons.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

pt 1

i agree that refs get more than their fair share of grief. I've never tried it, but have a great deal of respect for it. I have two friends that ump in the minor leagues for baseball. one is currently in double-a and might be a call up within the next 5 years. i know baseball is different, but they too go through rigorous training. even though most of them look fat, the newer, younger umps in mlb are far from it. the older fatter ones are grandfathered in. Refereeing or umpiring is a greuling task. others take it for granted. i have the utmost respect for officials, umps, refs, whatever you want to call them. I'm sure an nba ref is probably the hardest of all, becuse there is so many judgement calls as opposed to other sports. Plus, they run their asses of.

to be honest, refs aren't the only ones that can fix a game. tell me the countless times you've seen a team down 12 with 10 seconds left foul on a spread of 13 or something similar. i have a vcr tape of about 20 situations that i thought were questionable. i really used to enjoy basketball NBA style. before i did poker and sports for my job, i used to work nights at a real job and used to tape games and watch later. i would dub things that i thought were stupid at the end. i'm gonna look for that tape now. hopefully my wife didnt tape desperate housewifes over it. Coaches and players can always claim they were trying to work on some plays and such in situations like these. but the fact is the nba is a gambling league regardless of david sterns distaste for the word. True story i was sitting under the basket at a bulls game in chicago two years ago. The game was coming down to whatever the spread was and i was seated by a heckler. he kept telling Antonio Davis to miss cause he needed the cover. I know Davis heard him, this guy was as loud, obnoxious and drunk as could be. Davis was at the line with spread debatable with around 20 seconds left, but the game had already been decided. Davis sinks the second free throw and then winks at this guy and says two words "wrong side". This was a garbage game in garbage time as to actual outcome of the game. it just shows that players are aware of the lines. not every game is fixed and not even most are. there just are some for sure. that's just my opinion, but i know im right.

as for you being a ref. kudos to you. you must be in great shape and only wish i was. just curious, i know you don't coach superstars or anything, but let me ask you a question. have you ever refed a game where there was a truly great player as compared to the rest of the players on the court? did you ever give him any benefit of the doubt? did you ever give any kind of consideration to the home team? just curious and by no means accusations, just curious.

gl

 

[pt1gard]

yanno, the thing i do see at all levels is what I call: reffing the scoreboard, teams more often than not making a comeback, say down 5, will get the and one or charge (not every time, but i know it favors the team behind)

I have reffed great ex-college players a number of times and I dont favor them, in fact, if they are jerks, i give them less; people forget about that dynamic at times, jerks get less--thats human nature ... I honestly try to be absolutely fair, thats all i would want as player, coach or fan.

Now, I tell my players if you play the ref a little, chase a ball down, say "nice call" ona tuff one every so often, you establish a bond of being good kid and 'might' get a call when we need it ... our teams almost never get Ts and most refs say our teams are by far the best behaved they ref.

so a pinch of kindness goes a long way

as for protecting shaq and MJ etc, man, those guys are so good they get fouled all the time off the ball and prob deserve their calls when its all said and done

take care
gregg

 

[ivabign]

First off, I would like to apologize to Dodger Blue for coming off a little harsh before, I just don't think that there are enough great minds out there for any kind of organized conspiracy to fix games, or set playoff match-ups....

I think your game experience is a great example of what I mean... while Davis was aware of the line, it sure as hell wasn't going to influence his play... he sank the FT's and the bettor was on the 'wrong side'... These guys have way too much to lose to shave points.... maybe some guys who don't have too much to lose might(marginal player...etc), but I would think a coach would spot that kind of play in an instant and he would be hard pressed to have many more opportunities to shave points....

I must say that when I saw that, deep into the third quarter, the Pistons had only 5 FT's, I was thinking the home cooking was particularly strong.... but the better team won and no glaring ref mistakes put the win in jeopardy....

Once again... sorry for being an ass.... just don't see these guys as being brain surgeons.... far from it...

 

[edludes]

Cingrats to you Detr and under players,you had it dialed in correctly.

 

[Coug LJ]

Congrats to the Pistons and their fans. The were nails down the stretch and the two best teams will be in the Finals. Miami was game, but were not a poised as the Pistons.

Hopefully, these two teams will meet again next year and have another great series.