Midseason experiment

TheShrimp

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The pick: Toronto (Halladay vs. Johnson) -165

This is the first year I've tried betting baseball. I jumped right into it with both feet early on, got crushed, then laid off.

Also, I haven't been contributing much at Madjack's except for a couple of losers in big fights and a bunch of nonsense on the general forum.

I think part of why I was getting whooped on the bases came from looking at all 13+ games on the slate and trying to find a couple that look like they were offering good value. It's not easy trying to follow trends/players/injuries/bullpens/lineups for an entire league. Especially when you have a full-time job, a wife, and a house. I've always done much better at the NFL but that is a lot less info. You get as many games in a whole season as you do in 2.5 weeks in baseball.

So, what I'm going to try doing is betting one team, The Orioles. Every day I'll try to make a side/total/no play on them or their opponent and track this play for the rest of the season. I get to follow what happens with the team every day, but I'm also not a big O's fan, so I hope to maintain a measure of distance.

For this thread I'll bet with a unit on the dog, or with the whole number on the fave.

Tonight: Roy Halladay is having a very good, and overlooked season. He's 10-4 with a low era, and there might still be some value on him because he's from a very lackluster team. He's facing Jason Johnson who's been all right, exhibiting good control, good k/BB ratio. I was looking for a line more in the +165/-185 range. But finding the Jays as a -160 favorite, I'm going to go with them. They are playing well, but coming off a disappointing one yesterday. The O's have won 3 straight, 2 against the M's but now go on the road against a streaking team. I see a nice fade position here.

laying 1.6 to win 1.

TheShrimp

Note: The O's lost Mike Bordick in a collision at second base on Monday. He's out for 3 weeks. In case you hadn't heard, he has a 72 (or 73) game errorless streak at shortstop. I believe he's closing in on the record held by Ripken which is about 85. He holds a .998 fielding percentage this year. Bordy had a few good years with Oakland before coming to the O's, going to the mets for half a season, then coming back. He's one of my favorite players, due 95% to the fact that he's from my home state of Maine. 5% because I like weak hitting defenders because they remind you that there's more to the game than the dinger. A career .260 hitter and .982 fielder, he's a first ballot hall of famer. Just kidding of course -- it might take a couple of votes. ;)
 

TheShrimp

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Thursday, July 18

Thursday, July 18

YTD: 1-0 +1.0 units.

Tonight, I'm taking the O's +110. 30 year old rookie travis Driskill is on the hill for the birds. He's 6-2 with both losses coming at home. The O's couldn't get the bats going last night, but they face a far inferior pitcher tonight.

Neither guy has been very durable and both pens have problems, so I'd lean on ov9 -105, too, but the only play is:
Orioles +110.

TheShrimp

Also, I have to laugh after reading the Toronto Star article this morning claiming that Hinske basically has rookie of the year locked up. He's says the only guys close to him are Dustan Mohr and Nick Johnson. There's a certain 9-3 starter on the Orioles named Rodrigo Lopez that might also have something to say about it.

You wonder if some of these writers are lazy or stupid. Some don't even seem to have the knowledge of a guy who catches SportsCenter every day.
 

TheShrimp

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Ov. 9 (ev)

Ov. 9 (ev)

Yesterday 0-1 -1.0
YTD: 1-1 0.0

Tough one yesterday, but when you lose by 1 in a game you have a chance to win getting better than even money, it's not a bad bet. If you bet the under and think "I never get a break", well, you got one yesterday.

Playing the over tonight. It's hot and humid in the city. Chicago has been a good hitting team all year, scoring over 5 runs per game. Mora has made 2 errors at SS in the last 3 games. Gary Matthew Jr. has been very shaky in RF. Batista got eaten up by one last night. Gibbons has not shown great proficiency at first. He's a better right fielder.

They're facing Jon Garland tonight who comes in with a 4.61 ERA. The O's have scored 18 runs in their last 3 at the Yard. And, its even money. Give me the:

ov9 (ev) on the weaknesses cropping up in the O's defense and the weather. The mitigating factor is how good Lopez really is. CWS saw him in relief earlier this year but not enough to get a handle on him, and this cat really has some wicked crap. I just don't see him holding this chicago line up down to 2 or 3.

Also, a lean on the O's -140, but I don't like that number. The lines are finally catching up to Lopez.

TheShrimp
 

Spock

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you will notice that most of the games I play are totals.

But in the first game of any series dont have the Ump info and in my opinion the Ump info is most essential to know for the totals.

Hence staying off the totals today until just before game starts.

Good luck on your play.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

TheShrimp

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1-0 last night with an easy over.
YTD: 2-1 +1.0

Balls were flying. Eutaw street got hit for the second time this year.

O's have a good OVER line-up in the right now with a crappy defensive line-up and all right hitting. Mora, Gibbons, Matthews Jr. are all much better with the ash than the leather.

They've had Howie Clark DH-ing and he's had a hit in every one of his games since being called up. Hargrove claims he's the real deal.

The play today is on Ponson -125. Not a big enough number to go against with two teams heading in different directions. O's are 4-5 since the break, but that's against Oak, SEA and a hot toronto team. This is a young group gelling as a team, and tonight is just the kind of game I think they grab this year.

Also leaning on the over 9.5 Ev tonight.

The play: Orioles 1.25 to win 1.

No play tomorrow.

TheShrimp

NOTE: One thing you might not know is that the umps automatically start Buddy Groom's batters with one strike just because Buddy has the audacity to wear that mustache. He and Jorge Julio have really been putting together some nice relief performances.

Check out 'off the wall' for write-ups on the fight tonight. For people who think fighting sucks because all they watch is the heavyweights, turn on HBO at 10:00 tonight and watch some great welterweights (jr. middles? who knows?) go at it.
 

TheShrimp

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Found some time to look at todays game.

1-0 last night.
YTD : 3-1 +2.0

Going with the birds again today.

Erickson has been pitching great with a July ERA of 1.50. Even while he was losing he had some good outings. His poor record has kept this line within reason.

Lat night these two squads went to the 14th, and used a lot of relievers. Erickson can be relied on to give you more innings than Wright (3 CGs to 1 this year). Wright has gone more than 6 innings nly once in his last 5 starts. Also, he keeps the ball down. Both Lopez and Ponson kept it down and didn't allow chicago to get anything going. Look for more of the same from Scotty today.

Laying 1.4 to win 1. You might find it at -135 if you look.

Tomorrow headline: O's Sweep Chicago. Move to .500!

TheShrimp

NOTE: This guy Howie Clark looks like a real pro. He's now had a hit in his first 5 major league games. He's a 27 year old rookie. Last night he went down 0-2 to Glover. Then he fouled off a couple tough pitches, hit a couple hard but foul to right, worked the count to 3-2 then went the opposite way with a double to left center. A real Wade Boggs type of at bat. Keep an eye on him. Grover really likes him.
 

TheShrimp

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0-1 yesterday.
YTD: 3-2. +.6 units.

No play yet today, and it will probably stay that way. rematch of last week where Halladay beat Johnson handily.

Ov 8 is looking attractive to me, but no play for now.

TheShrimp

Unfortunate loss yesterday, but sometimes you're on the good side of those.
 

TheShrimp

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0-0 yesterday.
YTD: 3-2 +.6 units.

I'm going to go with Travis Driskill continuing to falter. He's been pretty poor at home this year. The BJ's are really playing well since the break and I'm looking for it to continue today against a guy they pounded last week. Escobar has been unhittable against the O's.

The play: Tor (Ev). 1 to win 1.

TheShrimp

Looking back at yesterdays game, a play on the Jays could have been wise. I didn't really have time to go into it though so I didn't put out a play. Here's why I think that: Saturday night the birds went 14 and really went through their bull pen. On sunday they blew a late lead and used Groom and Lopez after we saw both of them saturday.

Basically, Grover pulled out all the stops to get to .500 over the weekend. That's part of why I went with them on Sunday.

To boot, you got Halladay coming in who has been fierce facing Johnson, who hasn't. It was a pretty good price on the Jays and I didn't really think it would be one of those games where hargrove does every thing possible to win it. A "Let's get through lHalladay and then see what we can do" type of game.
 

TheShrimp

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Rain out yesterday.
YTD: 3-2 +.6

The game is OTB most places right now, but at SIA, they have the same starters listed as yesterday, but with tor -110.

I really don't feel as good about them today. I'm staying away from the side.

I'm making a play on Ov 9 (ev).

I don't feel strongly, especially with the weather and the rested pens, but both of these starters are getting hit and both teams have been putting together some decent offense. O's have been scoring at home like crazy. They were held to 3 against Halladay Monday, but other than that, their offense is really getting it together.

Lean on toronto.

TheShrimp
 

Spock

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I think smaller play is in order. Dont feel right about the game also.

If i am correct Baltimore has a horrible record in day games.
In day games Toronto is 19-15
In day games Baltimore is 11-19

Mebbe that accounts for the change in line though shud not.

How can same pitchers same teams have the dog and fav interchanged for game next day.

:confused: :shrug:

# Agree on the Over. Both pitchers have had one day's extra rest though.

Good luck !!!
Spock
 

TheShrimp

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Just a note before the game.

That O/U is 9.5 -110 at SIA now, but I got some at 9 (Ev) so that's the play. Most other places have it at 9.5, too.

Obivously, that's a far worse play, with a loss on the all important 9[\B] and having to lay 1.1 to win 1. I would probably stay away from that 9.5.

Early Shrimp gets the worm.

GL.

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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0-1 yesterday.
YTD: 3-3 -.4 units.

Tough one yesterday. O's stranded 8, Jay's 6 .

In the 9th, O's had men on second and third with two outs and Mora ripped one down the left field line that went foul by 3 feet. With a final scored of 5-2, that was the difference between a loss and a push.

My leans have been coming in better than my plays so far, so I'm happy I'm hitting those.

No O's game today. I'll have a write up tomorrow, but with Lopez vs. Burkett at Boston, I think we're going to see a good price on the O's so I'm already leaning that way.

Good luck on your plays today.

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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Yesterday: No play
YTD: 3-3 -.4 units.

Lopez v. Arrojo today.

I'm sticking with Rodrigo Lopez at the super price of +155. His 10-3 isn't a fluke. You might think he's one of these guys that blows 'em away when he comes in and then starts tanking the second time they all see him. Not so. He's beat Tampa Bay twice, and he's beat Boston twice (after losing once).

It should be a good game. I was thinking it really should go off at about +130 or +135 or so, but they have it at +155 at SIA.

The play:
1 to win 1.55

Also, the lean today in on the under 9.5. The price is -120.

The play:
.6 to win .5

Both go towards my record.

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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Yesterday 1-1. +.95
YTD: 4-4 +.55

By game time yesterday SIA has O's +135 and a price of -145 on that under. If I made those plays, I would have bet 1 to win 1.35 and .73 to win .5 -- the day would have been a +.62 day instead of +.95, and the season would stand at +.22 instead of +.55.

That's basically a removal of the VIG on the "true" line. Just someting to keep in mind when your doing your betting.

As everyone knows, it's key to keep more than one book open to try to accomplish the same thing.

No play today or tomorrow. I have obligations all weekend. However, I'd look seriously at Ponson getting +190 today. He really can pitch, but for some reason he just usually doesn't. No way I'd lay the -210 on the Sox. With a day off thursday and Lopez going 8 yesterday, the bullpen is pretty rested for the O's, too.

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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Yesterday: No play.
YTD: 4-4 + .55

Today is Travis Driskill vs. Paul Wilson. Driskill was undefeated on the road till he got creamed in his last one at Toronto. He also lost his last one at home to Toronto.

I still think the O's are going to have a better second half than people expected. Driskill's been good on the road, and TB is just bad. They're putting Paul Wilson on the mound, who is 2-7.

I'm looking for Driskill to get back on track and the O's to pick one up after a tough weekend series that saw them lose 2 of 3 to Boston. Worried about laying much juice on Driskill since teams are getting to him after seeing him a second time around.

The Play: Orioles -130.
Units: 1 to win .77 (not laying the whole 1.3).

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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Yesterday: 0-1 -1.
YTD: 4-5 -.45 Units

O's are starting a guy who comes from down under today, and I don't mean Dan Quisenberry [pause for laughter].

An Aussie who travels with a jar of vegemite and a nasty curve, Stevens had a sub-2 era in double-a bowie last year and has an era around 3 for triple-a rochester.

I like guys making their major league debut, but I was hoping for better odds. Still, I'm putting a unit at +105 on the new kid. Grover saved Groom and Lopez in a tight one (until late) last night, so maybe he was looking forward to getting the new kid a win.

The play:
Orioles +105. 1 to win 1.05

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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Yesterday 0-1 -1.
YTD: 4-6 -1.45

Tonight. The stopper Rodrigo Lopez is going against De Los Santos who is 0-2.

I fully expect Lopez to shut down the D-Rays. He's been great after Orioles losses. He's FIVE AND OH in the month of July. Yup. 5-0.

I'd like to see a lower number -- I rarely lay this much juice, but the birds are trying to avoid the sweep and I really like this guy, so the play is :

Orioles:
1.85 to win 1.

Also playing,
Under 8.5. 1.1 to win 1.

Oh how I wish that were '9'. I don't expect the O's to rip De Los Santos. The loss of their 'names' is really starting to catch up to them, and Lopez has been shutting everybody down.

TheShrimp

NOTE: The O's certainly are slumping in a big way. They were getting some momentum with a two game sweep of seattle, but then tanked for two against the Blue Jays and they haven't really been the same since. Some guys (Clark and Matthew Jr.) stepped up in the absence of Bordick and Conine, but they've really come back to Earth.
 

TheShrimp

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Yesterday 1-1 -.1
YTD: 5-7 -1.55

I still feel all right about that total. O's gave up 2 which is about what I expected, and if you bet me O's would score o/u 6 I would have taken that under in a second.

No play today. Ponson has been inconsistent enough and the O's have been bad enough to consider the +130 or so on TB. I might play it. If I do, I'll update here.

TheShrimp

Lopez looked good again. 6 hits in 6 innings. He went 6-0 in July. he's 10-0 in night games (2-3 in day games). He's 6-0 after Orioles losses. That's some things to keep in mind when betting this guy.

He's 12-3 now with a 2.94 ERA. Rookie of the Year? Shit. Give him the Cy Young.
 

TheShrimp

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No play yesterday.
YTD: 5-7 -1.55.

I really expect Erickson to bounce back, but the O's have been terrible in the Dome. Loaiza hasn't impressed. I don't know if Erickson's sinker is sinking and he can really get roughed up if they start hitting BB's across that turf.

Here are the plays. Both are leans, as I'm not feeling too confident. I couldnt' lay -140 on the Jays given that Erickson has been pitching better except for the last couple of starts and they have Loaiza on the hill:

O's (+130) .5 to win .65.
o9.5 (-120) .6 to win .5.

TheShrimp
 

TheShrimp

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tonight 2-0 +1.15
YTD: 7-7 -.4

update saturday, maybe.

TheDrunkShrimp <- loser!

(edited to call self loser)
 
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