ML dogs in bowls

[DOGS THAT BARK]

His is cut and paste of past 3 years posts on ml dogs and rushing angle which I look to carry forward to this year.

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posted 12-13-2000 09:57 AM
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Getting that time of year and here is some data I feel will apply to up coming bowl season.Foremost is taking advantage of ml dogs.
Of 21 bowls thru 12-25-99 to 1-4-00 last year the dogs covered 14 which is not important in itself but the fact that 12 out of the 14 were straight up money line winners is.
team-spread-score
Wake Forest +2 1/2 23-3
Hawaii +9 23-17
Stracuse +3 20-13
Boise St +3 34-31
Miss St + 2 1/2 17-7
Oregon + 2 1/2 24-20
Miss +4 27-25
Ark +7 1/2 27-6
Georgia +5 28-25
Mich St + 1 1/2 37-34
Mich +2 35-34
Ill + 2 1/2 63-21

Also I'd like to bring back last years post on bowls (one which was on 12-16-99 prior to games and one 1-5-00 following the game)which I feel again will apply this year.

---------------------------------------------Author Topic: Bowl Notes
DOGS THAT BARK
Member posted 12-16-1999 11:25 AM
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Not much on stats but thought these were note worthy.
Last 6 years team that out rushed opponant covered 72% of the time.
SU winner of last 319 bowl games has gone 267-43-9 ATS
Stats by Jeff Nelson


DOGS THAT BARK
Member posted 01-05-2000 10:40 AM
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This years results.Straight up winners went
20-3 vs the spread with K State,Utah,and Wisconsin being the only 3 to win and not cover.
Teams that rushed for most yards went 17-6 73.9% ATS the losers were Utah,Oregon,K State,Wisconsin,Alabama,and Vir Tech with VT being most lopsided having a 24-15 first down adv,out rushed Fla St a whopping 278 to 30,had 503 total yards to 359 and still lost.
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posted 01-04-2002 01:57 PM
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2000-2001 stats
winner covers/ml dogs/rushing angle
Once again if you could pick the winner you did well vs the spread going 21-4 the only game winners that didn't cover were
Bama-Texas-Wash St and OK.

If you could pick team that would run for most yards you went 19-6 those that won rushing angle but did not cover
E.C.-Texas-Wash St-BYU-Mich-NEB

Of the 14 dogs to cover 10 were ML winners.
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2002-2003 angle results/again more of the same

Pick the winner angle: 26-2
Only 2 teams won and didn't cover
K State and Vir Tech

Rushing angle:22-6
Teams to rush for more yards and didn't cover
Neb-K State-W Vir-LSU-Florida-ND

Dogs (using feist closing line)may differ somewhat from others
15 covered,13 were ML winners
Arizona State and AF were spread winners.
ML winners
North Texas +7 1/2
Tulane +14
Pitt +1 1/2
Miss +6 1/2
Virginia + 5 1/2
Wisconsin +5 1/2
Minnesota +9
Wake Forrest + 8 1/2
Purdue +2
Fresno +6 1/2
TCU +3
Auburn +7 1/2
Ohio State + 11 1/2

 

[IE]

thanks for sharing again DTB, this post might go along with what your presenting to help out also...good luck this bowl season.

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=70814

 

[IE]

also this might help...

computer matchup breakdowns

 

[renata]

Nice input
I think poor teams not participate in bowls thus good idea pick the dogs.

 

[hoyt]

IE
where did that computer breakdown come from?
Is it your personally program?

 

[RTL]

DTB,

I can't thank you enough for posting this information. This is exactly what we need to make money this bowl season. Good luck with your plays!

 

[Grama]

for the computer matchup program

what is the logic column, where did the projected line and predicted scores come from, and what is the win%??

Thanks for posting the link IE

 

[IE]

the home page and definitions are

HERE

i don't mind posting this link since this gentleman puts quite a bit of work into his numbers during the season and over the years has never asked for anything in return vs any link that i will take down if i see the site owner seeking monetary return in any way.

hope it helps and good luck.

IE

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

WOW IE Thanks Bud! Just now seeing these charts.

 

[Allnet]

Thanks IE, just reading the charts made me feel better about passing on Louis/Marshall game.

 

[louthesz]

bumptiddybump

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2001-2002 bowls
A few dogs I like in early games.
Most stats again come from Jeff Nelson

Tulane +12 @ SIA ML +380
Hawaii seems to always find ways to keep it close.Dog has covered in last 7 games Hawaii has played and Hawaii is 0-5 as fav in those games.

Toledo +4 1/2 @ Sia Ml +165
Basically can't see BC being motivated to play here.Mac always plays tough and very well balanced attack this year.

Pitt +2 1/2 ML +120
Oregon St main strength is playing at home (1-9 last 10 ats traveling).Pitt played bowl bound teams 5 of last 6 games and out gained 4 of them including Notre Dame and Miami.

I will split plays 1/2 on ml.

 

["TheEdge"]

good stuff

good stuff

thanks for the info

 

[louthesz]

bumpdiddybump

 

[louthesz]

bumpdiddybump

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding a couple more pre 31st games
Wisconsin +8 ml +260
liking rushing angle here( to date all bowl winners have won rushing war) and both teams quite similar,and Alvarez/ Barnett no strangers.Major concern though is kicking game of Wisconsin having struggled all year to get punts off.

Gonna throw in a fav also before the # moves off 7.
Oregon -7
Both teams here have gotten most their win via weak sisters,however Oregon very explosive and balanced ave nearly 400 yards of offense. Their problem has been stopping other team but their weakness is via the air giving up nearly 300ypg.
Doubtful Minny can exploit this ave only 160 in the air.
Looks initially like rushing angle for Minny but look for them to get behind and forced to abandon run.

will again split dog on ml and stats are derived from Jeff Nelson.

 

[djv]

Hey glad I took look see here. I new there was something from last year we had to look at to help. This may go along with the info I put up yesterday. Anything that helps tie the knot better for us.

 

[Doubledown21]

So far their have been 6 bowl games. Playing the dogs gets you 2 winners 4 losers at $100.00 a unit a minus -240. Playing the dogs on the money line gets you +265 North Texas, +475 Tulane =740-400 for losers makes you a plus $300. All lines from Carib. Playing the money line on the dogs is the right way to go. So far the spread has not figured into the game. Thats been the way I have been going and will contuine for the rest of the bowl games. A buck both ways. Should show a profit.

 

[Doubledown21]

Another barking dog Pit +115. Updates the totals to 3 ML underdogs winning putting you a plus 455. Playing the dogs with points 3 winners 4 losers a minus 140. Still the point spread has not figured in to play after 7 games.

 

[louthesz]

bumpdiddydump