ML dogs in bowls

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sports Addict I used to try and guage the rushing angle--but found it somewhat deceiving as the team that is generally winning will rush more and team behind pass more-- which in a lot of situations leads to tail waging the dog.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

05/06 bowl results-- lines from Pinnacle on 12-7-05
--missed one game (LSU/Miami) in tracking thread above that qualified however was off the board @ Pinn that day.Betting all dogs on ML of -3 or greater in Dec bowls returned just over 50% profit. AR's suggestion of throwing out pre 12-25 games would have boosted return substantially.
Lots of good stuff in his thread and will store here for next year.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=217507


Rushing angle 21-7
Teams to rush for more yards and NOT cover
Southern Miss
Nevada
Clemson
Arizona St
Minnesota
Fresno St
Penn St

Pick the winner 22-6
those that won game but didn't cover
Southern Miss
Nevada
Clemson
Arizona St
TCU
Penn St

Dog ML winners--12
Dec 20th to 24th
none
Dec 25th to Dec31st
Boston College -106
Nebraska +380
Utah +290
Oklahoma +141
Virginia +141
Missouri +162
LSU +210
Tulsa +220
Jan bowls
Alabama +126
Wisconsin +360
West Virginia+280
Texas + 234

Dominance of dogs in Jan bowls stronger than norm--but other wise mostly more of same from previous years--boring approach but continues profitable-easy-and eliminates emotion.
See ya gents next year.

 

[hwnhrt]

When the team who outrushes the opponent covers 72% of the time, is that IN THE BOWL GAMES or is that the team who outrushed the opponent DURING THE SEASON?

If its in the bowl games are we to assume that we play the team who outrushed their opponent during the season? How else do we know before the game who is going to outrush?

Thanks for all the stats.

I wanted to post this rushing angle subset, but couldn't remember who asked the question "How else do we know before the game who is going to outrush?" until I opened this thread to read the final numbers.

I did a rushing angle system this year, which didn't do well, but as I was looking over my notes on the earlier games (prior to 12/29), I stumbled on a "subset" within the rushing angle system, that was predicting who would rush for more yards(PRIOR TO GAMES BEING PLAYED). I tracked it over on another board. These are the final numbers for that subset. Numbers are based on my closing lines. Cal and TCU game could have different results, depending on your line.

Rushing Angle Subset: Predicting which team will outrush its opponent prior to game being played.

SU winners 20-8 (71%), losers Col. Rutgers, G Tech, Nwstern, Fresno, Iowa St, Aub,USC
ATS winners 18-10(64%), losers So Miss, Cal, Nev, G Tech, Nwstern, Fresno, Iowa St, Aub,Penn St,USC
FAVS 13-4 SU-ML/ 9-8 ATS (52%)
DOGS 7-4 SU-ML/ 9-2 ATS (81%)

On a side note: I read of a trend that said playing against favs of 4'-11 points from Christmas Day to New Years Eve was 0-21-1 since 2002.

If applied to all favs of 4'-11 points this year, trend went 1-7 ATS with V Tech being the only winner.

Using this trend, I went against the subset picks that qualified(So Miss, Cal, G Tech, Fresno, Auburn, Penn St, USC). Subset was 25-3 ATS. Only losses were Nevada, Iowa St and Northwestern.

I'll save my notes on this Rushing Angle Subset and post it here at MJ's next bowl season. I need to mention that this system is untested. I'll use the off season to go back a couple years... see if I can find the stats I need to see how this subset has done in the past.

h

 

[tendog]

thanks dogs and hrn next bowl season is only 345 days away--give or take a couple. looking forward to it.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

06-07 Bowls--My yearly contribution to foots--

Past 5 years history above--will be back at conclusion with recap of 06-07--using 5dimes lines below for grading--

AR had nice addition last year--
link>http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=217507

College Football Spread Money Line Total Points Team Total Points
POINSETTA BOWL - Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA - ESPN
Tue 12/19 301 Northern Illinois +12 -110 +360 Over 47 -110
8:00PM (EST) 302 TCU -12 -110 -450 Under 47 -110
LAS VEGAS BOWL - Sam Boyd Stadium , Las Vegas, NV - ESPN
Thu 12/21 305 BYU -4 -110 -200 Over 59? -110
8:00PM (EST) 306 Oregon +4 -110 +170 Under 59? -110
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA - ESPN
Fri 12/22 307 Troy +6 -110 +205 Over 52 -110
8:00PM (EST) 308 Rice -6 -110 -245 Under 52 -110
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL - Legion Field, Birmingham, AL - ESPN
Sat 12/23 311 East Carolina +3? -110 +155 Over 43? -110
1:00PM (EST) 312 South Florida -3? -110 -175 Under 43? -110
NEW MEXICO BOWL - University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM - ESPN
Sat 12/23 313 San Jose St +4 -110 +160 Over 48? -110
4:30PM (EST) 314 New Mexico -4 -110 -185 Under 48? -110
ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX - ESPN
Sat 12/23 315 Utah -2? -110 -135 Over 50 -110
8:00PM (EST) 316 Tulsa +2? -110 +115 Under 50 -110
HAWAII BOWL - Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI - ESPN
Sun 12/24 341 Arizona State +8 -110 +245 Over 74? -110
8:00PM (EST) 342 Hawaii -8 -110 -290 Under 74? -110
MOTOR CITY BOWL - Ford Field, Detroit, MI - ESPN
Tue 12/26 401 Middle Tenn State +10? -110 +340 Over 51 -110
7:30PM (EST) 402 Central Michigan -10? -110 -425 Under 51 -110
EMERALD BOWL - AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA - ESPN
Wed 12/27 403 Florida State +5 -110 +170 Over 40? -110
8:00PM (EST) 404 UCLA -5 -110 -200 Under 40? -110
INDEPENDENSE BOWL - Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA - ESPN
Thu 12/28 405 Oklahoma State -2 -110 -135 Over 50? -110
4:30PM (EST) 406 Alabama +2 -110 +115 Under 50? -110
TEXAS BOWL - Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX - NFL
Thu 12/28 407 Kansas State +7? -110 +255 Over 44? -110
8:00PM (EST) 408 Rutgers -7? -110 -310 Under 44? -110
HOLIDAY BOWL - Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA - ESPN
Thu 12/28 409 Texas A & M +5 -110 +175 Over 51 -110
8:00PM (EST) 410 California -5 -110 -210 Under 51 -110
MUSIC CITY BOWL - The Coliseum, Nashville, TN - ESPN
Fri 12/29 411 Kentucky +10 -110 +345 Over 57? -110
1:00PM (EST) 412 Clemson -10 -110 -430 Under 57? -110
SUN BOWL - The Coliseum, Nashville, TN - CBS
Fri 12/29 413 Missouri +3? -110 +145 Over 52? -110
2:00PM (EST) 414 Oregon State -3? -110 -165 Under 52? -110
LIBERTY BOWL - Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN - ESPN
Fri 12/29 415 Houston U +6? -110 +225 Over 55? -110
4:30PM (EST) 416 South Carolina -6? -110 -265 Under 55? -110
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL - Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, FL
Fri 12/29 417 Purdue +2 -110 +105 Over 52 -110
8:00PM (EST) 418 Maryland -2 -110 -125 Under 52 -110
INSIGHT BOWL - Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ - ESPN
Fri 12/29 419 Minnesota U +6? -110 +220 Over 65? -110
7:30PM (EST) 420 Texas Tech -6? -110 -260 Under 65? -110
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL - Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC - ESPN
Sat 12/30 423 Navy +6? -110 +210 Over 46? -110
1:00PM (EST) 424 Boston College -6? -110 -250 Under 46? -110
ALAMO BOWL - Alamodome, San Antonio, TX - ESPN
Sat 12/30 425 Iowa +11 -110 +350 Over 53 -110
4:30PM (EST) 426 Texas -11 -110 -440 Under 53 -110
PEACH BOWL - Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA - ESPN
Sat 12/30 427 Virginia Tech -2? -110 -140 Over 38 -110
8:00PM (EST) 428 Georgia +2? -110 +120 Under 38 -110
MPC COMPUTERS BOWL - Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID - ESPN
Sun 12/31 459 Nevada +3 -110 +140 Over 42? -110
7:30PM (EST) 460 Miami Florida -3 -110 -160 Under 42? -110
COTTON BOWL - Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX - ESPN
Mon 1/1 461 Nebraska +3 -110 +135 Over 44? -110
11:30AM (EST) 462 Auburn -3 -110 -155 Under 44? -110
OUTBACK BOWL - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL - ESPN
Mon 1/1 463 Penn State +4? -110 +170 Over 40? -110
11:00AM (EST) 464 Tennessee U -4? -110 -200 Under 40? -110
CAPITAL ONE BOWL - Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, FL - ABC
Mon 1/1 465 Wisconsin +1? -110 +105 Over 44? -110
1:00PM (EST) 466 Arkansas -1? -110 -125 Under 44? -110
GATOR BOWL - Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville, FL - CBS
Mon 1/1 467 Georgia Tech +7 -110 +245 Over 49 -110
1:00PM (EST) 468 West Virginia -7 -110 -290 Under 49 -110
ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA - ABC
Mon 1/1 469 Michigan pk -110 Over 47? -110
5:00PM (EST) 470 Southern Cal pk -110 Under 47? -110
FIESTA BOWL - Cardinal Stadium, Glendale, AZ - FOX
Mon 1/1 471 Boise St. +8 -110 +250 Over 50? -110
8:00PM (EST) 472 Oklahoma -8 -110 -300 Under 50? -110
ORANGE BOWL - Dolphins Stadium, Miami, FL - FOX
Tue 1/2 473 Wake Forest +9? -110 +305 Over 52 -110
8:00PM (EST) 474 Louisville -9? -110 -365 Under 52 -110
SUGAR BOWL - Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA - FOX
Wed 1/3 475 Notre Dame +8? -110 +300 Over 54? -110
8:00PM (EST) 476 LSU -8? -110 -360 Under 54? -110
INTERNATIONAL BOWL - Rogers Center, Toronto, Canada - ESPN
Sat 1/6 481 Western Michigan +8 -110 +280 Over 41 -110
12:00PM (EST) 482 Cincinnati U -8 -110 -340 Under 41 -110
GMAC BOWL - Ladd Peebles Stadium, Moblie, AL - ESPN
Sun 1/7 487 Ohio +6? -110 +230 Over 41? -110
8:00PM (EST) 488 So Mississippi -6? -110 -270 Under 41? -110
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Cardinal Stadium, Glendale, AZ - FOX
Mon 1/8 489 Florida +8 -110 +260 Over 48? -110
8:00PM (EST) 490 Ohio State -8 -110 -320 Under 48? -110

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

06/07 results

quite different than 5 years past.

pick the winner --was 22-7
those that rushed for most yards--20-12
and only 7 dogs with spread of +3 or more covered--quite diff from norm.

Those+3> that covered
Troy +205
San Jose State +165
Florida St +170
Kentucky +345
PennSt +170
Boise St +280
Florida +260

1st time since tracking that ML dogs were losing prop.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

07-08 season
Last season was 1st with small deficeit on money dogs--


This years plays--@ 5Dimes

Select #1 : College Football Memphis 12/21/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +145 for Game Select #2 : College Football Southern Mississippi 12/22/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +340 for Game Select #3 : College Football UCLA 12/22/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +205 for Game Select #4 : College Football East Carolina 12/23/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +350 for Game Select #5 : College Football Michigan State 12/28/2007 5:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +150 for Game Select #6 : College Football Houston U 12/28/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +158 for Game Select #7 : College Football Maryland 12/28/2007 8:30:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +175 for Game Select #8 : College Football Mississippi State 12/29/2007 4:30:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +135 for Game Select #9 : College Football Texas A&M 12/29/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +185 for Game Select #10 : College Football Colorado 12/30/2007 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +142 for Game Select #11 : College Football Air Force 12/31/2007 12:30:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +150 for Game Select #12 : College Football Oregon 12/31/2007 2:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +195 for Game Select #13 : College Football Fresno State 12/31/2007 2:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +185 for Game Select #14 : College Football Virginia 1/1/2008 1:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +200 for Game Select #15 : College Football Bowling Green 1/6/2008 8:00:01 PM - (EST) Money Line +175 for Game

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Will you be wagering on all of these ML Dogs??

 

[blgstocks]

gl this year dtb

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Yep already have Johnny--College foots used to be my fav sports but started wagering golf several years and quit most others sports.
Don't follow college much anymore except for bowl games--so only wagers these angles which have been pretty productive since beginning and the less I know about the teams generally--the better off I am.

I bet very modest amounts--however another angle which would allow day to day wagers and not tying funds up would be to look at cappers here who have had successful long term results on bowls and when they like the dog and points--put 1/2 wager on ML and 1/2 with the spread.

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Thanks for the reply. Best of luck.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

07-08 results
Rushing angle- declined 18-14
Pick the winner-stay same 24-6
ML dogs had 2nd season in row with small loss -after 5 years of fairly strong dominace--Will give it one more year--if negative trend continues will discontinue wagering on angle.

ML wager selection results -2.35

Memphis -1
Southern Mississippi -1
UCLA -1
East Carolina +350
Michigan State -1
Houston -1
Maryland -1
Miss St +135
Texas A&M-1
Colorado -1
Air Force-1
Oregon +195
Fresno State +190
Virginia -1
Blowling Green -1

 

[greggraffin]

money line dogs

money line dogs

if you bet 100 on every ml dog in this years bowl games, how would you ahve ended up?
thanks

 

[greggraffin]

money line dogs

money line dogs

if you bet 100 on every ml dog in this years bowl games, how would you ahve ended up?
thanks

 

[SixFive]

if you bet 100 on every ml dog in this years bowl games, how would you ahve ended up?
thanks

nevermind... misread

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

if you bet 100 on every ml dog in this years bowl games, how would you ahve ended up?
thanks

Now your making me work

 

[Nosigar]

Memphis -1
Southern Mississippi -1
UCLA -1
East Carolina +350
Michigan State -1
Houston -1
Maryland -1
Miss St +135
Texas A&M-1
Colorado -1
Air Force-1
Oregon +195
Fresno State +190
Virginia -1
Blowling Green -1

I assume that is not a typo... :SIB

 

[dawgball]

Wouldn't it be -$235.00?

 

[UGA12]

Get your ass in gear DTB. I am sure you have a little demtia going on so I will bump it for you:toast:

 

[edludes]

I am very grateful DTB for your sharing this angle,and The IE for the supporting links.The ml dogs from last year that I show(and I am uncertain of a couple of lines from last year so I am not saying this is an inclusive list,but.....Florida Atlantic Schnellenbergers beat memhis last year as ML dogs,ECU beat boise st, oregon ducks were a big dog to s fla because dixon was hurt,they killed them,Fresno st beat favored gatech by 12,kty beat fla st,not sure if kty started out as the fav,does someone else know?,michigan beat florida,but as everyone knows they aren't in one to bet against this year,west viginny beat okla by a lot,will pick n.caro as a result,also colorado st ,cmu,and maybe kty.the betting so far in the holiday bowl is for,not against oregon vs okla st so I'm looking closely at that one,may pass on betting against the ducks.definately think handicapping the bowls requires a look at what each team did last year in the bowls as much as what they did during the regular season of this year.Thanks again for a terrific angle.