MLB 2018 Season Long Thread Thru the World Series / Picks,Trends,News Etc. !!

[Cnotes53]

LEADING OFF: Verlander-Sale in ALCS, Brews try for 2-0 lead
October 13, 2018
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Saturday:

ACES ABOUND

Justin Verlander and the World Series champion Houston Astros face Red Sox lefty Chris Sale in a marquee matchup to start the AL Championship Series at Fenway Park.

The All-Stars met twice last year in AL Division Series. They started opposite each other in the opener, then both worked in relief during the middle innings of Game 4.

Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) led the AL with 290 strikeouts and beat Cleveland in the ALDS last week. Sale (12-4, 2.11) started and relieved vs. the Yankees in the ALDS.

Also familiar with each other: Red Sox manager Alex Cora and the Astros. He was Houston's bench coach last year during the team's run to its first title.

MILES AND MILES

Wade Miley was a journeyman left-hander when he signed a minor league contract with the Brewers at the start of spring training. He injured his oblique early in the season, spent a lot of time in Double-A and hoped he'd have a chance to contribute.

Miley came back, delivered and now gets to start Game 2 of the NL Championship Series as the Brewers try to take a 2-0 lead over the Dodgers at Miller Park. Hyun-Jin Ryu pitches for Los Angeles.

REMEMBER ME?

J.D. Martinez wants to thank the Astros - not get back at them - for releasing him when he was struggling. The Red Sox slugger says his growing pains in Houston taught him ''how to fail,'' a lesson he credits with transforming him into an MVP candidate who helped Boston win a team-record 108 games.

Martinez made his big league debut for Houston in 2011, driving in 28 runs during his first full month in the majors. After playing part time the next two years, he was 26 and batting .167 in the spring of 2014 when the Astros released him, preferring to give the at-bats to top prospect George Springer.

Martinez landed with Detroit that season and by 2015 he was an All-Star. He totaled 45 home runs last year with the Tigers and Arizona, then hit .330 with 43 homers and a major league-high 130 RBIs this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wkd Series - LCS Best Bets
October 12, 2018
By Bookmaker


MLB Weekend Series Prices Best Bet - LCS Edition

Having ignored the uncertainty of the final weekend of the MLB regular season and the first round of the playoffs, with the LCS Series both beginning this weekend, I thought it was best to bring back this staple piece from the MLB season. This piece ended the regular season on a high note with a +150 win on the Colorado Rockies during that second last weekend, and hopefully it hasn't been too long to carry over that momentum into the playoffs and perhaps get the World Series matchup right?

NLCS: L.A. Dodgers (-165) vs Milwaukee (+149)

The L.A. Dodgers are one half of the equation of a repeat World Series between themselves and the Astros that oddsmakers have favored and I don't really understand why. Neither the Dodgers nor Astros have home field advantage in their respective series' and that means that neither won more games than their opponent this year. I get that regular season win totals don't mean much in terms of deciphering a playoff series, but the games still have to be played out there on the field, and this line is massively disrespecting the Brewers talent level and what they've done as a team in 2018.

Sure, the Dodgers have the experience and are loaded from 1-through-25 on their playoff roster with talented guys both starting on the field and in bench roles. L.A. also has arguably the greatest pitcher of this generation in Clayton Kershaw starting Game 1 (and probably Game 5 and 7 if it goes that far) and he and this Dodgers pitching staff's great reputation is one that you can't ignore. But a -165 road favorite after how this season has gone for L.A? No thank you.

L.A. did win the season series 4-3, but two of those Dodgers wins (11-2 and 21-5) were massive blowout scores that just don't come in playoff baseball. Four of the other five meetings were decided by two runs or less ? the teams split those four games ? while Milwaukee also has a 5-2 win to their credit over L.A. That tells me that Milwaukee ? thanks largely to their phenomenal bullpen ? that close games is where they thrive, and in a NLCS, close games are to be expected.

So with home field advantage, the better, more reliable, and deadly bullpen already on Milwaukee's side, I've got to take the Brewers to be the team to get through this round and advance to their first World Series since 1982. I know L.A went out and spent, traded, and claimed whomever they could to make sure they get that one more win this year, but too many cooks in the kitchen can lead to a spoiled meal, and the balancing act manager Dave Roberts has in that regard with giving the right guys the right opportunities while keeping some significant egos in check could end up being L.A.'s unravelling here.

Best Bet: Milwaukee to win NLCS

ALCS: Houston (-131) vs Boston (+118)

I mentioned at the beginning of the NLCS preview that Milwaukee's price of a +150ish underdog made little sense to me, but it still made more sense than this number does. Boston finished the regular season with the most wins in all of baseball, beat the team with the 3rd most wins in baseball rather easily in four games, and now they are a home underdog in a seven-game series against the team with the 2nd most wins? Does a first round sweep of a suspect Cleveland team and the fact that Houston's the defending champs give them that much pull with the oddsmakers here?

I'm not sure if that's the case, but either way I'm not buying it as from a pure value standpoint alone I don't know how you can't side with Boston here. Sure, the Astros have the better pitching rotation on paper, and Boston's rotation gets a little suspect after Chris Sale, but it;s not like that wasn't the case all year long for both teams when they played against one another (Houston won season series 4-3) or just on the whole. Boston dealt with that issue quite well all year long considering they won the most games in the majors and played in the toughest AL division with another 100-win team right behind them (Tampa also had 90 wins in 2018).

Great pitching rotation or not, this Boston lineup puts pressure on opposing pitchers from 1-through-9 like we haven't seen in MLB for a few years now. Every guy in the Red Sox lineup can spray the ball all over the field with power or with placement. It's a methodology of double, after double, after double with this Boston attack, keeping the lineup moving and burying teams with those crooked numbers. Crooked numbers are tough to come by in the postseason and probably even tougher against this Houston staff. But Boston's three wins in the regular season came in Verlander, Morton, and Keuchel starts and att least two of those guys (Verlander, Keuchel) should get starts in this series. So it's not like the Red Sox hitters haven't had success against some of these studs before.

Finally, given these odds and my preference for underdogs in general, I can't ignore the fact that reigning World Series champions haven't gotten back to the Fall Classic since the Yankees did it at the turn of the century. I would guess that part of that being so rare is the idea that champions can lose their hunger to win after reaching the mountain top. In a seven-game series with the stakes as high as they are, it's tough to keep the intensity and focus level as high as it should be if the hunger to win isn't burning as strongly as it once was. It's not like we haven't seen past World Series losers make it in consecutive years (KC in 14/15, Texas in 10/11) either, as the hunger would still persist in that scenario.

So it's got to be Boston at this price in my view, as that World Series rematch that would make such a good story isn't one I'm interested in reading this year. Boston didn't win 108 games by accident this year and I'm sure word has gotten around that clubhouse about the perceived disrespect they've gotten that they are actually the underdogs in this matchup. A motivational tool like that is something I can get behind in this spot as Boston sports fans should get to watch one of their teams in yet another championship contest.

Best Bet: Boston to win ALCS

 

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 13

Houston @ Boston

Game 903-904
October 13, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Verlnder) 18.781
Boston
(Sale) 16.344
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-125
7
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+105); Over

LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee

Game 905-906
October 13, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Ryu) 19.831
Milwaukee
(Miley) 17.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
N/A




MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (106 - 59) at BOSTON (111 - 55) - 8:05 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. CHRIS SALE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 275-313 (-72.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
BOSTON is 111-55 (+34.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 88-39 (+32.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 75-35 (+23.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 42-29 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 58-24 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 37-14 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 24-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 42-15 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 38-16 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 49-28 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 240-240 (-64.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 6-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.103.
His team's record is 9-11 (-4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-10. (-3.6 units)

CHRIS SALE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SALE is 5-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 0.864.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (95 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (99 - 67) - 4:05 PM
HYUN-JIN RYU (L) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-4 (+0.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
RYU is 1-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

WADE MILEY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MILEY is 4-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.312.
His team's record is 6-8 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-8. (-2.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 13

National League
Dodgers @ Brewers (Milwaukee leads series, 1-0)
Ryu is 4-0, 0.35 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Team in his starts: 11-5, 3-3 road Ryu didn?t pitch against Milwaukee this season.
5-inning record: 10-4-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-16

Milwaukee won Miley?s last eight starts (3-0, 2.93); Miley hasn?t gotten an out past the 5th inning since Sept 4- Brewers used 7 pitchers last nite. Team in his starts: 13-4, 5-2 home Miley allowed one run in 13 IP in two starts vs the Dodgers this year.
5-inning record: 10-5-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-16

Dodgers won seven of their last nine games overall, four of last six on road. LA is in playoffs for 6th year in row; they lost 7th game of World Series LY. Dodgers? last WS title was in 1988.

Milwaukee won its last 12 games; their last loss was Sept 22. Brewers won their last seven home games- they?re in playoffs for first time since 2011- they lost Game 7 of the 1982 World Series.

American League
Houston @ Boston
Verlander is 4-0, 1.41 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 22-13, 13-2 road Verlander allowed two runs in six IP in a June 2 no-decision vs Boston.
5-inning record: 23-6-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-35

Sale is 1-0, 4.73 in his last three starts; he pitched scoreless 8th inning Tuesday in New York. Team in his starts: 19-9, 9-4 home Sale lost 7-3 in Houston June 1, allowing four runs in six IP.
5-inning record: 18-5-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-28

Houston is 11-2 in its last 13 games; they outscored Cleveland 21-6 in last series. Red Sox won four of their last five games; they scored 27 runs in 3-1 series win vs New York.

Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row; they won World Series in 2013. Astros won their first WS title LY, in their second try (?05); they?re in playoffs for third time in four years.




MLB
Weather Report

Saturday, October 13

MLB

Saturday, October 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 12 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers


Houston Astros
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Houston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Boston
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Houston's last 18 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Red Sox
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
Boston is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Houston
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 18 games when playing at home against Houston


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAD at MIL 04:09 PM

LAD -130

U 8.5


HOU at BOS 08:09 PM

BOS -121

O 7.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Dodgers edge Brewers in NLCS Game 2
October 13, 2018

MILWAUKEE (AP) Justin Turner and the Los Angeles Dodgers know all about performing in the postseason.

Backed into a tough spot Saturday, the red-headed slugger delivered once again.

Shut down for most of the afternoon, Los Angeles staged another late rally and Turner hit a two-run homer in the eighth inning to lift the Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers for a 4-3 victory that evened the NL Championship Series at a game apiece.

The high-powered Dodgers had two measly singles off Wade Miley before breaking through against one of baseball's best bullpens. After forcing the Brewers to use six relievers in Milwaukee's 6-5 victory Friday night, the NL West champions put that extended look to good use in Game 2, especially against faltering All-Star Jeremy Jeffress.

''As long as we have outs left, we know we're in the game,'' Turner said.

Milwaukee wasted a terrific performance by Miley in its first loss in three weeks, ending a 12-game winning streak that produced free burgers for its fans as part of a promotion by a local restaurant chain. Orlando Arcia and Travis Shaw homered, and Lorenzo Cain robbed David Freese of a two-run drive with a leaping grab over the wall in center .

Miley pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his second career playoff start and had two hits in his first multihit game since 2014.

''We were in really good shape with the effort that Wade gave us,'' Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. ''He pitched beautifully.''

The best-of-seven series moves to Dodger Stadium for Game 3 on Monday night. Walker Buehler pitches for Los Angeles and Jhoulys Chacin gets the ball for Milwaukee.

Miley handed a 2-0 lead over to his bullpen and Shaw tacked on a solo drive in the sixth , delighting a yellow towel-waving crowd of 43,905 at Miller Park. But that was the last run for the Brewers, and the Dodgers finished off their rally this time around after nearly taking Game 1.

Cody Bellinger got Los Angeles on the board with an RBI single in the seventh, chasing Corbin Burnes and stopping an 0-for-15 slide in the playoffs that landed him on the bench at the start of the game. Austin Barnes forced in another run with a bases-loaded walk off Jeffress, but the right-hander escaped when pinch-hitter Yasmani Grandal bounced into a double play.

The Dodgers went right back to work in the eighth. Chris Taylor reached on a leadoff single before Turner hit a long drive to left off Jeffress, admiring the ball with his bat pointed toward the sky before rounding the bases and participating in several different celebrations with his giddy teammates on his way to the dugout.

Turner bounced back after striking out a career-worst four times in Game 1.

''It felt good,'' Turner said. ''I knew it was a homer, and it's cool to run around the bases and see all your teammates going crazy, jumping up and down waiting for you.''

Jeffress also struggled in Game 1, allowing two hits while only recording one out. He was charged with two runs and six hits in 3 1/3 innings in three appearances in the Division Series against Colorado, including a blown save in the opener.

''It's intense baseball games, man,'' Jeffress said. ''They're going to be like this for the rest of the postseason. We're going to battle, they're going to battle. Just be ready.''

Los Angeles has scored eight runs against Milwaukee's bullpen, all in the seventh inning or later.

''The more you face the relievers, the easier it's going to get,'' Bellinger said.

It was Turner's seventh career playoff homer. He was co-MVP of the NLCS last year with Taylor when Los Angeles made it to the World Series for the first time since 1988.

The Dodgers are making their sixth straight appearance in the playoffs while the upstart Brewers are in the postseason for the first time since 2011. That advantage in experience seemed to pay off - especially when Turner came up with the big blow.

''He personifies everything that I believe in as a baseball player, as a professional. ... He's the glue for our club,'' manager Dave Roberts said.

Save for Yasiel Puig snapping his bat over his leg after striking out swinging with the bases loaded in the seventh, Los Angeles stayed steady as Milwaukee tried to hold on. Pedro Baez got four outs for the win, and Kenley Jansen worked the ninth for the save. Jansen broke NL MVP-favorite Christian Yelich's bat for a groundout with a runner on second for the final out.

REMEMBER WHEN

Former major league slugger Prince Fielder threw out a ceremonial first pitch. Fielder said Counsell helped him a lot when they played together in Milwaukee.

''There was one time I was thinking about bunting and he told me if I bunt, he'll punch me in the face,'' a chuckling Fielder said.

UP NEXT

Chacin had his worst start of the season at Los Angeles on Aug. 2, allowing nine runs, eight earned, and five hits in 4 1/3 innings in a 21-5 loss. The veteran right-hander is 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA in 12 career starts at Dodger Stadium. Buehler is making his second career start against Milwaukee. The rookie right-hander tossed seven innings of five-hit ball in a 1-0 loss to the visiting Brewers on July 31.


**********************


Sale, Cora make early exits for Red Sox in ALCS Game 1
October 13, 2018
By The Associated Press

BOSTON (AP) Red Sox ace Chris Sale and manager Alex Cora both made early exits in Boston's 7-2 loss to the Houston Astros in Game 1 of AL Championship Series on Saturday night.

Sale lasted just four innings, giving up two runs on one hit, four walks and a hit batter.

Cora wasn't far behind the lanky left-hander going back to the clubhouse. The rookie manager was ejected in the bottom of the fifth inning with the game tied 2-2 after arguing a called third strike on Andrew Benintendi that ended Boston's first rally of the game.

Sale opened the game with an eight-pitch walk to George Springer and struggled through the first three innings with subpar stuff and location.

Houston took advantage in the second. Sale got two quick outs, but then walked Carlos Correa, plunked Martin Maldonado on the hand with a fastball and walked Josh Reddick. Springer followed with a hard grounder past third baseman Eduardo Nunez to put Boston ahead 2-0.

Sale decided to go sleeveless despite a 48-degree first pitch, and it took too long for his fastball to heat up. His velocity has been a focus since a shoulder issue landed him on the disabled list in August. He returned in September but averaged just 90 mph in his final regular-season tuneup, well below his standard.

He jumped back up to about 95 mph in two effective outings against the Yankees in the Division Series, but was sitting a relatively sluggish 90-93 on Saturday.

His control was shaky, too, even as he perhaps took something off his fastball and slider after falling behind in counts. He threw one pitch behind Alex Bregman, and all four of his walks came in the first two innings.

Sale had just two swings and misses in the first three innings before finding a groove in the fourth. That was enough for Cora, though, who pulled Sale after 86 pitches. Sale struck out five, including Correa and Maldonado to end his outing.

The 29-year-old allowed five hits and two earned runs, striking out nine over 6 1/3 innings in his ALDS Game 1 win over Yankees. He also came on in relief during Game 4, retiring all three batters he faced during the eighth inning.

Saturday night's start harkened back to the rough outing he had in his postseason debut in Game 1 of last season's ALDS against Houston. Sale gave up seven earned runs in the five innings he pitched in that outing, yielding a pair of home runs to Jose Altuve and another to Bregman in a loss.

Sale came on in a relief appearance in Game 4 of that series as well, holding the Astros scoreless through four innings before allowing two runs in the Red Sox's 5-4 Game 4 loss as Houston wrapped up the series, 3-1.

Cora stuck around long enough to pull Sale and use Mitch Moreland as a pinch hitter in the fifth before he was tossed while standing up for Benintendi.

There were two out, two on and two runs already in when Justin Verlander threw a 98 mph fastball to Benintendi near the outside edge for strike three. Benintendi slammed his helmet and bat down and pleaded his case with plate umpire James Hoye before Red Sox coaches ran in to get between them.

Cora continued to yell from the dugout and was tossed by Hoye. Cora gave the lineup card to bench coach Ron Roenicke and walked down the tunnel into the clubhouse.

Houston took a 3-2 lead in the sixth and it remained that way until Roenicke gave the ball to Brandon Workman in the ninth. Workman gave up two homers and four runs while getting one out with closer Craig Kimbrel watching from the bullpen. Heath Hembree replaced Workman and got out of the inning. Kimbrel never got in the game.

 

[Cnotes53]

wild card/division/championship series/world series /record and best bets:


Date w-l-t % units record

10/13/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +8.95
10/12/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +11.65
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -12.45
10/08/2018 3-2-1 60.00% +1.70
10/07/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -16.80
10/06/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +9.55
10/05/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -0.50
10/04/2018 2-1-0 66.67% +5.00
10/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% +0
10/01/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +5.85

total..............21-16-2.......56.75%......+12.95


best bets:................ats.....................units ..................o/u..................units............days total

10/13/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+10.00
10/12/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00..................1 - 0................+5.00.............+10.00
10/09/2018...............0 - 0................... +0.00..................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-5.50
10/08/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.95..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............+5.45
10/07/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............-0.50
10/06/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.05..................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+4.55
10/05/2018...............0 - 3....................-15.00.................3 - 1..................+9.50.............-5.50
10/04/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+5.00
10/03/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+0.00
10/01/2018...............1 - 1....................+5.85..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.85

total.........................4 - 6....................-3.15...................13 - 5...............+37.50...........+34.35

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 6 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Steelers +2.5 (1,092)

2) Patriots -3.5 (1,004)

3) Jaguars -3 (838)

4) Bears -3 (799)

5) Colts +2.5 (773)

6) Falcons -3.5 (766)

Season record: 13-15-2

Quote of the Day
?If it was easy, everyone would be rich.?
Sean Higgs, talking about sports betting

Sunday?s quiz
Which current ACC football coach was Eli Manning?s college coach at Ole Miss?

Saturday?s quiz
Dodgers? P Clayton Kershaw was the center on his HS football team; Lions? QB Matthew Stafford was under center.

Friday?s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals beat the Houston Oilers the last time they won a playoff game, in 1990.


****************************


Sunday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Michigan State 21, Penn State 17? To paraphrase Bill Raftery, Spartans coach Mark Dantonio has onions; MSU tried a fake FG with 5:31 left, down 17-14- it didn?t work, but they got the ball back and didn?t just play for tying FG- they threw a GW TD pass with 0:19 left.

If you remember, Michigan State beat Notre Dame a few years back by scoring a TD on a fake FG in OT. You can?t play scared and be a great coach.

12) Tennessee 30, Auburn 24? Vols snapped an 11-game SEC losing streak, ending a six-game skid vs Auburn- their last win over the Tigers was in 1999.

Auburn is 1-3 in SEC play and obviously, they haven?t played Alabama yet; Auburn has fired coaches for less- they canned Gene Chizik in 2012, two years after he won a national title.

11) Virginia Tech 22, North Carolina 19? What is a quarterback? You can use all the numbers you want, but the essence of what a QB is/should be was summed up by Hokies? QB Ryan Willis, who led an 18-play, 98-yard drive that wound up with Tech scoring the game-winning TD with 0:19 left in Chapel Hill.

Willis scrambled for a first down on 4th-and-7 when their situation looked hopeless- thats what good QB?s do, whatever needs to be done.

10) Florida 37, Vanderbilt 27? Vandy was up 21-3 in 2nd quarter- Florida turned ball over three times, but Gators stormed back to win- they had 576-336 yardage edge, ran 92 plays compared to 58 for the Commodores. Gators were 12-19 on third down, Vanderbilt 3-12.

In 2nd quarter, there was war of words between two head coaches while a Vandy player was hurt; benches almost emptied. After the game, the coaches talked for 20-30 seconds and all seemed peaceful then.

9) Northwestern 34, Nebraska 31 OT? Cornhuskers? season from hell continues; they?re 0-6 for the first time ever, losing game here when they led 31-21 with 3:00 left- Northwestern tied game with 0:12 left in regulation.

Clayton Thorson threw for 455 yards for the Wildcats. Dating back to last year, Nebraska has now lost ten games in a row. Rough start to the Scott Frost era in Lincoln.

8) Maryland 34, Rutgers 7? Scarlet Knights threw 17 passes in this game; seven of them were caught, five by Maryland defenders, only two by Rutgers receivers. This is not good.

Rutgers lost its last six games (1-4 vs spread), five of them by 21+ points.

7) Upsets of the Week:
Tennessee (+14.5) 30, Auburn 24
Liberty (+9.5) 22, Troy 16
Texas Tech (+7.5) 17, TCU 14
LSU (+7) 36, Georgia 16
Kansas State (+7) 31, Oklahoma State 12

6) Eastern Michigan 28, Toledo 26? Eagles led 28-3 at the half, hung on for dear life as they snapped a 4-game losing skid- EMU?s last four games were decided by total of 11 points.

5) Central Florida 31, Memphis 30? Tigers were driving for winning FG in last minute, but after WR caught pass to the UCF 35 with 0:38 left, he strutted around for few seconds before realizing he had to line up again, because Memphis had no timeouts left. He had to sprint to other side of field and it took a few seconds.

Finally Memphis got lined up, but left tackle moved before the snap, which resulted in both a 10-second runoff and the 5-yard penalty- things unraveled from there- they never even got a FG try off.

4) Oregon 30, Washington 27 OT? Huskies missed a 37-yard FG on last play of regulation, Oregon scored TD in OT and improved to 5-1. Teams combined to go 15-31 on third down, as offenses controlled the day, while a kicker ruined Washington?s day.

3) Iowa State 30, Oklahoma State 14? ISU coach Matt Campbell makes $3.5M a year; I hope Cyclone fans are enjoying this, because Campbell is about to get a really big raise, whether it is from a bigger-$$$ school or an NFL team? this guy is really good.

I?ve never been to Iowa, but people in Ames seem happier when they win than most people when they win. Fans at Iowa State were really, really happy after this game.

2) Dodgers 4, Brewers 3? Justin Turner hit the GW homer in the 8th inning.
Astros 7, Red Sox 2? Justin Verlander allowed two hits in six IP; imagine that, a starting pitcher actually finishing the sixth inning. Revolutionary.

1) Ole Miss 37, Arkansas 33? Razorbacks led 30-17 with 8:00 left in third quarter, but let this game slip away and lost their sixth game in a row.

Rebels gained 613 yards on a rainy night in Little Rock, averaged 11.1 yds/pass attempt.

 

[Cnotes53]

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (107 - 59) at BOSTON (111 - 56) - 7:05 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-3 (+0.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.9 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. BOSTON since 1997
COLE is 2-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.080.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.4 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
PRICE is 6-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.005.
His team's record is 7-3 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-3. (+2.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 14

American League
Houston @ Boston (Houston leads series, 1-0)
Cole is 4-0, 2.70 in his last six starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Team in his starts: 25-8, 13-4 road
Cole is 1-0, 3.46 in two starts vs Boston this year.
5-inning record: 19-8-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-34

Price is 1-2, 9.00 in his last three starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Team in his starts: 22-9, 12-4 home
Price is 1-0, 3.65 in two starts vs Houston this year; he is 2-9, 5.82 in 18 career playoff games (10 starts)- the two wins were both in relief.
5-inning record: 17-8-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-31

Houston is 12-2 in its last 14 games; they won their four playoff games by combined score of 28-8. Red Sox won four of their last six games; they scored 29 runs in their last four games.

Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row; they won World Series in 2013. Astros won their first WS title LY, in their second try (?05); they?re in playoffs for third time in four years.




MLB
Weather Report

Sunday, October 14

MLB

Sunday, October 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Astros
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games
Houston is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Boston
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Houston's last 19 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Red Sox
Boston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games at home
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Boston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Houston
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Boston's last 19 games when playing at home against Houston

 

[Cnotes53]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 14


Houston @ Boston

Game 951-952
October 14, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Cole) 15.875
Boston
(Price) 19.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+105); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

LEADING OFF: Red Sox seek to clean things up vs Astros
October 14, 2018
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Sunday:

TRY AGAIN

The Red Sox send David Price to the mound for Game 2 of their AL Championship Series against Houston hoping for a bounce-back performance from the entire club. Price hasn't pitched since allowing three runs in 1 2/3 innings in a Game 2 Division Series loss to the Yankees. That dropped him to 0-9 in 10 career postseason starts, the longest such skid in major league playoff history.

Boston is coming off a lousy night all around in a 7-2 loss to Houston. Chris Sale struggled, Alex Cora was ejected, the defense had a few misplays and the offense had just three hits against Justin Verlander and a trio of relievers.

Gerrit Cole is up for the Astros. The right-hander struck out 12 over seven innings in a 3-1 win Game 2 win against Cleveland in the Division Series.

LOOK OUT!

Umpire Joe West slides from second base to first for ALCS Game 2 after getting closer to the action than he'd like in the opener. Boston catcher Christian Vazquez drilled West in the chest with a throw when Jake Marisnick stole second in the eighth. The 65-year-old crew chief appeared to be fine.

REST UP

The Brewers and Dodgers get a day to travel to Los Angeles before playing Game 3 Monday. It's a chance for Milwaukee's vaunted bullpen to recover and look for answers after an uncharacteristically lousy first couple games. Aside from lights-out lefty Josh Hader, Brewers relievers have allowed eight runs in 7 1/3 innings. That crew had the fifth-best bullpen ERA in the majors during the regular season at 3.47, including a big league-best 1.98 in September.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at BOS 07:09 PM

HOU -128

O 8.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Cole struggles in 2nd playoff start with Astros
October 14, 2018
By The Associated Press

BOSTON (AP) Gerrit Cole struggled at the beginning of his second playoff start with the Houston Astros.

By the time he recovered, it was too late. Boston was well on its way to a big win.

Cole's electric fastball was lined all over Fenway Park and he also committed a costly error in his first career appearance in the AL Championship Series, losing 7-5 to the Red Sox in Game 2 on Sunday.

One night after Justin Verlander pitched Houston to a 7-2 victory in the series opener, Cole was unable to duplicate the success of his fellow hard-throwing right-hander. The 28-year-old Cole allowed a season-high five runs and six hits - all of them on fastballs - in six innings.

Game 3 is Tuesday in Houston.

Cole went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in his first season with Houston after he was acquired in a trade with Pittsburgh, helping the World Series champion Astros return to the playoffs with a second straight AL West title.

He was terrific in the AL Division Series against Cleveland, striking out 12 while pitching seven innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 victory in Game 2. He joined Hall of Famer Tom Seaver as the only players to strike out at least 12 without walking a batter in the postseason.

He had a completely different performance against the high-scoring Red Sox.

Looking amped and jittery, Cole allowed his first run on his sixth pitch of the game. Mookie Betts drove his 3-1 pitch off the wall in center, and Andrew Benintendi followed with an RBI single.

After J.D. Martinez lined to second, Cole picked up Xander Bogaerts' bouncer in front of the mound and threw wildly to first for an error. The miscue helped set up Rafael Devers' RBI single.

Houston tried to pick up Cole with two runs in the second and third, but he was unable to hold onto the 4-2 lead.

Jackie Bradley Jr. put Boston ahead to stay with a three-run double off the Green Monster with two out in the third. Cole walked Devers on four pitches and struck out Ian Kinsler swinging before Bradley's big blow.

After Boston took its 5-4 lead, Cole struck out Christian Vazquez to end the inning and retired his next nine batters before he was lifted from just his third career start at Fenway.

Cole was 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in four career playoff starts coming into the night.

 

[Cnotes53]

Red Sox ace Chris Sale hospitalized with stomach illness
October 14, 2018
By The Associated Press

BOSTON (AP) The Boston Red Sox say ace left-hander Chris Sale has a stomach illness and will spend the night in the hospital.

The Red Sox made the announcement Sunday night in the seventh inning of Game 2 of the AL Championship Series against Houston.

Boston said Sale reported the illness earlier in the day and was admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital. He will be held overnight for observation.

The 29-yaer-old Sale struggled with his control in Boston's 7-2 loss to the Astros in the series opener Saturday night. He allowed two runs with four walks and a hit batter in four innings despite giving up just one hit.

Sale picked up the win in Game 1 of the AL Division Series against the Yankees when he pitched into the sixth inning. He also threw a perfect eighth inning in the clincher at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.

Sale missed nearly six weeks, making just one start, from late July into September with mild left shoulder inflammation before he worked his way back into the rotation with four starts in September.

 

[Cnotes53]

LEADING OFF: Yelich, Brewers face Dodgers, ALCS has day off
October 14, 2018
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Monday:

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN'

Milwaukee Brewers star Christian Yelich is heading home for Game 3 of the NL Championship Series with the matchup against the Dodgers tied at 1-all. Yelich, the favorite for NL MVP, was born in Thousand Oaks, California, and went to Westlake High School before he was selected by the Marlins in the first round of the 2010 draft. The 26-year-old Yelich is a .326 hitter with six homers and 17 RBIs in 37 career games against the Dodgers, but he went 1 for 8 with three strikeouts in the first two games of the series against the NL West champions.

DOING BETTER?

The Red Sox will see how ace Chris Sale is feeling after a stomach illness sent him to the hospital. The team said Sale was spending the night at Massachusetts General Hospital for observation after being admitted earlier Sunday.

Boston and the Astros have a day off before the AL Division resumes in Houston on Tuesday with the clubs tied at one game each.

The 29-year-old Sale struggled with his control in Boston's 7-2 loss in the opener Saturday night. He missed nearly six weeks from late July into September with mild left shoulder inflammation.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Milwaukee right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who gets the ball in Game 3 of the NLCS, is 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last three starts going back to the regular season, but he hasn't fared very well in Los Angeles. Chacin had his worst start of the season at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 2, allowing nine runs, eight earned, and five hits in 4 1/3 innings in a 21-5 loss. He is 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA in 12 career starts at Los Angeles.

''I'm just going to go out, just try to give my team a chance to win the game and just have fun,'' Chacin said.

NICE JOB

The Braves might be set to announce a new contract for manager Brian Snitker. General manager Alex Anthopoulos is going to address the media, and Snitker's future is expected to be a main topic.

Snitker, who turns 63 on Wednesday, guided the Braves to a surprising NL East title with a 90-72 record. A longtime member of the Atlanta organization, he took over as manager during the 2016 seasons after Fredi Gonzalez was fired.

 

[Cnotes53]

wild card/division/championship series/world series /record and best bets:

Date w-l-t % units record

10/14/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -1.40
10/13/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +8.95
10/12/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +11.65
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -12.45
10/08/2018 3-2-1 60.00% +1.70
10/07/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -16.80
10/06/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +9.55
10/05/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -0.50
10/04/2018 2-1-0 66.67% +5.00
10/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% +0
10/01/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +5.85

total..............22-17-2.......56.41%......+11.55


best bets:................ats.....................units ..................o/u..................units............days total

10/14/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+5.00
10/13/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+10.00
10/12/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00..................1 - 0................+5.00.............+10.00
10/09/2018...............0 - 0................... +0.00..................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-5.50
10/08/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.95..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............+5.45
10/07/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............-0.50
10/06/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.05..................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+4.55
10/05/2018...............0 - 3....................-15.00.................3 - 1..................+9.50.............-5.50
10/04/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+5.00
10/03/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+0.00
10/01/2018...............1 - 1....................+5.85..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.85

total.........................4 - 6....................-3.15...................14 - 5...............+42.50...........+39.35

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 6 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Steelers +2.5 (1,092)- W

2) Patriots -3.5 (1,004)- L

3) Jaguars -3 (838)- L

4) Bears -3 (799)- L

5) Colts +2.5 (773)- L

6) Falcons -3.5 (766)- W

Season record: 15-19-2


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Patriots 43, Chiefs 40? This was 37th game in NFL history where losing team scored 40+ points; three of those games have been this year. Kansas City scored 31 points in the second half and still lost. Chiefs covered seven of last 10 games as road underdogs; they?re 6-0 vs spread this season. New England scored 38-38-43 points in its last three games.

Steelers 28, Bengals 21? Marvin Lewis has coached the Bengals for 16 years; Pittsburgh is 16-2 in Cincinnati during that time (two playoff games). Antonio Brown scored the winning TD with 0:10 left on a 31-yard pass from Roethlisberger, who threw for 369 yards. Steelers are 10-6-1 vs spread in last 16 games as road dogs. Bengals play in Kansas City Sunday; they?ve lost their last five Sunday night games.

Dolphins 31, Bears 28 OT? Chicago?s three road games were decided by total of six points; Miami?s backup QB Brock Osweiler emerged from obscurity to throw for 380 yards as Dolphins survived a goal line fumble in OT to improve to 4-2. Osweiler is a surprising 4-0 in OT games; his overall career record is 14-12.

Bears turned ball over twice in the red zone, missed a 52-yard FG in OT.

Chase Daniel is the Bears? backup QB; he?s 32 and has been in the NFL for nine years- the guy has started two NFL games, but has banked $28,304,317. He?s completed 51 of 78 passes, with one TD, one INT in his career, and he?s made $28M+. Its good to be him.

Falcons 34, Buccaneers 29? Tampa Bay outgained Atlanta 512-416 but lost its third game in a row, allowing 38 ppg. Reality for Bucs? coach Dirk Koetter is that he?s probably going to get fired unless his team turns things around soon? the face of the franchise is a QB who was suspended three games for groping a Uber driver, and they went 2-1 while he was out. No bueno.

Here is a breakdown of Atlanta?s offense:
2 road games, both on grass fields: 22 drives, three TD?s, 14.5 ppg
4 home games, all indoors on turf: 40 drives, 17 TD?s, 34.5 ppg

Texans 20, Bills 13? Buffalo backup QB Nathan Peterman is the worst NFL QB I?ve seen since Jerry Golsteyn played for four teams from 1977-83, going 2-7 as a starter. Golsteyn threw two career TD passes, 13 INT?s, but Peterman may be worse? he threw a pick-6 in this game with 1:30 left as Texans have now won consecutive games by 3-3-7 points after an 0-3 start.

Both teams scored one offensive TD in this game, on drives of 32-29 yards. Buffalo threw for 129 yards, giving them a total of 295 PY in their last three games. Deshaun Watson got sacked seven times; if the Texans don?t improve their pass blocking, Watson won?t last much longer.

Redskins 23, Panthers 17? Since 2015, Redskins are now 16-7 vs spread coming off a loss; they had a 14-yard edge in field position in this game, converted on 7-16 3rd down plays, compared to 3-9 for Carolina. Washington allowed 9-14-17 points in its wins, 24-31 in its losses. Panthers are 3-0 at home, 0-2 on the road; they threw 40 passes, ran ball only 18 times in this game.

Rams 23, Broncos 20? Denver is first team since the ?78 Buffalo Bills to give up 270+ rushing yards in consecutive games; in today?s pass-happy era, thats terrible. This was a hard-hitting game; lot of players limped off on both sides.

On a cold day in Denver where the snow mostly stopped before the game, Rams ran the ball down the Broncos? throats when it mattered most, on a 13-play, 72-yard drive that took 5:39 off the clock and ended with a FG that gave LA an insurmountable 23-13 lead.

Jared Goff celebrated his 24th birthday with a win, but looked uncomfortable in sub-freezing temps; Rams play in Chicago December 9.

Minnesota 27, Arizona 17? Cardinals are 3-0-1 vs spread in their last four games; they scored six TDs in last two games, but two of them are scored by their defense. Minnesota ran ball for 185 yards here and outgained Arizona, 411-269. Redbirds lost last nine visits to the Twin Cities; their last win here was in 1977, the Don Coryell era.

NFL has seven new head coaches this year; they?re a combined 12-28 so far- three of those seven teams were .500 or better LY- Tennessee was in the damn playoffs, and they fired their coach.

Chargers 38, Browns 14? Quietly, the Chargers are 4-2, with losses to Rams/Chiefs, who are a combined 11-1. Bolts ran ball for 246 yards and averaged 9.2 yds/pass attempt- they had seven plays of 20+ yards, five of them on first down.

Chargers are 2-0 outside California, winning/covering in Buffalo/Cleveland- they like Lake Erie, but coach Anthony Lynn mustn?t like kickers- Sunday he used his 7th different kicker in his 22 games as a head coach.

Jets 42, Colts 34? Gang Green scored 48-34-42 points in their two wins, 12-17-12 in their losses; Jet fans have to be fired up that they?ve scored 34+ points three times already with a rookie QB under center. Under Bowles, Jets are 17-9-1 vs spread at home.

Andrew Luck threw for 301 yards and four TD?s, but he doesn?t get much help; on their second offensive play, Indy tried a screen pass that any high school team could execute, but instead it bounced off the Colts? receiver and the Jets had an easy pick-6 to start their day with.

Seahawks 27, Raiders 3? If I owned an NFL team and was paying my coach $100M over the next 10 years (yikes!!!), I?d expect more than the sorry performances the Raiders have been producing, especially since the last coach was 12-4 two years ago.

Seattle ran ball for 171-190-155 yards in its last three games; they?ve won three of last four games and evened their record at 3-3. Oakland is 1-6-1 vs spread in its last eight pre-bye games.

The last six NFL games in England/Mexico were won by an average of 26 points (32-6).

Cowboys 40, Jaguars 7? Jacksonville?s uniforms looked like the old Memphis Maniax from the XFL; thats not a compliment, and their play was uglier than their uniforms. In their last three games, Jaguars are minus-8 in turnover ratio- not good.

Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road; they scored four TD?s on 11 drives, after scoring total of three TD?s on 31 drives in previous three games. Cowboys had a 12-yard advantage in field position. Jaguars never had a snap in the Dallas red zone.

Ravens 21, Titans 0? Not often an NFL team gets 11 sacks in a game, but Baltimore did here. while Tennessee had zero sacks. Total yardage in this ugly game was 361-106; Tennessee had only seven first downs, was 1-10 on 3rd down and ran only 40 plays- Baltimore ran 72.

Only once in six games has Tennessee scored more than six points in the first half; 12-20-2 in last 34 games where spread was three or fewer points.

 

[Cnotes53]

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 15

Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers

Game 953-954
October 15, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Chacin) 16.638
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 20.192
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-170
7
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-170); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (100 - 68) at LA DODGERS (96 - 73) - 7:35 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-5 (+0.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.6 Units)

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
CHACIN is 11-9 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.528.
His team's record is 14-11 (+4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-9. (+5.1 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BUEHLER is 0-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 15

National League
Brewers @ Dodgers (Series tied, 1-1)
Chacin is 2-0, 1.15 in his last three starts, but didn?t finish 6th inning in any of them; under is 5-1 in his last six. Team in his starts: 24-12, 15-7 road Chacin gave up nine runs in 4.1 IP in a 21-5 loss in LA on August 2.
5-inning record: 18-12-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-36

Buehler is 1-0, 3.42 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Team in his starts: 14-10, 9-3 home
5-inning record: 14-6-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-24

Dodgers won eight of their last ten games overall, eight of last nine at home. LA is in playoffs for 6th year in row; they lost 7th game of World Series LY. Dodgers? last WS title was in 1988.

Milwaukee won 12 of its last 13 games; they?ve won six in a row on the road. Brewers are in playoffs for first time since 2011- they lost Game 7 of the 1982 World Series.




MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 15

MLB

Monday, October 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
LA Dodgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
LA Dodgers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

 

[Cnotes53]

wild card/division/championship series/world series /record and best bets:

Date w-l-t % units record

10/14/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -1.40
10/13/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +8.95
10/12/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +11.65
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -12.45
10/08/2018 3-2-1 60.00% +1.70
10/07/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -16.80
10/06/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +9.55
10/05/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -0.50
10/04/2018 2-1-0 66.67% +5.00
10/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% +0
10/01/2018 2-1-1 66.67% +5.85

total..............22-17-2.......56.41%......+11.55


best bets:................ats.....................units ..................o/u..................units............days total

10/14/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+5.00
10/13/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00.................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+10.00
10/12/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.00..................1 - 0................+5.00.............+10.00
10/09/2018...............0 - 0................... +0.00..................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-5.50
10/08/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.95..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............+5.45
10/07/2018...............0 - 0....................+0.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50..............-0.50
10/06/2018...............1 - 0....................+5.05..................1 - 1..................-0.50.............+4.55
10/05/2018...............0 - 3....................-15.00.................3 - 1..................+9.50.............-5.50
10/04/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................2 - 0.................+10.00...........+5.00
10/03/2018...............0 - 1.....................-5.00..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+0.00
10/01/2018...............1 - 1....................+5.85..................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.85

total.........................4 - 6....................-3.15...................14 - 5...............+42.50...........+39.35

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 15
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at LAD 07:39 PM

MIL +154

U 7.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Grandal's woes, quiet LA bats doom Dodgers in NLCS Game 3
October 15, 2018
By The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) Of all the chants that could have emanated from the Dodger Stadium stands during the eighth inning of Game 3 of the NLCS, ''We want Austin!'' was not exactly the most likely.

But after Los Angeles catcher Yasmani Grandal committed his third passed ball of the series Monday night, the voices of exasperated fans pleading for his unsung backup, Austin Barnes, improbably echoed through Chavez Ravine.

And when Grandal struck out on three pitches with the bases loaded in the ninth inning of the Dodgers' 4-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, he only heard boos.

The fans' vocal disappointment was mostly a measure of their dissatisfaction with Grandal, who is having a miserable postseason in every aspect. The veteran catcher dropped to 3 for 22 in the playoffs with 10 strikeouts despite a popup that turned into a ground-rule double in Game 3.

But the unlikely chant for his backup also reflected the big-budget Dodgers' desperate frustration with their own inability to seize the important moments near the halfway point of this series.

Game 3 was full of those missed moments, and it pushed the defending NL champions halfway to elimination.

Game 4 is Tuesday night.

Dodger Stadium, normally a cauldron of excitement in October, was just as quiet as the Los Angeles bats facing Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers' deep bullpen - except when it was booing the Dodgers. LA went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position, struck out 14 times and managed just five hits.

The fans are thoroughly dissatisfied with Grandal, who is having a postseason to forget - on the precipice of free agency, no less. The veteran made two more defensive miscues after committing two errors and two passed balls in Game 1.

Grandal's passed ball in the eighth drew the fans' greatest ire, even though happened after the Dodgers already trailed by four runs. Grandal has tied the big-league record for the most passed balls in a playoff series, sharing it with four other catchers.

Immediately after Game 3, manager Dave Roberts said Barnes will start Game 4.

''(Grandal) had a tough night,'' Roberts said.

Barnes was a surprise playoff contributor for the Dodgers last October, supplanting Grandal in the lineup during LA's run to the World Series before Grandal reclaimed his job this season. Barnes went 0 for 3 and drew a bases-loaded walk in Game 2 in Milwaukee.

Along with his batting woes and his latest passed ball, Grandal also failed to control a wild pitch by Walker Buehler in the sixth inning, allowing Travis Shaw to score the Brewers' second run from third base.

Shaw was only on third because center fielder Cody Bellinger appeared to misjudge Shaw's long fly, allowing it to carom off the wall for a triple that probably could have been the third out of the inning.

And Buehler was still in the game because Roberts attempted to get some extra innings from his young starter instead of employing his customary quick hook.

None of those mistakes and debatable decisions was individually decisive. Add them all together, along with the Dodgers' inability to seize any moments of their own, and LA is down 2-1.

Roberts' decision to trust Buehler ultimately wasn't decisive, since the Brewers got the only run they needed in the first inning.

Buehler largely pitched well during seven innings of five-hit ball, but he yielded three runs in his final two innings - including a two-run homer in the seventh to the short porch in right by Orlando Arcia, who hit three homers in the entire regular season followed by three more in the playoffs.

The Dodgers finally showed life in the ninth, getting two hits and Yasiel Puig's one-out walk to load the bases. But Grandal and pinch-hitter Brian Dozier struck out, and the Dodger Stadium crowd made almost no noise.