Money Management Out The Window...
- Thread starter IE
- Start date
Arizona @ Seattle
Open: Seattle -6.5
Current: Seattle -6.5
Net YPP Line: Seattle -9.5
Money line: 1.37 (73% implied probability)
I have been waiting for the right opportunity to really load up against this Cardinals team and this is absolutely the best spot I am going to find.
I will go down the checklist one item at a time and break down how this game checks all my boxes.
#1. Expected wins. Betting a under-performing team vs. an over performing team.
At the moment, the Cardinals are nearly 3 wins above their expectation based on points for and against. No team has outperformed their expectations more through 10 games of the regular season that I remember in recent history. Seattle, nearly a game under.
Check.
#2. Getting in at a good price vs. the market.
Somehow, and I would never imagine I?d be saying this, but our customers have backed the visiting team more than the Seahawks in CenturyLink Field. The biggest home field advantage in the league at 5 points added to the spread has been the stopping point for public money in the past couple of seasons. Our customers have bet $3 on the Cardinals for each $1 on the Seahawks. That is the main reason for this game staying short of the key number 7. Fantastic price at Seattle -7.
Check.
#3. Favorable Yards per Play differential.
Current market price is Seattle -6.5. Net Yards Per Play has Seattle at getting 3.5 points and the Cardinals giving up 1 point, for a total of Seattle -4.5. Adding in home field, the Net Yards Per Play price is Seattle -9.5. That is a full field goal above the current market price.
Check.
#4. Efficiency Ratings
Seattle, 2nd most efficient offense vs. Arizona, 32nd most efficient defense.
Arizona, 29th most efficient offense vs. Seattle, 6th most efficient defense.
Check. Check. Check.
#5. Favorable spot.
Two sides to this one.
First, there is nothing to lead me to believe we don?t see the best game Seattle has played all season this Sunday. This is an absolute must win game to keep their playoff hopes alive and well. San Francisco has a lay-up at home with Washington which will surely put them at 7-4, meaning if the Seahawks win at home, they will be tied for 2nd sitting two games back of Arizona with five games to play. A loss means there is a four game gap, and they will be in a big need of help.
Second, how can anyone expect big things from Drew Stanton? He has not seen action away from home since Week 5 of the NFL season. That was also the only loss the Cardinals have had all season at Denver. He went 11/26 for 118 yards before being knocked out of the game. His only other game on the road was at New York in Week 2 when he went 14/29 for 167 yards. Neither game saw him throw a touchdown.
This game has the makings of an absolute blowout.
Bet on Seattle at 1.37 for $1998.55 to win $739.46
Open: Seattle -6.5
Current: Seattle -6.5
Net YPP Line: Seattle -9.5
Money line: 1.37 (73% implied probability)
I have been waiting for the right opportunity to really load up against this Cardinals team and this is absolutely the best spot I am going to find.
I will go down the checklist one item at a time and break down how this game checks all my boxes.
#1. Expected wins. Betting a under-performing team vs. an over performing team.
At the moment, the Cardinals are nearly 3 wins above their expectation based on points for and against. No team has outperformed their expectations more through 10 games of the regular season that I remember in recent history. Seattle, nearly a game under.
Check.
#2. Getting in at a good price vs. the market.
Somehow, and I would never imagine I?d be saying this, but our customers have backed the visiting team more than the Seahawks in CenturyLink Field. The biggest home field advantage in the league at 5 points added to the spread has been the stopping point for public money in the past couple of seasons. Our customers have bet $3 on the Cardinals for each $1 on the Seahawks. That is the main reason for this game staying short of the key number 7. Fantastic price at Seattle -7.
Check.
#3. Favorable Yards per Play differential.
Current market price is Seattle -6.5. Net Yards Per Play has Seattle at getting 3.5 points and the Cardinals giving up 1 point, for a total of Seattle -4.5. Adding in home field, the Net Yards Per Play price is Seattle -9.5. That is a full field goal above the current market price.
Check.
#4. Efficiency Ratings
Seattle, 2nd most efficient offense vs. Arizona, 32nd most efficient defense.
Arizona, 29th most efficient offense vs. Seattle, 6th most efficient defense.
Check. Check. Check.
#5. Favorable spot.
Two sides to this one.
First, there is nothing to lead me to believe we don?t see the best game Seattle has played all season this Sunday. This is an absolute must win game to keep their playoff hopes alive and well. San Francisco has a lay-up at home with Washington which will surely put them at 7-4, meaning if the Seahawks win at home, they will be tied for 2nd sitting two games back of Arizona with five games to play. A loss means there is a four game gap, and they will be in a big need of help.
Second, how can anyone expect big things from Drew Stanton? He has not seen action away from home since Week 5 of the NFL season. That was also the only loss the Cardinals have had all season at Denver. He went 11/26 for 118 yards before being knocked out of the game. His only other game on the road was at New York in Week 2 when he went 14/29 for 167 yards. Neither game saw him throw a touchdown.
This game has the makings of an absolute blowout.
Bet on Seattle at 1.37 for $1998.55 to win $739.46
I'm the biggest Skins fan so I'll be cheering it in for you. :0008
the skins are a red hot mess that I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. The OLine is banged up and the reserves are pathetic . Seems to me like the team played harder for cousins and McCoy . Reports here in redskin land are RG3 has alienated himself from the locker room and after the post-game interview last week Id have to say that it's true.
Britt McHenry (smokin hot) former local reporter now a ESPN reporter brought this story forward about 3-4 weeks ago. I'd say it's a disaster here in the nations capital.
Best of luck
the skins are a red hot mess that I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. The OLine is banged up and the reserves are pathetic . Seems to me like the team played harder for cousins and McCoy . Reports here in redskin land are RG3 has alienated himself from the locker room and after the post-game interview last week Id have to say that it's true.
Britt McHenry (smokin hot) former local reporter now a ESPN reporter brought this story forward about 3-4 weeks ago. I'd say it's a disaster here in the nations capital.
Best of luck
